House Redfort Posted May 14, 2008 Share Posted May 14, 2008 [quote name='Riona' post='1354709' date='May 14 2008, 08.15']Still catching up an hour later?[/quote] Yes. I'm busy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Mooton Posted May 14, 2008 Share Posted May 14, 2008 [quote name='Dreyken' post='1354734' date='May 14 2008, 14.29']Yes. Edited rest of quote.[/quote] Fair enough. Just making sure you hadn't forgotten :-p Plus shouldn't that be "what i'm also doing" with the strict alt rules? :P The post has been edited by the Mods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Westerling Posted May 14, 2008 Share Posted May 14, 2008 [quote name='Riona' post='1354697' date='May 14 2008, 08.06']Both. I think you are partnered. I could accept him as innocent, you as guilty though. I wouldn't accept him as guilty if you are proven innocent. He'll be VPI.[/quote] Based on this, why aren't you voting for Brighid instead of Ogan? You think they are partnered and guilty, but if they are not partnered, then you think the single most likely to be guilty is Brighid? It seems like for you the safer vote would be Brighid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Mooton Posted May 14, 2008 Share Posted May 14, 2008 [quote name='Naomh' post='1354752' date='May 14 2008, 14.37']Based on this, why aren't you voting for Brighid instead of Ogan? You think they are partnered and guilty, but if they are not partnered, then you think the single most likely to be guilty is Brighid? It seems like for you the safer vote would be Brighid.[/quote] I'm not too sure. However, I am quite happy to have pressure on Ogan for now. I can always switch, and would be happy to vote either off. It's not like we're in the last half hour now... Also, Ogan seems a more experienced player than brighid, and therefore seems more dangerous to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Redfort Posted May 14, 2008 Share Posted May 14, 2008 [quote name='Riona' post='1354750' date='May 14 2008, 08.36']Fair enough. Just making sure you hadn't forgotten :-p Plus shouldn't that be "what i'm also doing" with the strict alt rules? :P[/quote] Then I'll edit it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Velaryon Posted May 14, 2008 Share Posted May 14, 2008 [quote name='Dreyken' post='1354728' date='May 14 2008, 09.28']On the flip side (call me wishy-washy if you want but I'm breaking this down as it helps me think), it was pretty careless and poorly executed. He would have been better off just disappearing. Then again, if he saw Varden was clueless and looking for guidance, being around and sticking to Varden's target was a good way to prevent him from jumping onto one of the more likely mobs. Finally, his vote came a minute or two after the deadline with no mod around. That's some pretty exact timing if he's guilty and some poor if he's innocent. I guess it comes down to how clever we think Ogan is.[/quote] This is what I am thinking more and more. It seems like a strange strategy for FM to plan/intentionally have no lynch to go through (unless it was a reaction to his partner being near a lynch). I believe for Ogan to be guilty it would mean he'd have to be partnered with Naomh or, more likely, Brighid. It is just a bit too complicated a plan think it is likely IMO, [u]KISS[/u]. [quote name='Dreyken' post='1354728' date='May 14 2008, 09.28']I read the case Marga made and there is one thing I agree with that is suspicious. That is, he posted about Cargan 6 times. Why not switch to Niamdh who he had previously said he was willing to lynch and was more likely to get lynched than Cargan? It doesn't make sense to push Cargan that hard when there is someone else who's closer to a lynch and you've said repeatedly you'd lynch her.[/quote] I also found it strange that he didn't repeat the 'case' on Cargan, but was just repeatedly asking "What do you think?". Not really an effective way to get people to consider your suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Redfort Posted May 14, 2008 Share Posted May 14, 2008 [quote name='Marga' post='1354763' date='May 14 2008, 08.43']This is what I am thinking more and more. It seems like a strange strategy for FM to plan/intentionally have no lynch to go through (unless it was a reaction to his partner being near a lynch). I believe for Ogan to be guilty it would mean he'd have to be partnered with Naomh or, more likely, Brighid. It is just a bit too complicated a plan think it is likely IMO, [u]KISS[/u].