House Yronwood Posted March 6, 2008 Share Posted March 6, 2008 Seeing Tyrell...... 1) I didn't like that he rejected my plan of randomly killing a convert suspect. Bolton was amonst these players on the kill list. 2) He also was afraid of the ninja. 3) His reaction to my 'reveal' has been a bit strange IMO: Wow... you're for serious Tully? ...this has got to be the weirdest reveal I've ever seen. Er, are you are for serious? Could be a stunned FM, could be a cultist who had to readjust his strategy if my claim was serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Yronwood Posted March 6, 2008 Share Posted March 6, 2008 I try to analyze last nights convert choice, assuming that the cult thought that my claim was for real (Mexal seemed to be somewhat convinced). This means that: 1) They thought that there was most likely only on FM partner out there 2) They took my threat on Arryn for real 3) They took my plan to kill one of Baratheon, Dayne or Martell randomly for real. 4) They looked for possible connections. In conclusion they only had two choices 1) Convert Reed 2) Convert one of Blackwood, Crakehall, Frey, Stark, Swann, Tyrell or Westerling The first option would be very bold. I doubt the remaining cultist did that, if not one of the cultists has been the priest himself. Hence they should have chosen the second option. From their POV there was only one FM in the pool, so they had a pretty good bchance to convert an innocent. From the players in that pool, Blackwood has been the one who has been the most agreeable to me. They possibly didn't want to recruit him because of that. I have to check myself which interactions I had with the remaining six players. Not too much, I'm afraid, since I was attacking Bolton and Baratheon for two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Yronwood Posted March 6, 2008 Share Posted March 6, 2008 Ok, and here comes the paranoid outsider theory. It is possible, but unlikely. The good thing is that the FM know if it's true. Question to the FM: Did you try to kill someone else than Manderly on night 2, who was not the person that you targeted on night 1? If your answer is yes, then Bolton probably didn't lie about his role. He was a healer-priest and healed his partner on night 2. On night 3 the remaining cultist converted Reed, because he could be sure that Reed had no protection. So, if your answer is yes, you should try to kill the person that you couldn't kill on night 2. If this is indeed a cultist, we have to lynch Reed tomorrow. If your answer is no, then just forget all that I said in this post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Reed Posted March 6, 2008 Share Posted March 6, 2008 Well, I'm not sure it will work but I'd like to try and accelerate this a bit if possible. This game has really slowed down today. I know that always happens as we reach the end, but....it's not the end. We're on day 4, and we still have 12 players left. Let's please keep the game active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Payne Posted March 6, 2008 Share Posted March 6, 2008 This game has really slowed down today. I know that always happens as we reach the end, but....it's not the end. We're on day 4, and we still have 12 players left. Let's please keep the game active. Also remember that "operation: Gotta catch em all" implicated at least 1/2 of the active players I suppose at some point I will respond and actually defend myself, as long as it doesn't turn into a 30 page argument. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Velaryon Posted March 6, 2008 Share Posted March 6, 2008 Sorry to dissapoint you, but i have no role to reveal, even if you do decide to put pressure on. Not only that, but i'm off to bed, then a busy day at work.... So the pressure won't be all that pressurising after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Frey Posted March 6, 2008 Share Posted March 6, 2008 No, it's not the end, but it feels like it should be. I'm surprised the board hasn't exploded from this game alone. Currently I see what Reed's saying about Crakehall. I also see what Tully is saying about Reed (i.e Bolton may have been the P/D so no fear of the block) I'd like to re-read a bit before casting a vote. I know this is not speeding things along, but hey - I got things to do. I'll get back as soon I can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Frey Posted March 6, 2008 Share Posted March 6, 2008 Whoa - people are popping out of the woodworks now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Ashford Posted March 6, 2008 Share Posted March 6, 2008 Whoa - people are popping out of the woodworks now Me and all my invisible buddies, yeah. I follow the general idea of Reed's case on Crakehall. I dunno if it convinces me of anything though. I've had my own suspicions, but it's all meta, and I hardly want to rely on meta. I want to reread Frey, but I haven't a clue when I'll find the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Dondarrion Posted March 7, 2008 Author Share Posted March 7, 2008 It is day 4. 12 players remain: Arryn, Baratheon, Blackwood, Crakehall, Dayne, Frey, Reed, Stark, Swann, Tully, Tyrell, Westerling. 7 votes are needed for a conviction or 6 to go to night. 3 votes for Crakehall (Reed, Blackwood, Swann) 2 votes for Tyrell (Westerling, Stark) 2 votes for Westerling (Tully, Baratheon) 5 players have not voted: Arryn, Crakehall, Dayne, Frey, Tyrell. You got time... lots of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magic Mirror Posted March 7, 2008 Share Posted March 7, 2008 I am back for the evening. I like the information on Crakehall. It's hard when we get to this point in the game where anyone that was innocent yesterday, may not be today While I understand why you were asking about the BP Reed, I really don't think people should answer that question. The Cult would love a recruit that at least waste a night kill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Reed Posted March 7, 2008 Share Posted March 7, 2008 While I understand why you were asking about the BP Reed, I really don't think people should answer that question. The Cult would love a recruit that at least waste a night kill. That was Tully, not me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magic Mirror Posted March 7, 2008 Share Posted March 7, 2008 That was Tully, not me. Sorry. I think I am just fixated on you Do you really not find Tully's behavior suspicious? I can't help think he derailed the first attempt on Bolton and almost did the second one as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Payne Posted March 7, 2008 Share Posted March 7, 2008 Sorry. I think I am just fixated on you Do you really not find Tully's behavior suspicious? I can't help think he derailed the first attempt on Bolton and almost did the second one as well. Would