Mafia Game 74

[House Thorne]

Wythers is definitely getting an easy pass so far. That also bugs me, but I find his posts have more substance.

[House Reed]

Aack, that was crossposted. My last post was a response to Crakehall, obviously. I didn't even see Crakehall move his vote to Bracken.

Where are Reyne and Connington on that list? You wanted to ban all lynches on them yesterday.

Because I STILL trust them. :P

Those four are the players I can't pin anything on and who have done stuff that looks innocent, but still make me nervous. I have a feeling there's scum among the reasonable players.

Anyway, if my list had been perfect, I'd have died instead of Tyrell. Obviously I'm wrong about someone.

[House Connington]

meh on your reread you'll find I've used the word sympathise a few times.

Actually I didn't spot any other instances of you using the word 'sympathize' within in the game. Maybe I missed it, but your usage of the word still strikes me as a little suspicious.

I say this because in general I get a good read off Wythers and would probably put them towards the bottom of my suspect list. It's just something I'm going to keep in the back of my mind... probably more damaging to my opinion of Swyft than anyone else.

(BTW, this post was actually going to be an analysis of Wythers, with quotes and stuff that makes it look like I've got some deep profound insight, but then the board decided to go down. You'll just have to take my word for how super fantastic and ultra-contributive it would have been had I not lost my train of thought)

[House Upcliff]

The case on Vyrwel is not just that he's a run-of-the-mill lurker and needs more pressure his way. It's that when he does vote, he reaches for the low-hanging fruit. I agree with Connington. He doesn't look like an innocent struggling to catch up. Vyrwel just lies in wait for the easiest point to jump on.

Were he innocent, I'd have expected him to say something more like, "Oh, shit, I'm miles behind on this game, but Swyft is bugging me. I need to reread him to see if my vibes are coming for something." Instead, he casts an easy vote so as to look busy. He isn't looking at motivations, and is not playing at all to his potential.

That said, another reason I'm confident in my vote is simply that I haven't see anything worse from another player.

Tyrell also suspected him, so Vyrwel would have known he wasn't his symp.

I understand more after this post why you want me lynched. You're wrong, but I think I get it.

The RL issues are genuine, but more problematic is that when I do read the thread I can't get my head into the game. I read every post and think "Meh". I'd lynch me, and I wouldn't exactly be a major loss.

I've gone back to basics and done something that a bunch of you will hate - Another reread of the night kill. :P

P.S. I think you're wrong about Tyrell suspecting me. Can you please quote the post? He said he likes me in one of his posts, and I can't see any others, but I could easily have missed something.

[House Wythers]

I'm back. Skimmed. All I can say about Greyjoy is that I thought he was wishy-washy yesterday but put it down to playstyle differences (dammit Reyne, I would've pushed harder if you hadn't said your piece on being nice).

I don't much like Greyjoy, but I didn't exactly read the case on him in-depth. Got a football game to watch now (some things are more important than mafia), but I'll re-read Greyjoy and the case on him during halftime to re-evaluate my opinion. From his Day 1 behavior, he seemed hesitant and unwilling to commit, which is basically my least favorite breed of FM. Iirc, Greyjoy was busy yesterday, and I've been there (am there!), and I can understand how that makes one lose grasp of the game, and thus be a little wishy-washy in result. He was a lot wishy-washy though.

I would vote Greyjoy, but I also think he makes himself an easy target to attack. I want to see who's been pushing his buttons and how they've been going at it before board the Greyjoy express.

As of the beginning of Day 2, I felt good about Martell. I was suspicious of him early on, now I am not. His lolsy approach early on in the game felt like it was deflecting attention and playing the good friendly chap, and I didn't like that, but that's not so anymore. I will see what I think of his Day 2 behavior.

I have exceptionally bad vibes on Crakehall. I love his participation, but something about it seems off to me. Will see if I can figure out why during halftime.

[House Upcliff]

Tyrell, then.

Tyrell attacks Martell.... Kind of:

So, Martell. I think Greyjoy's "clue" was not that blatant that Martell had a need to be nervous. There's still the question why he

1) read Greyjoy's post as a possible symp clue and

2) responded to it

3) in the way he did

So is it possible that an innocent Martell would read Greyjoy's as a symp clue? His recent posts did increase the probability that this might be the case. They also explain why he responded to it: Apparently he is the responsive type of mafia player. And why did he embrace the symp clue open-heartedly instead of crying "FAKE SYMPING!"?

