A Clash of Kings Spoilers: The Starks and the War

[inkasrain]

Btw - were we EVER given a reason, like, a solid reason, for Robert screwing Stannis over with Storm's End?

What My Dog Is Named Danerys said, and I think Renly's age was also part of Robert's reasoning. As I recall, Renly was pretty young at the conclusion of the rebellion, and as such, Stannis was much better equipped to be lord over the weird castle that had belonged to the Targaryens for three hundred years. Robert made a lot of bone-headed decisions, but I don't think this is one of them; he just underestimated how badly Stannis would adapt to the castle-juggling.

[Misthaufen]

Rob could have won if

1. Greyjoy had joined his side

2. Lysa had not been such an idiot and under the control of Littlefinger

3. Stannis had attack KL rather than his brother's forces

4. Rob had maintained better control and relations with his own folks (the Karstarks, Boltons, Freys, etc.)

Greyjoy might have made the alliance if Rob had kept Theon as hostage.

Lysa killed her own husband and was an idiot so maybe nothing could have been done there.

Stannis was so fixed on the Stormlands and his "rights" that he could not see that he could have attacked KL and had a coup, giving himself a much stronger position.

The Riverlands suck to defend and control, which is why they usually were split up and divided or under the control of outsiders, such as King Harren.

[King Banhammer]

Yeah, if Lysa hadn't been under Littlefinger's little thumb, the whole story would be different.

For one thing, Jon Arryn would probably have denounced Cersei and Jaime. No idea where that would have ended up.

[Chirios]

^ Civil war probably. Cersei, Jaime and Tywin would've just denied it. No DNA test means that there's no way to no for sure. Robert would've believed it and tried to kill Cersei and Jaime, hell, he might have succeeded, but Tywin definitely would've rose in rebellion.

What if, instead of sending Theon to his fathers' lands, he sends Theon to the Reach to act as diplomat/spy, sends Catelyn back to Winterfell (demands it actually), and sends someone else to speak to the Greyjoys? Who he sends is difficult but, Robb knows full well that the Greyjoys hate the Reach almost as much as they hate the Starks. He knows also that the Reach will be marching on Kings Landing, and he has reason to suspect that the Reach won't agree to an alliance with him, but, the Greyjoys may take the opportunity to raid the Reach. So, Theon acts as spotter, sending information to his father about troop movements throughout the Reach, the Greyjoys attack the Reach, forcing Stannis and Renly to fight the Greyjoys, and each other over control of Storms End. Meanwhile, Theon goes to both Lords and says: "My Lords, we shouldn't be fighting each other, we need to fight the Lannisters" whilst taking that opportunity to find out more about each Lords strength, their alliances, the politics et cetera.

Then, Robb march around Lannister lands unchallenged. The next move would be Tywins, but he would have one of two choices: march down to the Reach and take out Stannis and Renly or, march to Lannisport and finish off Robb Stark.

[Talleyrand]

Rob could have won if

1. Greyjoy had joined his side

2. Lysa had not been such an idiot and under the control of Littlefinger

3. Stannis had attack KL rather than his brother's forces

4. Rob had maintained better control and relations with his own folks (the Karstarks, Boltons, Freys, etc.)

1. That was Balon being childish, instead of going for better pickings in the Westerlands he wants revenge for losing the last war and for the wording of Robb's message.

2. Yeah i think the Vale lords can summon 25-40,000 with them Robb could have easily marched on KL or take Tywin on open battle rather than luring him into the Westerlands and wearing him down.

3. Again that's Stannis being childish, instead of attacking KL which has 5,000 Goldcloaks and a thousand or so Lannister men he goes on as far as he was aware a suicide attack on Renly who has over 100,000 men all because he got Storms End

4. Karstark was because Cat went selfish and released Jaime and i think Bolton only wnet through because the North was lost due to Balon and Tywin getting the Tyrells thanks to Stannis. And i don't think Frey would have gone through with the RW without support from Roose

[Gurkhal]

What if, instead of sending Theon to his fathers' lands, he sends Theon to the Reach to act as diplomat/spy, sends Catelyn back to Winterfell (demands it actually), and sends someone else to speak to the Greyjoys?

I don’t think it would make much of a difference. Balon was, rightly, viewing Theon as a puppet for the Iron Throne being groomed by Eddard. He didn’t want Theon succeeding him at all, and so I doubt that he would’ve cared if Theon got hanged or not. Also his war is about revenge for his loss in the last war and theft of his heir – for which he blames Eddard Stark. Also without Catelyn I doubt that Robb would’ve fared much better. She’s definitely at most times a positive voice of reason and one that Robb can trust to never betray him.

Who he sends is difficult but, Robb knows full well that the Greyjoys hate the Reach almost as much as they hate the Starks. He knows also that the Reach will be marching on Kings Landing, and he has reason to suspect that the Reach won't agree to an alliance with him, but, the Greyjoys may take the opportunity to raid the Reach. So, Theon acts as spotter, sending information to his father about troop movements throughout the Reach, the Greyjoys attack the Reach, forcing Stannis and Renly to fight the Greyjoys, and each other over control of Storms End. Meanwhile, Theon goes to both Lords and says: "My Lords, we shouldn't be fighting each other, we need to fight the Lannisters" whilst taking that opportunity to find out more about each Lords strength, their alliances, the politics et cetera.

Do they hate the Reach or the Starks? I know that Balon hate the Starks and Euron wanted the riches of the Reach to plunder. I really doubt that anything would’ve changed on the islands.

Also in regards to Stannis, I don’t see why he wouldn’t simply have assassinated Renly, taken command and sent his men north? The Tyrells didn’t join Stannis from the first so I doubt that it would be Stannis’ problem solve raiding Ironborn.

Then, Robb march around Lannister lands unchallenged. The next move would be Tywins, but he would have one of two choices: march down to the Reach and take out Stannis and Renly or, march to Lannisport and finish off Robb Stark.

Most likely Tywin will act as in real life, as will the Tyrells and then the Reach, Westerlands, Crownlands and Stormlands goes north to finish off Robb. I don’t think that much would’ve changed in that regard.

1. That was Balon being childish, instead of going for better pickings in the Westerlands he wants revenge for losing the last war and for the wording of Robb's message.

I’d rather think that he was bitter and proud. But I also agree that he was stupied since it blew his chances for independence out of the water.

2. Yeah i think the Vale lords can summon 25-40,000 with them Robb could have easily marched on KL or take Tywin on open battle rather than luring him into the Westerlands and wearing him down.

Yes probably, if the ruler of the Vale would see great benefits in either a change of monarch or being independent.

3. Again that's Stannis being childish, instead of attacking KL which has 5,000 Goldcloaks and a thousand or so Lannister men he goes on as far as he was aware a suicide attack on Renly who has over 100,000 men all because he got Storms End

I don’t think that was very childish. He himself had around 5000 men, attacking an entire city with the same strength of the defending men would be foolish, without counting in Crownland nobles summoned to defend the capital. And even if he did capture the King’s Landing he would just be a sitting duck for both Tywin and Renly. If Tywin didn’t simple declare for Renly when Joffrey was gone and take his revenge on both Stannis and Robb, with the aid of Renly this time.

4. Karstark was because Cat went selfish and released Jaime and i think Bolton only wnet through because the North was lost due to Balon and Tywin getting the Tyrells thanks to Stannis. And i don't think Frey would have gone through with the RW without support from Roose

Nah, I blame that one on Karstark himself. He murdered to innocents as compensation for not getting to kill Jaime. I can’t see how it’s anyone’s fault by Karstark’s own.

[Rockroi]

I think Robb had tremendous advantages in the War of the Five Kings, utilized them as best he could and lost because, while he was a great battle commander, Robb was an atrocious ally.

I think Robb did several things correctly:

1. Liberated the Riverlands: It would have been an appalling mistake had Robb not relieved Riverrun. It was his mother's homeland, the closest geographic ally (the Erie was closed), provided a huge buffer to Tywin in the South, split Lannister forces, cutting Tywin in the East from Casterly Rock in the West, provided a huge boon in man-power and gave Robb a firm base of operations to continue the War in the East, west and to the South.

