Game 71.5

[Ser Spidey]

Anyway, it's 4:30 PM around here, so I guess I better get some sleep.

Seeing as I'm not likely to get back before the deadline, my vote has to go to Gert. There is too little time to lynch anyone other than her or me, and I can only trust Malc to vig someone else if the players agree so.

Gert, if you're innocent, the best move would be not to argue, especially since you've already said my plan makes sense. Disputing it now can only sow confusion. Let's just make the best of the wreck we've created, and this can only be made by all players agreeing on this as a best course of action. Only this can make Malc and the finder act as we expect them to, and further our chances of winning the game. So, lynch Gert, have Malc vig the most suspicious player/partner to both, and have me investigated/possibly killed.

I repeat, this is probably the only way of getting some sense into this clusterfuck of a game. The most valuable piece of information right now is a find on me, and there is an easy way to get it.

If I'm not awake and present on the thread by the time I'm lynched/NKed, sorry to all the innocents once again.

[Ser Spidey]

your evil partners would have ditched you at the begining of the day. Defending you would be linking them to you. And shifting supision elsewhere well people have pushed Gert today.

Gert's partners wouldn't have to defend her, or mention her at all. All that they had to do was push for me. Don't you agree that say, Lany, is a likely Gert partner, based just on her insistence to lynch me?

[Mina Martell]

Just reread the thread from start to finish. I've decided to toss Gert a bone, step away from Gert vs. Spidey battle for a minute, and look at everyone else.

from Voting patern of the lynch

possible Spider Partners Mina, Malc but not now he's claimed Vig Meow, Kat possibly Lany cos its and early vote and she wasn't back.

Possible Gert partners Sir Thurs, LC, Mentat - Lany and Kat could be there for the voting but with their actions today remove them. Meow you could claim at a pinch he may have felt it time to ditch his partner, but I would have expected him to vote Spider if they where partnered.

Obvioulsy you have to put me in yourselfs. and there is not really a cross over I was hoping to find.

Just wanted to mention that Malc originally voted Spidey, but switched his vote when called on it. So he would actually fit as a Gert partner better than as a Spidey one.

Pebble, you definitely aren't a Gert partner yesterday because of your early vote on her and reluctance to hammer Spidey. I suppose you...um, could be a Spidey partner afraid of being caught by a guilty investigation, but it's unlikely. Since you're suspected as a Spidey partner, you'd have no reason to narrow down the finder pool.

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WARNING--GIANT RAMBLING WISHY-WASHY POST OF DOOM--WARNING

A problem I have is that everyone looks very innocent to me. Few people have made obvious "scumtells" that aren't totally in-keeping with their innocent playstyles. Everyone has either contributed nothing at all or posted a handful of times with comments that sound totally in keeping with their innocent selves when they do post. I keep thinking, "Oh, mentat sounds just like innocent mentat!" and "Pebble sounds just like innocent Pebble!" and dismissing them as suspects.

Thoughts:

-Malcolm was suspicious to me before the vig claim for several forced comments trying to call attention to his innocent playstyle and apparent distancing from Gertrude. I still think his interactions today would have made him the number one option for Gert's partner. Also, rereading, I found some of his suspicions contrived. I'll give you an example of what I mean:

Now, it's usual wishy-washy Mentat again!

Perhaps, it's personal, but I've won two very difficult games in pair with LCOTNW when evil. I think he is very strong player, so your post looks somewhat self-contradicting.

There's an edge in that last sentence--not as if he's pressuring mentat, but as if he's trying to make him look bad.

...but yeah. Claimed vig. I think that he should have waited until a finder reveal to claim. But...yeah. Logically, it makes zero sense for an FM (even one whose partner was in danger) to risk being counterclaimed like that. And anyway, if Malc and Gert were both FM, I'll admit the Piper kill doesn't really fit (as he trusted them both).

-LCOTNW's posts have been kind of scummy. He tends to go on and on about the set-up rather than pin himself down to concrete suspicions. I'll give you an example of what I mean here. I've noticed that LCOTNW-scum tends to be wishy-washy, so I think he'd fit well as a Gert partner.

-I'm a bit biased toward Kat, because she's one of the only people who sees my POV on Gert (and who isn't Spidey...who even I'll admit is not the most unbiased source). At first, I was antsy about her because of her somewhat overdefensive reaction to my jokes (she felt the need to helpfully point out that she wasn't a killer every time I pointed it out). Since then, however, I've agreed with much of her reasoning. And I thought her reaction to mentat's needling was very genuine. I suppose she'd fit very well as either a Spidey or Gert partner, though...although mainly by virtue of not being around enough to interact strongly with them.

-Chairman Meow has contributed nothing at all. The problem is that that's entirely in character for him. So he's basically suspicious by default. Slightly less likely to be Gert's partner because of that unvote.

