House Wythers Posted March 6, 2008 Share Posted March 6, 2008 Ok, looking at the time when I was in danger and it was nearly over for me...votes were: 4 votes for Dayne (Martell, Westerling, Tyrell) 4 votes for Bolton (Reed, Blackwood, Frey, Stark) 6 vote for Baratheon (Tully, Arryn, Bolton, Dayne, Crakehall, Swann) Honestly, I am tempted to clear Blackwood, Frey, and Stark of being OC. I don't think at that time it would have been that difficult or unpopular to put their votes on me and just ask that we end the day. Of the people on my lynch: Tully is Tully Arryn is the first to remove vote to "give me time because they think I am innocent". Thanks by the way. I hope you didn't get converted last night. Bolton is cult. Dayne is..?? was not converted last night at least. OC maybe? Dayne did vote the hammer on Bolton. Could still be OC but unlikely. Crakehall has his vote in a place that doesn't really make me happy, number five. However, Crakehall removes his vote agreeing with some of my defense. Not the OC IMO. Still could have been converted. Finally we have Swann, I outlined their posts earlier and they don't look good cultist-wise. Unfortunately, I'm not sure they would be a good convert, but they absolutely could be OC. Then on the Dayne lynch: Martell is a dead innocent. Then we have Westerling and Tyrell. Tyrell's vote was from Swann to Dayne (Says he didn't want to lynch either of us) long before the whole switching of mobs nonsense and Westerling voted Dayne long before as well. I really hope that this post doesn't mean that Tyrell converted Reed. If he did that plus posting this into the thread, not only Reed will be very angry. Why does this point to converting Reed and should we test out Tyrell today or count on the FM tonight? I really don't like counting on the FM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Ashford Posted March 6, 2008 Share Posted March 6, 2008 Arryn, I don't want to make this a huge critc, but IMO you should have waited one more night. On night 3 you had two less suspects, and you could have revealed and told the FM who you're going to kill. Don't worry. I am my own biggest critic. I wish I waited as well. Second, you must have known already that the FM most likely also targeted Manderly, so why this extreme anger when I 'revealed'? ...I actually thought they targeted someone that was healed or something. I assumed that their kill failed rather than we both targeted mentat. It made me feel better about killing an innocent. At least I killed somebody, you know? When you claimed you killed Manderly, well jesus. Turns out I didn't kill anybody at all. I was all excited about being a vig too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Wythers Posted March 6, 2008 Share Posted March 6, 2008 Westerling: Day 2: (21hours left) I think Cultist(s) (or FMs) can be found among players who had no real confrotations and didn't argue much. Arryn fits the bill (and few more players, of course). Possible converts are Lannister and Bolton. Lannister is very litterate and would be a good addition to the Cult, and Bolton is very aggressive but also obviously experienced in this game so he would be a good addition too. I think both are very experienced players and Cult will probably be looking for them (or for players with similar qualities). Day 3: I don't have much free time right now, but I managed to read most of the posts. I see most of people are willing to lynch Bolton and Dayne at the moment. I would like to see Arryn and Swann hang (they are avoiding conflicts too much), but not many people have voted them so I'll vote Dayne for now. Bolton could be an original cult leader (I don't think he could be convert because he is too aggressive and Cult probably wouldn't recruit him) and we would gain much information if we lynched him, but I'll stick to Dayne at the moment. Huh? This makes the vote (next mod post is actually missing this vote): 4 votes for Bolton (Reed, Blackwood, Frey, Stark) 5 votes for Dayne (Arryn, Bolton, Martell, Crakehall, Westerling) 1 vote for Baratheon (Tully) 1 vote for Swann (Tyrell) 4 players have not voted: Baratheon, Dayne, Swann. 