House Stokeworth Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Sorry guys, really wish I hadn't signed up - have enjoyed the game, but haven't given it enough time to play properly - I should have known and I apologise.Obviously I don't think the case on me has any merit, and Jaime is my top suspect still - I think his interactions with Varys are fishy because they sound fake and also because it feels like mentat trying a new strategy after having been famed for strong distancing. I trust Tyrion and Petyr (conditional on Varys CF result obviously), and Cersei I suppose (though I missed why we all trust her now.) Sansa too strikes me as a slightly hysterical innocent and not evil. Renly I don't still suspect (see below) and I think that's everyone.I've been up for nearly 24 hours so I'm exhausted and about to fall asleep, but in case I sleep past the day end and I'm lynched, I have been the tracker so I investigated Dany on night 1 and Renly on night 2 and neither took an action in the night. I investigated these more or less at random because I didn't think the results would be much use in a heavily roled game, but I guess it means Renly is not FM.Night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Dalt Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Says my claim looks good, but in same post cast suspicions on my claim with unanswerable questions.QFT, but not much we can do about it.Why is she going there? Going to night is insane.Calls BS even though it is EXACTLY as I described it.Here she responds to Renly saying that he believes me if there is no counterclaim:Why!? Why should an innocent finder stay quiet and let a 'guilty' Petyr throw a noose around the neck of an 'innocent' Varys? She is trying to make it seem like a 'real' finder would be perfectly justifiable in remaining silent while the shit went down. Not justifiable. Not cool. Hypothetically, if I wan't innocent and a finder were to come out tomorrow the new 'finder' could be a FM and you would never be able to verify it with this lame CF. What are you trying to do here Sansa?Regarding the artful Varys comment I made at the begining of day 2. Varys brought it up as proof of my guilt to defend himself. (I'll find it and edit it in here in a sec):Isn't it? Another misunderstanding? I admit it wasn't worded well, but how did it read to you guys? Is Sansa right or feeding paranoia?Now we NEED a CF. What changed your mind about night as a viable option?ETA-I feel better about her than I did before my reread because her interactions with Tyrion looked better than I remembered. Tier 1.5Grrr. Replied instead of edit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Dalt Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Sorry guys, really wish I hadn't signed up - have enjoyed the game, but haven't given it enough time to play properly - I should have known and I apologise.Obviously I don't think the case on me has any merit, and Jaime is my top suspect still - I think his interactions with Varys are fishy because they sound fake and also because it feels like mentat trying a new strategy after having been famed for strong distancing. I trust Tyrion and Petyr (conditional on Varys CF result obviously), and Cersei I suppose (though I missed why we all trust her now.) Sansa too strikes me as a slightly hysterical innocent and not evil. Renly I don't still suspect (see below) and I think that's everyone.I've been up for nearly 24 hours so I'm exhausted and about to fall asleep, but in case I sleep past the day end and I'm lynched, I have been the tracker so I investigated Dany on night 1 and Renly on night 2 and neither took an action in the night. I investigated these more or less at random because I didn't think the results would be much use in a heavily roled game, but I guess it means Renly is not FM.Night!If you trust me you should trust Cersei. I found her not a killer last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Stokeworth Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 If you trust me you should trust Cersei. I found her not a killer last night.Oh yeh forgot about that. Cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Westerling Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Ok, so my thoughts on Tyrion. Which have absolutely nothing to do with the fact that he's been voting me for the past 2 days. :P To be clear, this is a post of highlights of Tyrion's posts that I find suspicious.My main point against Tyrion is that I think he makes a good candidate for Varys's partner, mainly based on his day 2 play pre-reveal. Varys first enters his radar because of the day 1 lynch. He then approves of Cersei making cases on Varys, Drogo, and Eddard, adding that he also wants to look into me. He has already been questioned on this and defended it, but I would like to highlight it again, particularly in context of his later posts. He proceeds to make cases on myself and Dany without voting for or even mentioning any of the three Cersei made cases on which he apparently liked and agreed with.But these are the posts that I find most interesting. The first two are directed at Varys:I suppose it was answer to first fraze of my quote?Ok, but what do you think about my case?Er, thanks, but I actually asked about my case on Dany, not on Syrio. Ok, probably not case but resume...So I understand feeling that Varys was already under pressure from other people, but that is all you have to say to someone who is one of your top suspects? Tyrion then posts his suspect list:Well, it's probaby a time to make new tiers.1)Syrio, Varis, Eddard, Daeneris.2) Baelish, Khal.3) Renly, Jaime, Jorah.4) Cersei.5) Your humble myself.Sansa will be out of tiers for a while, I still need her responce to tier her properly. Ih she won't answer, she would be nice addition to tier 1.It's clear why Dany and I are in the top tier, since he made cases on us, but I don't see anything in his posts at the time to indicate while Varys and Eddard are in the top tier while Drogo is down in tier 2. Jaime has also dropped from someone who'd "better give a reason if she [Ros] would turn up innocent" to tier 3 without explanation. Furthermore, Tyrion was just interacting directly with Varys and all he had to say was ‘did you like my case?’