2. Refusal to Extend the War South: While others said that Robb should have marched south even besiege KL, this was militarily inadvisable. Robb's lines of supply would grow longer, not shorter, he would need to garrison castles and areas thus putting a strain on his manpower (which was limited) and he would be seen as an invader, not a liberator which was his roll in the Riverlands.

3. Listened to his advisers: Robb's most underrated quality was his talent for listening to those around him- Balckfish, Cat, etc.

4. Fought Battles on his terms: Self-explanatory: Whispering Woods, Siege of Riverrun, Battle of Oxcross, Siege of the Tooth, all battles fought on Robb's terms, not on anyone else's terms. Robb set the tone, pace, and tempo of his war, well to the detriment of his opponents. Once he took control he never relinquished it.

Things We Cannot Fault Robb With:

1. Failure to find allies: Its not Robb's fault that Renly and Stannis refused to recognize Robb's rebellion (they have no incentive to do so); that Lysa is in cahoots against everyone; that Balon Greyjoy is diluted. Robb's war was his own because of the North's isolation and that's not Robb's fault; that's more Ned's fault (failure to cultivate relationships with other households).

2. Dealing with the Karstarks: The up-side with having crazed Northmen as allies: they are bold fighters. The downside? They are bold about everything. Once the Karstarks rose up, Robb had no choice but to execute them. Its not realistic to do anything else. Northernment respect principled strength and to allow Karstark to run amok would have eroded that.

3. Hard-line Negotiating: Robb was forced to negotiate hard line terms with Tyrion. He could not legitimately sue for peace.

Robb's Failures:

1. Breaking His Treaty With the Freys: This one bad act ensured Robb's demise. This one act was worse than all the prior acts were good. Robb broke his treaty and his word with Frey, thus exemplifying to all around him that his word could not be trusted and gave carte blanche to Frey to seek a redress of his grievance. Robb blundered in marrying some girl he spent one night with at the expense of his cause, his men, his army, his family and his own life. Words cannot express how monumentally thoughtless and foolish this one move was. This one act brought an end to Robb's cause and lost him his war. Tywin saw the blunder and exploited it by bridging the issues of the Freys and of Lady Spicer. It was a brilliant move, one Robb Stark was helpless to prevent and hapless to foresee.

2. Failure to Reveal his Plan to Edmure: This one has already been discussed ad nausium. In a nutshell, by giving Edmure a vague order, Robb made it possible for Tywin to avoid his trap. For a plan to work, military leaders must advise their subordinates of how to operate in order to ensure the execution of said plan. Robb failed in that regard. By leaving the order so vague as to be both interpreted and misinterpreted, Robb lost his best opportunity to fight Tywin on his own terms. This kept the war from being won.

3. Failure to Properly Punish Cat: Cat freed the Kingslayer. This sparked the Karstark rebellion. While Robb could not execute his mother, he needed to do more than sequester her to her father's chamber. This was a blunder and he failed to appease the Karstarks or even understand them. Once the Rebellion started, Robb had to execute the clan. But the failure was in his inability to keep the rebellion from happening in the first place.

In the end, Robb Stark was great while on the field, horrible when anywhere else. He failed to cultivate relationship with those sworn to his cause, failed to properly enact his plans when they were so important to his own subordinates, failed to keep his word, failed to live up to a standard, and failed to properly realize how important his words and his actions were. In effect, Robb Stark failed everywhere except on the battlefield.

[Chirios]

I just realised how the Starks could have won.

You see, Robb needs the whole: King in the North thing for his men to follow him. If he openly claims that he's fighting to put Stannis or Renly on the throne then he'll be facing open rebellion from the officer class. What he needed to do was to maintain the whole: King in the North thing, but send a raven to both Renly and Stannis saying something to the effect of: I would be willing to give up the King in the North title when you conquer Kings Landing, but so long as Joffrey or his kin sit on the throne I will not renounce it. Obviously he'd need to use more vague language, add a few promises, request a few things here and there, but that's the gist that Stannis and Renly would need to get.

Secondly, he needed to explain to Edmure what his plan was, and entangle/ capture Tywin in the Riverlands. That way, when Stannis/Renly march on Kings Landing, they're much more likely to win, since Tywin will not be able to attack them in the rear.

Thirdly, with this plan, even if Stannis/Renly fails to capture Kings Landing, Robb will have Lord Tywin, he will have Lord Jaime, he will be in de facto control of the Riverlands and of the Westerlands, he would be able to use the sympathies the Lords of the Vale have to convince them to come over to his side. That'd give him control of a full 4 of the 7 Kingdoms and if the Tyrells and the Baratheons said shit he'd be free to bring all of his force to bear and crush them. He'd have the fleet of the Lannisters at his side and he'd be able to smash the Iron Islands once and for all. And if Stannis or Renly do manage to capture Kings Landing he'd be able to kneel down and say: "I was on your side all along, I sent you that letter remember?" Then he'd be able to take his sisters back to Winterfell, whilst Joffrey was tied to the back of his horse and told to keep the fuck up.

Game, Set, Match.

[Ahmrogar]

I just realised how the Starks could have won.

You see, Robb needs the whole: King in the North thing for his men to follow him. If he openly claims that he's fighting to put Stannis or Renly on the throne then he'll be facing open rebellion from the officer class. What he needed to do was to maintain the whole: King in the North thing, but send a raven to both Renly and Stannis saying something to the effect of: I would be willing to give up the King in the North title when you conquer Kings Landing, but so long as Joffrey or his kin sit on the throne I will not renounce it. Obviously he'd need to use more vague language, add a few promises, request a few things here and there, but that's the gist that Stannis and Renly would need to get.

Secondly, he needed to explain to Edmure what his plan was, and entangle/ capture Tywin in the Riverlands. That way, when Stannis/Renly march on Kings Landing, they're much more likely to win, since Tywin will not be able to attack them in the rear.

Thirdly, with this plan, even if Stannis/Renly fails to capture Kings Landing, Robb will have Lord Tywin, he will have Lord Jaime, he will be in de facto control of the Riverlands and of the Westerlands, he would be able to use the sympathies the Lords of the Vale have to convince them to come over to his side. That'd give him control of a full 4 of the 7 Kingdoms and if the Tyrells and the Baratheons said shit he'd be free to bring all of his force to bear and crush them. He'd have the fleet of the Lannisters at his side and he'd be able to smash the Iron Islands once and for all. And if Stannis or Renly do manage to capture Kings Landing he'd be able to kneel down and say: "I was on your side all along, I sent you that letter remember?" Then he'd be able to take his sisters back to Winterfell, whilst Joffrey was tied to the back of his horse and told to keep the fuck up.

Game, Set, Match.

The Lannisters have no fleet since the Greyjoy rebellion back when Robert was king, Euron burned it remember?

Also, Robb can't sway the Vale. He tried repeatedly but Lysa would not allow it, to assume differently is to deny a hard truth.

I never really believed Robb's plan would work. Even assuming Tywin was past Edmure and went back to the West, he outnumbered Robb four-to-one. I can't see any real move Robb could make solving this. This is Tywin's home turf ands with their lord back, resistance will probably stiffen up.

On top of that, several characters say basically the same thing, Robb wins his battles he's good, but he hasn't faced Tywin yet. Stafford was a dolt and Jaime was ambushed. However, Unlike Jaime Tywin is not brash and impatient, and unlike Stafford he is not careless. On top of that his army is made up of well-equipped and veteran troops in numbers and quantity Robb has not faced yet.

I'm not saying Robb will lose, but winning seems unlikely.

Anyway, it doesn't matter.

Even if Tywin fell for Robb's trick and was chasing them around the West, the realm would simply be more chaotic.

Dorne and the Vale would sit out, the Riverlands are a ruin, the North would still be being reaved by Ironborn (on a sidenote an interesting idea to consider is this, how does Robb prioritise fighting and beating the Lannisters and returning to the North to defend his home?)

Stannis would take King's Landing, but the Reach and the West still will not accept him, as we saw.

So we end up with Tyrion and Cersei dead or captured along with Joffrey, Sansa and the Redwynes. The power of the throne under Stannis, but there's still Baratheon/Lannister claimants to the throne.

