Mafia Game 79 - Game of Thrones Finale Party!

[House Targaryen]

It is day 3.

10 players remain: Cersei Lannister, Eddard Stark, Jaime Lannister, Jorah Mormont, Khal Drogo, Petyr Baelish, Renly Baratheon, Sansa Stark, Syrio Forel, Tyrion Lannister.

6 votes are needed for a conviction or 5 to go to night.

6 votes for Eddard Stark (Khal Drogo, Tyrion Lannister, Cersei Lannister, Sansa Stark, Syrio Forel, Renly Baratheon)

1 vote for Jaime Lannister (Jorah Mormont)

1 vote for Jorah Mormont (Eddard Stark)

1 vote for Sansa Stark (Petyr Baelish)

1 vote for Tyrion Lannister (Jaime Lannister)

Seacrest: Alright folks, we've got an exciting show for you tonight. I've gotten word that our interrogators have finally broken Lord Varys. Apparently it took longer than expected because Varys doesn't have, ah, some of the more sensitive parts that interrogators tend to focus on in these situations.

Voice Over (barely audible stage whisper): That doesn't make any sense. Conleth Hill isn't a eunuch.

Seacrest: But before the big reveal, let's get to today's highlights.

--

"So, I investigated somebody last night." offered Baelish, cautiously. He paused.

"Did you investigate me?" asked Tyrion hopefully.

Sansa rolled her eyes. "He's probably going to say he wasted his investigation on Daenerys. Or Cersei."

"Um." said Baelish, "Yeah. Cersei's innocent."

"Not helpful," said Cersei. "Now, hands up if you're a vigilante."

Immediately the players rushed to answer. Well, over the course of several hours, actually, but thanks to the magic of television, we can speed things up:

"I'm not the vig."

"I'm not the vig."

"I'm not the vig."

"I'm not the vig."

"What's a vig? I don't think I'm one."

"I'm not sure, but I tentatively believe that Renly's not a vig." said Renly, uncertainly.

Baelish nodded. "Let me check my code again - nope, I'm still an unidegrrtvdicotw, not a vig."

"Okay", nodded Cersei, thoughtfully, "Here's the plan. First, we all need to draw up suspect lists. Everybody should make two lists of suspects, and we can see where they overlap. After that, we can carefully analyse our top suspects' posts, and see how they interacted with Varys, and with Baelish."

"Sounds good to me", yawned Khal Drogo.

The players formed a menacing circle around Jorah Mormont.

"I wish I hadn't come to this party," he sighed. "I'm so tired. Oh, and I was the tracker."

Baelish nodded. "I hear what you're saying."

"Jorah's the tracker?" exclaimed Tyrion.

"Jorah's the tracker?" parroted Syrio.

"Wait, Jorah's the tracker!?" exclaimed Baelish.

"Let's lynch him tomorrow then." they decided in unison, turning back to stare at menacingly at Eddard Stark.

"But, I've been so active!" Eddard whined.

...

Eddard Stark has been lynched.

He was Harlot. Coroner Finder result will be announced on the morning of day 5.

--

Seacrest: Oh, and now for the big reveal. Now, I definitely didn't see this twist coming. Brace yourselves, folks ...

Lord Varys was a killer.

It's night. Send in you...

Voice Over: Hang on, what was that noise? Sounded a bit like somebody being violently killed just off-camera...

Petyr Baleish (Monday) is dead.

Turns out the magic of television lets you skip boring nights, too.

It is day 4.

8 players remain: Cersei Lannister, Jaime Lannister, Jorah Mormont, Khal Drogo, Renly Baratheon, Sansa Stark, Syrio Forel, Tyrion Lannister.

5 votes are needed for a conviction or 4 to go to night.

8 players have not voted: Cersei Lannister, Jaime Lannister, Jorah Mormont, Khal Drogo, Renly Baratheon, Sansa Stark, Syrio Forel, Tyrion Lannister.

Day Limit will be extended due to tomorrow being Father's Day. If people want to PM requests of good end times, Seacrest will consider them.

[House Baratheon]

Not sure if I should be happy that we got Varys or annoyed that we let Jorah survive.

I'm going to go with happy. Things just got a lot more clear.

