Mafia Game 74

[House Ashford]

I haven't the faintest idea what a WIFOM is.

"Wine in front of me", from "Princess Bride" book and film.

It's code name for such things like your first reaction to Stokeworth's confession. Circular logic.

I'm struggling to figure out what the terms scum and symp refer to

"scum" is same as "evil" or "guity". You may look for definition of symp in the game rules.

[House Ashford]

Baratheon: that was easy, 8 posts only.

Arrives very late, long after start of serious phase, still votes Tyrell for RP reason.

After Stokeworth's confession, WIFOMs and immedeately leaves.

Suspects Reyne of defending Connington.

Wishy-washy about Stokeworth and Connington.

Names Stokeworth and Reyne as top suspects.

Votes Stokeworth.

Defences himself against Greyjoy.

Summary: typical newbie play, typical newbie mistakes. Nothing suspicious.

I definitely won't want him in endgame, so we need to lynch him eventually (remember, being newbie doesn't exclude being guilty), but not in next 1-2 days.

[House Targaryen]

DROWNED IN A PRIVY???????????? :tantrum:

Here is what really happend:

after hanging out with one of my cool pals

I got attacked by at least half a dozen killers (the setup is weird)

I fought valiantly, I fought nobly, I fought honorably.

I probably shouldn't have tried to hunt the bastard that was fleeing into the sewers.

Anyway: Tyrell isn't dead, he's waiting! :ph34r:

[House Tyrell]

Okay, I re-read Tyrell. On a re-read I think I can confirm my initial impression that all his posts were rather bland. The only player he suspected consistently was Grandison, and his case against him remains unconvincing (to me) despite his premature death.

Hmmmh....

I have no time right now and need to think a bit about this. Not sure if "nervous" is the right word here.

*thinks*

This is in response to Grandi's primordial vote on Martell. I must say after re-reading Tyrell I can say he was one of the main culprits of defusing the suspicions on Martell (I'll quote some relevant posts). I could easily see him as a symp to Martell (only he makes a slightly weird kill then...).

So, Martell. I think Greyjoy's "clue" was not that blatant that Martell had a need to be nervous. There's still the question why he

1) read Greyjoy's post as a possible symp clue and

2) responded to it

3) in the way he did

So is it possible that an innocent Martell would read Greyjoy's as a symp clue? His recent posts did increase the probability that this might be the case. They also explain why he responded to it: Apparently he is the responsive type of mafia player. And why did he embrace the symp clue open-heartedly instead of crying "FAKE SYMPING!"?

Perhaps I should have asked myself if an FM would react to a possible symp clue that way? Probably not, but I'm not so sure about Martell. Why?

This is the kind of wishy-washy stuff I dislike that Tyrell posted about Martell. Most of his posts seem slightly on the fence regarding him but he never votes for him and questions the suspicions of other players.

Vyrwel pointed this out:

Why so wishy washy about Martell? Is this trying to be a case or not? :unsure:

And Tyrell answers, though the answer is just as wishy-washy...

1) Agression and nervousness are evil twins. Well, at least we all now know how to ruin Grandison's day. Don't let him know what you think!

2) I still don't vote Martell. ;) Usually I'd be a bit more convinced that his reaction means nothing, but so far I've not been able to read Martell's personality. Let me express it this way: I think his reaction probably means nothing, but a part of my mind is playing Lews Therin ("KILL HIM!!!!!).

Tyrell was pretty convinced of both Stokeworth's and Connington's innocence. He only eventually voted Connington because he liked Stokewoth better, but his preferred lynch for yesterday would have obviously been Grandison. My previous remark concerning a frame on Connington was clearly wrong. It's extremely unlikely Tyrell would have supported a Connington lynch today:

For me it looks like Connington found the interaction between Bracken and my humble self weird and wanted to know if he was hunting ghosts or if someone else had the same feeling. SO he made a comment and wanted others to comment. I see no problem with that and I don't connect this with typical FM behaviour.

