[ADwD Spoilers] Is Varys on Team Blackfyre?

[Jem]

Sorry for calling you a "she" Kadence.

[Michael Jon Snow]

I think we can pretty much close the book on this theory, yes Varys is almost for sure in on Team Blackfyre.

Kadence,

Great summary. I think you have done a pretty good job of wrapping this all up in a neat little package.

I have said several places that I thought Varys was a Targ, as that seamed to be the best explanation for his motivations. I was lumping the Blackfyres in with the Targs thinking that after all this time, with the Targs and Blackfyres so decimated, that they would support each other. After all, Blakfyres are Targ decendents.

The two items that still bothered me were:

Why was Varys creating discord between Aryes and Rhaegar?

Why did Illyrio wait so long to "rescue" Dany and Viserys?

I excused the first as Varys attempting to create a situation where Rhaegar would be forced to depose his father and that Jamie and Selmy were biased. I thought perhaps Illyrio had bee secretly helping Dany and Vis, but didn't want to tip his hand to early, so kept his benevolence secret.

However your theory makes much more sense. All of the discourse that he was sewing between the different great houses, all of his scheming, all of his plotting with Illyrio all makes sense. And my questions have much better answers.

The discord between Rhaegar and Aerys could have lead to a huge civil war that would have undermined the Targ power base making the opportunity for a Blackfyre claimant that much easier.

And Illyrio's actions make much more sense. He didn't help Dany and Vis, because he had his own plot with YG. Dany and Vis served as cover for YG. The Westerosi small counsel was so busy watching the Targ children no one would notice a small trading barge with an odd collection of Westerosi exiles. And when the time for Aegon's big reveal, he needed to get rid of Dany. The whole marriage to Khal Drago was to get her and Vis as far from Westeros as possible. And if Vis did something to piss off the Khal and get himself killed so much the better. Dany would then be the bride of some Horselord, unable to make a claim against Aegon.

My basic assumption that Blackfyres and Targs would put aside their differences to fight a mutual enemy was flawed from the beginning.

[Kadence]

The whole marriage to Khal Drago was to get her and Vis as far from Westeros as possible. And if Vis did something to piss off the Khal and get himself killed so much the better. Dany would then be the bride of some Horselord, unable to make a claim against Aegon.

I agree with the rest of what you summarize but I disagree with this. I think they fully intended the dothraki to invade Westeros - I think that's why Varys let the assassination attempt on Dany take place, but probably warned Jorah to stop it, so that Drogo would get pissed and invade. Thus weakening Westeros greatly. And whoever won - the Iron Throne, or the dothraki - they could exploit the situation's aftermath.

[BrosBeforeSnows]

The one thing I don't understand, is if Varys and Illyrio were planning on supporting Aegon, why bother with Viserys and Dany? Perhaps just to have multiple aces, and if you're a Blackfyre I guess distant kin is better than nothing, even the blood of ancient enemies. But I don't know, something seems off here.

I think it follows the "don't put all of your eggs in one basket" line of thinking. If they had rested all their hopes on Viserys, for example, their plan would've died with him. Sure, there's probably something more to it, as you suggest, but it could be as simple as Varys & Ilyrio wanting to attach themselves to all of the deposed royals (or royal bastards) in order to better their odds of attaining power. Plus, if they were to ignore Viserys and only concentrate on Aegon, someone else would've snatched him up and used him for their own ends.

[Michael Jon Snow]

I agree with the rest of what you summarize but I disagree with this. I think they fully intended the dothraki to invade Westeros - I think that's why Varys let the assassination attempt on Dany take place, but probably warned Jorah to stop it, so that Drogo would get pissed and invade. Thus weakening Westeros greatly. And whoever won - the Iron Throne, or the dothraki - they could exploit the situation's aftermath.

You may be right. A dothraki invasion would cause tremendous chaos, and perhapse be just the opportunity they were waiting for. The risk being that Dany and Vis's claim was pretty strong. If they won, they might gain the support of the Targ loyalists, which could make things harder on YG.

I think the case could be very strong that Illyrio knew that the Khal would balk at invading, or at the very least delay a long time.

In either case, Illyrio's support of Dany put her much more at risk than some of the other choices we now know he had at his disposal. Dany was his decoy. Getting YG on the throne was his main objective.

[ChrisJM89]

You may be right. A dothraki invasion would cause tremendous chaos, and perhapse be just the opportunity they were waiting for. The risk being that Dany and Vis's claim was pretty strong. If they won, they might gain the support of the Targ loyalists, which could make things harder on YG.