-I originally felt good about Sir Thursday, but I dislike how low-key he's been since then. When he posts, he makes observations that seem to probe at the motivations behind players...but of course, he doesn't post that often. And of course, I think his waffling over Spidey's "scumtell" was silly. He'd fit very, very well as a Gert partner, particularly with how he distanced from her a little before voting Spidey.

-mentat is a self-confessed wishy-washy bastard. I keep losing track of how many times he's gone from suspecting Gert, to not suspecting her, to suspecting her again. The thing is, he's not theatrical enough. Of course, if Gert or Spidey is his partner, I think his distancing would have been more aggressive. Even if he's trying to play against expectations (because it's an altless game) and defend his partners...I don't see any calculation in his interactions with players. He just seems very laidback and carefree. I also find that he explains his thought process and suspicions very well. I find myself nodding along with his logic.

-Lany has been coasting a lot. She hasn't really gone into depth on her reasons for suspecting Spidey--her explanations are all one-liners--and she used some dodgy logic. Unfortunately, that's...pretty much her usual playstyle. She doesn't fit at all as a Ser Spidey partner, and not well as a Gert partner--Gert placed a serious vote on her early on (although I suppose it could have been distancing). So basically, like Chairman Meow, she's unreadable.

-Pebble is Pebbocent. I'm getting a little annoyed by how convinced she is that we should only look for Spidey partners and ignore the possibility that he's innocent, simply because she thinks Spidey is slightly more likely to be guilty than Gert. But I don't think she's done anything suspicious. I really thought her reaction to Spidey's last-minute claim came across as genuine--mainly since it was the exact same one I had.

---------------

Even when I try to make tiers, they're fuzzy. Leaving out Spidey, Gert, and Malcolm--and based purely on behaviour, not on connections to Gert or Spidey:

Tier 1: LCOTNW, Chairman Meow, Lany

Tier 2: Sir Thursday, Kat, mentat

Tier 3: Pebble that Hides

If Gert is evil:

Tier 1: LCOTNW, Sir Thursday

Tier 2: Lany, Kat, mentat

Tier 3: Chairman Meow, Pebble that Hides

If Spidey is evil:

Tier 1: Kat, Chairman Meow

Tier 2: Pebble, LCOTNW, mentat

Tier 3: Lany, Sir Thursday

Almost nothing in common between the three sets.

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Ugh. I'm finding it hard to think clearly. I think I'm coming down with something. (Maybe that's why I've been running on squishy gut feelings rather than logic this game.) There's also a game on mafiascum that I've neglected for the past few days. To be entirely honest, I wish I could just quit right now and peek at the spoilers. I'm sorry for being so useless and indecisive this game.

I'd still be happiest with the lynch-Gert-and-vig-Spidey plan, so as not to give away the finder. I've stayed way too late in the computer lab, so I'm going home now. I'll try to stay up late and finish a Gert mini-case before the lynch, even though at this point it feels like beating a dead horse. At the very least, I'd like to talk about the timing of her Day One votes. I'll admit I'm not 100% convinced. If she's evil, she's playing a very good game. (You know...almost getting lynched not withstanding. :P)

[Pebble thats Stubby]

Gert's partners wouldn't have to defend her, or mention her at all. All that they had to do was push for me. Don't you agree that say, Lany, is a likely Gert partner, based just on her insistence to lynch me?

At the begining of the day thats all Gerts partners would have to do. since then however there has been a push to lynch or Vig Gert. they prob want to de-rail that. I seam to remember that Lany has been pushing (less hard than Kat) on the Lynch and Vig both you and Gert plan today. I don't think she is worried about the order.

Mina - I don't think Spider is slightly more likely to be evil than Gert. I think its a hell of a lot more likely. + I think gert would have made a really good investigation yesterday. I'd rather have a living potential CI result on Gert than a dead one. Yes its possible that the finder did not investigate Gert and we will therefore have no info on her.

maybe I have Malc int he wrong spot, however if he vigs someone tonight as planned it kind of proves his role. and therefore unless you think we have an evil Vig his innoscence.

Sorry I have not really had time today. Its been a bussy night.

I am not going to vote out Gert today. right now I'm leaning on a Spider vote. (I will vote before I go to bed, even if I have to login at home just to do it) Although I do think the finder result on Spider is something we may want to settle the argument for future.

I can't see who would make a good Gert or Spider partner as a compramise. Meow don't really fit here and I think he's the only possible.

[Pebble thats Stubby]

Actually i was wrong about Lany. She has not really attacked Gert at least not today. Yes she mentioned her and said she would be ok with a Gert or whoever Vig but lynch spider.

