Mini Game 51.25

[House Pommingham]

Cargan dead is not really surprising, as he basically made no connection to other players. He didn't like Varden but only for inexplicable vibes - so we really don't have much to go on.

However, I'm really surprised at all you people saying you didn't know how much time was left. There was a mod post about 50 minutes before the end saying that the day would end at a specific time, for two different time zones no less. Yes, you might be off a minute or two on your personal clock, but you really should be aware that the day was almost up. As such, I find Ogan's attempt to get Cargan lynched very strange. But, why would he do that if evil? Just because he wanted to give us a no-lynch? I'm not really certain the pay-off is big enough, he's getting a lot of pressure. The other option is that one of the possible lynchees was his partner. Well, it's not me so then it would have to be Naomh. But why not just place a vote on me, ensuring I'm lynched then? Am I overlooking something?

All in all, I'd say that Ogan's actions were damn suspicious, but they don't entirely make sense either. I'm not really certain what I think of him.

[House Velaryon]

[quote name='Teafa' post='1354405' date='May 14 2008, 01.30']Incidentally, Marga, I can't remember if you ever answered my question last night...what DID you find in your re-read of Brigid that made her seem so suspicious? :P Inquiring minds want to know.[/quote]
I think I said it before, but basically I really didn't like it that it was A) an easy attempt to look like she was contributing and fitting in and B) that it was her first post in awhile. She seemed, as do some others, overly concerned about avoiding suspicion.

[House Velaryon]

[quote name='Brighid' post='1354416' date='May 14 2008, 02.44']Cargan dead is not really surprising, as he basically made no connection to other players. He didn't like Varden but only for inexplicable vibes - so we really don't have much to go on.[/quote]
Surprising considering they were lynchable and considering the night one kills in the last several games. This is the first time in awhile a kill like this was made day 1. Nice of you to point out that the FM gave us no information with the kill, as if anyone thought it did.
[quote name='Brighid' post='1354416' date='May 14 2008, 02.44']As such, [u]I find Ogan's attempt to get Cargan lynched very strange[/u]. [u]But, why would he do that if evil[/u]? Just because he wanted to give us a no-lynch? I'm not really certain the pay-off is big enough, he's getting a lot of pressure. The other option is that one of the possible lynchees was his partner. Well, it's not me so then [u]it would have to be Naomh[/u]. But why not just place a vote on me, ensuring I'm lynched then? Am I overlooking something?

All in all, I'd say that [i]Ogan's actions were damn suspicious[/i], [i]but they don't entirely make sense either. I'm not really certain what I think of him.[/i][/quote]
This whole post is fairly suspicious. Brighid finds Ogan's attempt to lynch Cargan strange, but doesn't know why an evil would do that. Then gives two decent reasons for him to. The last line has a similar contradiction, Ogan was very suspicious but it doesn't make sense and I'm not really certain what I think. Well, you've said it was suspicious and given some reasoning as to why, only to undermine it and cast doubt. I am making a bit of a case that links these two. I don't normally like to make a case like that, but much of my suspicion of Ogan stems from his actions with regard to Brighid. I wish I was a finder and knew Ogan's alignment, then I'd feel much more confident moving forward with this..but what the hell.

[House Mooton]

[b]Ogan[/b], I don't feel any better about you now than I did when night fell.In fact i feel worse.

Why?

Firstly you seem pretty aggressive towards people talking about voting you. You shrug it off with an "oh do it then" then attack their logic for doing so. Not pick it apart, just attack it.

Secondly, the modkill talk. Please, just no.

Thirdly, the choice of nightkill. Yes, it's the one that'd make us doubt you as a killer the most. Convinient that. I know this one can be WIFOMed to hell, but if i was you and a killer, i'd have killed him.


Brighid, you're not doing yourself many favours defending him. Even if we get a CI on him from a finder, you're next on my list. I can't see you being anything other than a) his partner, or b) an fm who thinks they are as good as dead and wants to drag him down with them.

[House Velaryon]

In writing my case I've been thinking about a few things that bother me about it. Much of, but not all, my suspicion of Ogan centers around him pushing Cargan. I'm trying to think of reasons why he would do this and I have to think that the only real benefit for him would be if Naomh or Brighid as his partner. It would make no sense otherwise. If Naomh was his partner, then I'd imagine he'd consider pushing Cargan more because he had defended Brighid earlier. From what I remember, I don't think this partnership is likely, but I don't think it is impossible. If Brighid was his partner, he could have easily pushed Naomh as he had left himself open to do so. The one reason he may not have wanted to do this is he didn't want to choose one of the two and make the votes even (4-4). Anyone else have any thoughts?