13.5(ish) hours left. He does mention some suspicion of Dayne earlier, however to have contradiction like I showed above and you only have 21 total posts. I think I'm good with my vote on Westerling still. eta- Actually on second thought..hm..Blackwood might not have a terrible point eventhough it is self serving. We'll have to see later in the day how things go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Upcliff Posted March 6, 2008 Share Posted March 6, 2008 Godz, I thought my post was pretty obviously a joke. For the record I am not a cultist. I am not a FM. I am not anything really... which gets a little boring to tell you the truth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Dondarrion Posted March 6, 2008 Author Share Posted March 6, 2008 It is day 4. 12 players remain: Arryn, Baratheon, Blackwood, Crakehall, Dayne, Frey, Reed, Stark, Swann, Tully, Tyrell, Westerling. 7 votes are needed for a conviction or 6 to go to night. 2 votes for Westerling (Tully, Baratheon) 1 vote for Tyrell (Westerling) 9 players have not voted: Arryn, Blackwood, Crakehall, Dayne, Frey, Reed, Stark, Swann, Tyrell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Wythers Posted March 6, 2008 Share Posted March 6, 2008 From Day 1: 9 votes for Greyjoy (Reed, Baratheon, Bolton, Dayne, Martell, Tully, Lannister, Manderly, Westerling) 4 votes for Dayne (Swann, Arryn, Frey, Greyjoy (FM)) 2 votes for Tully (Crakehall, Stark) 1 votes for Frey ( Blackwood) 1 players has not voted: Tyrell. I have kind of a hard time believing that the first lynch was ALL innocents. Something interesting to look at and consider. Then Day 2: 9 votes for Lannister (Tully, Baratheon, Tyrell, Arryn, Reed, Blackwood, Crakehall, Dayne, Frey) 4 votes for Arryn (Bolton (Cult), Westerling, Lannister, Swann) 1 vote for Bolton (Stark) 1 vote for Swann (Manderly) 1 vote for Tully (Martell) Much different looking lynchmob on the innocent Lannister. I'm not sure how much more there is to glean from this, but I'll leave it here. eta- And now I have to leave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Frey Posted March 6, 2008 Share Posted March 6, 2008 Tully - yeah, not surprised. Kind of expected it actually. Oh frickin hell, here we go again. Who would be a good convert? Almost anyone really. I'm willing to take Baratheon and Dayne out of my equation for today (although I'm always willing to listen to a good case) I am dreading trying to go back through the thread to see who might have been Bolton's partner :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Frey Posted March 6, 2008 Share Posted March 6, 2008 From Day 1: 9 votes for Greyjoy (Reed, Baratheon, Bolton, Dayne, Martell, Tully, Lannister, Manderly, Westerling) 4 votes for Dayne (Swann, Arryn, Frey, Greyjoy (FM)) 2 votes for Tully (Crakehall, Stark) 1 votes for Frey ( Blackwood) 1 players has not voted: Tyrell. I have kind of a hard time believing that the first lynch was ALL innocents. Something interesting to look at and consider. You've taken Reed, Baratheon, Dayne and Tully off of your list of the Greyjoy mob. While I agree, it's most likely that none of these 4 are FM, it's not proven - especially Dayne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Yronwood Posted March 6, 2008 Share Posted March 6, 2008 Hmmmh, Reed's post ratio has fallen on a level of only 10 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Reed Posted March 6, 2008 Share Posted March 6, 2008 Hmmmh, Reed's post ratio has fallen on a level of only 10 percent. I just got to work. No, I wasn't converted. More thoughts in a minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Frey Posted March 6, 2008 Share Posted March 6, 2008 Ok, looking at the time when I was in danger and it was nearly over for me...votes were: 4 votes for Dayne (Martell, Westerling, Tyrell) 4 votes for Bolton (Reed, Blackwood, Frey, Stark) 6 vote for Baratheon (Tully, Arryn, Bolton, Dayne, Crakehall, Swann) Honestly, I am tempted to clear Blackwood, Frey, and Stark of being OC. I don't think at that time it would have been that difficult or unpopular to put their votes on me and just ask that we end the day. I was just going back to check who put the quick votes on Bolton early in the day and it was Reed, Frey and Blackwood - the same people that Bara is ready to clear since their votes didn't move. I remember Stark also being rather adamant about Bolton Day 2 & 3, but don't have the quotes to back it up. One thing I do want to say is that although Blackwood looks good right now for a non-cult, I still have him on my list as possible FM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Frey Posted March 6, 2008 Share Posted March 6, 2008 Convert Tier 1: Martell, Tully, Dayne, Frey Tier 2: Crakehall, Blackwood, Baratheon Tier 3: Reed, Westerling, Swann, Arryn, Tyrell, Stark Original Cult Tier 1: Swann, Arryn, Tyrell