Day one Gert lany interactions where minor, yes they butted heads but Gert did back off. I still don't think Gert is evil but lany could work as her partner

lany has been pushing spider lynch today she was arround in the early day one part and if partnered would prob want to distance herself from Spider.

I can see its possible she fits into both camps.

It is important we get a lynch today. But for now I am voting Lany because she fits both. I will be back before I go to bed. I will switch to spider if there are no votes other votes on Lany.

[Pebble thats Stubby]

I'm fairly sure only two votes were made since the last count, but I'm tired, and I easily could have missed one, so let me know if I did. Pretty sure this is the count though:

It is day 2.

11 players remain: Chairman Meow, Gertrude, Kat, LCOTNW, Lany Cassandra, Mentat, Mina Martell, Pebble That Hides, Ser Spidey, Sir Thursday, TheMalcolm.

6 votes are needed for a conviction or to go to night.

3 votes for Ser Spidey (TheMalcolm, Sir Thursday, Pebble That Hides)

1 vote for Gertrude (Mina Martell)

1 vote for Mina Martell (Gertrude)

6 players have not voted: Chairman Meow, Kat, LCOTNW, Lany Cassandra, Mentat, Ser Spidey.

I know it's been 5 hours since I said I'd be back in 4, but I will be back in just over 3 next time.

Just noticed you have me voting Spider. I don't remember actually voting him today, although I might have. I know I've been thinking it, its only recently I've been considering voting elsewhereand letting malc Vig him - I don't have time to check right now, but if you may have added my vote on behalf of someone else.

[TheMalcolm]

Here again. And no way I'll kill (or vote) Gert.

I trust her now, and I mostly trust Pebble for trusting Gert.

I kind of like LC's plan, but it's probably too late to follow it, with 1.5 hour left. Who is online?

[Kat]

I'm online now. Are you serious about not wanting to kill Gertrude?

I guess the only way to get rid of her is to lynch her without you then? I feel strongly about wanting her and Spider dead so we can start talking about other people.

If you prefer Gertrude alive, who would you rather kill in her absence? Are you so convinced of Spider's guilt that you're willing to put both our kills toward eliminating the possibility of a Spider team. I have to admit that I'm pretty sure Spider is evil, but not 100%.

Edit: Why are my emoticons not working?

[LCOTNW]

My tiers go like this:

Most suspicious: Spidey

Moderate suspicion: Sir Thursday, Chairman Meow, Kat, Lany, Mina, Pebble

Low suspicion: Gert, Mentat

Least suspicious: Malc

Spider has argued pretty well in his own defense today, and he is right that an innocent result would totally blow this game wide open, but that would be true of any scummy looking player headed to the gallows. It just hasn't been enough for me.

I would have believed the code if you had stuck with it and asked for a heal, etc. It's just hard to accept an argument based on the fact that you would have played better if you were evil. It's not that you didn't play well so much as you were up against being lynched on day 1 and you chose a bizarre stunt to avoid the lynch and it hasn't worked out. The only thing worse than what's happened so far is for Spider to survive to day 3 and we still don't get a finder reveal. What will the day 3 conversation look like then? I'll admit that I haven't changed my opinion on Gert, so I am not excited about a plan that lynches her and leaves Spidey alive and betting on the finder result.

The moderate tier is kind of by default for low contribution, contribution I disagree with, or just no read whatsoever. I tried to differentiate them further, but the best I can say is that Mina is probably on the bubble of moving down a tier as her posts do make her look like she is trying hard. Pebble is probably next lowest in that tier. Kat probably after that. The other three are harder.

less than 2 hours left and no clear plan of what we are doing.

Update:

6 votes are needed for a conviction or to go to night.

2 votes for Ser Spidey (TheMalcolm, Sir Thursday)

2 votes for Gertrude (Mina Martell, Spidey)

1 vote for Mina Martell (Gertrude)

1 vote for Lany (Pebbles)

5 players have not voted: Chairman Meow, Kat, LCOTNW, Lany Cassandra, Mentat.

This is the same choice as yesterday dammit!

Ser Spider

[Mina Martell]

I'm back.

:frown5:

I'm just fed up with this game now.

I know people are sick and tired of my indecisive whining by now, but this has soured me on games with no CF for the next...oh, three years or so.

I wish Spidey had so much as made one case on someone other than Gert (not counting that terrible drunk case). It would make things so much easier.

Pebble, wasn't Lany one of the first on Spidey's lynch mob on Day One? Don't you think that makes them unlikely to be partnered?

You know, normally you're more of a gut player. It's a little strange to see you voting for a player based solely on connections. Whose behaviour do you think is most suspicious?

...Okay, now I'm getting paranoid. Don't tell me you're evil--even though you don't fit as a partner to either Gert or Spidey.

(If the killers are Pebble and Spidey, this really will be a game for me to forget.)

