[ADwD Spoilers] Is Varys on Team Blackfyre?

[tze]

What I don't understand about this theory is why Varys would have to lie in the first place if Aegon was a Blackfyre.

As Aegon Blackfyre, he has just as solid a claim on the throne as a Baratheon, and an even better one than a Lannister.

The entire purpose of Robert's Rebellion was to overthrow the Targaryens. Robert's claim wasn't that he had a better genetic claim to the throne than Aerys or Rhaegar, but that the Targs themselves just had to go. (Yes, Robert had a Targ grandmother, but he never self-identified as a Targaryen, and his Targ blood was more a last-ditch effort to maintain some kind of continuity than it was any attempt to maintain House Targaryen's primacy.) Not to mention, the entire realm, Targ loyalists included, had been fighting Blackfyre Rebellions for a century,so announcing a new Blackfyre would have just united the entire realm behind Robert against the Blackfyres.

Also, Varys tried to save Aerys from Tywin Lannister's host entering the city and betraying him. Why would he try to save him if he was a Blackfyre loyalist?

The same reason he tried to forestall the Stark/Lannister war: his plans weren't yet ripe. Not to mention, he had no way of guaranteeing that his own head wouldn't end up on a spike.

[CrypticWeirwood]

Not to mention, the entire realm, Targ loyalists included, had been fighting Blackfyre Rebellions for a century,so announcing a new Blackfyre would have just united the entire realm behind Robert against the Blackfyres.

Which is a good reason not to do so now. Even if Aegon is somehow a Blackfyre through the distaff side, everyone involved has every reason to hide that.

[Lord Varys]

Despite the fact that the Targaryen dynasty was overthrown, Varys did survive the sack. He evaded Gregor's men and other looters successfully, and nobody can doubt that Varys would have even survived Aerys burning KL to the ground. He knows the secret passages. He was (and would have been) save down in his secret chambers. With or without Aegon Targaryen.

As to a secret Blackfyre restoration project before Robert's Rebellion: As of yet, there is no hint that such a plan was set in motion. Illyrio Mopatis would have been a rather poor pretender for the Iron Throne. Even if he was the legitimate son of Maelys's sister. It was the death (or the apparent death) of Rhaegar Targaryen's son which made this plan possible. Aegon's chance to seize the throne is the fact that he is (or is supposed to be) the legitimate son and heir of beloved Rhaegar.

If Varys and Illyrio had a Blackfyre plot in motion back during Aerys's reign, I guess they would have tried to get the Golden Company and their pretender into Westeros during the war. Robert only became a pretender late during the war. A Blackfyre pretender siding with Jon Arryn might have been a better figurehead for the rebellion.

[merchantkingpriest]

Varys wouldn't have survived Aerys' fire. He had the whole city loaded with Wildfyre and as crafty as Varys is he isn't a wizard. Aerys' plan was to raze King's Landing to the ground, secret passages and all.

[Lord Varys]

Yeah, well, if you remember AGoT, there is a secret well deep within the Red Keep. We see Varys and Illyrio ascending that well through Arya's eyes. When they leave the well, Varys closes its opening with a huge rock coming down from the ceiling. I guess you would survive even the wildfire apocalypse of King's Landing down that well (I strongly suspect that Varys's secret base of operations is down there). Especially as would have had the means to prevent the wildfire from being placed to close to his own lairs. His birds would have known about Rossart's plans, and they would have had time enough to remove the 'dangerous fruits' from the dungeons of the Red Keep. I guess this actually happened. As far as I remember Hallyne never talked about wildfire findings beneath the Red Keep. Beneath the Great Sept and the Dragonpit, yes. but not beneath the Red Keep.

If Varys controls this dangerously ripe wildfire to this day, I guess King Tommen is going to leave the world on a spectacular pyre...

[CrypticWeirwood]

Yeah, well, if you remember AGoT, there is a secret well deep within the Red Keep. We see Varys and Illyrio ascending that well through Arya's eyes. When they leave the well, Varys closes its opening with a huge rock coming down from the ceiling. I guess you would survive even the wildfire apocalypse of King's Landing down that well (I strongly suspect that Varys's secret base of operations is down there).

Bingo! That explains why his official quarters are so Spartan. He can’t keep anything important there. He must have a secret sanctuary somewhere else where all his records and treasures and costumery lie in secure storage.