[House Velaryon]

[quote name='Riona' post='1354505' date='May 14 2008, 03.36']Brighid, you're not doing yourself many favours defending him. Even if we get a CI on him from a finder, you're next on my list. I can't see you being anything other than a) his partner, or b) an fm who thinks they are as good as dead and wants to drag him down with them.[/quote]
You don't think there is any way Brighid is innocent?

[House Mooton]

[quote name='Marga' post='1354511' date='May 14 2008, 08.45']You don't think there is any way Brighid is innocent?[/quote]

If so, she's made a lot of poor choices so far.

I'm not dead certain, far from it, especially this early. No tunnel visioning going on here...

However, I'd be suprised at this stage to say the least.

[House Mooton]

[quote name='Marga' post='1354507' date='May 14 2008, 08.44']In writing my case I've been thinking about a few things that bother me about it. Much of, but not all, my suspicion of Ogan centers around him pushing Cargan. I'm trying to think of reasons why he would do this and I have to think that the only real benefit for him would be if Naomh or Brighid as his partner. It would make no sense otherwise. If Naomh was his partner, then I'd imagine he'd consider pushing Cargan more because he had defended Brighid earlier. From what I remember, I don't think this partnership is likely, but I don't think it is impossible. If Brighid was his partner, he could have easily pushed Naomh as he had left himself open to do so. The one reason he may not have wanted to do this is he didn't want to choose one of the two and make the votes even (4-4). Anyone else have any thoughts?[/quote]

Perhaps it ws just not a well thought out plan from an FM trying to force a no lynch without looking too obvious?

Think about it. If we'd lynched we'd have the same number of lynches until potential endgame left, however we'd be able to gain a lynch through a successful heal or guard. Now a successful heal or guard gains us no such benefit..

Well, a successful guard is always good as it can be used as a weak find, but you know what i mean. :-p We now need two heals or guards in order to gain a bonus lynch.

[House Velaryon]

Ok, you are right. The FM do benefit by wasting our opportunity to go to night now (with no heals we'd go to night day 3 to reduce the suspect pool and be at endgame with 5 people (2 FM) day 4). We also [i]must[/i] lynch today or tomorrow, otherwise we potentially lose a lynch. People, this is why I always try to be sure we lynch (especially with CF, which we don't have :cry:). I wish I had been around at the end of the day, :unsure:.

One issue though Fiona, is that guarding at this point is useless because there are two FM. If there aren't two..then I feel very badly for the solo FM because they are pretty fucked.

[House Mooton]

[quote name='Marga' post='1354523' date='May 14 2008, 09.03']Ok, you are right. The FM do benefit by wasting our opportunity to go to night now (with no heals we'd go to night day 3 to reduce the suspect pool and be at endgame with 5 people (2 FM) day 4). We also [i]must[/i] lynch today or tomorrow, otherwise we potentially lose a lynch. People, this is why I always try to be sure we lynch (especially with CF, which we don't have :cry: ). I wish I had been around at the end of the day, :unsure: .

One issue though Fiona, is that guarding at this point is useless because there are two FM. If there aren't two..then I feel very badly for the solo FM because they are pretty fucked.[/quote]

While guarding is useless until we lynch once, after that it isn't and the FM will plan accordingly i'm sure. I know i'd be saying "They probably have a guard or a healer, chances are they will block one kill, so we really need to have a no lynch to increase our chances best".

And yeah, guard's gimped at the beginning, but later they not only block the kill but out the killer. Of course, they may be wrong and have guarded someone else with the target BPing, or killer witholding the kill, or whatever... But chances are if the guard does hit later in the game, they win us the game. :)

[House Velaryon]

Alright, I cut out some of the early stuff that potentially connects Brighid and Ogan. I'll leave in some of the later connections I discuss, but feel free to ignore it as the primary piece is Ogan's suspicious behavior.

Ogan discussing the suspects thus far:
[quote name='Ógán' post='1353300' date='May 13 2008, 11.42']We've got about 4.5 hours left. I'm satisfied with voting off low-poster Varden that has accumulated a total of 2 posts in 24 hours. I'd also vote of Naomh for the same.