Anyway, I'll try to stay awake for the lynch. I'll try to at least list some of the points against Gert before then.

[TheMalcolm]

Are you serious about not wanting to kill Gertrude?

Yes. Mostly, for two reasons: Piper's kill and her reaction to LC's plan.

If you prefer Gertrude alive, who would you rather kill in her absence?

Meow. There are no other sensible choice. Next best is you, since you are very much under radars.

Now, I'd prefer lynching Meow (or possibly Lany) and killing Spider, but I doubt it's possible.

[Mina Martell]

Here again. And no way I'll kill (or vote) Gert.

I trust her now, and I mostly trust Pebble for trusting Gert.

I kind of like LC's plan, but it's probably too late to follow it, with 1.5 hour left. Who is online?

Malc, do you trust her simply because she can't be partnered with Ser Spidey, or because of her behaviour today?

ETA: crossposted.

[LCOTNW]

After working on my tiers, I think the problem is that Gert just does not seem scummy to me and she definitley should not be equated with Spider in this game. I think that is being done just because she was the other lynch target on day 1. No one has really followed through with a case on her today that has been at all convincing. Plus her point about being the likely finder target from N1 is true and more valuable. The additional problem is that (other than Gert) there isn't anyone else getting consensus as a lynch target.

[TheMalcolm]

Malc, do you trust her simply because she can't be partnered with Ser Spidey, or because of her behaviour today?

Kat play rarely nowadays, but you should remember I am strong supporter of the idea that no FM would kill his best friend. I pushed this idea in three different resent games and all three times I was right, so I intend to do same fourth time.

Only variant in which Gert could kill Piper is if he was very serious threat for her partner... but, in fact, he wasn't that serious threat for anybody at all. His suspicions, except on Spidey, were rather weak, and Spidey was suspected by nearly everybody.

[Kat]

What do I have to do to be considered NOT under the radar? I've posted, for me, a lot today, and made my opinions/plans clear.

Maybe typing in a larger font would help?

Or typing in a larger font and acting more like WJ? Shit, I can't believe this, am I going to have to lay it out point by point?

Day 2: Lynch Gertrude. 10 people left.

Night 2: Vig Spider, 1 person dies. 8 people left.

Day 3: Finder hopefully reveals with 2 results. Worst case scenario is that one of the results was innocent Gertrude (from night 1) and the other is someone else innocent who died on Night 2. Still, I'm guessing that there are only 2 FM (with one a guard) so we should still have more chances to lynch more people.

I am not opposed to the idea of lynching Meow because personally, my biggest fear is that it's something like Meow/Lany as the killers, and we'd never know it. On the other hand, wouldn't it be more information to kill one of the people who has talked more (since their number of posts speaks more) and investigate the person who is more mysterious? No one in this game is a total blank slate, so having an investigation on ANYONE would be useful.

Just sayin'.

[Kat]

I disagree that Piper was a threat to no one. Piper is really good at sussing out the bad guys, and he's unpredictable in who he's going to want to lynch next. I'd say he could turn on anyone. Gertrude included. Plus in the world where she is guilty, she also has an evil partner who Piper could have suspected now or in the future.

[Mina Martell]

Yes. Mostly, for two reasons: Piper's kill and her reaction to LC's plan.

The kill I understand, but her reaction to LC's plan was just to say that she liked it. Why would that make her more likely to be innocent--particularly since the plan was the same as lynching Spidey and vigging someone else, only reversed?

And what do you think of the argument that we shouldn't narrow down the finder pool?

[Kat]

Gah, we only have an hour left??

I'm willing to lynch Spider, naturally, but that means that Mal is probably going to kill a potential partner to Spider, which is not a plan which I approve of.

So if we do that, can we please consider other suspects tomorrow? Hoping that Gertrude has been investigated? Can the game please not become so tunnelvisioned (unless of course it's justified) on just going down the list of Spider's partners? I can't believe I'm arguing against tunnelvision since that's totally been my game play style of late, but.....yeah. No.

[TheMalcolm]

I disagree that Piper was a threat to no one.

He was a threat, yes. But not that serious.

wouldn't it be more information to kill one of the people who has talked more (since their number of posts speaks more) and investigate the person who is more mysterious?

I'd be quite happy with investigating Lany.

[Mina Martell]

I am not opposed to the idea of lynching Meow because personally, my biggest fear is that it's something like Meow/Lany as the killers, and we'd never know it. On the other hand, wouldn't it be more information to kill one of the people who has talked more (since their number of posts speaks more) and investigate the person who is more mysterious? No one in this game is a total blank slate, so having an investigation on ANYONE would be useful.

Actually, wouldn't it be more useful to know the alignment of someone who talked more because it would help us find connections?