Exactly!

Perhaps I should have asked myself if an FM would react to a possible symp clue that way? Probably not, but I'm not so sure about Martell. Why?

Exactly!

2) I still don't vote Martell. Usually I'd be a bit more convinced that his reaction means nothing, but so far I've not been able to read Martell's personality. Let me express it this way: I think his reaction probably means nothing, but a part of my mind is playing Lews Therin ("KILL HIM!!!!!).

This isn't firm suspicion, but Martell may well have thought that Tyrell could turn on him today.

I extremely like this post of Swyft

He points out the flaws in Conningtons posts and also offers a solution to get Connington started. I am satisfied with the cock.

Tyrell loves Swyft.

Not if you suspect the wrong people. Unfortunatly that post of Swyft is the hardest piece of evidence about someone's allegiance that I have. So far.

The only other thing I have noticed is that Bracken deliberately wrote something that could be read as a symp clue. He seems to be playful, ok, but somehow an innocent shouldn't risk risk a potential case (especially when it's ME who is at the delivering end).

Doesn't like Bracken.

And hunting the easy game makes you look very useful. Grandison's first post I can see as an attempt to stir some discussion, but the second post gives me the impression that he just wanted to set up Stokeworth as a possible lynch. I just don't see that Grandison actually wants Stokeworth to say something useful or that he is interested in what the sheep is saying. Especially when I compare this with your own efforts to discuss with Stokeworth or Swyft's attempt to communicate with Connington.

Well, I probably should put my money where my mouth is, right?

Vote Grandison

Votes Grandison. First really firm suspicion.

I think Grandison mainly interacted with Stokeworth, so there's not much to say about our hidden lion.

What you're saying here about Stokeworth supports my theory. Why did Stokeworth react in a different way? Because he had been provoked. Did Wythers provoke him? No, and that's probably why Stokeworth reacted differently here. And that's also why I think Grandison appears like if he didn't care about Stokeworth's contribution, but to set him up as a lynch.

Attacks Grandison again.

For me it looks like Connington found the interaction between Bracken and my humble self weird and wanted to know if he was hunting ghosts or if someone else had the same feeling. SO he made a comment and wanted others to comment. I see no problem with that and I don't connect this with typical FM behaviour.

Defends Connington.

So you never checked if we were inventing stuff? Never had the feeling that it probably would be helpful to read the possible clue to judge if it really looked like a clue? :thumbsdown:

Then attacks Connington.

I'm inclined to vote for Connington as I have problems to see an innocent hop on case not knowing what it's exactly about.

And again attacks Connington.

1) I somehow like Vyrwel, probably because he was man enough that he is playing crappy under radar. He has to contribute more for sure.

2) Wythers is someone who I like for his discussion with Stokeworth, but then I can't remember if he did anything else. He had an easy time so far.

3) I try to be nice and to have some fun. And I have little to none clue about who is evil or not at this point of the game. No one has. So I try to ask questions and to make points that no one else has made so far.

4)I like Bracken because I enjoy his posts, but so far he hasn't done much to put him off my suspect list. I have to reread him to get a better picture, but right now I have the impression that his posts lack something. Okay, I HAVE to reread him. Something buggers me.

5) I feel better about Martell after his last posts.

6) I agree that Baratheon should be at the top tier. Lot's of innocent reads, wow. Why is Reyne on that list?

Likes Wythers, still not happy about Bracken, happier with Martell (not that the suspicion was ever really that strong), and doesn't like Baratheon.

Well, I don't think mocking someone is the basis for more and better contribution. It certainly helps to make that player looking dumb and to force some kind of overeacting.

I can also add that you didn't post that much and that you're focused on Stokeworth and Martell mainly (but of course you're willing to vote for Connington if necessary). You didn't take too many risks. Taking risks makes the game more funny, you know?

Reiterates attack on Grandison.

Connington :P

Chooses Connington over Stokeworth.

That's also something I don't like. First you announce that you're back and that you're set on lynching Stokeworth, then you're eager to close the discussion because it's circling around Stokeworth and Connington.

Connington's confession that he never looked for the symp clue, for example? After giving us the impression that he knew at least that?

Attacks Grandison again.

If you were that sure about Stokeworth, why didn't you at least try to join the alternative mob? Better to lynch someone who you're not that suspicious of than lynching the person that you're convinced of being innocent? <_<

Some fairly weak questioning of Swyft.