So the North is still being reaved, Robb and Tywin are stuck in the West, Stannis is left in King's Landing facing the choice of what to do next, all this is fairly stable.

The rest are unknowns.

Superptimistically, Robb could ally with Stannis and become his Warden of the North in exchange for a pardon, marry Sansa to Willas to cement the tie there and, oh, say Bran or Rickon to Shireen to tie it all together. In the face of this, the Freys have to jump in line or die.

With this in mind, Dorne would probably bow to Stannis (while Targaryen loyalists, they probably won't have trouble bowing to a Baratheon) the Vale will mouth it's words and stay neutral.

The West can then be cleaned up at Stannis/Robb/Mace's leisure. They'll easily outnumber whatever force Tywin has left and may yet have Jaime. I don't really think Tywin is the 'fight to the end' kind of guy, although if he does he will lose eventually.

After that Robb is free to return to the North and quell the Ironborn. The Realm is secure and can face whatever comes their way.

Unfortunately, this is impossible.

Robb will not give up being King in the North, he makes this pretty clear. He doesn't believe anyone has the rights to the Iron Throne and so can't follow any of them. This limits his ability to make alliances. The only person who has a logical reason to support him (Balon and the Iron Islands) is too insane to realise this is a good choice.

Lysa will stay neutral.

Stannis will not accept Robb being separate and considers him a rebel, punishment is death.

Myrcella is at the very least neutral, Arianne may take the chance to crown her (she has her own motivations, but with King's Landing held by Stannis there's some basis for it) (Tommen possibly dead and Joffrey almost certainly) in which case Dorne is now divided.

The Reach is unlikely to declare for Stannis. They preferred his brother and still have a chance with (maybe Tommen) or Myrcella for a shot at the kingship, with the most men on the field there's a good reason to see them try to take it, and at the very least Loras holds no love for Stannis.

In a pessimistic or worst-case we could have Stannis fighting the Reach, Dorne divided, the North going to hell, Tywin and Robb bleeding each other. The only person unlikely to suffer any which way is the Vale, because they remain neutral.

[Hirgon]

But what if the Starks had marched on Lannisport? What if they'd taken the bulk of their army and marched hard for Casterly Rock? If they captured, or, even better, raided Casterly Rock, they'd have been be able to effectively destroy the main source of Lannister funding, and then fled back to their own lands. But, there's another problem. Tywin anticipated that effectively when he marched on Harrenhal. He would've been able to know, probably before they reached Golden Tooth, that the Starks were heading towards Casterly Rock.

I don't know. If you were Robb Stark, minus the obvious stupidity, what would you have done after capturing Riverrun?

In case it hasn't been said before, that was more or less Robb's plan. He marched to the west, and was set up to settle his army on Lannister land, between Tywin's army and Casterly Rock. The Blackfish found a great defensive position that would have allowed the Northern forces to hold off Tywin's army while raiding Lannister land. Tywin was supposed to march west through Tully lands with no contest, and have to fight at a disadvantage or starve (due to the wanton destruction of crops earlier by Clegane & co).

Everything was set to work properly, but the not-yet lord Tully spoiled the plan by disobeying direct orders to keep his army garrisoned in the castle, and instead meeting the Lannister army at the fords. In the meantime, Stannis's attack on King's Landing was inevitable, so Tywin turned his army around and went off to defend the capital.

Robb's only tactical mistake was not giving Edmure Tully the details of his plan (which he should not have had to do). Had Edmure stayed in Riverrun until Tywin passed, Tywin would have been trapped on burned land with an army in front and a force large enough to do some significant raiding behind. Stannis's attack most likely would have succeeded, and Robb would have been able to come to some terms with the new Baratheon king (whether or not they could have come to terms is another issue).

[Dragonfish]

Everything was set to work properly, but the not-yet lord Tully spoiled the plan by disobeying direct orders to keep his army garrisoned in the castle, and instead meeting the Lannister army at the fords...Robb's only tactical mistake was not giving Edmure Tully the details of his plan (which he should not have had to do).

Robb didn't tell Edmure to keep his army garrisoned in the castle, he told him to "hold Riverrun". There are numerous reasonable interpretations of that command, including engaging Tywin. Robb should have told Edmure his plans.

[Chirios]

The Lannisters have no fleet since the Greyjoy rebellion back when Robert was king, Euron burned it remember?

I didn't remember. But they still have merchant ships, and experienced sailors. Use the gold to pay off the merchant, re-equip the merchant ships as warships and have at it.

Also, Robb can't sway the Vale. He tried repeatedly but Lysa would not allow it, to assume differently is to deny a hard truth.

The plan I came up with calls for Robb to try and sway the Vale after he's captured Tywin, a plan that would've/could've worked had he explained it to Edmure. And I'm not talking about Lysa, I'm talking about the Lords of the Vale, I'm talking specifically about Bronze Yohn, who is highly sympathetic to the Starks. I'm talking about ravens and messengers in the dark, suggesting that Lysa has lost her mind, and that it would be "best" for the Vale if Robb took in Lord Arryn as a ward.

I never really believed Robb's plan would work. Even assuming Tywin was past Edmure and went back to the West, he outnumbered Robb four-to-one. I can't see any real move Robb could make solving this. This is Tywin's home turf ands with their lord back, resistance will probably stiffen up. On top of that, several characters say basically the same thing, Robb wins his battles he's good, but he hasn't faced Tywin yet. Stafford was a dolt and Jaime was ambushed. However, Unlike Jaime Tywin is not brash and impatient, and unlike Stafford he is not careless.

Look at the map. Robb doesn't need to face Tywin in a head on battle. He needs to strangle Tywin by locking him up trying to get him to march after Ribb's troops. Yes, Tywin does outnumber Robb, but most of that number is infantry. Peasants, who aren't well trained, better equipped, but badly trained. Robb has more horsemen than Tywin does, because Tywin sent nearly all of his horse with Jaime to Riverrun. So Robb has his men, on horseback, march through the Westerlands, burning as they go. The peasants of the Westerlands head north, running into Tywin's army, who are marching on foot, with no food. Meanwhile the Men of the Riverlands march into the Westerlands after Lord Tywin. All the while Robb's scouts and soldiers are bleeding Tywin with hit and run attacks. How well do you think Tywin's soldiers will fight when they haven't slept for days or weeks? When they've been marching for weeks without food or water? And when Tywin does fight Robb on the field, how long do you think they'll stand against an army that's been fighting constantly for the last year? Fighting with a charismatic general, who are well fed and who are drunk on glory and power.

Of course this requires Robb to make good decisions, but he's shown himself to be a capable tactician before and there's no reason to think he wouldn't be able to do the same.

On top of that his army is made up of well-equipped and veteran troops in numbers and quantity Robb has not faced yet.

Again, no it isn't. His troops are mostly infantry, his well equipped and veteran troops died when they fought Robb at the battle of the Trident. And as for the numbers, look at the map. The Westerlands are mostly hills and mountains, numbers only count when you can surround your enemy, something which it's going to be very, very difficult to do.

Tywin is in a very bad position if he marches on Robb, because he has numbers but Robb has maneuverablility. Which means that Robb essentially has free reign to choose the field of battle.

Anyway, it doesn't matter. Even if Tywin fell for Robb's trick and was chasing them around the West, the realm would simply be more chaotic. Dorne and the Vale would sit out, the Riverlands are a ruin, the North would still be being reaved by Ironborn (on a sidenote an interesting idea to consider is this, how does Robb prioritise fighting and beating the Lannisters and returning to the North to defend his home?) Stannis would take King's Landing, but the Reach and the West still will not accept him, as we saw.

If Tywin was captured or killed by Robb then the West wouldn't be in a position to reject Stannis. The Vale could be won over, not Lysa but certainly her bannermen who are already disgruntled by her decision not to assist Robb, the Riverlands are a ruin but they wouldn't remain so since the lord of the Riverrun would be free to head back to their lands and rebuild. The Ironborn would be a hassle until Stannis could pacify the Reach, and Robb would have to deal with that, but if Stannis wins then there's a large fleet that he has and is able to use to attack the Ironborn for breaking the Kings Peace. The merchant ships of the Lannisters could be used as a makeshift fleet, or Robb could order the building of his own fleet.