. No questions about his votes, no comments about the cases on Varys, no comments about Varys’s responses to those cases, no comments on Varys’s comments on his case, basically no indication that he finds anything suspicious about his game play, and no pressure on Varys.So here's the thing. If Varys is evil, then this sort of half-hearted distancing fits with what I would expect from a non-CF game. While this game does have a CF, the increasing delays in the results mean that after day 2 really, it might as well be a non-CF game. Despite the CF, I can see how an FM team would be really tempted to try to weather the first two days without heavily distancing, at which point they really wouldn’t have to worry about the CF. I mean, FM might do some distancing because they don’t want anyone drawing connections between them and they’re partner, but they don’t actually want their partner lynched because at this point in the game there’s not a strong enough pay off.On the other hand, and beware, there will be some wishy washyness here, I've agreed with a lot of what Tyrion has said today (aside from his vote on me, obviously). If Varys was actually innocent, then while Tyrion could still be guilty, I would be a lot less certain. So he's firmly in tier 1 if Varys is guilty, but only tier 2 if Baelish is.Since he has lots of votes, I'm going to reread Jorah now, and will hopefully get to Eddard in the morning. And as I hit preview post I see that Jorah is claiming tracker. Hmm.edited for clarity and because I'm sleepy and forgot a link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Westerling Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Oh there's one more question for Tyrion that I forgot to add, before I move on to Jorah.These two posts are Tyrion's reaction to the Ros lynch:Looks like you've hammered her. You'd better to give a reason if she would turn up innocent...It means you've made last vote needed to make Ros lynched. 8th vote of 14. Well, if she will turn up inno, I'll have a lot of questions to a lot of players...You seemed to really dislike the Ros lynch, and not just because you weren't on it. Obviously, analyzing voting is important, but here it sounds like you basically suspected everyone who voted for Ros (at least at that instance). So my questions are a) did I interpret that correctly? b ) what made you feel so strongly about it? and c) if you felt so strongly about it, why didn't you try to defend Ros?edit: bad board! turning my b ) into a B)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Yronwood Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 My main point against Tyrion is that I think he makes a good candidate for Varys's partner, mainly based on his day 2 play pre-reveal. Yeah, I've admited this myself in post #605. You are just parroting me here. :)You seemed to really dislike the Ros lynch, and not just because you weren't on it. Obviously, analyzing voting is important, but here it sounds like you basically suspected everyone who voted for Ros (at least at that instance). So my questions are a) did I interpret that correctly? b ) what made you feel so strongly about it? and c) if you felt so strongly about it, why didn't you try to defend Ros?a) No. I suspected mostly Varis, Khal and Eddard (as I said earlier). I suspected first and last votes (you and Jaime) far less. And I didn't suspect Sansa (and that moment) because I saw her vote as self-defence.b ) I didn't understand what was a case on Ros. Didn't understand at all. I asked about this but never got an answer.c) And I hardly could defend her not knowing the case. And it finished too suddenly. I expected another hour of discussion. What do you think about Jorah's claim? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Westerling Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Bah. Aside from the fact that he has less posts than I do, I don't really have much to say on Jorah. I still don't understand his trust for Renly on day 1 based on four posts. Though it is worth noting that in that same post he also says he trusts Varys and sticks him in one of his bottom tiers. While I wouldn't expect FM to do a lot of distancing, I would expect them to do at least some. But for the most part Jorah is a blank spot, since he's mostly not here. The role claim makes things interesting though. I'm not an expert on balance, but I could see a set up where we had a weak CF, and what is basically a weak finder, and no full finder/understudy. So if Varys turns up innocent, then I think Jorah is probably innocent as well (unless we get a counterclaim, of course). If Varys is guilty, then finder+understudy+tracker+weak CF seems like a lot. So if Varys is guilty, then Jorah is probably evil as well. I need to think about whether it is better to lynch Jorah today or to go for someone more likely to be evil in the scenario where Baelish is lying.This does force me to feel better about Tyrion (sigh, I spent a while thinking that one through too!), because my main suspicion of him is based on him being a partner for Varys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Yronwood Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 I still don't understand his trust for Renly on day 1 based on four posts. I forgot about this. And this makes tracking Renly rather unnatural.So if Varys turns up innocent, then I think Jorah is probably innocent as well (unless we get a counterclaim, of course). If Varys is guilty, then finder+understudy+tracker+weak CF seems like a lot. So if Varys is guilty, then Jorah is probably evil as well. I agree with whis logic. And so I think it will be suboptimal