Grandison has to be the top suspect for a Tyrell kill, followed by Connington. Bracken and Baratheon also had some suspicion. I'd be happiest lynching one of these four today.

He felt better about Martell later on. If I was Swyft I wouldn't have killed him. I'm willing to remove Swyft from consideration for today.

[House Targaryen]

It is day 2.

11 players remain: Baratheon, Bracken, Connington, Crakehall, Grandison, Greyjoy, Martell, Reyne, Swyft., Vyrwel, Wythers.

6 votes are needed for a conviction or to go to night.

2 votes for Greyjoy (Reyne, Baratheon)

2 votes for Vyrwel (Connington, Swyft.)

1 vote for Bracken (Crakehall)

1 vote for Martell (Greyjoy)

1 vote for Swyft. (Vyrwel)

4 players have not voted: Bracken, Grandison, Martell, Wythers.

[House Wythers]

Grandison has to be the top suspect for a Tyrell kill, followed by Connington. Bracken and Baratheon also hadome suspicion. I'd be happiest lynching one of these four today.

He felt better about Martell later on. If I was Swyft I wouldn't have killed him. I'm willing to remove Swyft from consideration for today.

I'd be very disappointed with our FM if their first night kill led straight back to them.

[House Tyrell]

Sorry guys, but something just came up at work which had me tied down all afternoon. I just arrived home, so expect this post to be more uninspired than usual and allow pity and commiseration for my RL miseries to paint me in a favorable light or risk being labelled as, as Swyft eloquently puts it, meanie-poohs.

I think your characterization of Tyrell as wishy-washy is misleading.

The term is slightly overused, but I'm going to have to disagree.

I love it when people take a stance like this and then put a throwaway vote on someone who has no chance in hell of being voted off that day. He doesn't even comment on the other lynch candidate for the day, namely myself. He's perfectly content in casting a vote of Swyft where it's completely useless and doesn't force him to any controversial side-choosing.

I initially thought the same about Swyft's vote on Martell late on day one, but now I'm not sure I agree... Stokeworth was NaK, and if you're innocent (which you should be or at the very least pretend you're being) then both you and Stokeworth were poor lynch choices. Trying to push the hive-mind towards another decision was the correct choice. I think not pushing one's own cases strongly enough is a better criticism (and one I used against Tyrell) but Vyrwel never posted much in the first place so...

Lets not forget too that FM KNOW who is going to come back 'not a killer'. They can take stances like this and look good for not joining in the mob.

They can also join the mob and hide amongst the crowd. It's a point, just a rather weak one. The rest of the case on Vyrwel I think is pure WIFOM (and rather unfair).

Agree with all those who didn't like Martell's reaction to the nightkill or his attack on Baratheon. It's his utter certainty that Tyrell was the best nightkill ever and we should absolutely look at Connington today. Right now, I'd vote either him or Vyrwel, but I'd like to be fully caught up first.

Greyjoy was actually starting to grow on me...but his not following up on Connington looks pretty bad, and needs an explanation. Last night when I was rereading a bit to see people's stances on Stokeworth, I even wondered, "Hmm, I didn't notice that Greyjoy seemed to Connington more than Stokeworth," but didn't pay attention to the evolution of his suspicions.

I'm a little weirded out by how Baratheon was the first one to catch Greyjoy's contradiction...and with a formatted post-by-post reread similar to Martell's. Here's just an example of what makes me paranoid:

It's an interesting catch, though I did notice Martell is one of the players who seems to mommy Baratheon on thread, and he might be actually copying some of his expressions. Regardless I agree with you and Greyjoy that Martell's comments on Baratheon at the beginning of day 2 were very off.

You know what's throwing me off? On the one hand, he keeps being very flippant, making easy votes, and saying stuff like, "Teehee, I'm just a n00b," or "I dunno what's going on, and I'm soooooo confused." But on the other, he's playing with the conventions of the community. It would be one thing if he made lots of insightful observations, showing he was a good thinker, but also peppered them with totally naive observations like "I think X is scummy because he posts a lot." Or even if he'd said he'd read up on a lot of games before signing up.

But he knows that stuff like being "wishy-washy" and "defensive" is considered scummy. I really hate attacking someone for something like this, but it's making me paranoid that he's being coached.

This was Greyjoy's theory too. It's an interesting one.

Bracken: was there ever a point in time at which you suspected Connington? What in particular makes you trust him?