So we end up with Tyrion and Cersei dead or captured along with Joffrey, Sansa and the Redwynes. The power of the throne under Stannis, but there's still Baratheon/Lannister claimants to the throne.

No there aren't. If Stannis captures KL, he kills Joff, Tommen, Cersei, possibly Tyrion, and Myrcella. He does so because the children are "abominations borne of incest" and Cersei is a traitor. He might offer to pardon Tyrion, but Tyrion would likely refuse and die as a result.

So the North is still being reaved, Robb and Tywin are stuck in the West, Stannis is left in King's Landing facing the choice of what to do next, all this is fairly stable. The rest are unknowns. Superptimistically, Robb could ally with Stannis and become his Warden of the North in exchange for a pardon, marry Sansa to Willas to cement the tie there and, oh, say Bran or Rickon to Shireen to tie it all together. In the face of this, the Freys have to jump in line or die. With this in mind, Dorne would probably bow to Stannis (while Targaryen loyalists, they probably won't have trouble bowing to a Baratheon) the Vale will mouth it's words and stay neutral. The West can then be cleaned up at Stannis/Robb/Mace's leisure. They'll easily outnumber whatever force Tywin has left and may yet have Jaime. I don't really think Tywin is the 'fight to the end' kind of guy, although if he does he will lose eventually. After that Robb is free to return to the North and quell the Ironborn. The Realm is secure and can face whatever comes their way. Unfortunately, this is impossible. Robb will not give up being King in the North, he makes this pretty clear. He doesn't believe anyone has the rights to the Iron Throne and so can't follow any of them. This limits his ability to make alliances. The only person who has a logical reason to support him (Balon and the Iron Islands) is too insane to realise this is a good choice.

The point of the thread isn't what Robb would've done, the point is what he should've done.

Lysa will stay neutral.

The Vale only really comes into play if Stannis or Renly fail in taking Kings Landing. We know that's an option, based on Tyrions plans to destroy the fleet, but Robb doesn't know that. And if they do, Robb can point out that as a result of Jon's death Lysa has gone batshit, and that the Lords of the Vale have a duty to remove her as (regent? what's the term?) in order to make his child a strong and capable leader. He'll probably have to offer some stuff, and make it seem as though he isn't being a self-serving greedy douche, but it could be done since he knows and we know that the Lords of the Vale are very angry about not being allowed to take part in the war.

Stannis will not accept Robb being separate and considers him a rebel, punishment is death.Myrcella is at the very least neutral, Arianne may take the chance to crown her (she has her own motivations, but with King's Landing held by Stannis there's some basis for it) (Tommen possibly dead and Joffrey almost certainly) in which case Dorne is now divided.

Myrcella, Tommen and Joffrey are dead if Stannis takes KL. There's no way he'd allow them to live as they are in his words "abominations". Also if he takes Kings Landing there's no reason to believe he'd give any of them to Dorne even if he did let them live, and finally this isn't about what Robb would do, this is about what Robb should do, and one of the first things he should do is put an end to the King in the North business.

The Reach is unlikely to declare for Stannis. They preferred his brother and still have a chance with (maybe Tommen) or Myrcella for a shot at the kingship, with the most men on the field there's a good reason to see them try to take it, and at the very least Loras holds no love for Stannis. In a pessimistic or worst-case we could have Stannis fighting the Reach, Dorne divided, the North going to hell, Tywin and Robb bleeding each other. The only person unlikely to suffer any which way is the Vale, because they remain neutral.

Tommen and Myrcella are dead. Tywin would be captured/dead if Robb's plan succeeded. The North would be bleeding, but a lot more slowly than you think, the Ironborn would stop being able to bleed the North as soon as/if Robb was able to return with his army. Also, we can't assume that Stannis would take the throne. From the point of view of what Robb should have done we should concern ourselves only with what Robb knows. We know that Stannis has magic, Robb doesn't, so it's equally if not more likely that Renly would take the throne. If Renly takes the throne, Robb doesn't have to worry about the Reach, if Stannis takes the throne, Robb and Stannis will march and pacify it. If Renly takes the throne, Robb uses the Royal Navy plus any ships he can commandeer off'f the Lannister lands and pacifies the Iron Islands, if Stannis takes the throne, Robb takes the Royal Navy plus any ships he can commandeer off'f the Lannister lands and Stannis's fleet and pacifies the Iron Islands.

[zmflavius]

I didn't remember. But they still have merchant ships, and experienced sailors. Use the gold to pay off the merchant, re-equip the merchant ships as warships and have at it.

Cersei suggests this to the Tyrells when Euron begins reaving. It's rejected because a merchant ship is a merchant ship, and tend to fare poorly against purpose built warships.

The plan I came up with calls for Robb to try and sway the Vale after he's captured Tywin, a plan that would've/could've worked had he explained it to Edmure. And I'm not talking about Lysa, I'm talking about the Lords of the Vale, I'm talking specifically about Bronze Yohn, who is highly sympathetic to the Starks. I'm talking about ravens and messengers in the dark, suggesting that Lysa has lost her mind, and that it would be "best" for the Vale if Robb took in Lord Arryn as a ward.

I admit that this would be possible, but assuming he could sway the Lords of the Vale, he would not need to capture Tywin, as most of them already wanted to march. In any case, Bronze Yohn is the only person who could persuade enough of the lords to follow him out, and I really think he's too honourable to dispute Lady Lysa, who remains his de-facto liege lady in the Vale.

Look at the map. Robb doesn't need to face Tywin in a head on battle. He needs to strangle Tywin by locking him up trying to get him to march after Ribb's troops. Yes, Tywin does outnumber Robb, but most of that number is infantry. Peasants, who aren't well trained, better equipped, but badly trained. Robb has more horsemen than Tywin does, because Tywin sent nearly all of his horse with Jaime to Riverrun. So Robb has his men, on horseback, march through the Westerlands, burning as they go. The peasants of the Westerlands head north, running into Tywin's army, who are marching on foot, with no food. Meanwhile the Men of the Riverlands march into the Westerlands after Lord Tywin. All the while Robb's scouts and soldiers are bleeding Tywin with hit and run attacks. How well do you think Tywin's soldiers will fight when they haven't slept for days or weeks? When they've been marching for weeks without food or water? And when Tywin does fight Robb on the field, how long do you think they'll stand against an army that's been fighting constantly for the last year? Fighting with a charismatic general, who are well fed and who are drunk on glory and power.

Of course this requires Robb to make good decisions, but he's shown himself to be a capable tactician before and there's no reason to think he wouldn't be able to do the same.

I thought Tywin had at least 4k knights, from what Tyrion thought in the Battle of the Green fork, and Robb barely six thousand cavalry overall, including freeriders and horsed peasants. Robb also made note that Tywin had "a lot more armoured horse" when telling Catelyn his plans. So basically, they're probably actually at rough parity in terms of number of horse. Your plan ought to work in theory, but I think that Tywin, even if he's not the best military commander, as so many claim, would probably be smart enough to realize that he couldn't catch him while towing around infantry. Instead, he really ought to take his infantry to a strong defensive position like Casterly Rock, and put a competent commander there, and then withdraw with his cavalry to try and find Robb. That way, he'll have as much mobility as Robb, and still the same strength. He also lives here, unlike Robb or the Blackfish, so he also will have an easier time of choosing the battlefield, so long as he avoids engaging Robb at a battlefield picked by him or the Blackfish.

Again, no it isn't. His troops are mostly infantry, his well equipped and veteran troops died when they fought Robb at the battle of the Trident. And as for the numbers, look at the map. The Westerlands are mostly hills and mountains, numbers only count when you can surround your enemy, something which it's going to be very, very difficult to do.

Did they now? Tywin's army remained battle-capable at Stone Mill, and I'm not sure why he would have lost a disproportionate number of good troops. And mobility is also going to suck in hills and mountains as well, though the strategy I outlined above ought to remove any question of mobility anyhow.