[House Baratheon]

I've been up for nearly 24 hours so I'm exhausted and about to fall asleep, but in case I sleep past the day end and I'm lynched, I have been the tracker so I investigated Dany on night 1 and Renly on night 2 and neither took an action in the night. I investigated these more or less at random because I didn't think the results would be much use in a heavily roled game, but I guess it means Renly is not FM.

Burn! Burn! Yes you're gonna burn!

Jorah Mormont

[House Baratheon]

Oh by the way. I have a role.

I'm Bulletproof.

Wanted to wait for everyone else to reveal first, to make sure nobody would fake reveal my role. Was hoping to catch somebody in a trap. Oh well.

So yeah, I can't be killed. Looks like you're all stuck with me for the rest of the game. :D

[House Velaryon]

*deep curtsy to Lord Petyr* I hope you accept my deepest apologies, my Lord. It was just your twitching eyebrows every time you looked at me. You seemed so sinister.

[House Pommingham]

Day Limit will be extended due to tomorrow being Father's Day. If people want to PM requests of good end times, Seacrest will consider them.

More likely, tomorrow's limit will be extended due to Father's Day. Jorah.

[House Baratheon]

Just realized something awesome. After we lynch Jorah, we are going to have a full CF. Haha, take that mods!

Why? Because at most there should only be 1 evil player left in the game. So if we lynch Jorah and the game continues, then that means that Eddard was innocent (and that everyone else who has died was also innocent, and not a symp).

And for the rest of the game, we'll know that if the game continues, then the player lynched was innocent.

That said, hopefully Eddard was evil and lynching Jorah will end the game.

[House Baratheon]

Suspect list for the 3rd FM, if it wasn't Eddard

Tyrion (only as promotable symp)

Jaime

Drogo (only as promotable symp)

Syrio

[House Westerling]

Heh. I admit I'm actually surprised. The Dany kill and his Cersei investigation actually had me thinking Baelish was evil.

Anyway, Jorah.

[House Yronwood]

Apparently it took longer than expected because Varys doesn't have, ah, some of the more sensitive parts that interrogators tend to focus on in these situations.

That was a brilliant!

Lord Varys was a killer.

That was good.

Petyr Baleish (Monday) is dead.

That was bad but expectable.

Well played, Monday.

Jorah, what was your next track?

[House Baratheon]

So I think we have 2 realistic scenarios.

1) Varys + Jorah were the 2 starting FM. There was a promotable symp who is now the 3rd FM.

2) Varys + Jorah were 2 of the 3 starting FM. There's another FM still alive, who has been FM since the start of the game.

There are also 2 other possibilities that are much more unlikely.

3) Varys + 1 other FM to start. Jorah was promotable symp and became FM after Varys was lynched.

4) Varys + 1 other FM. Jorah as regular symp.

Those are both unlikely because of the distancing between Varys and Jorah on day 1-2 (before any symp would have been promoted). That distancing makes it very likely that Varys + Jorah started the game as partners.

I'm going to take a look at Jorah's posts and see if I come up with anything.

[House Velaryon]

Jorah

I missed the edit.

No night length also tells us there wasn't anything other than the FM's to wait for and they must have made things very clear that they were killing Petyr.

[House Westerling]

Those are both unlikely because of the distancing between Varys and Jorah on day 1-2 (before any symp would have been promoted). That distancing makes it very likely that Varys + Jorah started the game as partners.

I'm going to take a look at Jorah's posts and see if I come up with anything.

You've posted this already, but can you explain the distancing? I mean, Jorah says Varys could be a clever FM, but puts him in the trusted list anyway. If it's distancing it's really bad distancing. I could potentially see it as a symp clue...

I've been rereading Drogo, and mostly I am remembering why I don't suspect him. I generally either agree with his posts or can see where he's coming from.

[House Baratheon]

You've posted this already, but can you explain the distancing? I mean, Jorah says Varys could be a clever FM, but puts him in the trusted list anyway. If it's distancing it's really bad distancing. I could potentially see it as a symp clue...

I've been rereading Drogo, and mostly I am remembering why I don't suspect him. I generally either agree with his posts or can see where he's coming from.

Its distancing from Varys, not from Jorah. I've explained it in this post which is a review of Varys.

[House Westerling]

Its distancing from Varys, not from Jorah. I've explained it in this post which is a review of Varys.