I think this following post is in response to Swyft questioning Tyrell about his suspicions. I'll quote it because it includes a suspicion of me in case you dig those things and for completeness's sake. He also defuses Swyft's suspicion of Martell (I think this post is after Swyft's vote for Martell, but if it isn't he'd definitely asked Tyrell what he thought about him).

1) I somehow like Vyrwel, probably because...

2) Wythers is someone who I like... He had an easy time so far.

3) I try to be nice and to have some fun. And I have little to none clue about who is evil or not at this point of the game...

4)I like Bracken because I enjoy his posts, but so far he hasn't done much to put him off my suspect list. I have to reread him to get a better picture, but right now I have the impression that his posts lack something. Okay, I HAVE to reread him. Something buggers me.

5) I feel better about Martell after his last posts.

6) I agree that Baratheon should be at the top tier. Lot's of innocent reads, wow. Why is Reyne on that list?

I have to reread Reyne, too. <_<

This is one of his last posts of significance. He mentions Martell agains but continues to be very wishy-washy:

I like this post where he is not overly agreeable. You're probably relying to his discussion with Reyne in which Reyne over-reacted whe Martell said he didn't play at his best. That makes me want to check Reyne's reaction to the Grandison-Stokeworth discussion. If he feels that bad about being attacked for playing sub-optimal, he should have sympathized with Stokeworth. Did he?

Martell could have easily accused Reyne of being overdefensive, but he didn't. Why not taking a chance like this to appear contributive?

Martell put some effort in his case against Connington. It's detailed and he even looked for the posting times. FM seldom feel the need to work that hard on day 1.

But then I thought Martell posted a lot more than he actually did. This is a point against him.

Allow me to take a page off Tyrell's book and be say that an FM Martell would probably have been nervous Tyrell suddendly turned against him (he certainly paid enough heed to him), though mostly he supported him through-out day 1 against people like Grandison or Swyft. There, wishy-washyness Tyrell would have been proud of :P

[House Yronwood]

Baratheon: that was easy, 8 posts only.

Arrives very late, long after start of serious phase, still votes Tyrell for RP reason.

After Stokeworth's confession, WIFOMs and immedeately leaves.

Suspects Reyne of defending Connington.

Wishy-washy about Stokeworth and Connington.

Names Stokeworth and Reyne as top suspects.

Votes Stokeworth.

Defences himself against Greyjoy.

Summary: typical newbie play, typical newbie mistakes. Nothing suspicious.

I definitely won't want him in endgame, so we need to lynch him eventually (remember, being newbie doesn't exclude being guilty), but not in next 1-2 days.

Yeah, sure, Martell, he's not suspicious but he's a noob so we need to lynch him. And preferably in 2 days, i-e when we may be in a bad situation.

Seriously!!!

You know the funny thing? I originally wanted to vote for Baratheon. Because I still find that his reaction to Stokey is weird for a noob. Especially if he is as clueless as Baratheon claims to be. And it makes me think Baratheon may have more informations than an innocent should.

Since I don't have time for rereads I would like to assess all players based on what I remember at the moment. I'll do that in a next post.

[House Ashford]

Yeah, sure, Martell, he's not suspicious but he's a noob so we need to lynch him. And preferably in 2 days, i-e when we may be in a bad situation.

Seriously!!!

What's wrong with that? Two days after, we will be left with 7 player and I predict they all will be not suspicious by today standarts (especially if FM will keep killing players like Tyrell...) If we won't catch a killer bifore that moment, we will have to reeavaluate people anyway.

And... It's virtually impossible to differ guilty newbie from innocent newbie, since both categories make same mistakes. It's always a lottery.

Of course, he might claim provable role or something else might happen that will let us avoid testing him. Two days is a lot, it's senseless to plan that far.

And you think I killed my own symp, seriously?

You know the funny thing? I originally wanted to vote for Baratheon. Because I still find that his reaction to Stokey is weird for a noob.

I don't really understand, do you think Baratheon lies about being newbie or what? His reaction was: totally confused. If being totally confused isn't newbiesh, I don't know what is newbiesh.

