[ADwD Spoilers] Is Varys on Team Blackfyre?

[1234567]

The child who was killed had fair hair, and had to be ripped from Elia's breast. That would have been enough to make Gregor think the child was real.

Also Gregor wasn't what you'd call a deep thinker.

[voodooqueen126]

Good idea. Plus I’d way more rather see Dany with Aegon than with Jon.

The only thing I like about Daenerys and Jon together is that it puts the Starks back in power. Where as Aegon/Daenerys have no reason to love the Stars or treat them well.

It's not realistic IMHO that Daenerys will go "my father was nuts, my brother was a rapist, I shall restore the Tullys and Starks because that's the right thing to do"

[king lare]

With a character like Varys you never know. However, I would like to think that he is working for justice in his own way.

[Kadence]

In support of Varys being a Blackfyre, he only tells Tyrion the story of how he was cut in connection to Stannis and the use of magic and R'hllor. I doubt it's a story he has told many people. What is interesting is that Mel has a fixation on King's Blood and the power associated with burning those who have it.

Now going back to what Varys tells Tyrion, he says that as his parts were burning he could hear a voice from the fire and this seems connected to a Preist of R'hllor and Myr and all. Further evidence that he is a Blackfyre descendant because his blood was useful in spells?

Yes, and it's odd because I think I was the first person to suggest the possible King's Blood ties with Varys' balls, yet I consider a bit of a pseudo-crackpottish notion :) Others seem to like it better than I actually do, including Ran. I think it's also possible it was a random blood sacrifice and the mage didn't know of Varys' background. But the mage knowing of Varys' background does fit as well.

Also whoever called Lemore as Serra, I think that is a better explanation than Ashara.

She isn't Serra. Lemore's hair would have to be dyed as it is dark not silvery, nor would Illyrio agree to be separted from his wife that he was crazy for. And his story about his dead wife was clearly sincere. We can very safely say that Serra is dead.

Also Gregor wasn't what you'd call a deep thinker.

A Targ haired child ripped from Elia's breast - you could be a wise sage and not doubt the child was real. Neither Gregor nor anyone else would have suspected a switch. And it's almost certain IMO that there wasn't one. Rhaeghar's first son is probably quite dead. Aegon being the Blackfyre heir and the child of Illyrio and Serra fits everything too well, and the motives and actions of Varys, Illyrio and Blackheart make no sense at all if Aegon is Rhaeghar's son.

If Aegon is Rhaegahr's son then Martin screwed up the behaviors of Varys, Illyrio and Blackheart big time.

With a character like Varys you never know. However, I would like to think that he is working for justice in his own way.

If he was looking for justice for the realm he wouldn't have killed Kevan, he'd have killed Cersei. He's not out for justice - unless it's justice for his dispossessed family.

[Rhieth the Blue]

In my oppinion it fits for LF that he does anything for himself or those he loves, but the only person he loved-loves is Cat. And what he did about Ned was something againts the man who had the woman he loves, so it's plainly for himself.

As for Varys hiding his true identity from the Targaryens, well I think as he got to court he might have seen that the benefits of revealing his descent are little compared to the possible dangers.

If he is some lost Blackfyre I don't see why would he help the Targaryens in Essos. However if that help is more about setting the Targaryens againts each other and then coming out with a Blackfyre heir can be a possibility too, I don't think it is likely. If he is a Blackfyre I think he must be the last, supporting those who are closest to him in blood, the Targaryens - since as a eunoch that's the wisest thing he can do.

I think we all can agree that one thing is perfectly clear about him. He is the blood of Old Valyria, on way or the other.

Edited for spelling.

[iNinja]

The baby Aegon definitely had a Targaryen look. In the house of the Undying, Dany sees a tall Targaryen looking man with silver hair and indigo eyes and she knows it is a grown-up baby Aegon. Dany had seen baby Aegon when he was born so she must have known his true features for her to make that assumption.

[Silverin]

In my oppinion it fits for LF that he does anything for himself or those he loves, but the only person he loved-loves is Cat. And what he did about Ned was something againts the man who had the woman he loves, so it's plainly for himself.

As for Varys hiding his true identity from the Targaryens, well I think as he got to court he might have seen that the benefits of revealing his descent are little compared to the possible dangers.

If he is some lost Blackfyre I don't see why would he help the Targaryens in Essos. However if that help is more about setting the Targaryens againts each other and then coming out with a Blackfyre heir can be a possibility too, I don't think it is likely. If he is a Blackfyre I think he must be the last, supporting those who are closest to him in blood, the Targaryens - since as a eunoch that's the wisest thing he can do.

I think we all can agree that one thing is perfectly clear about him. He is the blood of Old Valyria, on way or the other.

I don't think he as a Blackfyre wants to support theTargs.