Tywin is in a very bad position if he marches on Robb, because he has numbers but Robb has maneuverablility. Which means that Robb essentially has free reign to choose the field of battle.

Answered above.

If Tywin was captured or killed by Robb then the West wouldn't be in a position to reject Stannis. The Vale could be won over, not Lysa but certainly her bannermen who are already disgruntled by her decision not to assist Robb, the Riverlands are a ruin but they wouldn't remain so since the lord of the Riverrun would be free to head back to their lands and rebuild. The Ironborn would be a hassle until Stannis could pacify the Reach, and Robb would have to deal with that, but if Stannis wins then there's a large fleet that he has and is able to use to attack the Ironborn for breaking the Kings Peace. The merchant ships of the Lannisters could be used as a makeshift fleet, or Robb could order the building of his own fleet.

Makeshift fleet vs. Iron Fleet. Not a pretty thought. But other than that, you are right, though the problem remains of Lysa's bannermen not likely to forsake Lysa. It was one thing to defy Petyr, who was an outsider and other to defy the mother of the Lord Paramount of the Vale.

No there aren't. If Stannis captures KL, he kills Joff, Tommen, Cersei, possibly Tyrion, and Myrcella. He does so because the children are "abominations borne of incest" and Cersei is a traitor. He might offer to pardon Tyrion, but Tyrion would likely refuse and die as a result.

Myrcella is actually in Dorne by this time, and the Tyrells are unfriendly with Stannis. I think Tyrion also took action to send Tommen out of harm's way by this time, by sending him to Rosby, though I suppose it would be difficult for him to get somewhere safe.

The point of the thread isn't what Robb would've done, the point is what he should've done.

The Vale only really comes into play if Stannis or Renly fail in taking Kings Landing. We know that's an option, based on Tyrions plans to destroy the fleet, but Robb doesn't know that. And if they do, Robb can point out that as a result of Jon's death Lysa has gone batshit, and that the Lords of the Vale have a duty to remove her as (regent? what's the term?) in order to make his child a strong and capable leader. He'll probably have to offer some stuff, and make it seem as though he isn't being a self-serving greedy douche, but it could be done since he knows and we know that the Lords of the Vale are very angry about not being allowed to take part in the war.

Answered above.

Myrcella, Tommen and Joffrey are dead if Stannis takes KL. There's no way he'd allow them to live as they are in his words "abominations". Also if he takes Kings Landing there's no reason to believe he'd give any of them to Dorne even if he did let them live, and finally this isn't about what Robb would do, this is about what Robb should do, and one of the first things he should do is put an end to the King in the North business.

Answered above.

Tommen and Myrcella are dead. Tywin would be captured/dead if Robb's plan succeeded. The North would be bleeding, but a lot more slowly than you think, the Ironborn would stop being able to bleed the North as soon as/if Robb was able to return with his army. Also, we can't assume that Stannis would take the throne. From the point of view of what Robb should have done we should concern ourselves only with what Robb knows. We know that Stannis has magic, Robb doesn't, so it's equally if not more likely that Renly would take the throne. If Renly takes the throne, Robb doesn't have to worry about the Reach, if Stannis takes the throne, Robb and Stannis will march and pacify it. If Renly takes the throne, Robb uses the Royal Navy plus any ships he can commandeer off'f the Lannister lands and pacifies the Iron Islands, if Stannis takes the throne, Robb takes the Royal Navy plus any ships he can commandeer off'f the Lannister lands and Stannis's fleet and pacifies the Iron Islands.

This could happen, but if they have to pacify the Reach, the fleet of the Arbor is like to try and oppose them, and last I checked, even if Stannis had won, his fleet would still have been burned up, and consist of around a few dozen Lysene galleys. A few dozen Lysene galleys and a bunch of jury-rigged merchant ships cannot defeat any of the other two military fleet formations remaining, the Iron Fleet or the Fleet of the Arbor. The only other fleet which they could conceivably use would be the Royal Fleet, which, as I have mentioned, was burned by Tyrion.

[Chirios]

Cersei suggests this to the Tyrells when Euron begins reaving. It's rejected because a merchant ship is a merchant ship, and tend to fare poorly against purpose built warships.

Does she? I'll admit it's been a while since I read beyond COK.

I admit that this would be possible, but assuming he could sway the Lords of the Vale, he would not need to capture Tywin, as most of them already wanted to march. In any case, Bronze Yohn is the only person who could persuade enough of the lords to follow him out, and I really think he's too honourable to dispute Lady Lysa, who remains his de-facto liege lady in the Vale.

It would be best to wait until after he's captured Tywin. Then he could use their fresh troops to attack the Vale and to replenish his forces.

I thought Tywin had at least 4k knights, from what Tyrion thought in the Battle of the Green fork, and Robb barely six thousand cavalry overall, including freeriders and horsed peasants. Robb also made note that Tywin had "a lot more armoured horse" when telling Catelyn his plans. So basically, they're probably actually at rough parity in terms of number of horse. Your plan ought to work in theory, but I think that Tywin, even if he's not the best military commander, as so many claim, would probably be smart enough to realize that he couldn't catch him while towing around infantry. Instead, he really ought to take his infantry to a strong defensive position like Casterly Rock, and put a competent commander there, and then withdraw with his cavalry to try and find Robb. That way, he'll have as much mobility as Robb, and still the same strength. He also lives here, unlike Robb or the Blackfish, so he also will have an easier time of choosing the battlefield, so long as he avoids engaging Robb at a battlefield picked by him or the Blackfish.

"Armoured horse" is not the same thing as horse. And you're ignoring the different religions. Most of Robb's nobles aren't knights because to be a knight you have to be anointed with the Seven oils, and the Seven aren't as worshipped north of the Neck. Robb has about 6000 Horse, most of which by now will be lean and hard from constant marching and battle. Tywin's main, well trained horse on the other hand was smashed at the Trident. And Robb will have taken horses and supplies from Jaime Lannister's. The North is poor, so wouldn't be able to afford many freeriders, and I don't think it's wrong to guess that there are more armoured lance who are simply men of the north that can't be knighted due to their religion than there are freeriders.

Finally, look at the map. To get to Casterly Rock Tywin has to go through Riverrun and Golden Tooth, which Robb already holds. The men from Riverrun will bleed Tywin as he marches. He'll be facing serious battles in order to get to any Castle. Meanwhile Robb will be marching up to meet him. If he tries to attack Robb first then Robb will lead him in a merry dance across the countryside whilst the men from Riverrun attack him from behind. It's not possible for Tywin to deposit his force in Casterly Rock or any of the other major castles.

Did they now? Tywin's army remained battle-capable at Stone Mill, and I'm not sure why he would have lost a disproportionate number of good troops. And mobility is also going to suck in hills and mountains as well, though the strategy I outlined above ought to remove any question of mobility anyhow.

Tywin's best troops went with Jaime, well, most of his horsemen and knights at least. Battle capable is not the same as best troops. Most of Tywin's infantry are peasants, and if Robb is clever he'll take advantage of the fact that his troops are more lightly equipped and can move faster. That's what I meant by mobility. Robb simply can move faster than Tywin can. Finally, yes, Tywin knows the land, but we aren't talking about a new kingdom here, we're talking about a place that has been well mapped over the course of centuries. Because of that, Robb can pick the field of battle just as well as Tywin can.

Myrcella is actually in Dorne by this time, and the Tyrells are unfriendly with Stannis. I think Tyrion also took action to send Tommen out of harm's way by this time, by sending him to Rosby, though I suppose it would be difficult for him to get somewhere safe.

Are they? I wasn't aware. Point to you. But Robb doesn't know that Tyrion has sent the children away, so he has no reason to think about it when making his plans.

This could happen, but if they have to pacify the Reach, the fleet of the Arbor is like to try and oppose them, and last I checked, even if Stannis had won, his fleet would still have been burned up, and consist of around a few dozen Lysene galleys. A few dozen Lysene galleys and a bunch of jury-rigged merchant ships cannot defeat any of the other two military fleet formations remaining, the Iron Fleet or the Fleet of the Arbor. The only other fleet which they could conceivably use would be the Royal Fleet, which, as I have mentioned, was burned by Tyrion.