[House Yronwood]

What's wrong with that? Two days after, we will be left with 7 player and I predict they all will be not suspicious by today standarts (especially if FM will keep killing players like Tyrell...) If we won't catch a killer bifore that moment, we will have to reeavaluate people anyway.

And... It's virtually impossible to differ guilty newbie from innocent newbie, since both categories make same mistakes. It's always a lottery.

Of course, he might claim provable role or something else might happen that will let us avoid testing him. Two days is a lot, it's senseless to plan that far.

????? for the bolded part.

You really confuse me. If we don't catch a killer bu day 4, we'll be in a bad situation because if they still have a symp they are 1 lynch away from the win, so time to reevaluate, yes, time to say "let's just lynch the noob just because we have no read on him", certainly not. For me, getting rid of players because they are unhelpful/they could be a distraction/they are impossible to read is something you do at the beginning when you can afford it and if you have nothing better to do. It's certainly not a strategy for when you are close to end game.

And you think I killed my own symp, seriously?

Who was your symp? I missed something!

And can innocents have symps? :P

I don't really understand, do you think Baratheon lies about being newbie or what? His reaction was: totally confused. If being totally confused isn't newbiesh, I don't know what is newbiesh.

I don't think Baratheon lies about being a noob. I read his reaction to Stokey as an attempt at WIFOM. Bracken also seemed confused by my understanding. I would have expected an innocent noob to either vote for Stokey straight away or to be confused, but in a different way. It's not easy to explain. (that's a lot of confusion in that post). Here, I get the impression Baratheon may have inside knowledge, i-e know who the killers are, and not knowing how to react to an INNOCENT claiming evil.

[House Ashford]

If we don't catch a killer bu day 4, we'll be in a bad situation because if they still have a symp they are 1 lynch away from the win, so time to reevaluate, yes, time to say "let's just lynch the noob just because we have no read on him", certainly not.

You can either lynch him for being a noob (and, consequently, being wishy-washy, self-contradicting, etc etc) or give him free pass. Both solutions are equally huge risks.

Of course, all this is very situatoinal. If you suspect another player strongly, you never vote on the noob. But if you have no suspects?

Who was your symp? I missed something!

And can innocents have symps? :P

You evidently doubt that I am innocent, so I can have a symp from your PoV. And you've made a long post about Tyrell perfectly fitting as my symp only couple of hours ago. If I am guilty, than I've killed my very probable symp. Am I that bad player?

I would have expected an innocent noob to either vote for Stokey straight away or to be confused, but in a different way. It's not easy to explain. (that's a lot of confusion in that post). Here, I get the impression Baratheon may have inside knowledge, i-e know who the killers are, and not knowing how to react to an INNOCENT claiming evil.

Well, if he is guilty, he could just stay quiet, pretending he left some minutes earlier.

Moreover, if he isn't a symp, he couldn't know for sure that Stokey lied.

[House Targaryen]

It is day 2.

11 players remain: Baratheon, Bracken, Connington, Crakehall, Grandison, Greyjoy, Martell, Reyne, Swyft., Vyrwel, Wythers.

6 votes are needed for a conviction or to go to night.

1 vote for Martell (Greyjoy)

10 players have not voted: Baratheon, Bracken, Connington, Crakehall, Grandison, Martell, Reyne, Swyft., Vyrwel, Wythers.

[House Tyrell]

I don't think Baratheon lies about being a noob. I read his reaction to Stokey as an attempt at WIFOM. Bracken also seemed confused by my understanding. I would have expected an innocent noob to either vote for Stokey straight away or to be confused, but in a different way. It's not easy to explain. (that's a lot of confusion in that post). Here, I get the impression Baratheon may have inside knowledge, i-e know who the killers are, and not knowing how to react to an INNOCENT claiming evil.

Could you please expand on this? I went back to look at Baratheon's reaction to Stokeworth's reveal, which I'll quote while we're at it:

well, see... now you ARE supsicious. you're probably just saying that to make us think your innocent and throw us off the track. so you probably are... wait, I'm confusing myself. nevermind!