I'm not sure I did. My trust of him stemmed from a day one re-read at some point where I just felt I agreed with lots of the things he was saying. I'm not sure I like his latest stance on Vyrwel that much (Vyrwel posts very little, and that in itself can merit pressure, but I dislike the arguments made by Connington).

Just a fly-by, but I will say that I sympathise with Swyft rather than Vyrwel. Not that I agree that Baratheon is being coached, but I think Swyft's thought processes are more innocentish than Vyrwel's. I think an FM seeking to attack Bara would use something more obvious than use of the word wishy-washy to indicate coaching. On the other hand, attacking someone for going after a noob is likely to be a good FM tactic, because it's eminently defensible. I'll need to reread Vyrwel, but I think Swyft comes out well of the last couple of pages.

My big problem with Swyft is that he doesn't push his suspicions. It's like he's shy to make cases or something, which sort of conflicts with his verbose play-style. You get the impression he's kind of lying in wake waiting for something.

I well remembered Bracken as being the jovial chap, the problem is that I didn't remember him for anything else.

As far as I can tell, he didn't have a strong opinion on anyone. He had suspicions, and backed them with votes, but it felt superficial. I'm still not seeing what was so suspicious about Tyrell that he kept his vote there for so long. He also suspected Stokeworth and eventually voted, but he never gave reasons for why Tyrell was more suspicious than Stokeworth.

Well, to my chagrin they were both NaK, but I moved onto Stokeworth because he and Connington were the runner-ups for the day. Lynching him was probably a mistake, but that was hindsight I didn't really have back then.

Eh, honestly I'm not feeling the Greyjoy vote anymore. I can buy the explanation that he was torn between head and gut for now.

I'm moving on to Bracken. I feel his posts lack substance and are too superficial. As he so kindly pointed out, a Tyrell death also benefits him, so bonus.

Quite frankly, I don't have the time or the strength to come up with something you would find profound. Lynching me would do you no favors, but it would allow me to get a little more rest, so I won't hold it against you.

I'll leave a vote on Martell because I agree with the points Swyft and Greyjoy made, but if you want more meaty posts you may have to wait until later, I need a rest from staring at a computer...

[House Upcliff]

I'd be very disappointed with our FM if their first night kill led straight back to them.

You'd be disappointed in yourself? :P

[House Thorne]

Something is bugging you about me...so you WANT to be persuaded that my reaction was contrived, even though you don't think it was contrived? No, I'm sorry. You half-want to be persuaded that it was?

I can think of stuff I've done that's kind of suspicious (although I'd rather see what you come up with yourself before I help you out and give you ideas). But your thought process is utterly bizarre, and not at all what I'd associate with an innocent. If you think I'm suspicious, you shouldn't lie in wait for a case to fall from the sky.

It's not like I'm sitting here twiddling my thumbs waiting for a case to fall in my lap. You're just not high on my priority list. The main thing I have against you is a few twinges now and then and the feeling that you're relying too much on your gut. I know we all do it to an extent, but it feels like you're in gut overdrive. Your most recent post about Vyrwel was more articulated and well thought out and it was more convincing. I am very interested in hearing more from him so don't worry that I am giving him a pass.

My heart wasn't entirely in the Greyjoy argument. Well, it was when I made that post, but it was spurred by Bara's post and I did kind of zone it out yesterday. The zeal faded quick and by the time Greyjoy actually answered it, I was already rethinking it. I was actually a little worried that he accumulated so many votes so quickly - it always makes me feel as if I'm looking at low hanging fruit.

[House Pommingham]

I'm moving on to Bracken. I feel his posts lack substance and are too superficial. As he so kindly pointed out, a Tyrell death also benefits him, so bonus.

actually, this is a good point! I had meant to try and figure out how else benefits from Tyrell's death, but kinda got sidetracked.

obviously Connington. and Braken.

what about Greyjoy? they had a back and forth exchange about the symp stuff that I frankly can't follow. (see post 234)--not sure if they were on the same side or not!

Grandison is possible as Tyrell voted for him at one point (254) so, since it was early, Grandi was just knocking off potential threats that wouldn't be too obvious? IDK, this is total speculation.

he also agreed that Vyrwel was under the radar... could be the same situation as with Grandi, Vyrwel just doing some early clean up.