Again, we are talking about what Robb should have done, which means we have to use the information that he has. Robb is unaware of the defences prepared by Tyrion, which means he doesn't know that they're going to burn the fleet, so we should discard that from the decision.

[Young Wolf's Vanguard]

Actually, the north is not as powerful as the Reach or the Westerlands, not by a long shot. The problem of sparse population grows out of the problem that despite its size, it has neither the natural resources of the Westerlands, or the fertility or strategic location of the Reach, and due to this, no way to attract traders to bring in wealth. Their large size, if anything, only makes them around as powerful as the Riverlands, because it's the poorest and least habited part of Westeros. Balon and Lysa did also cause a great deal of Robb's misfortune, but the point is, they did cause Robb misfortune. As Littlefinger put it, 'Even the humblest of pawns sometimes refuse to make the moves you've planned for them.' Balon didn't want to help the North, he wanted to conquer it. Lysa was entirely beholden to Littlefinger, who had a vested interest in the fall of the North. Roose Bolton would rather be Warden of the North than a good and loyal bannerman. These circumstances might have been out of Robb's control, but they caused his loss anyways. Sometimes, everything does go wrong. Sometimes, life just hates you. Sometimes, a person is destined not to win. It happens.

And yes, the Red Wedding was completely atypical, though knowing Lord Frey, they probably should have seen it coming. That said, due to the factors mentioned above, Robb's cause was already lost.

i think you are wrong about North

1. a lot of trade comes from the Free Cities and Ibben to White Harbor - something to counterweight Lannisters' gold mines

2. even Asha says it was a mistake to attack North - she advices alliance with Glovers trough captured Lady Sybelle and to other houses in exchange for the fertile lands North is abundant with - she also mentions that North is well populated and that in the long run Squids have no chance - density of northern population is very low though not as low as in Vale (and maybe Dorne) but considering size its population is surpassed only by Reach and Crownlands (Westerlands are mostly hills and mountains so their population cannot beat northern)

3. someone here posted that Greyjoys held large portion of the North - why would then Asha say to Theon that Ironborn never raid far inland and that they must always be near their ships - in truth they hold eastern shore and few selected points of interest like Deepwood Motte

4. with a little luck Robb would have had support of 3 major houses and alliance with 4th - Royce urged Lysa to join Robb and Horton Redfort was at that time already training forces

5. alliance with Stannis is possible - Cat says he is young but he would agree to bend knee, wouldn't be first (Robb has had some bad decisions but give him a break,he is still kid barely of age to bear a sword (AGOT) - and he is definitely smart kid - but he is also his father's son) and i remember Stannis hesitated dooming Robb with that ritual (he did Joff and Balon without second thought)

6. NORTH WILL RISE AGAIN

[Young Wolf's Vanguard]

I think Robb had tremendous advantages in the War of the Five Kings, utilized them as best he could and lost because, while he was a great battle commander, Robb was an atrocious ally.

I think Robb did several things correctly:

1. Liberated the Riverlands: It would have been an appalling mistake had Robb not relieved Riverrun. It was his mother's homeland, the closest geographic ally (the Erie was closed), provided a huge buffer to Tywin in the South, split Lannister forces, cutting Tywin in the East from Casterly Rock in the West, provided a huge boon in man-power and gave Robb a firm base of operations to continue the War in the East, west and to the South.

2. Refusal to Extend the War South: While others said that Robb should have marched south even besiege KL, this was militarily inadvisable. Robb's lines of supply would grow longer, not shorter, he would need to garrison castles and areas thus putting a strain on his manpower (which was limited) and he would be seen as an invader, not a liberator which was his roll in the Riverlands.

3. Listened to his advisers: Robb's most underrated quality was his talent for listening to those around him- Balckfish, Cat, etc.

4. Fought Battles on his terms: Self-explanatory: Whispering Woods, Siege of Riverrun, Battle of Oxcross, Siege of the Tooth, all battles fought on Robb's terms, not on anyone else's terms. Robb set the tone, pace, and tempo of his war, well to the detriment of his opponents. Once he took control he never relinquished it.

Things We Cannot Fault Robb With:

1. Failure to find allies: Its not Robb's fault that Renly and Stannis refused to recognize Robb's rebellion (they have no incentive to do so); that Lysa is in cahoots against everyone; that Balon Greyjoy is diluted. Robb's war was his own because of the North's isolation and that's not Robb's fault; that's more Ned's fault (failure to cultivate relationships with other households).

2. Dealing with the Karstarks: The up-side with having crazed Northmen as allies: they are bold fighters. The downside? They are bold about everything. Once the Karstarks rose up, Robb had no choice but to execute them. Its not realistic to do anything else. Northernment respect principled strength and to allow Karstark to run amok would have eroded that.

3. Hard-line Negotiating: Robb was forced to negotiate hard line terms with Tyrion. He could not legitimately sue for peace.

Robb's Failures:

1. Breaking His Treaty With the Freys: This one bad act ensured Robb's demise. This one act was worse than all the prior acts were good. Robb broke his treaty and his word with Frey, thus exemplifying to all around him that his word could not be trusted and gave carte blanche to Frey to seek a redress of his grievance. Robb blundered in marrying some girl he spent one night with at the expense of his cause, his men, his army, his family and his own life. Words cannot express how monumentally thoughtless and foolish this one move was. This one act brought an end to Robb's cause and lost him his war. Tywin saw the blunder and exploited it by bridging the issues of the Freys and of Lady Spicer. It was a brilliant move, one Robb Stark was helpless to prevent and hapless to foresee.

2. Failure to Reveal his Plan to Edmure: This one has already been discussed ad nausium. In a nutshell, by giving Edmure a vague order, Robb made it possible for Tywin to avoid his trap. For a plan to work, military leaders must advise their subordinates of how to operate in order to ensure the execution of said plan. Robb failed in that regard. By leaving the order so vague as to be both interpreted and misinterpreted, Robb lost his best opportunity to fight Tywin on his own terms. This kept the war from being won.

3. Failure to Properly Punish Cat: Cat freed the Kingslayer. This sparked the Karstark rebellion. While Robb could not execute his mother, he needed to do more than sequester her to her father's chamber. This was a blunder and he failed to appease the Karstarks or even understand them. Once the Rebellion started, Robb had to execute the clan. But the failure was in his inability to keep the rebellion from happening in the first place.

In the end, Robb Stark was great while on the field, horrible when anywhere else. He failed to cultivate relationship with those sworn to his cause, failed to properly enact his plans when they were so important to his own subordinates, failed to keep his word, failed to live up to a standard, and failed to properly realize how important his words and his actions were. In effect, Robb Stark failed everywhere except on the battlefield.

sorry for double posting but

NOBODY SUMMARIZED ROBB BETTER THAN YOU

as for the last part of your post i would like to add that of all five kings Robb was forced to do hardest decisions, he simply got lousy cards and did the most he could with them (and he did realize his actions, he did cultivate proper relationships with his men - but what to do when you have pit full of vipers working behind your back)

[zmflavius]

Does she? I'll admit it's been a while since I read beyond COK.

Yeah, it's why they couldn't take back the Shield Islands instantly

It would be best to wait until after he's captured Tywin. Then he could use their fresh troops to attack the Vale and to replenish his forces.

I thought he wanted to convince the Vale to follow him?

"Armoured horse" is not the same thing as horse. And you're ignoring the different religions. Most of Robb's nobles aren't knights because to be a knight you have to be anointed with the Seven oils, and the Seven aren't as worshipped north of the Neck. Robb has about 6000 Horse, most of which by now will be lean and hard from constant marching and battle. Tywin's main, well trained horse on the other hand was smashed at the Trident. And Robb will have taken horses and supplies from Jaime Lannister's. The North is poor, so wouldn't be able to afford many freeriders, and I don't think it's wrong to guess that there are more armoured lance who are simply men of the north that can't be knighted due to their religion than there are freeriders.