Yep, just saw that. I can definitely see the distancing there, though since the distancing is largely one sided, I don't think it rules out the possibility of Jorah being a symp.

[House Yronwood]

Ok, I am ready to end Jorah at some time, but see no need for speed lynch. I like safe play.

What if we had four evils?

We never discussed a possibility of a traitor. Whilst this role is in rules. First time, I suppose.

Would our mods invent a new role just to keep it out of the game?

[House Thorne]

Oh by the way. I have a role.

I'm Bulletproof.

Wanted to wait for everyone else to reveal first, to make sure nobody would fake reveal my role. Was hoping to catch somebody in a trap. Oh well.

So yeah, I can't be killed. Looks like you're all stuck with me for the rest of the game. :D

Why would you do this? Irf you are bulletproof, you're also the only confirmed NAK Petyr gave us. You were the number one target for a night kill attempt. You would have gained us an extra day by not dying.

The only way this makes any sense to me is if you were a promoted symp, and you needed an excuse for why the killers weren't targetting you.

[House Baratheon]

Starting with day 1. This information from day 1 only matters if we started with 3 FM. If we started with a 2 FM + promotable symp scenario (and Jorah was FM), then he wouldn't have known the identity of the symp and therefore none of this would matter.

Drogo would be in my trusted list but for a niggling doubt that his comment about the FM having more to fear from the berserker (which I think is fair - the berserker is more likely to hurt us than the FM, but our individual lives still matter less) might reveal that the FM had thought about it in their cave and that was why it was foremost in Drogy-bear's thinking.

[thoughts on other players who aren't suspects]

To summarise:

Most suspicious -

Dany, Ros, Sansa

Eddard, Cersei, Drogo,

Varys, Renly,

Arya

Least suspicious.

Everyone else hasn't really impinged on me yet. I will be voting Dany

He comments on Drogo and places him at the bottom of tier 2 - basically just barely above Varys. Does not mention Tyrion, Jaime, or Syrio.

Would an FM place both of his partners in nearly the same spot? Possibly, but I think he's more likely to spread them out. Or possibly not mention one of them.

After that, the next big thing Jorah does is attack Jaime -

Apart from Tyrion, for whom you voted, and Arya and Drogo who you trust, this all seems very wishy-washy. That just by itself is genuinely suspicious to me, but not hugely so as it may be a cultural difference from your normal board; what I really don't like is how you seem to want to placate and say you trust Dany, a strong-willed player, and likewise you trust the main movers and shakers of the thread - you choose for your suspect Tyrion, a fairly safe choice for an FM to vote for, because it makes it look like you are being your own man, and not following the crowd and attempting to help the team by making a case. But the post as a whole screams suspicious and fabricated to me, so to start the day I will be voting Jaime

Could easily be distancing if they both started as FM.

That's it for day 1. Moving on to day 2. Remember this is still before any symp was promoted, so its just relevant to a 3 FM scenario.

Sorry guys. I've been reading the thread all day, but preoccupied by the fact that I was getting my finals result today (I passed :)).

I'm about to go reread day 2; right now I feel that all this Tyrion-Sansa-Renly stuff about Sansa's case on me is a lot of averblown nonsense. I made a joke in day one, Sansa didn't like it. That seems to be all there is to it, and I don't think it makes either of us look suspicious.

Refuses to agree with Tyrion's case against Sansa. Doesn't give us much information, since 2 FM partners might decide to come down on different sides of an argument.

Why so keen to defend Jaime? Why is this a completely useless first vote? I obviously thought it was a good case (and I still do) and it's important to bring in new suspects on day 2. Jaime isn't a rookie - just new to this board, as he said. For what it's worth I do still find Dany suspicious, as I can definitely see how her behaviour fits with an confident FM seeking to remain lynchable enough that it isn't suspicious that they aren't killed (as it would have been if Arya wasn't).

Also, the comment that my own actions are more suspicious than Jaime's is stupid - I can't (and obviously shouldn't) vote for myself, nor can I possibly judge my own suspiciousness. If you find me more suspicious than Jaime fine, but you can hardly expect me to agree.

Resumes his attack against Jaime. But also maintains an avenue of suspicion toward Dany.