[and no, I have no idea if "an early clean up" is something that people generally do or if its a super-secret term that I shouldn't know, but it makes a certain sense to me. in a convoluted, chess player kinda way]

Is Crackhall now voting Bracken? could he then benefited in Tyrell's death, then? I totally got lost in my own string of suspicions with this one, that probably makes no sense but I'll still throw it out there!

and what about the people that look like they DON'T benefit from Tyrell's death? since it was early, perhaps since it was early, someone is just trying to get rid of some innocents (oh dear god I used a new word!) in a way that would not put suspicion on him. I mean, I suppose that's pretty much everyone else, though, so that train of thought isn't too helpful. Unless it was the quiet folks that were kinda under the radar... Swyft? Wythers, Vyrwel again... I'm missing someone here, I think.

Maybe I'm the opposite of Martell and prone to OMGUS (note for Baratheon: it stands for "Oh My God, You Suck!", and means when someone suspects you solely for attacking them :P).

:rofl: That's the spirit--Thank you! I didn't know that one, either. but now maybe I can use it with out sending anyone into a panic! :thumbsup:

[House Connington]

The case on Vyrwel is not just that he's a run-of-the-mill lurker and needs more pressure his way. It's that when he does vote, he reaches for the low-hanging fruit. I agree with Connington. He doesn't look like an innocent struggling to catch up. Vyrwel just lies in wait for the easiest point to jump on.

I don't think I made that point, but I do agree with it. None of his excuses as to why he hasn't been posting much have said anything about him having difficulties catching up either physically --as in playing catch up on posts-- or mentally --wrapping his head around cases/getting reads on people. He looks like he's following the game, just not contributing.

I'm quite confident in my Vyrwel vote now.

Anyway, I don't think we have all that much time left in day two, do we?

Id like to at least see where people are at in terms of who'd they like to vote for.

For me, it's Vyrwel first, Greyjoy second. Other than that I haven't really thought it out.

[House Velaryon]

I was actually a little worried that he accumulated so many votes so quickly - it always makes me feel as if I'm looking at low hanging fruit.

Nah, our cases were all within 20 minutes of each other and obviously cross-posted (no way to get that much info in under 20 minutes--I started him right after I finished Martell)

But there are better/lazier subjects oming to light now. We have no shortage of people claiming they have better things to do either. Rather disappointing actually.

[House Velaryon]

Anyway, I don't think we have all that much time left in day two, do we?

Id like to at least see where people are at in terms of who'd they like to vote for.

For me, it's Vyrwel first, Greyjoy second. Other than that I haven't really thought it out.

9.5 hours left, plenty of time, but my middle of the night.

[House Thorne]

My big problem with Swyft is that he doesn't push his suspicions. It's like he's shy to make cases or something, which sort of conflicts with his verbose play-style. You get the impression he's kind of lying in wake waiting for something.

Tell me why we shouldn't use this same line of thought against you? You suspected Tyrell and Stoke, but kept your vote on Tyrell, so I assume you felt more strongly against him. Why didn't you push your case? I know it's not the same situation as with Swyft, but you failed to push your own opinion too.

For the record, I don't think tracing the NK back to find a killer is all that reliable. It's good for supporting info, but it shouldn't be the main reason. Most of the time there is a reason someone was killed (which may not be obvious) but some killers like to sow confusion as well and don't take the 'logical' route.

[House Thorne]

Nah, our cases were all within 20 minutes of each other and obviously cross-posted (no way to get that much info in under 20 minutes--I started him right after I finished Martell)

Actually, that's the part that worries me. Bara mentions it (to be fair, Grand was on it yesterday) and we both say 'aha'. It feels easy.

[House Velaryon]

So I'd be willing to lynch Greyjoy, Grandison, Verywel, pretty much in that order. While I like and trust Crakehall (and often agree with him) I am on the fence with Bracken. When the day is done though, it's better Bracken than no lynch.

[House Pommingham]

Actually, that's the part that worries me. Bara mentions it (to be fair, Grand was on it yesterday) and we both say 'aha'.

can you explain this to me a little more? I'm just not following you. You're talking about the current Greyjoy voters, right? Grand was on what?

[House Velaryon]

can you explain this to me a little more? I'm just not following you. You're talking about the current Greyjoy voters, right? Grand was on what?

Yesterday, Grandison pointed out some problems with Greyjoy (but didn't make a case) and then this morning the 3 of us all made cases at nearly the same time.

Problem is, no one really refuted the cases. No one threw up another case to distract us, or get our votes. A partner might have done that if he saw the 3 cases pop up all at once.

No case has really been that strong to do that, meaning it's not all that likely that Greyjoy has a partner.

eta: Or it means that his partner has cut his loses.