[/quote] I think that's more likely as well. I could easily see him being partnered with Naomh and deciding it was better to keep Brighid alive with a no lynch simply to give more cover to Naomh. But still, the whole way he went about it lacked efficiency. It makes me hesitate as I always feel that an innocent is more likely to blunder something up than a guilty. [quote name='Marga']I also found it strange that he didn't repeat the 'case' on Cargan, but was just repeatedly asking "What do you think?". Not really an effective way to get people to consider your suspect.[/quote] That is a fair point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Pommingham Posted May 14, 2008 Share Posted May 14, 2008 Ok, this happened last night, just before the day ended. First, Ogan starts his Cargan campaign: [quote name='Ógán' post='1353805' date='May 13 2008, 22.09']I'd prefer to vote Cargan over Brighid or Naomh, but I don't know if we have the ppl around to make it work. I'd vote Naomh over Brighid. Anyone else interested in voting Cargan?[/quote] Then Varden makes a post: [quote name='Várden' post='1353807' date='May 13 2008, 22.09']Alright, I guess it just depends if another person as well as me would be willing to switch over. I have to run here in a few minutes (literally) but the end of the day is near anyways right? I'll at least stick around til that long, then I won't be back for an hour or two. And I agree Teafa, but if we want to avoid a no lynch and the Brighid voters can't be moved, Brighid is as close as it gets right now. [i]Any Brighid voters willing to change over? [/i] Either way I just think we should come to a consensus on one lynch.[/quote] At this point Varden's vote is on... Cargan. He is clearly ready to switch vote to get a lynch through, and both me and Naomh seems like likely candidates. He doesn't mention Naomh, but he asks if anyone voting for me is willing to switch - and pretty much the only other realistic candidate at this point is Naomh. This makes it seem like he's more ready to vote Naomh than me. And what happens just afterwards? Ogan votes Cargan, which gets him to 3 votes, equal to Naomh. What I'm getting at is that Naomh and Ogan are partnered and Ogan started (really) pushing Cargan in order to make sure the Naomh lynch didn't go through. With Cargan equal to Naomh, Varden has less incentive to switch to a Naomh lynch. He could instead hope others "see thel ight" and vote Cargan, or go for me. So [b]Ogan[/b] pulled of a trick in order to avoid Naomh getting lynched. Getting no lynch in addition was just a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Velaryon Posted May 14, 2008 Share Posted May 14, 2008 [quote name='Brighid' post='1354840' date='May 14 2008, 10.22']So [b]Ogan[/b] pulled of a trick in order to avoid Naomh getting lynched. Getting no lynch in addition was just a bonus.[/quote] Or he could have just voted for you and you'd be lynched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Pommingham Posted May 14, 2008 Share Posted May 14, 2008 [quote name='Marga' post='1354846' date='May 14 2008, 16.25']Or he could have just voted for you and you'd be lynched.[/quote] I'm working on that part. I think that the people on my train seemed willing to change for Naohm, while the people on Naohm didn't fancy me. I'm digging around in the thread to find out if this is correct or not... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Velaryon Posted May 14, 2008 Share Posted May 14, 2008 Here is something that has been bothering me about Brighid. They admitted to being inexperienced, and yet their first reaction to the nightkill seems to be their most confident and strong statement they've made. I mentioned before the reaction was suspicious to me and remembering that made it even more. [quote name='Brighid' post='1354416' date='May 14 2008, 01.44']Cargan dead is not really surprising, as he basically made no connection to other players. He didn't like Varden but only for inexplicable vibes - so we really don't have much to go on.[/quote] [quote name='Brighid' post='1354864' date='May 14 2008, 09.37']I'm working on that part. I think that the people on my train seemed willing to change for Naohm, while the people on Naohm didn't fancy me. I'm digging around in the thread to find out if this is correct or not...