Jaime defends himself and Jorah responds -

I feel this, because I was in a similar situation once where I just tried to give my thoughts but was shot down for being wishy-washy (I was innocent but lynched for it). This is why I said that that in itself isn't very suspicious - it still is suspicious, because opinions are easier to form if they are genuine rather thanb fabricated, so it takes a skilled FM to come across as authentically sure of something. But for future reference whether innocent or guilty act surer than you are (without being tunnel-visioned), otherwise I and otherwise will find you suspicious.

Also, of course mafia isn't easy to decide what's true and what isn't, but posting that you aren't sure what you think of someone adds nothing to the game apart from the impression that you are alive and trying, which is important to a low-posting FM.

Then Petyr reveals and Varys is lynched. Jorah is absent the whole time. When he shows up, he says -

Okay, sorry to have missed the party, was playing Civilization 4. Anyway, I completely believe the reveal and fully expect Varys to turn up evil.

Wow. We're idiots for ever even considering that Jorah was telling the truth. So dumb. I really wish I had gone back and re-read his posts this morning. Obviously, if he was the tracker, he would have argued against Petyr's reveal right away. :bang:

Now we're on to night 2 / day 3. At this point, any promotable symp would be FM, since Varys was dead.

After the revelation, I'm starting to genuinely see partnership here. Varys did blatantly defend Jaime - and Jaime here notes it, but not in a typical innocentish finding-it-suspicious way but in a meaninglessly vague this-makes-me-wonder way.

Jorah renews his attack on Jaime, but now with the added twist of Jaime and Varys looking like partners.

His reaction to Dany being nightkilled instead of Petyr -

Um, that's odd. Nice, since I suspected and didn't much like Dany, but I fully expected Petyr to die in the night. I guess my top suspects are now Renly and Jaime for the points I raised against them both yesterday, but I'll do some rereads in abit (this might be a long bit, I'm afriad).

I am also not in favour of lynching Petyr today unless he trips up in a new way, and waiting till we get the Varys result.

Once again, repeats that Jaime is his top suspect (along with Renly who is now PI).

Why the hell would he list Renly as a suspect if he had actually known that Renly wasn't active in the night? Arggh. I can't believe we didn't lynch him.

Sorry guys, really wish I hadn't signed up - have enjoyed the game, but haven't given it enough time to play properly - I should have known and I apologise.

Obviously I don't think the case on me has any merit, and Jaime is my top suspect still - I think his interactions with Varys are fishy because they sound fake and also because it feels like mentat trying a new strategy after having been famed for strong distancing. I trust Tyrion and Petyr (conditional on Varys CF result obviously), and Cersei I suppose (though I missed why we all trust her now.) Sansa too strikes me as a slightly hysterical innocent and not evil. Renly I don't still suspect (see below) and I think that's everyone.

I've been up for nearly 24 hours so I'm exhausted and about to fall asleep, but in case I sleep past the day end and I'm lynched, I have been the tracker so I investigated Dany on night 1 and Renly on night 2 and neither took an action in the night. I investigated these more or less at random because I didn't think the results would be much use in a heavily roled game, but I guess it means Renly is not FM.

Night!

That's his awful claim. And yet again, he brings up that Jaime is his top suspect.

What are thoughts on a Jaime lynch Petyr?

And finally, he asks Petyr for thoughts on a Jaime lynch.

Conclusion

He never mentions Tyrion or Syrio. No distancing there at all, at least from this end of the analysis.

He puts Drogo in his middle tiers on day 1, but doesn't bring him up again. So he also falls into the no distancing category.

And then on the opposite end of the spectrum, he spends almost the entire game going after Jaime. Very heavy distancing. But at no risk, really, if they are partners. Because Jaime was never in danger from the rest of the group and nobody was going to follow Jorah's case given the minimal effort he put into it.

[House Baratheon]

Why would you do this? Irf you are bulletproof, you're also the only confirmed NAK Petyr gave us. You were the number one target for a night kill attempt. You would have gained us an extra day by not dying.

The only way this makes any sense to me is if you were a promoted symp, and you needed an excuse for why the killers weren't targetting you.

I felt it was important to get all of our information out on the table.

[House Thorne]

I felt it was important to get all of our information out on the table.

You were wrong.