I think the case could be very strong that Illyrio knew that the Khal would balk at invading, or at the very least delay a long time.

In either case, Illyrio's support of Dany put her much more at risk than some of the other choices we now know he had at his disposal. Dany was his decoy. Getting YG on the throne was his main objective.

I agree.

Now as a bonus if they can tie YG and Dany together with marriage then the Targaryen and Blackfyre lines are reunited. No more Blackfyre rebellions and theres enough "normal" blood in YG that their children wouldn't be mad as hatters.

[CrypticWeirwood]

Now as a bonus if they can tie YG and Dany together with marriage then the Targaryen and Blackfyre lines are reunited. No more Blackfyre rebellions and theres enough "normal" blood in YG that their children wouldn't be mad as hatters.

Good idea. Plus I’d way more rather see Dany with Aegon than with Jon.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

HOLY SHITBRIX. Varys is the perfumed seneschal, too.

Actually I think that refers to the ship that Tyrion was on — the one whose name translated to Stinky Steward.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I'm not sure that Aegon is Illyrio's son, but I do think the idea that Varys is a Blackfyre/Targaryen has a lot of merit would and explain a lot. This is one aspect of the series which I admit not knowing a whole lot about.

[Tiberius Claudius]

Since GRRM has stated one of his inspirations for ASOIAF is the Wars of the Roses, it does make sense for Aegon to be a Blackfyre - and for House Blackfyre to eventually rule. In the Wars of the Roses the House of Lancaster was deposed by the House of York who ruled for some time and exterminated the Lancastrian line. The House of Tudor, descended from a bastard branch of the Lancasters, eventually overthrew the House of York.

[Kadence]

You may be right. A dothraki invasion would cause tremendous chaos, and perhapse be just the opportunity they were waiting for. The risk being that Dany and Vis's claim was pretty strong. If they won, they might gain the support of the Targ loyalists, which could make things harder on YG.

They could always kill Viserys then bring in Aegon, I suppose. It might have been a "we'll deal with it when we get there" type of thing. I think most of their plans have been pretty flexible - which is good because nothing ever goes the way they plan :)

I think the case could be very strong that Illyrio knew that the Khal would balk at invading, or at the very least delay a long time.

But I think they set up the Dany assassination because of exactly this, so that he wouldn't delay. I think Littlefinger's plots made them move up the timing of their own dothraki plot.

Actually I think that refers to the ship that Tyrion was on — the one whose name translated to Stinky Steward.

I think the ship was just red herring - it got destroyed and never reached there. Yes it carried people Dany needs to be wary of but it just doesn't 'feel' like it was what was meant, I think the reveal for what this line meant will come later.

I also lean towards the perfumed seneschal being Varys. The only problem there is that she won't meet Varys for a while - but then many of Quaithe's warnings seem to take ages to become relevant anyway. Reznak is still possible as well, but I think Varys fits best. There's nobody she truly needs to be wary of more than Varys. The Meereenese aren't that important and her allies will smash them pretty soon - Varys is truly dangerous and powerful.

I'm not sure that Aegon is Illyrio's son, but I do think the idea that Varys is a Blackfyre/Targaryen has a lot of merit would and explain a lot. This is one aspect of the series which I admit not knowing a whole lot about.

The hints for Illyrio+Serra=Aegon are very strong indeed. There's a number of threads about it.

Since GRRM has stated one of his inspirations for ASOIAF is the Wars of the Roses, it does make sense for Aegon to be a Blackfyre - and for House Blackfyre to eventually rule. In the Wars of the Roses the House of Lancaster was deposed by the House of York who ruled for some time and exterminated the Lancastrian line. The House of Tudor, descended from a bastard branch of the Lancasters, eventually overthrew the House of York.

Yes Aegon is from a legititimized bastard line on the female side, just like Henry VII. Funny because Perkin Warbeck is often mentioned as an Aegon parallel even though Henry VII fits much better.

However being inspired by the War of the Roses definitely doesn't mean the correlations are one-to-one. I highly doubt Aegon will end up on the Iron Throne at the end - although I do lean towards him surviving the series. Most assume he's doomed and I don't think that's true (especially if he marries Sansa. I don't see her being widowed).

[Wellspring]

Not sure if this is the place for it, but assuming that I+S=A, how do we know that S is really dead? What if Serra lived, dyed her hair brown, and is known to us as Septa Lemore?