I know that. Robb's armoured horse are essentially knights who don't worship the seven. if you want to get technical about it, "Tywin has more minor noblemen who wear heavy armour to battle, can use lances and swords effectively on horseback or afoot, have warhorses, and are the backbone of most Westerosi armies." This is because he's richer, and his people can afford to support more said minor noblemen who wear heavy armour to battle, can use lances and swords effectively on horseback or afoot, have warhorses, and are the backbone of most Westerosi armies. And secondly, there remains no evidence that Tywin lost a hideous number of his best-trained troops on the Green Fork. And if Robb's horse is virtually all armoured horse, because he's not rich enough to hire freeriders, then he's in an even worse situation, because Tywin flat out has a lot more armoured horse.

Finally, look at the map. To get to Casterly Rock Tywin has to go through Riverrun and Golden Tooth, which Robb already holds. The men from Riverrun will bleed Tywin as he marches. He'll be facing serious battles in order to get to any Castle. Meanwhile Robb will be marching up to meet him. If he tries to attack Robb first then Robb will lead him in a merry dance across the countryside whilst the men from Riverrun attack him from behind. It's not possible for Tywin to deposit his force in Casterly Rock or any of the other major castles.

One of our assumptions was that Edmure would sit tight, because he has only half the numbers of Tywin's force, and the only place where he can fight Tywin on equal terms would be at choke points such as the fords, which kills the purpose. Edmure is also no Blackfish, to lead lightning raids and kill outriders. And Robb doesn't hold the Golden Tooth, he slipped past it on a goat trail, because he lacks the siege engines to take the stronger keeps of the West. And finally, why is it impossible for him to simply deposit his force in a castle? Is Tywin obligated to run after Robb as soon as he starts hitting his marching column? After the Green Fork, Tywin would know better than to simply run after a "green boy." If Tywin simply doesn't give chase, then Robb would be outnumbered three to one, and unable to do anything but pick at his lines until he reaches the Rock. And don't forget that Tywin can still draw new levies from the area, while the westermen are unlikely to serve Robb until Tywin is captured/dead. Assuming they do decide to go over, just like how the Winterfell people went over to Theon as soon as he convinced everyone he'd murdered Bran and Rickon.

Tywin's best troops went with Jaime, well, most of his horsemen and knights at least. Battle capable is not the same as best troops. Most of Tywin's infantry are peasants, and if Robb is clever he'll take advantage of the fact that his troops are more lightly equipped and can move faster. That's what I meant by mobility. Robb simply can move faster than Tywin can. Finally, yes, Tywin knows the land, but we aren't talking about a new kingdom here, we're talking about a place that has been well mapped over the course of centuries. Because of that, Robb can pick the field of battle just as well as Tywin can.

Quote please. And as I said above, Tywin should not engage until he has finished depositing his infantry in the Rock, and can move with equal mobility as Robb. And if Robb's troops are more lightly equipped, wouldn't that make them less effective in a standing battle between two armies of several thousand horse?

Again, we are talking about what Robb should have done, which means we have to use the information that he has. Robb is unaware of the defences prepared by Tyrion, which means he doesn't know that they're going to burn the fleet, so we should discard that from the decision.

Are we discussing Robb's battle plans or what would happen? Robb's battle plan assumed that Tywin would simply follow his lead, and not try some unorthodox defensive strategy.

i think you are wrong about North

1. a lot of trade comes from the Free Cities and Ibben to White Harbor - something to counterweight Lannisters' gold mines

Yes, but White Harbor pales in comparison to King's Landing or Lannisport, and the Lannisters are clearly more wealthy, if they can afford to feed and field so many more knights.

2. even Asha says it was a mistake to attack North - she advices alliance with Glovers trough captured Lady Sybelle and to other houses in exchange for the fertile lands North is abundant with - she also mentions that North is well populated and that in the long run Squids have no chance - density of northern population is very low though not as low as in Vale (and maybe Dorne) but considering size its population is surpassed only by Reach and Crownlands (Westerlands are mostly hills and mountains so their population cannot beat northern)

The Iron Islands are underpopulated compared to everyone, and if the North is such an economic superpower, then why don't the books describe it as such? Even Robert, when he was coming North, was shocked by the lack of people despite the North being the size of the rest of the Seven Kingdoms. Surely you didn't actually believe that Ned was serious when he said they were too afraid to come out?

3. someone here posted that Greyjoys held large portion of the North - why would then Asha say to Theon that Ironborn never raid far inland and that they must always be near their ships - in truth they hold eastern shore and few selected points of interest like Deepwood Motte

That is so. But the loss of Winterfell meant a symbolic loss of the North.

4. with a little luck Robb would have had support of 3 major houses and alliance with 4th - Royce urged Lysa to join Robb and Horton Redfort was at that time already training forces

As we already know, no luck would have bestirred the Vale of Arryn, thanks to Petyr Baelish.

5. alliance with Stannis is possible - Cat says he is young but he would agree to bend knee, wouldn't be first (Robb has had some bad decisions but give him a break,he is still kid barely of age to bear a sword (AGOT) - and he is definitely smart kid - but he is also his father's son) and i remember Stannis hesitated dooming Robb with that ritual (he did Joff and Balon without second thought)

Only way he could have won. I agree here.

6. NORTH WILL RISE AGAIN

Touching.

[Chirios]

I thought he wanted to convince the Vale to follow him?

Meant to type the Reach. Typo. The point is, once he captures Tywin and makes peace with the Iron Throne it'd be trivial to convince the Lords of the Vale to follow him, even with Lysa's word, as they already really, really want to and their combined power would be frankly undeniable.

I know that. Robb's armoured horse are essentially knights who don't worship the seven. if you want to get technical about it, "Tywin has more minor noblemen who wear heavy armour to battle, can use lances and swords effectively on horseback or afoot, have warhorses, and are the backbone of most Westerosi armies." This is because he's richer, and his people can afford to support more said minor noblemen who wear heavy armour to battle, can use lances and swords effectively on horseback or afoot, have warhorses, and are the backbone of most Westerosi armies. And secondly, there remains no evidence that Tywin lost a hideous number of his best-trained troops on the Green Fork. And if Robb's horse is virtually all armoured horse, because he's not rich enough to hire freeriders, then he's in an even worse situation, because Tywin flat out has a lot more armoured horse.

There is. In GOT it's mentioned that he sent most of his cavalry with Jaime. That means most of his knights. The rest will be his infantry, who by nature will be less trained. Tywin has more or less equal numbers with Robb, most of which are armoured horse, but the point is that because they are armoured horse they are bogged down. Robb doesn't need to fight an open battle with Tywin, he needs to fight a guerilla war.

One of our assumptions was that Edmure would sit tight, because he has only half the numbers of Tywin's force, and the only place where he can fight Tywin on equal terms would be at choke points such as the fords, which kills the purpose. Edmure is also no Blackfish, to lead lightning raids and kill outriders. And Robb doesn't hold the Golden Tooth, he slipped past it on a goat trail, because he lacks the siege engines to take the stronger keeps of the West. And finally, why is it impossible for him to simply deposit his force in a castle? Is Tywin obligated to run after Robb as soon as he starts hitting his marching column? After the Green Fork, Tywin would know better than to simply run after a "green boy." If Tywin simply doesn't give chase, then Robb would be outnumbered three to one, and unable to do anything but pick at his lines until he reaches the Rock. And don't forget that Tywin can still draw new levies from the area, while the westermen are unlikely to serve Robb until Tywin is captured/dead. Assuming they do decide to go over, just like how the Winterfell people went over to Theon as soon as he convinced everyone he'd murdered Bran and Rickon.

No, the assumption is that Edmure would sit tight for as long as it took Tywin to enter the Westerlands, then he would march on Tywin's rear. Robb does hold the Golden Tooth, because when he slipped past it he drew it's defenders out, they attacked him, he beat them. It's impossible for Tywin to deposit his forces in a castle because most of Tywin's castles, including Casterly rock, are in areas where Robb Stark already has de facto control. Casterly Rock was the one you mentioned, but that is behind both Riverrun and Golden Tooth, Robb blocks Tywin's access to Golden Tooth and by extension to the rest of the castles in the Westerlands. Tywin simply has lost control of his own lands, that's why it was imperative for him to march. He would have to march on Robb in order to regain control of his own lands. And Edmure is no Blackfish? Then Robb shouldn't have chosen Edmure.