Tier 2: Blackwood, Frey, Stark, Westerling, Dayne, Crakehall Tier 3: Reed, Tully, Martell, Baratheon I'm just pulling this out for easy reference. I have no idea what to make of it, so maybe someone else can make more use of it. Not knowing if Bolton was OC or convert, we don't know which list is more significant. The general consensus is that he is a convert, so his OC list would have to look more realistic. Perhaps the OC is in his tier 2 OC list? Not tier 1 because then he might be obliged to vote for him, but not tier 3 so there's not obvious distancing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magic Mirror Posted March 6, 2008 Share Posted March 6, 2008 I'm just pulling this out for easy reference. I have no idea what to make of it, so maybe someone else can make more use of it. Not knowing if Bolton was OC or convert, we don't know which list is more significant. The general consensus is that he is a convert, so his OC list would have to look more realistic. Perhaps the OC is in his tier 2 OC list? Not tier 1 because then he might be obliged to vote for him, but not tier 3 so there's not obvious distancing. Thank you for pulling that up Frey. His OC would also not be on Tier one of the convert list. That leaves us with Blackwood who is a very unlikely OC since he voted Bolton early yesterday and helped lynch him (and because I know I am not the OC); Stark; Westerling and Crakehall. Pretty much the list I had earlier if you add Swann Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Frey Posted March 6, 2008 Share Posted March 6, 2008 But you were talking about the best conversions, not partners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Reed Posted March 6, 2008 Share Posted March 6, 2008 Okay, I think we have a lot of information to work with right now. For starters, I'm not sure that I believe Tyrell when he says he was joking. I think there are 3 possibilities: 1) He was frustrated and telling the truth 2) He felt the noose tightening, so he did something outlandish - posted a fake-joke, so he could come on here and claim it was a joke (i.e. Swann defense). 3) He really was joking. I guess #1 is doubtful, since he's now claiming it was a joke. But I think #2 has just as much of a chance of being correct as #3, if not more. Going back through Bolton's posts, and I found his most recent suspect list here. If I had to rate them, I'd say I'd vote for Dayne first because of his massive behavior change my problems on day 1. He seems like the most likely choice for the OC but if he's not the OC, his behavior change also means he's a very likely convert. This to me is the best chance of finding a cult member. The rest would follow in this order: 2. Tyrell 3. Arryn 4. Swann The reason I put Swann 4th is because my most likely OC choice is Dayne and Swann has repeatedly voted for him. I think it's very likely based on behaviour that Swann is probably a FM. I think this makes it probable that Dayne is not the OC. I also doubt Arryn is the OC, because Bolton was after him on day 2. I could see Bolton distancing from his OC, but not trying so hard to lynch him unless he felt he was doomed at that point and was desperate to create distance. So the question becomes - would Bolton hide his OC partner on his suspect list, in order to create distance in case one of them was lynched? I think he might. Moving Tyrell and Swann near the top of the OC suspects. I think Crakehall should also go near the top of the OC suspect list. I've been through this one before. He left Bolton off of his first convert suspect list. When questioned about it, he said it was an oversight and put him on tier 3. Later, he said he suspected all of my top convert suspects, but he was more neutral about Bolton - This is why Frey remains one of my top suspects for convert, along with Martell and Tully. Baratheon, now that I've read more, fits in here as well. I don't think he came out as clean as Frey makes him out to have been. And Bolton...the only thing that bothered me day 1 was the spelling charade. If I could FIND the case against him, I'd reread it, but there are about 400 posts of argument that I don't want to go through just to put together which case to analyze. I'll probably make a case against each one of Tyrell, Swann, and Crakehall later today. For now, my OC suspect list is - Tier 1 - Tyrell, Swann, Crakehall Tier 2 - Blackwood, Stark, Westerling Tier 3 - Frey, Dayne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Reed Posted March 6, 