[BrosBeforeSnows]

It would be nice if we eventually get a Varys POV.

[Rhieth the Blue]

To be entirely honest I didn't read the whole tread above, but from what I read nobody pointed out the fact that Varys is bald and hair can be a really crucial thing if it come to possible Targaryen ( Valyrian ) descent. I neither make theories nor vouch for any of the above but I strongly believe that Varys must be "someone" not "just" Varys some random eunoch from across the sea. There is one thing I learnt in these books that everyone seeks his/her own and his/her beloveds ( see family, love etc ) good. So did the Starks, so do the Lannisters, so do the Tyrells, so do Littlefinger and Varys must have some really strong connection to the Targaryens who are exiled in Essos, and also the fact the he tried to persuade Aerys not to oped his gates to Tywin Lannister adds to it. Varys is not "just a soldier who takes his orders and carries on".

[Kadence]

I have mentioned in other threads how Egg shaving his hair is probably foreshadowing of Varys' shaved head. Varys shaving his head to hide his heritage from Aerys' court makes good sense - if it would indicate Blackfyre genes, the last thing he would want is people looking into his background.

If he's a Targ bastard he has no reason to hide this from Aerys. Shaved head to conceal origins only makes sense if he's from the Blackfyre line.

so do Littlefinger

When has Littlefinger done anything good for someone he loves? Unless you mean trying to help Ned until Ned insisted on Stannis being king, but he did betray Cat's husband in the end. And he's sort of helped Sansa and wants her but she seems more of a pawn to me than someone's whose best-interests he's out for, he was involved in framing her after all and betraying Ned caused all her suffering to begin with. But yes, Littlefinger is pretty much the only major player not motivated by family and such.

Varys seems to have a personal stake in Aegon and him being the boy's uncle or close relative makes good sense because eunuchs in both eastern and western cultures were known to have agendas to advance their brothers and nephews, since they couldn't have children of their own.

[hesitantreader]

An interesting theory, but I still think Aegon being a Targ is the simplest and most likely outcome. Martin has been setting this up for a very long time.

First the secrecy around his corpse; wrapping it up and destroying the head implies something was being hidden.

Second Tywin never was going to let anyone question Gregor. When we finally did get a confession from Gregor, it was more of a boast in battle to try and get an edge on his attacker then a true confession. My guess is that Gregor knew he had the wrong child and took it to the grave.

And the final knock on this is the group that surrounds Aegon. Though we don't know all of their identities yet they seem to be important. Particularly Jon Connington who would be very unlikely to support anyone but Rhaegar's child.

[Dragonfish]

An interesting theory, but I still think Aegon being a Targ is the simplest and most likely outcome. Martin has been setting this up for a very long time.

Yes, he has, and he's also implied with the "slayer of lies" prophecy that Aegon is fake, IMO.

First the secrecy around his corpse; wrapping it up and destroying the head implies something was being hidden.

Second Tywin never was going to let anyone question Gregor. When we finally did get a confession from Gregor, it was more of a boast in battle to try and get an edge on his attacker then a true confession. My guess is that Gregor knew he had the wrong child and took it to the grave.

How would Gregor have even known how to identify the child? This seems like a really big stretch.

And the final knock on this is the group that surrounds Aegon. Though we don't know all of their identities yet they seem to be important. Particularly Jon Connington who would be very unlikely to support anyone but Rhaegar's child.

The simple answer is that none of these people know he's a fake.

[hesitantreader]

How would Gregor have even known how to identify the child? This seems like a really big stretch.

The Targ bloodline seems to be pretty distinctive with the purple/black eyes and the silver hair. I am pretty sure that Gregor would know who he killed.

[1234567]

In support of Varys being a Blackfyre, he only tells Tyrion the story of how he was cut in connection to Stannis and the use of magic and R'hllor. I doubt it's a story he has told many people. What is interesting is that Mel has a fixation on King's Blood and the power associated with burning those who have it.

Now going back to what Varys tells Tyrion, he says that as his parts were burning he could hear a voice from the fire and this seems connected to a Preist of R'hllor and Myr and all. Further evidence that he is a Blackfyre descendant because his blood was useful in spells?

Also whoever called Lemore as Serra, I think that is a better explanation than Ashara.

[Dragonfish]

The Targ bloodline seems to be pretty distinctive with the purple/black eyes and the silver hair. I am pretty sure that Gregor would know who he killed.

The child who was killed had fair hair, and had to be ripped from Elia's breast. That would have been enough to make Gregor think the child was real.