[/quote] If he had voted a minute or two earlier, you'd be lynched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Redfort Posted May 14, 2008 Share Posted May 14, 2008 [quote name='Marga' post='1354866' date='May 14 2008, 09.39']Here is something that has been bothering me about Brighid. They admitted to being inexperienced, and yet their first reaction to the nightkill seems to be their most confident and strong statement they've made. I mentioned before the reaction was suspicious to me and remembering that made it even more.[/quote] That's a fair point as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lannister Guard Posted May 14, 2008 Author Share Posted May 14, 2008 It is day 2. 9 players remain: Brighid, Dreyken, Fionn, Marga, Naomh, Ogan, Riona, Teafa, Varden. 5 votes are needed for a conviction or to go to night. 3 votes for Ogan (Marga, Riona, Brighid) 1 vote for Fionn (Ogan) 5 players have not voted: Dreyken, Fionn, Naomh, Teafa, Varden. Aprox 15 hours and 20 mins Day will end at 02:18 EST - Board Time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Pommingham Posted May 14, 2008 Share Posted May 14, 2008 Ok, I'm going to [b]remove vote[/b], as I can't really get it to work. I could vote him again later, but for now it's better to not have someone close to lynch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Westerling Posted May 14, 2008 Share Posted May 14, 2008 [quote name='Marga' post='1354866' date='May 14 2008, 09.39']Here is something that has been bothering me about Brighid. They admitted to being inexperienced, and yet their first reaction to the nightkill seems to be their most confident and strong statement they've made. I mentioned before the reaction was suspicious to me and remembering that made it even more. If he had voted a minute or two earlier, you'd be lynched.[/quote] I agree with this quite a bit. It would be a pretty substantial risk to put the vote down when the mod had not closed the day. Things were a little fast and loose there at the end. I really am having a hard time buying Ogan as evil right now. There is just no logic to his pushing the Cargan lynch if Ogan is evil. I don't buy that he was pushing for a no-lynch when both Brighid and I were very lynchable candidates. Lynching an innocent is always better for the FM, and there would be no particular suspicion of Ogan had he simply voted for one of us and left it at that. If he really wanted a no-lynch, he could have just voted for me and stayed quiet. With so little time left in the day, it might very well have left it as a no-lynch. I like [b]Brighid[/b] the most right now, but I am struggling with who is the partner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Velaryon Posted May 14, 2008 Share Posted May 14, 2008 [quote name='Naomh' post='1354897' date='May 14 2008, 10.00']I agree with this quite a bit. It would be a pretty substantial risk to put the vote down when the mod had not closed the day. Things were a little fast and loose there at the end. I really am having a hard time buying Ogan as evil right now. There is just no logic to his pushing the Cargan lynch if Ogan is evil. I don't buy that he was pushing for a no-lynch when both Brighid and I were very lynchable candidates. Lynching an innocent is always better for the FM, and there would be no particular suspicion of Ogan had he simply voted for one of us and left it at that. If he really wanted a no-lynch, he could have just voted for me and stayed quiet. With so little time left in the day, it might very well have left it as a no-lynch.[/quote] Two things. One, no lynch is actually better for the FM at this point than an innocent lynch for the reason pointed out before, it makes one heal useless for us in terms of gaining another lynch. Two, from your point of view he could potentially be partners with Brighid, from ours he could be with you as well...but I think that is less likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Westerling Posted May 14, 2008 Share Posted May 14, 2008 [quote name='Marga' post='1354907' date='May 14 2008, 10.06']Two things. One, no lynch is actually better for the FM at this point than an innocent lynch for the reason pointed out before, it makes one heal useless for us in terms of gaining another lynch. Two, from your point of view he could potentially be partners with Brighid, from ours he could be with you as well...but I think that is less likely.