It's not too clear, but what it looks like he's saying is that he's revealing guilty to appear innocent. What you suspect is that that's too great a leap of logic for a new player to make?

Coaching from a more experienced player? Dunno...

[House Pommingham]

ok folks, am I the only one that thinks this is getting comical? or I am missing some basic concept of this game... That kind of circular reasoning (maybe you saying you want x to happen because you really want me to think you want y to happen. but maybe you want me to think that, because you really want do want x to happen. but maybe...etc) is not particularly complicated or brilliant. it was used in Princess Bride because its an easy joke. we used to play that kinda stuff in games in kids, and we joke about it now in poker games and other adult games. I can't believe that THAT is what is being used to try and prove anything about me (other than being confused at the beginning of the game!)

my reaction to the reveal was more joking than anything... I don't really understand why everyone kinda freaked out about the reveal, but I decided to accept that it (apparently) is the wrong thing to do and did the whole circular reasoning bit. my point was more who knows if he was telling the truth or not cause what did I have to base that decision on?

I think this is all a tangent. and a distraction... perhaps Greyjoy has got something to hide and just is trying to keep eyes off him...

[House Ashford]

Baratheon, do you still suspect Reyne?

[House Velaryon]

I don't have any problems with Baratheons reactions to the reveal. It's not that hard to read past games and get a few ideas.

Trying to get my tiers organized so I know where to concentrate my rereads.

[House Yronwood]

You can either lynch him for being a noob (and, consequently, being wishy-washy, self-contradicting, etc etc) or give him free pass. Both solutions are equally huge risks.

Of course, all this is very situatoinal. If you suspect another player strongly, you never vote on the noob. But if you have no suspects?

Your post didn't indicate any situational evaluation. You said "I don't want him in the end game so we have to lynch him but not now". I'm paraphrasing.

You evidently doubt that I am innocent, so I can have a symp from your PoV. And you've made a long post about Tyrell perfectly fitting as my symp only couple of hours ago. If I am guilty, than I've killed my very probable symp. Am I that bad player?

Either I suffer from schizophrenia and don't remember my own actions, either you are mistaking me for another. The only thing I posted that could be interpreted as thinking Tyrell was your symp (and I didn't say so) was when I called Tyrell on his post where he talked extensively about the potential symp clue I had made to you. Can you please find the post you're referring to?

Could you please expand on this? I went back to look at Baratheon's reaction to Stokeworth's reveal, which I'll quote while we're at it:

It's hard to explain because it's mainly a feeling. It's not so much the leap of logic as the reaction, that I don't find genuine for an innocent noob seeing someone claiming guilty. Again, I would expect either a right away vote or a confusion along the line of: "wait, are you saying you're guilty? Is it something that happens?" or something like that. The "leap of logic" as you say wouldn't be the first reaction I would expect. Maybe later but not straight away.

Now that I read it again however, I realize that I had misread something. I understood the beginning as meaning: "now that you are suspicious (i-e under suspicion) you're revealing guilty to look innocent." while he was apparently meaning that after the reveal he is suspicious. I also said I thought Baratheon was entering WIFOM territory because of the end, but apparently I'm the only one seeing the "...wait,I'm confusing myself" that way.

[House Yronwood]

ok folks, am I the only one that thinks this is getting comical? or I am missing some basic concept of this game... That kind of circular reasoning (maybe you saying you want x to happen because you really want me to think you want y to happen. but maybe you want me to think that, because you really want do want x to happen. but maybe...etc) is not particularly complicated or brilliant. it was used in Princess Bride because its an easy joke. we used to play that kinda stuff in games in kids, and we joke about it now in poker games and other adult games. I can't believe that THAT is what is being used to try and prove anything about me (other than being confused at the beginning of the game!)

my reaction to the reveal was more joking than anything... I don't really understand why everyone kinda freaked out about the reveal, but I decided to accept that it (apparently) is the wrong thing to do and did the whole circular reasoning bit. my point was more who knows if he was telling the truth or not cause what did I have to base that decision on?