Quote please. And as I said above, Tywin should not engage until he has finished depositing his infantry in the Rock, and can move with equal mobility as Robb. And if Robb's troops are more lightly equipped, wouldn't that make them less effective in a standing battle between two armies of several thousand horse?

Look at the map, Robb snuck in behind Golden Tooth, drawing it's defenders out and forcing them to meet him on his terms. Tywin can't get to the Rock without crossing Robb, and by the time he crosses Robb, he's already dealing with the lord of Rivverun attacking him from behind.

Are we discussing Robb's battle plans or what would happen? Robb's battle plan assumed that Tywin would simply follow his lead, and not try some unorthodox defensive strategy.

We are talking about what Robb should have done, given the information he had at his disposal.

If Robb get's Tywin to march into the area, he can pin Tywin between in the Westerlands. Tywin would be forced to march on Robb because Robb would be burning and looting as Robb went, he wouldn't be able to feed himself because all of his food would be coming through Riverrun and all of his fields etc. would be burned. Tywin's forces would be starving and would be suffering near constant hit and run attacks on their rear. And if it came down to it, Robb would be free to choose the field of battle. Yes, heavy cavalry against light cavalry usually win, but light cavalry can run away, can tire heavy cavalry out, can lead heavy cavalry away from the field of battle. Tywin simply can't deposit his forces into a castle because he doesn't have access to his own castles, Robb has blocked his access to his castles.

[zmflavius]

Meant to type the Reach. Typo. The point is, once he captures Tywin and makes peace with the Iron Throne it'd be trivial to convince the Lords of the Vale to follow him, even with Lysa's word, as they already really, really want to and their combined power would be frankly undeniable.

In that case, you are correct

There is. In GOT it's mentioned that he sent most of his cavalry with Jaime. That means most of his knights. The rest will be his infantry, who by nature will be less trained. Tywin has more or less equal numbers with Robb, most of which are armoured horse, but the point is that because they are armoured horse they are bogged down. Robb doesn't need to fight an open battle with Tywin, he needs to fight a guerilla war.

Quote please. Also, if Robb refuses to give battle, Tywin could simply dismount his horse and hole up in a castle. Robb's own plans stipulated forcing him into a battle he would lose, but either which way, Tywin's strategy ought to consist of refusing to give battle except on his own terms.

And anyways, the way Robb uses his cavalry indicates that if they are more mobile, then it will not be to his advantage, because they are not unique enough to be counted as anything other than somewhat under-armoured heavy horse. Regardless of how light they are, Robb uses them as heavy horse, and if they really do sacrifice armour for mobility, then an attempt to attack Tywin would be asking for an Arsuf. Judging from the Blackfish's military acumen, I doubt he would do something like that, so Robb's heavy horse really is probably just heavy horse.

No, the assumption is that Edmure would sit tight for as long as it took Tywin to enter the Westerlands, then he would march on Tywin's rear. Robb does hold the Golden Tooth, because when he slipped past it he drew it's defenders out, they attacked him, he beat them. It's impossible for Tywin to deposit his forces in a castle because most of Tywin's castles, including Casterly rock, are in areas where Robb Stark already has de facto control. Casterly Rock was the one you mentioned, but that is behind both Riverrun and Golden Tooth, Robb blocks Tywin's access to Golden Tooth and by extension to the rest of the castles in the Westerlands. Tywin simply has lost control of his own lands, that's why it was imperative for him to march. He would have to march on Robb in order to regain control of his own lands. And Edmure is no Blackfish? Then Robb shouldn't have chosen Edmure.

Er, no he didn't. The Golden Tooth never fell to Robb. The plan was for Tywin to march into the westerlands, and then for Edmure to block off the Golden Tooth, possibly after summoning Bolton's aid, moving the war to the west, and forcing a decisive battle in the West. Furthermore, it would be impossible for Robb to leave enough troops to hold any keep of size without spreading his forces dangerously thin. Robb and Tywin are not playing a game of Civilization, where with an attacking army, you can simply drop one unit off a sizable attack force, and it can indefinitely hold off attackers for several turns if it has defensive bonuses, without causing damage to his own castles. On another note, ASOIAF is also unlike Civilization in that a captured city doesn't just fall into your hands and then start pumping out more troops. He has to militarily occupy people who think he's a traitor and an invader. And of course Edmure is no Blackfish. The Blackfish is a 50 year old veteran who is a brilliant general, who has spent his entire life warring, who hasn't even married because he's too busy fighting or being a soldier. The Blackfish is a brilliant tactician, and a warrior without equal. None of this applies to Edmure who has at the time of Robb's march west fought one battle which he lost, and is at best average in the field. He has no comprehension of field tactics or strategy, and is too soft-hearted to defend a castle properly. So of course, from a purely practical standpoint, Edmure was a poor choice for holding such an important castle as Riverrun. But you can't appoint someone over him in his own home.

Look at the map, Robb snuck in behind Golden Tooth, drawing it's defenders out and forcing them to meet him on his terms. Tywin can't get to the Rock without crossing Robb, and by the time he crosses Robb, he's already dealing with the lord of Rivverun attacking him from behind.

Quote where it is said that Robb captured the Golden Tooth. We only have textual quotations for him slipping past it, if anything, the text supports the Golden Tooth remaining uncaptured, as Tyrion claims that "We have no idea how your brother [talking to Sansa] got past the Golden Tooth to fight at Oxcross. The people at the Golden Tooth say that he never crossed."

We are talking about what Robb should have done, given the information he had at his disposal.

Ah, I see.

If Robb get's Tywin to march into the area, he can pin Tywin between in the Westerlands. Tywin would be forced to march on Robb because Robb would be burning and looting as Robb went, he wouldn't be able to feed himself because all of his food would be coming through Riverrun and all of his fields etc. would be burned. Tywin's forces would be starving and would be suffering near constant hit and run attacks on their rear. And if it came down to it, Robb would be free to choose the field of battle. Yes, heavy cavalry against light cavalry usually win, but light cavalry can run away, can tire heavy cavalry out, can lead heavy cavalry away from the field of battle. Tywin simply can't deposit his forces into a castle because he doesn't have access to his own castles, Robb has blocked his access to his castles.

The problem here is that 1) Casterly Rock almost certainly has stockpiles of food. Even Riverrun at the end of AFFC, despite the Riverlands being burned, had enough food to keep an army fed for two years. It's conceivable that Tywin, if he robbed his own smallfolk, could keep his army inside Casterly Rock for several months to a year. And don't put something like that past Tywin. 2) To expand on the above, Robb's cavalry is not a six-thousand strong Dothraki army which happens to be highly disciplined, but six thousand heavy cavalry and light cavalry who are too poor to afford decent armour. And Tywin has more armoured horse than Robb, we know that for a certainty. Seriously, if you're going to insist that all of Tywin's knights died at the Battle of the Green Fork, then provide a quote which says at much.

[Young Wolf's Vanguard]

@zmflavius

WH is a LOT bigger than Lannisport (LP is the size of Barrowton)- which is on the wrong side of continent to have as significant role in trade as WH and KL have.

Even if someone decides to sail around Westeros it would be easier to sell cargo in Oldtown, Lannisport is just to connect Westerlands with Oldtown and Dorne

as for upkeep of the army - they have enough gold to buy anything as long as there is anyone to sell ,but after Tywin went further and left remaining Piper and Vance's men behind it became extremely hard to find any merchant coming from the west - i think even Tywin lost a pound or two

as for population along King's Road - after it passes Twins it enters the Neck which is one big, dangerous swamp - immediately after it enters Barrowlands - hill area not as fertile as is the case with the Rills or eastern part of the North - and when passing Barrowlands it goes nowhere near Barrowton or Torrhen's Square to be able to see anyone - after Barrowlands there is only small portion of Wolfswood and then Winterfell

as for luck in the Vale - Redfort or Templeton would simply have imprisoned Lysa and acted as Robert's guardians, Royce is too loyal to question Lady Cow