to lynch Jorah before seen Varis' CF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Westerling Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Yeah, I've admited this myself in post #605. You are just parroting me here. :)Am I? I have to confess, I haven't read the more recent parts of the thread all that closely. I've been focusing on pre-reveal stuff. :blushing: a) No. I suspected mostly Varis, Khal and Eddard (as I said earlier). I suspected first and last votes (you and Jaime) far less. And I didn't suspect Sansa (and that moment) because I saw her vote as self-defence.b ) I didn't understand what was a case on Ros. Didn't understand at all. I asked about this but never got an answer.c) And I hardly could defend her not knowing the case. And it finished too suddenly. I expected another hour of discussion. What do you think about Jorah's claim?Fair enough, this game certainly has been abnormal, with all these lynches not waiting until the last 10 minutes of the day. Since I seem to be in parrot mode, what do you think about Jorah's claim? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Westerling Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 I forgot about this. And this makes tracking Renly rather unnatural.At some point on day 2 he changed his mind. I think it might have been after Renly joined you in going after Sansa, though I could be wrong.I agree with whis logic. And so I think it will be suboptimal to lynch Jorah before seen Varis' CF.I think this is probably true, but it's really really late here, so my brain may not be completely functioning. My current thinking is that I don't want to lynch any of Baelish, Jorah, Cersei, or Renly without the CF result. That leaves Eddard, Drogo, Jaime, Sansa, and Tyrion (I think that's everyone). Like I said, my case on Tyrion was largely based on him being Varys's partner, which doesn't seem all that likely now. Not impossible, but Jorah is a better candidate, and frankly if we are in that scenario then I think we can afford a mistake or two. On a gut level I'm not very suspicious of Jaime. He generally seems earnest to me. I'm not sure what to make of the others just now, but I need sleep. I will be back before the end of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Yronwood Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Am I? Well, no exactly. You justified possibility of this connection much better than myself. :) But it's still queer that you chose for interrogation exactly same part of my play that somebody (myself, is this case) have mentioned.Since I seem to be in parrot mode, what do you think about Jorah's claim?At the fence now. I won't vote for him topday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Dalt Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Good god I've been reading too long. Jorah's claim paragraph didn't register with me and I quoted the thing! :stunned: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Yronwood Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 My current thinking is that I don't want to lynch any of Baelish, Jorah, Cersei, or Renly without the CF result. That leaves Eddard, Drogo, Jaime, Sansa, and Tyrion I think Sansa belongs to first list. General consensus is to lynch somebody who might be either Varis' partner or Petyr's master. Sansa is unlikely to be the latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Dalt Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Reread Khal Drogo and I'm really regretting the commitment I made to do all four rereads tonight. This shit is taking forever and I still don't have all that much to say :P I'm too tired to even want to think about the implications or truthfulness of the Jorah reveal. :bawl: Ok. Back to the Khal.Everything seems straight forward with the Khal aside from some Varys BS in posts #75-77. Could be weak ass distancing, but I doubt it. Gut is good on him. I'll put Drogo in Tier 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Dalt Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 I think Sansa belongs to first list. General consensus is to lynch somebody who might be either Varis' partner or Petyr's master. Sansa is unlikely to be the latter.When Varys turns guilty will you lynch Sansa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Yronwood Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 When Varys turns guilty will you lynch Sansa?Yes, willingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Dalt Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Read Ned.Ned you are one verbose mofo. My head hurts. Your reactions to everything seem organic. Even your recent bad feeling on me seem to come from a genuine place. Tier 3, but slightly closer to tier 2 than 4 (if that makes sense). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Targaryen Posted June 18, 2011 Author Share Posted June 18, 2011 It is day 3.10 players remain: Cersei Lannister, Eddard Stark, Jaime Lannister, Jorah Mormont, Khal Drogo, Petyr Baelish, Renly Baratheon, Sansa Stark, Syrio Forel, Tyrion Lannister.6 votes are needed for a conviction or 5 to go to night.4 votes for Jorah Mormont (Sansa Stark, Eddard Stark, Cersei Lannister, Khal Drogo)1 vote for Jaime Lannister (Jorah Mormont)1 vote for Sansa Stark (Renly Baratheon)1 vote for Syrio Forel (Tyrion Lannister)3 players have not voted: Jaime Lannister, Petyr Baelish, Syrio Forel.Around six hours left in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Dalt Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 :bang: :bang: :bang: Read Tyrion and I kind of like him too. Whatever. I haven't devoted much thought to Jorah's claim except that if he's telling it true we are unbalanced. Evil bezeker? Traitor? Evil Bulletproof? Oy, this game.Sansa.Baring some epiphany I am open to voting anyone but Cersei.ETA- Goodnight. See you at lynch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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