2008 Share Posted March 6, 2008 Moving on to the night 3 convert. I don't think it was one of Dayne or Baratheon - OC couldn't afford to risk either one of them being night killed. Even if the OC doubted Tully's claim (and it's possible - I certainly doubted it the entire time, because I never believed Tully would target me on night 1, without any thought for the presence of a healer, as he was claiming), he had to take into account the possibility that Tully could be telling the truth. And therefore had to avoid Tully's possible NK targets. For the same reason, he had to avoid Tully himself. And I think he had plenty of reason to avoid me as well - fear of the priest (if Bolton was lying about his role), fear that I'd stop posting if I was converted (which I would have - I was telling the truth there), fear that the FM might just night kill me (in spite of what Tully was saying) now that I had gotten rid of a cult member for them. That leaves 8 possible night 3 converts - Arryn, Blackwood, Crakehall, Frey, Stark, Swann, Tyrell, Westerling. To further narrow down that list, we need to momentarily shift gears and look for the FM. Here's my earlier FM suspect list - Tier 1 - Swann, Westerling, Blackwood, Tyrell, Dayne Tier 2 - Arryn, Stark, Crakehall Tier 3 - Frey Arryn is an interesting case. He could be a FM fake revealing as vig. The fact that we only had 1 kill leaves that possibility open. But why bother claiming, when he wasn't under any pressure at the time? And if he was a FM, why make himself such a top conversion target like that (cult would have been tempted to get a VPI on their team)? It would be too risky, and could lead to his death. So I'd drop him to the bottom of the FM suspect list. That leaves us with this FM suspect list - Tier 1 - Swann, Westerling, Blackwood, Tyrell, Dayne Tier 2 - Stark, Crakehall Tier 3 - Frey, Arryn So now we go back to the night 3 convert. Take Dayne away from the group listed above, and you have all of the night 3 convert suspects. Well, the OC would have wanted to avoid the top FM suspects. He still doesn't want to waste his conversion on a FM. So the convert suspect list is the inverse of the FM suspect list. Tier 1 - Frey, Crakehall, Stark, Arryn Tier 2 - Swann, Westerling, Blackwood, Tyrell Then you add in the caveat that Stark has indicated he might choose to be modkilled. It seems less likely at this point, since he said he'd stick around in one of his most recent posts. But would you really want to take that risk if you were the OC? I wouldn't. So my revised convert suspect list is - Tier 1 - Frey, Crakehall, Arryn Tier 2 - Stark Tier 3 - Swann, Westerling, Blackwood, Tyrell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Reed Posted March 6, 2008 Share Posted March 6, 2008 I'm just pulling this out for easy reference. I have no idea what to make of it, so maybe someone else can make more use of it. Not knowing if Bolton was OC or convert, we don't know which list is more significant. The general consensus is that he is a convert, so his OC list would have to look more realistic. Perhaps the OC is in his tier 2 OC list? Not tier 1 because then he might be obliged to vote for him, but not tier 3 so there's not obvious distancing. When did Bolton post that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Reed Posted March 6, 2008 Share Posted March 6, 2008 To summarize my suspect lists - Original Cultist Tier 1 - Tyrell, Swann, Crakehall Tier 2 - Blackwood, Stark, Westerling Tier 3 - Frey, Dayne Night 3 Convert Tier 1 - Frey, Crakehall, Arryn Tier 2 - Stark Tier 3 - Swann, Westerling, Blackwood, Tyrell FM Tier 1 - Swann, Westerling, Blackwood, Tyrell, Dayne Tier 2 - Stark, Crakehall Tier 3 - Frey, Arryn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Frey Posted March 6, 2008 Share Posted March 6, 2008 Crakehall is also on Bolton's tier 2 OC list. I had a good feeling about Crake, as did a lot of people, when he made his tremendous effort at a re-read. Since he's been caught up, he hasn't really posted a whole lot. Early day 1 he was in it, but since then, not so much (my impression). I could look at him today. again, might not be around as much today - work load is unpredictable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Frey Posted March 6, 2008 Share Posted March 6, 2008 Early Day 3 after the quick early votes against him. It was in response to a direct question by you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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