Other suspects mentioned:

Marga is irritating and evasive but she's actually playing so I won't vote for her on D1.

[i]Brighid is annoyingly unhelpful[/i]

Fionn's middle-of-the-roadness doesn't seem to have gotten any traction, but I don't like the appeal to his "inexperience" as a defence.[/quote]
Doesn't actually give any suspicion really other than frustration that Fionn isn't getting attention for being middle of the road (I wonder if that will be brought up again?). So at this point his lynch targets are Varden and Naomh simply for not posting. No mention of Cargan at all.
Also interesting to note: [url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=28118&view=findpost&p=1353340"]Brighid is also focused on either Varden or Naomh. No reason other than they are quiet.[/url]
Now Ogan returns 3 hours later to discuss the lynch possibilities (1.5 or so hours left in the day). The only changes between this post and the last was Varden returned and Cargan was put forth as a suspect.
[quote name='Ógán' post='1353641' date='May 13 2008, 14.55']We're running out of time for a consensus for a lynch. Instead of listing ppl you wonn't lynch, let's concentrate on who we *will* lynch.

Varden has now appeared and I'm willing to wait to see what he has to say but not for much longer.

Cargan could be a good choice, imo. He's been a complete distraction, doesn't seem capable of articulating a case or looking for any alternate lynches beyond his vibes.

Naomh is a decent choice. I also don't like the "don't work hard on D1" line. At best it's lazy inno talk and at worst it's FM stifling inquiry.[/quote]
Cargan is now a very big concern and a "complete distraction". This isn't anything new as Cargan's offending post was 6.5 hours before this one. However, it is a new easy target for Ogan to push. Also notice there is no mention of Brighid here at all.
[url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=28118&view=findpost&p=1353669"]Brighid points out that he mentioned everyone with
votes except for her.[/url]
Ogan replies:
[quote name='Ógán' post='1353679' date='May 13 2008, 15.09']I was listing the candidates that I am willing to vote for. I haven't forgotten you but you're not up my list past these three at present. Sorry if you feel left out.[/quote]
The interesting point here is that he mentions Varden in his post that is supposedly a list of who he'd lynch, but he points out he doesn't want to lynch him. So it is not simply a list of those he'd vote for because he mentions Varden and backs off his intent to lynch them. This feels, to me, like a possible mistake.

Moving on to Ogan's campaign to get Cargan lynched...remember Cargan has the least votes and was not even on Ogan's radar despite the fact that the offending post was made much earlier in the day. Cargan does not push and try to convince anyone of his belief in Cargan's potential guilt or merit as a lynch candidate, he simply asks people what they think of Cargan [url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=28118&view=findpost&p=1353692"]1, [/url][url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=28118&view=findpost&p=1353723"]2[/url] (Also, notice here that he shrugs off Naomh calling him an ass...no such love for me), [url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=28118&view=findpost&p=1353759"]here he asks [i]Cargan [/i] what he thinks of Naomh, [/url][url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=28118&view=findpost&p=1353805"]3, [/url][url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=28118&view=findpost&p=1353812"]4 (and with a vote!), [/url] [url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=28118&view=findpost&p=1353818"]5, [/url][url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=28118&view=findpost&p=1353829"]6, [/url]and then finally switches to Brighid too late.

[House Pommingham]

[quote name='Riona' post='1354505' date='May 14 2008, 09.36']Brighid, you're not doing yourself many favours defending him. Even if we get a CI on him from a finder, you're next on my list. I can't see you being anything other than a) his partner, or b) an fm who thinks they are as good as dead and wants to drag him down with them.[/quote]
I'm not defending him. I tried to find a reason for his actions last night, as evil. Marga did the same the post right after yours here, and then you point out the benefits of no lynch for the killers.

Marga, I was going to bring up that list of potential lynch candidates. It seemed strange then and it seems strange now.

My main problem with lynching Ogan is that he makes most sense as a killer if I was his partner... And I'm not. However, as Riona points out the killers do benefit from a lot from a no-lynch, so maybe he thought that was enough in itself.

[House Mooton]

[quote name='Brighid' post='1354549' date='May 14 2008, 09.50']I'm not defending him. I tried to find a reason for his actions last night, as evil. Marga did the same the post right after yours here, and then you point out the benefits of no lynch for the killers.

Marga, I was going to bring up that list of potential lynch candidates. It seemed strange then and it seems strange now.