He was the one who said to Aerys that Rhaegar is conspiring against him, he is the one that said to him he should open the gates to Tywin. Which means he had his role in the fall of the Targaryen house .

Beside the Blackfyres are a legitimized targ bastard line, but they fought against the Targs, and were denied the Throne just like the Baratheons overthrow the Targs.

And does anyone know, but I thought the Blackfyre's were living in exile because the Targs, just like dany is living in exile because of Robert. And by te way the Baratheons have Targ blood in them as well so....

I think it is more likely that Aegon is a Blackfyre and Varys wants a Balckfyre on the Throne (since it seems like he did help the fail of the Targ house).

[Ser Zartan]

I think he's probably a Blackfyre too. The prominence given to the Blackfyres in the Dunk & Egg stories seems to indicate that they'll crop up again in the main novels (like Bloodraven) and the Varys/Aegon plot seems the most likely way.

I also think Varys' support for Dany and the Dothraki invasion was because he saw them as a useful destabilising force that would weaken the Lannisters/Baratheons' grip on the Iron Throne without realistically being able to conquer Westeros (don't have the books to hand but I recall a chapter in AGoT where Ser Jorah spoke to Dany about the Dothraki invading Westeros and he seemed sceptical of their ability to fight armoured knights or take castles). But then Dany hatched the dragons and changed the game.

[hotweaselsoup]

Yes, and it's odd because I think I was the first person to suggest the possible King's Blood ties with Varys' balls, yet I consider a bit of a pseudo-crackpottish notion Others seem to like it better than I actually do, including Ran. I think it's also possible it was a random blood sacrifice and the mage didn't know of Varys' background. But the mage knowing of Varys' background does fit as well.

I'm wondering if the sorcerer who cut Varys was none other than Aerion Brightflame? Yes, I know he supposedly died years earlier from drinking wildfire*, but…what if he didn't? In The Hedge Knight, Egg speaks of his brother's cruelty. He tells Dunk that Aerion would

creep into Egg's chamber at night, place a knife between his legs, and threaten to castrate him.

Could this be a foreshadowing of what would eventually happen to Varys? And could it be that Varys knew that it was Aerion who cut him, and ever since has had at the center of his being a deep and abiding hatred for all things Targaryen? Could everything that Varys has engineered thus far be less about placing a Blackfyre on the Iron Throne, and more about the utter destruction of House Targaryen? Does Varys have a checklist of names that he whispers at night? Aerys, Rhaegar, Rhaenys, Aegon, Viserys….Danaerys? Beware the perfumed seneschal indeed :devil:

If Varys was so intent on helping Viserys and Danaerys, then why did he watch from afar as they scuttled from city to city, two beggared and desperate children at the mercy of cutthroats and thieves? Did it perhaps give him pleasure to watch them suffer? Was he the cat, toying with these two little mice?

Oh and by the way: who else was cut when he was a boy, by a scion of a great House? Littlefinger, of course. Perhaps our Lord Baelish also has a nightly prayer, but his list consists of Starks.

At the end of the day, it seems very GRRM that the whole great mishmosh of plots and conspiracies and rebellions and wars could all stem from the simplest of things: a child who was wronged - hurt, betrayed, cast out, damaged - and who now seeks retribution.

*perhaps he learned enough of the dark arts to extend his life unnaturally, a la Bloodraven or Melisandre or the Undying? Perhaps Mr. Brightflame managed to turn himself into some sort of demon, and he's crouched in a fiery pit somewhere, hooked into the R'hllor net - a weird Bloodraven mirror? Didn't GRRM write somewhere that a good villain was hard to find, and that he hated to kill them off? Aerion was truly an excellent villain - beautiful, psychopathic, insane; what a waste to have him die offstage, through the stupidity of drinking wildfire.

[Rhieth the Blue]

he is the one that said to him he should open the gates to Tywin.

Wasn't is Pycelle? I read somewhere that Jamie said some thing like "that Varys actually spoke againts letting Tywin inside the city, and the one time Aerys should have listened to him" ( I know neither the exact quote nor the book/page it was mentioned maybe, somewhere at the end of Feast )

With Jon Connington involved ( who was one of the closest friends of Rhaegar ) I don't think Aegon is a Blackfyre.

[Kadence]

Yes Varys advised against opening the gates, likely to save his own skin because that would be a very dangerous spot for him. He seemed anti-Aerys but he probably did not want war so quickly - Rhaeghar and Lyanna and Aerys burning Rickard made things move out of Varys' control, much like with Littlefinger.

The baby Aegon definitely had a Targaryen look. In the house of the Undying, Dany sees a tall Targaryen looking man with silver hair and indigo eyes and she knows it is a grown-up baby Aegon. Dany had seen baby Aegon when he was born so she must have known his true features for her to make that assumption.

I believe you are talking about the vision with Rhaeghar.