[/quote] I don't agree with that strategy for the FM. lynch and innocent and NK an innocent is much better IMO than no lynch and a NK. But I concede that there are many strategies that they may employ. yeah, I could be partners with Varden or with Riona as well since I said I didn't want to lynch them either, on D1. The best case for Ogan and me being partners is that Ogan was afraid to hammer Brighid because he didn't want to expose himself to scrutiny when I (his only partner) was alreay on the hotseat. By voting for me, he also puts his only partner within easy striking distance of actually being lynched. It's not a horrible case, except for me being RI and all. So, I discount both pairings from my POV. Between that and the total insanity of Ogan's FM strategy there at the end, I just don't accept him as likely to be guilty. Brighid is very possibly guilty, though, and partners are possibly Riona, Fionn, Varden or Teafa. I am not sure I will have time to work up cases against any of them in the next 12 hours. Today is a busy day for me in RL. I am currently less interested in voting Ogan, Dreyken, or Marga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Mooton Posted May 14, 2008 Share Posted May 14, 2008 [quote name='Naomh' post='1354897' date='May 14 2008, 16.00']I like [b]Brighid[/b] the most right now, but I am struggling with who is the partner.[/quote] +1 to the chances of Naomh and Ogan being partnered. Along with other people's reasoning, it now looks credible along with Brighid and Ogan or just Brighid... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Velaryon Posted May 14, 2008 Share Posted May 14, 2008 [quote name='Naomh' post='1354943' date='May 14 2008, 10.25']I don't agree with that strategy for the FM. lynch and innocent and NK an innocent is much better IMO than no lynch and a NK. But I concede that there are many strategies that they may employ.[/quote] I don't think it is a strategy that would be planned upon well in advance, but if it seems like it would work out it is effective. With 10 players we'd normally have: lynch, NK, lynch, NK..which would bring us down to 6 (4 innocent, 2 FM) and we'd go to night to reduce our number to 5. If either of the first two NKs failed, we would have 7 people day 3 and that would allow us to lynch twice more giving us a total of 4 lynches instead of 3. Since we went to night the first night we now have 9 and will lynch, NK, lynch, NK and be down to 5. A heal would be pointless as we'd have 6 and simply go to night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Mooton Posted May 14, 2008 Share Posted May 14, 2008 [quote name='Naomh' post='1354943' date='May 14 2008, 16.25']I don't agree with that strategy for the FM. lynch and innocent and NK an innocent is much better IMO than no lynch and a NK. But I concede that there are many strategies that they may employ. yeah, I could be partners with Varden or with Riona as well since I said I didn't want to lynch them either, on D1. The best case for Ogan and me being partners is that Ogan was afraid to hammer Brighid because he didn't want to expose himself to scrutiny when I (his only partner) was alreay on the hotseat. By voting for me, he also puts his only partner within easy striking distance of actually being lynched. It's not a horrible case, except for me being RI and all. So, I discount both pairings from my POV. Between that and the total insanity of Ogan's FM strategy there at the end, I just don't accept him as likely to be guilty. Brighid is very possibly guilty, though, and partners are possibly Riona, Fionn, Varden or Teafa. I am not sure I will have time to work up cases against any of them in the next 12 hours. Today is a busy day for me in RL. I am currently less interested in voting Ogan, Dreyken, or Marga.[/quote] Actually, the way I see it the best argument as to why he's your partner is that by keeping Brighid alive by a minute's missed hammer, he keeps someone else as today's most likely lynch. If you and him are partnered, it's better to have no lynch on day 1, brighid on day 2 than brighid on day 1... And i seriously look forward to the case on me as Brighid's partner, dispite the fact I sat voting for her all day, and have her as one of the people I'd very happily lynch today. If i can't get Ogan, it'll be her. But rest assured dear, if it can't be her it'll be you. edit: Wow. Your no votes are your potential partner plus two of the game's leading voices (and favourites for a NK i'm sure)... Seriously, if i wasn't a hater of vibes i'd claim them now, but of course I do hate vibes. So i'll rest on saying that's a very suspicious choice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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