I think this is all a tangent. and a distraction... perhaps Greyjoy has got something to hide and just is trying to keep eyes off him...

Fa

[House Pommingham]

Baratheon, do you still suspect Reyne?

I did, but it was based on one of his reactions to someone else. and now that I see how ridiculous Greyjoy's reaction is to my reaction, I'm rethinking everything. but then again, Greyjoy's reaction was most likely a cover for something else, so perhaps I was correct to begin with about Reyne. oh crap! we're back in the circle! [alright! everyone panic!]

I'm going back and looking at a couple of things, including Greyjoy. will come back to this...

[House Velaryon]

I don't have a very good read on 4 people, and I think all will agree they need to post a lot more: Baratheon, Vyrwel, Wythers, and Greyjoy. Of those four, right now I'd only put Greyjoy in a tier one.

I need to reread him and see why it is I have negative feelings about him.

Crakehall I am not sure where to put either. Very reasonable, but doesn't jumb out at you.

He has me the most unsure and will be my second reread. No bad feelings towards Swift, Connie or Bracken.

The person I am most suspicious of is Martell. I started looking at him last night, but fell asleep during a movie.

I've already said I think Grandison is a tier two person, but I would have him first on that tier. The main differene between him and the others on tier two is that he is there based on content, while the others are there based on lack of content.

Have I missed anyone? Anyway, those are my tiers and I'll start with the tier ones and work my way down.

edit:typing before caffiene.

[House Tyrell]

Either I suffer from schizophrenia and don't remember my own actions, either you are mistaking me for another. The only thing I posted that could be interpreted as thinking Tyrell was your symp (and I didn't say so) was when I called Tyrell on his post where he talked extensively about the potential symp clue I had made to you. Can you please find the post you're referring to?

I think the post he's referring to is my own Tyrell re-read, so he's confusing us...

It's hard to explain because it's mainly a feeling. It's not so much the leap of logic as the reaction, that I don't find genuine for an innocent noob seeing someone claiming guilty. Again, I would expect either a right away vote or a confusion along the line of: "wait, are you saying you're guilty? Is it something that happens?" or something like that. The "leap of logic" as you say wouldn't be the first reaction I would expect. Maybe later but not straight away.

Now that I read it again however, I realize that I had misread something. I understood the beginning as meaning: "now that you are suspicious (i-e under suspicion) you're revealing guilty to look innocent." while he was apparently meaning that after the reveal he is suspicious. I also said I thought Baratheon was entering WIFOM territory because of the end, but apparently I'm the only one seeing the "...wait,I'm confusing myself" that way.

That makes sense to me (finally! :P). I'm not sure I agree (Baratheon still seems more noobish-innocent to me than noobish-guilty) but I can see what you mean and where you're coming from.

[House Yronwood]

the board ate my answer to Baratheon.

Fair enough on the WIFOM thing. Your reaction seemed odd to me, and since we don't have a lot of materials to work from about you. The tiniest things and most innocuous looking ones can be used in this game. Sometimes they are indeed innocuous, sometimes they help nailing a bad guy. I'll be glad to see what more you have to bring on the table. And feel free to have a look at me.

Oh, and hello Reyne, nice to see you want me to post more cause I have the same thing to ask of you.

ETA: Baratheon is right on one thing: this has escalated to bigger proportions than I intended too, so I'll try to focus on other things. I will have less time than I thought tonight, I still hope I'll manage to do the rereads I want to do.

[House Ashford]

Your post didn't indicate any situational evaluation. You said "I don't want him in the end game so we have to lynch him but not now". I'm paraphrasing.

Ok, perhaps it was silly to say that, but I don't see how that makes me guilty. Do you think I started preparing Baratheon's lynch on Day 4 by that?

Either I suffer from schizophrenia and don't remember my own actions, either you are mistaking me for another.

Sorry, it was Bracken, not you. Post #404.

What do you think about Bracken's analysis?