[Kadence]

I think we can pretty much close the book on this theory, yes Varys is almost for sure in on Team Blackfyre. There's not much mystery on Aegon left - he's Illyrio and Serra's son and the heir to the Blackfyre female line via Serra. This was already quite likely and becomes virtually certain to be true after this post in which Ran says that the original chapter had a longer conversation between Tyrion and Illyrio, with much more on Maelys and the Blackfyres. That was presumably removed since this would make Aegon's parentage "too obvious" and Martin didn't want to give Aegon's parentage away too early like he did Jon's.

Just what Serra's relationship to Maelys is we can only speculate but I have extremely little doubt that Aegon was Serra's child. There's just way too much indicating Illyrio+Serra=Aegon, and Illyrio's motives to sacrifice his beloved wife's son to be raised by strangers for some lunatic baby switch scheme are inexplicable without Serra being the Blackfyre heir. Blackheart Toyne is the real key - people overlook him completely yet his actions make it clear that the Golden Company was not for a Targaryen restoration because they would have picked the young Viserys, not some infant boy with no proof of identity. Blackheart was secretly backing the Blackfyre female line, not Targs.

The mystery is on Varys and why he's on Team Blackfyre at this point - not if. I still believe in my earlier speculation of Varys being Serra's brother or close relative, although I'm not fully confident. But Varys being related to Serra explains every single mystery about Varys so I would bet on it. It explains his anti-Aerys, zestily pro-Aegon yet half-heartedly pro Viserys/Dany actions, his shaved head (probably silver blonde, and the last thing he'd want in Aerys' court is questions into his background), his friendship with Illyrio. No other theory explains Varys to the level of complete satisfaction that Varys being Serra's blood relative (most likely brother) does.

Hmm, I kinda like the idea that Aegon is a Blackfyre, and Varys and Illyrio are involved in a cool conspiracy of sorts....still if Aegon is an imposter, it's likely he'll be killed by Dany, due that prophecy thing she had about killing liars and all that business........don't really want to see Aegon dead......or even Varys (maybe).

The prophecy was about slaying lies. People are greatly overhyping the notion that Aegon will die. I personally would bet that he will survive the series. Especially if he marries Sansa which I think is more likely than not - from Littlefinger's perspective it seems like the obvious move. See here for a more complete reasoning. Once Rickon re-appears he will need new allies to replace the North he was probably expecting to rally under Sansa, and once news of Dany's marriage emgerges she will no longer be viewed as a potential ally. He can't rebel against the Lannisters with just the Vale and some Riverlords, it's not enough without the North. And with YG+Golden Company+Dorne+Reach friends Aegon and Littlefinger's forces will win easily. Littlefinger would eliminate most of his risk with this move.

[Kadence]

Those are good points, it would be a shock for Varys to come out as a Prince though.

Seems like Martin to have a eunuch hidden "Prince" of a sort who isn't your typical good looking youth. Would be a nice literary coup by him.

As Aegon Blackfyre, he has just as solid a claim on the throne as a Baratheon, and an even better one than a Lannister.

There is zero chance Varys could rally support for the Blackfyres. It's highly doubtful even the Golden Company would fight for them. Rhaeghar's son, especially with the Dornish ties, is easy to raise banners for. No one was more beloved than Rhaeghar - his name is extremely powerful.

Also, Varys tried to save Aerys from Tywin Lannister's host entering the city and betraying him. Why would he try to save him if he was a Blackfyre loyalist?

This was addressed by me long ago and extremely easy to explain - Varys was trying to save his own hide. It's surprising that Jon Arryn and Tywin let Varys live, and shocking that Robert let him keep his Small Council position. Varys couldn't have expected that - he probably expected to die if Tywin came into the city. Instead he was allowed to maintain his power base. Varys was plain lucky. After Tywin's men were inside the gates, the situation was outside his control.

He wanted Aerys undone but that was too soon - there was no Blackfyre heir ready - and way too violent and dangerous situation for himself personally with an army inside the city. It's no wonder he wouldn't want that because then he'd just be at their mercy. Varys was probably acting against Aerys on general hatred of Targs, and also in the hopes that some opportunity would emerge later. Rhaeghar and Lyanna and Rickard's burning caused the situation to go out of control probably long before Varys actually planned. Things seem to regularly go ahead of schedule on Varys, whether due to Rhaeghar faling for Lyanna or Littlefinger's scheming :)

It's not that I don't like the theory, it just seems like we are overcomplicating things here.