the OC have revealed as FM? Personally, I doubt it. He could have been converted last night, if the cult thought he was lying about being an FM, but...eh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magic Mirror Posted March 7, 2008 Share Posted March 7, 2008 Would the OC have revealed as FM? Personally, I doubt it. He could have been converted last night, if the cult thought he was lying about being an FM, but...eh. That is where I have my doubts. He ran a huge risk claiming FM betting the FM wouldn't kill him for it. I guess that is the only thing that keeps me from seriously pursuing him right now. eta: but damn, he can be a little crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Payne Posted March 7, 2008 Share Posted March 7, 2008 So that's it. To summarize: 1) He leaves Bolton off of his first convert suspect list. I'm not going to use my internet issues as a defense. The first post I made with a ranking list I gave the three assumptions I was working off of. I thought the OC would want a strong player who had a small to mid amount of suspicion on them. Tully, Martel, and Frey all had at some point during day one been either voted for/suspected, or able to be linked to being an FM. I was also of the opinion that I could not clear Reed, because a risk taking OC could possibly go after him knowing he was the likely heal. Baratheon and Bolton were two people I felt good about on Day 1 because of how they acted in regards to the Greyjoy lynch, and were people I would have killed night 1 if I were the killer. Therefore, I was not thinking they would be good conversion choices. 2) When questioned, he backtracks places Bolton on tier 3 of his convert suspect list. When you questioned me on it, I rethought my position and agreed they should probably be on the list somewhere around Reed, mostly because outguessing other players isn't something I've ever proven good at. 3) For a long time, he has almost everyone who was a strong, aggressive player on day 1 higher on his convert suspect list than Bolton. I guess this is true. 4) He says that the OC might have gone role-hunting, and he acknowledges that Bolton was hiding his alt on day 1. He fails to connect the two points and come to the conclusion that Bolton may have been converted if the OC felt his attempt to hide his alt was indicative of having a role. I did not fail to connect the two. I said that is the only point that would move him up higher on my list. 5) After reading my case, he says he suspects Bolton. But he spends all of his time going after Frey. Would it really have been helpful for me to sit there grilling him as well, when there were already at least 10 pages of Bolton crap? 6) Later, he continues to say he suspects Bolton. But he tries to vote off Baratheon instead. At the time, I said I was going to vote for whoever was compromised on. The compromise that was in front of us was Baratheon. I didn't ignore your question about why we were going after Baratheon, because I wasn't the one who made that decision. Also, when I listened to Baratheon's defense, I was one of the first people to back off of the lynch. 7) He never actually votes for Bolton. This is also true. The only explanation I can offer is that I wasn't into playing. Also, I was slightly taken aback at how quickly the train flipped, and wasn't sure what to think about the healer/priest reveal. And then he was dead. And then he came up cult. So that's why he looks like a possible OC. Then you have to add in that he makes sense for a convert. I'll put that in my next post. Yes, I do look like a possible OC. I won't deny that. However, I will be adamant in the fact that I do not make sense for a convert last night. So looking at your earlier lists for possible OC, and possible convert. For now, my OC suspect list is - Tier 1 - Tyrell, Swann, Crakehall Tier 2 - Blackwood, Stark, Westerling Tier 3 - Frey, Dayne So my revised convert suspect list is - Tier 1 - Frey, Crakehall, Arryn Tier 2 - Stark Tier 3 - Swann, Westerling, Blackwood, Tyrell I really think I should be moved down the convert suspect list. and we should go after the smaller pool of Frey and Arryn. If whoever we pick comes up innocent, the FM should kill me to double dip. That would leave a very small convert pool and would reduce the OC pool as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Wythers Posted March 7, 2008 Share Posted March 7, 2008 Alright, I'd like to hear more from Frey and see what they think before we end the day (I'm sure this won't be a problem, but in case there is an act of god and we speed up I figure I'll mention it). Of course, I'd like to hear more from Dayne, Tyrell, Westerling, and others. I think as of right now our best choices of lynching are Westerling, Crakehall, and Swann. I think Swann can get bumped up because he says he has no role to reveal, thus isn't FM. Choose one of these three to lynch and let's roll is my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Frey Posted March 7, 2008 Share Posted March 7, 2008 Why do you not make sense as a convert, Crake? You showed you were interested and involved player who could think for themselves. Is it because you said you were not interested in the game anymore? I never thought you would drop out. And even if your presence dropped way off, why wouldn't a cultist want a partner that will stay out of the spotlight and help him plan behind the scenes? How hard have we gone after the low posters? I don't see why you're a poor convert choice. Well, that and the fact that I think Arryn was a risk to convert and that leaves me on Reed's tier 1 all by myself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Frey Posted March 7, 2008 Share Posted March 7, 2008 Isn't Westerling up for a mod kill again soon? or did I miss a line from him? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Dayne Posted March 7, 2008 Share Posted March 7, 2008 Alright, I'd like to hear more from Frey and see what they think before we end the day (I'm sure this won't be a problem, but in case there is an act of god and we speed up I figure I'll mention it). Of course, I'd like to hear more from Dayne, Tyrell, Westerling, and others. I think as of right now our best choices of lynching are Westerling, Crakehall, and Swann. I think Swann can get bumped up because he says he has no role to reveal, thus isn't FM. Choose one of these three to lynch and let's roll is my opinion. as theres plenty of time, ill save my thoughts until tomorrow, as theres far more stuff i want to do irl right now (lots of games to play, big release coming up sunday, have to get ready for that) than mafia, to be honest. dont worry, ill be in before the end of the day with some manner of cohesive post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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