My main problem with lynching Ogan is that he makes most sense as a killer if I was his partner... And I'm not. However, as Riona points out the killers do benefit from a lot from a no-lynch, so maybe he thought that was enough in itself.[/quote]

They also benefit quite a bit from an innocent lynch regardless, especially when it doubles their chance of killing the healer/guard/finder on day 1. If a killer can hammer an innocent, they aren't likely to stick their neck on the line in order to have a no lynch.

I'm starting to think an innocent read on you from a finder would VPI Ogan. He only really makes sense as your partner.

I'm too busy to double check now, so i could be wrong. We have plenty of time, so i'll mull on possibilities for him to be evil and you innocent. I find it easier to see you evil and him innocent if you aren't partnered though.

[House Redfort]

I'm back and catching up. Stay tuned.

[House Ashford]

First of all, I want to apologize to Marga and to the all the other players. I let some non-game frustrations bleed over and I over-reacted. Worse, I contributed to and aggravated the things about mafia that have been bothering me lately.

I have an extremely busy day with RL today so I will not be around for another 8 hours or so, if not longer. I have posted my reasoning for what I did. If you think it's a reason to lynch me that's understandable and completely reasonable. If nothing else it will remove the distraction that I haev caused.

I hate to carry over D1 cases to D2 unless there is good reason. I don't think there is a good case against Brighid, Naomh or Varden for today. I don't have time for a re-read now as I am already late.

I am going to place a vote on [b]Fionn[/b] for yesterday's contradiction and his "I haven't been getting enough attention" post that sounds odd to me.

[House Pommingham]

[quote name='Riona' post='1354579' date='May 14 2008, 12.15']I find it easier to see you evil and him guilty if you aren't partnered though.[/quote]
Clarify. Which one of us do you think is evil?

Ogan: What was that contradition?

[House Mooton]

[quote name='Brighid' post='1354688' date='May 14 2008, 13.56']Clarify. Which one of us do you think is evil?[/quote]

Both.

I think you are partnered.

I could accept him as innocent, you as guilty though.

I wouldn't accept him as guilty if you are proven innocent. He'll be VPI.

[House Mooton]

[quote name='Ogan' post='1354665' date='May 14 2008, 13.29']I hate to carry over D1 cases to D2 unless there is good reason.[/quote]

And the no-lynch isn't a good reason?


edit: accented names suck when quoting.

[House Mooton]

[quote name='Dreyken' post='1354660' date='May 14 2008, 13.22']I'm back and catching up. Stay tuned.[/quote]

Still catching up an hour later?

[House Redfort]

[quote name='Riona' post='1354697' date='May 14 2008, 08.06']I wouldn't accept him as guilty if you are proven innocent. He'll be VPI.[/quote]

I don't agree.

Anyway, I've caught up on what's going on so here are my thoughts from the top of my head.

1. Ogan's actions around the deadline are strange as were Varden's. I think he's getting all the attention but we're ignoring Varden. One thing in Varden's favor is I get the feeling he's somewhat lost but random.org doesn't discriminate so he shouldn't be ignored.

To continue on that tangent, I can see Ogan's actions being guilty regardless of whether he's a partner simply because a no lynch benefits the FM. It doesn't hurt us all that much today because we had an even number of players but with a no lynch, the FM get a free kill and still get to have several suspects alive from the previous day to dominate discussion. So I have no problems accepting that Ogan did what he did because he wanted a no lynch, nor do I have any problems accepting that his actions were dictated by uncertainty.

On the flip side (call me wishy-washy if you want but I'm breaking this down as it helps me think), it was pretty careless and poorly executed. He would have been better off just disappearing. Then again, if he saw Varden was clueless and looking for guidance, being around and sticking to Varden's target was a good way to prevent him from jumping onto one of the more likely mobs.

Finally, his vote came a minute or two after the deadline with no mod around. That's some pretty exact timing if he's guilty and some poor if he's innocent. I guess it comes down to how clever we think Ogan is.

I read the case Marga made and there is one thing I agree with that is suspicious. That is, he posted about Cargan 6 times. Why not switch to Niamdh who he had previously said he was willing to lynch and was more likely to get lynched than Cargan? It doesn't make sense to push Cargan that hard when there is someone else who's closer to a lynch and you've said repeatedly you'd lynch her.

So yea, I have no answers which means I'm going to look at someone else.