In what way? Aegon is clearly not Rhaeghar's son, that makes zero sense both in terms of the motives of Varys, Illyrio and Blackheart, and also in literary terms (we've been following Dany and Jon, not Aegon, also Dany's visions imply a fake). So if Aegon is not Rhaeghar's son - which he isn't - nothing else makes sense. Whereas this theory explains everything to absolute perfection and complete satisfaction, with as someone said in the other thread, literally no loose ends. Everything is tied up all nice and neat and logical. Very straightforward.

His birds would have known about Rossart's plans, and they would have had time enough to remove the 'dangerous fruits' from the dungeons of the Red Keep.

I suppose this is possible but honestly, I doubt Martin has given any thought to this, and whether Varys had a way to survie Aerys burning the city or not. If someone asked him in an interview he'd probably look confused and make up an answer on the spot "well maybe this or that", I'm thinking.

[CrypticWeirwood]

Whereas this theory explains everything to absolute perfection and complete satisfaction, with as someone said in the other thread, literally no loose ends. Everything is tied up all nice and neat and logical. Very straightforward.

Literal loose ends are dangling pieces of thread. Did you perchance mean figuratively?

[Kadence]

Literal loose ends are dangling pieces of thread. Did you perchance mean figuratively?

Say what? I said "literally no", as in, literally none. Not one. I think the meaning was rather obvious :)

[Lord Varys]

Nope, GRRM most likely knows exactly what was going on during the Sack of King's Landing, just as he knows what happened at Harrenhal during that tourney.

We get more and more information on the Sack of KL but as of yet Varys's whereabouts are still a complete mystery. He was not with Aerys during his last hours/minutes, so I'd guess he was either with Elia and switched the babes, or hid already down in the dungeons. He clearly evaded Lorch and Gregor and only came out of hiding after Ned and/or Robert and Jon Arryn held the city. I guess Tywin's orders where to kill everyone in the castle besides Jaime and possibly Pycelle. Varys and Pycelle are the only members of Aerys's council who survived the sack to be pardoned. Pycelle survived because he was Tywin's toady, and Varys's survived because he evaded capture. Apparently, Aerys's Master of Law, Master of Coin, and Master of Ships were not so lucky... This is no coincidence.

As to Serra, Illyrio, and Varys being Blackfyres:

I doubt that all of them are Blackfyres. This makes no sense. And I'm pretty sure that, if Serra was Maelys's niece, neither Illyrio nor Varys can be related to her. If that was the case, why on earth would Varys and Illyrio let her end up in Lysene brothel? Serra was Illyrio's true love, apparently, but he only found her in a brothel. If she was Varys's sister she would have had to of an age with Varys (as Varys himself was already a slave as a very young boy), and there would have been little chance to find her again... And Illyrio only married her after in love with her. She was his second wife. Illyrio was already a Magister of Pentos when he met her, so he was most likely already pretty fat and much older than this beautiful young woman with valyrian looks.

If Serra is Illyrio's motivation for the Aegon plot, then Serra has to be a Blackfyre desperately wanting to avenge her relatives. Serra would be some kind of dead Daenerys, Illyrio her Drogo, and Aegon their Rhaego...

But it is just as possible that Illyrio himself is the Blackfyre guy, since Varys chose him as protector and ally and no other bravo. But it is just as easily possible that Varys is the guy who hatched this whole scheme. This is actually the most likeliest scenario. He is the man in KL preparing everything for this grand scheme. Illyrio's participation could still be only him repaying the debt he owes to Varys - Varys effectively made him the man he is today.

[Dragonfish]

Literal loose ends are dangling pieces of thread. Did you perchance mean figuratively?

lit·er·al·ly

   [lit-er-uh-lee]

1. literal or strict sense:What does the word mean literally?

2. in a literal manner; word for word: to translate literally.

3. actually; without exaggeration or inaccuracy: The city was literally destroyed.

4. in effect; in substance; very nearly; virtually.

Usage note

Since the early 20th century, literally has been widely used as an intensifier meaning “in effect, virtually,” a sense that contradicts the earlier meaning “actually, without exaggeration”: The senator was literally buried alive in the Iowa primaries. The parties were literally trading horses in an effort to reach a compromise. The use is often criticized; nevertheless, it appears in all but the most carefully edited writing.

[CrypticWeirwood]

Say what? I said "literally no", as in, literally none. Not one. I think the meaning was rather obvious :)

Not to me. I don’t understand this bizarre use of literally as an intensifier. It misleads at best. It makes no sense at all. The test is to remove it and see whether the sense changes.