Aerion was truly an excellent villain - beautiful, psychopathic, insane; what a waste to have him die offstage, through the stupidity of drinking wildfire.

Because it is an entertaining and satisfying death for a villain that needed to die, so that Egg could inherit.

I have seen speculation that the sorcerer who chopped off his balls was Marwyn and that seems quite possible.

With Jon Connington involved ( who was one of the closest friends of Rhaegar ) I don't think Aegon is a Blackfyre.

Connington would have absolutely no way of knowing if the child was Rhaeghar's. Any child with Targ features and a comparable age would fool him.

[oba]

Wasn't is Pycelle? I read somewhere that Jamie said some thing like "that Varys actually spoke againts letting Tywin inside the city, and the one time Aerys should have listened to him" ( I know neither the exact quote nor the book/page it was mentioned maybe, somewhere at the end of Feast )

With Jon Connington involved ( who was one of the closest friends of Rhaegar ) I don't think Aegon is a Blackfyre.

Pycelle admits it to Tyrion in Book 2.

Pycelle's breathing was rapid and shallow. "All I did, I did for House Lannister." A sheen of sweat covered the broad dome of the old man's brow, and wisps of white hair clung to his wrinkled skin. "Always . . . for years . . . your lord father, ask him, I was ever his true servant . . . 'twas I who bid Aerys open his gates . . ."

That took Tyrion by surprise. He had been no more than an ugly boy at Casterly Rock when the city fell. "So the Sack of King's Landing was your work as well?"

"For the realm! Once Rhaegar died, the war was done. Aerys was mad, Viserys too young, Prince Aegon a babe at the breast, but the realm needed a king . . . I prayed it should be your good father, but Robert was too strong, and Lord Stark moved too swiftly . . ."

And Jaime confirms it when he's talking to Brienne in Book 3.

"Ned Stark was racing south with Robert's van, but my father's forces reached the city first. Pycelle convinced the king that his Warden of the West had come to defend him, so he opened the gates. The one time he should have heeded Varys, and he ignored him. My father had held back from the war, brooding on all the wrongs Aerys had done him and determined that House Lannister should be on the winning side. The Trident decided him."

[Silverin]

Wasn't is Pycelle? I read somewhere that Jamie said some thing like "that Varys actually spoke againts letting Tywin inside the city, and the one time Aerys should have listened to him" ( I know neither the exact quote nor the book/page it was mentioned maybe, somewhere at the end of Feast )

With Jon Connington involved ( who was one of the closest friends of Rhaegar ) I don't think Aegon is a Blackfyre.

Your right sorry.

[Capon Breath]

Va as in Valar Morghulis, likely means "Man"... So Varys is a man of Fire. Which, despite not having all his bits, giggle, sounds about right to me...

If he and Illyrio arent supporting Targs, why go to all the trouble with Drogo and the Dothraki? Just a backup plan B for Flaegon (YG)? In case the GC flail?

I think there is a lot the theory of uniting Targs and Blackfyres on the Iron Throne...

If Etimology can make Varys "Man of Fire" - can Etimology link Littlfinger or Petyr Baelish to "Ice" ?

[iNinja]

Varys will ride a dragon because he is unburnt.

[king lare]

>>>>If he was looking for justice for the realm he wouldn't have killed Kevan, he'd have killed Cersei. He's not out for justice - unless it's justice for his dispossessed family.

No, I don't think so. . .I believe Varys goal is bring the Lannisters down so that the Targs return to power. In Kevan's competent hands, that wouldn't be so easy to arrange. . .however, we must also remember that this is part of GRRM's carefully constructed plot, so there are reasons which will only become evident later.

[Lord Martin]

If Etimology can make Varys "Man of Fire" - can Etimology link Littlfinger or Petyr Baelish to "Ice" ?

Didn't LF's family fight on the Targaryen side in the War of the Ninepenny Kings? Thats how they came over from Bravos right? Met the Corbrays, Hoster Tully and Jon Arryn. LF's father or grandfather took the Titan of Braavos as his sigil (which makes the Sansa/Winterfell Giant's head on a pike scene all the better).

While thats not an "ice" connection, its another anti-Varys/anti-Blackfrye piece.

[Lord Commander Jaimie]

I really like the Varys is a Blackfyre theory and think it will come to play, however, I don't think it guarantees Aegon sits the throne. I think there are still too many variables.

Stannis for one, I think him being connected to the Iron Bank is going to be incredibly significant. GRRM makes a point early on that men follow Gold, more so then they follow loyalty to god/country/government.

You also have Jon, The Wall and the others, Bran and Bloodraven and Rickon, which are a counter balance to Varys, Aegon and Danny. I think Bloodraven is a more competent version of Varys, and Jon more capable then Dany (assuming he is alive).