This is literally not the way to literally use literally.

[CrypticWeirwood]

The use is often criticized; nevertheless, it appears in all but the most carefully edited writing.

It stands out like a sore thumb. It doesn’t make any sense. The OED mentions that it is “often considered irregular in standard English since it reverses the original sense of literally (‘not figuratively or metaphorically’).”

Precisely my point. Using something to mean its own opposite is so misleading as to be wicked.

[Dragonfish]

It stands out like a sore thumb. It doesn’t make any sense.

Don't be ridiculous. You understood exactly what Kadence meant.

Not to me. I don’t understand this bizarre use of literally as an intensifier. It misleads at best. It makes no sense at all. The test is to remove it and see whether the sense changes.

If you remove it then you remove the intensification, so I think it passes the test.

This is literally not the way to literally use literally.

How dare you use the split infinitive!

Precisely my point. Using something to mean its own opposite is so misleading as to be wicked.

Then you must hate auto-antonyms like "sanction", right?

[Jem]

To wade into an argument that has nothing to do with me...

Kadence meant (and she has already clarified this) that the 'literal' was for the word "no", NOT for the phrase "loose ends" which is, of course, figurative.

[CrypticWeirwood]

If you remove it then you remove the intensification, so I think it passes the test.

Fail.

There is no possibility to modify negation that way, because it is a boolean quality; somebody was just getting all excited. If a woman has no children, you cannot make her have fewer of them by somehow “intensifying” no. See why it is senseless? Just use an exclamation point if you’re excited. Or say damn.

[Dragonfish]

Fail.

I'm not sure I understand what you mean. "Fail" is a verb, "failure" is a noun. Are you ordering me to fail?

There is no possibility to modify negation that way, because it is a boolean quality; somebody was just getting all excited. If a woman has no children, you cannot make her have fewer of them by somehow “intensifying” no. See why it is senseless? Just use an exclamation point if you’re excited. Or say damn.

Intensifiers can add emotional emphasis. When Kadence says her theory leaves "literally no loose ends", she is conveying her enthusiasm for how well the theory explains things in the books. If you leave out the intensifier, you lose some of that sense of enthusiasm.

You might claim that such a use is nonetheless stylistically ill-advised, and that the same meaning can be conveyed through other means. And that's fine, I can accept that argument. But that doesn't mean that the word can't be used that way.

[Kadence]

Hey now. I am not a she! *shakes fist in air*

Not to me. I don’t understand this bizarre use of literally as an intensifier. It misleads at best. It makes no sense at all. The test is to remove it and see whether the sense changes.

This is literally not the way to literally use literally.

Literally no is the same as not one. The usage is standard. Your nit-picking attempt has literally failed miserably, sorry :P

I doubt that all of them are Blackfyres. This makes no sense.

No one is suggesting Illyrio as a Blackfyre. Illyrio is probably just Illyrio. Varys' buddy.

If that was the case, why on earth would Varys and Illyrio let her end up in Lysene brothel? Serra was Illyrio's true love, apparently, but he only found her in a brothel.

Obviously it wasn't up to them. And Varys is probably the one who arranged the Illyrio match to free her. The fact that he married a brothel girl is probably not coincidence - he knew what she was. Not just some random whore.

If she was Varys's sister she would have had to of an age with Varys

No she doesn't. Is Dany of age with Rhaeghar?

and there would have been little chance to find her again...

If anyone could find her it would be Varys, and it probably wasn't hard to track her anyway. He probably always knew where she was he just was powerless to do anything about it until he got older.

If Serra is Illyrio's motivation for the Aegon plot, then Serra has to be a Blackfyre desperately wanting to avenge her relatives. Serra would be some kind of dead Daenerys, Illyrio her Drogo, and Aegon their Rhaego...

Serra likely died before she knew much of anything about Dany. But what the Blackfyres wanted was the throne. The Targs were just rivals in their way. To Varys they were thus tools. Killing helpless, potentially usesful children served no purpose.

But it is just as easily possible that Varys is the guy who hatched this whole scheme.

Indeed. I believe he concocted marrying Serra to Illyrio, and he suggested the baby switch. I think anything other than Varys as ultimate mastermind is pretty unlikely

[Dragonfish]

Hey now. I am not a she! *shakes fist in air*

Thank you for clearing that up. I at first thought you were a he, and was taken aback when other posters started calling you a she. I assumed they knew this for a fact, and that I had simply been mistaken. Sorry for contributing to the misconception! :)