Then again, it's the Song of Ice and Fire, so some type of joining between these factions makes sense. I think ultimately Little Finger will be the one who fails. Unless it turns out he is in cohoots with Varys, I think the Harrenhal curse will bite him in some way.

Aside from these things you also have the Greyjoys, Darkstar as possibly being significant (I know this is a stretch but I think there is more to him then we know), whatever is going on with Loras, and Tyrion's story as well, and the Faith being rearmed. You also have Robert's bastards, Ser Robert Strong, and the BWB...

Still too much to know who will win in the end and plenty of possible twists from GRRM.

[Bluefyre]

LCJ,

That is a nice synopsis and set of predictions you put together there.

Team Dany is also going to include air force and cavalry, but that aside you summed up the balancing major factions quite nicely. Tyrion will play team Dany, I would reckon. Probably as her co-pilot on one of the 2 smaller dragons.

No mention of the Boltons and Freys, which I do agree will be almost completely done for after TWOW. The BWB with unCat, Jaime and Brienne will take care of them in the riverlands, and Stannis, the Umbers, Manderly and the other Northlings in the North. Those northern factions will probably unite and rise when Davos returns with Rickon and some Skagos magic.

And I'm also a believer in the 'V+I support Aegon Blackfyre' theory. That just explains so well V+I actions toward Viserys and Dany, and to me it still seems much more probable that Aegon is a Blackfyre than a real Targ that was saved after a really difficult to set up baby-swap. Aegon's fake in my mind anyway. Small part of me keeps in mind that he (and perhaps also Illyrio/Varis) might be a descendant of Aerion Brightflame. Anyway, GRRM hasn't put that amount of emphasis on the Blackfyres and the events around that time in his Dunk and Egg novellas for nothing; and voila, the Blackfyre era, including Bloodraven, pops up in ADWD.

The Ironborn will mainly provide Dany's navy/marines but will be wiped out soon because numberwise they're not enough of a significant force. However Euron's role may extend his brothers' (who are both doomed as well), but not for very long...

Dorne's role is still somewhat obscure to me. In another thread it has been argued rather convincingly that their main focus might be on the Free Cities and not so much on Westeros. Not sure what they hope to gain though, except for some vague anti-Valyrian/anti-Targ sentiment. I'm also not convinced that will be their only thing, seeing as how the sand snakes are put into position in key places in Westeros.

And then there's some nice cage-fights coming up: Balon Swann vs Darkstar, Robert Strong vs. is former brother (both emerging from the dead), Vic against Euron?

Some important story arcs you did not mention include Sansa/Littlefinger/Vale. At some point Sansa will reverse revenge her father (and mother, and brother) on LF.

I'm wondering who Arya is going to kill; I do think that eventually she won't act against her own kin, except maybe for Sansa.

The Tyrells, including Loras, stand a considerable chance of losing all, since the Tarly's and/or Hightowers may soon switch over to either Aegon (or Dany if she manages to find Westeros within the next book).

Only Lannister surviving probably is Tyrion. I hope also Jaime, but I'm not too sure about that one. And there's a reasonable chance Jamie will be yet another Targ unveiled.

Jon obviously is not dead (enough) not to reappear. He probably is R+L's son and therefore TPTWP, which will become clear when Howland Reed pops up. Maybe his arc will then be connected to that of Bran's and Reeds kids - and Bloodraven's?

I'm curious about the exact role of the Citadel and Marwyn in the next books, have no prediction that's based on more or less solid clues for this arc...

[The Blood Eyed Crow]

Bluefyre, why do you believe Jaime will likely be revealed as a Targ? He was the offspring of two Lannisters more or less. While it is possible the Mad King took liberties with Joanna, I just can't see that coupling happening. Maybe I've missed something.

I'd never before thought of Varys/Blackfyre connections before this addition to the forums, but definitely see it now as the Illyrio/Varys interests in the Targaryens never made any sense to me before. I knew that GRRM giving us the story of Varys' mutilation as a child and the blood magic and the voices that were heard would need to be tied up somehow and GRRM has certainly nailed it in our heads that the blood of kings no matter how bastardized or far removed is a valuable thing. If the manhood of every street kid was valuable for blood magic I think it would be a lot more popular amongst the mages and priests and priestesses of the books.

I believe it's quite possible that Marwyn the Mage who has been trying to communicate with Dany through the dragon glass candle and has travelled the world studying magic is the one who used Varys' "manhood" for a blood ritual. It would tie King's Landing to the Citadel. Is it possible that Varys lied about his childhood and he wasn't raised on the streets, but instead under the guidance of Marwyn? Is it possible that Dany was given the dragon eggs by Illyrio because she was foreseen to hatch them? I'm probably in crackpot territory, but who knows. :dunno:

I also wonder if the perfumed seneschal isn't Littlefinger with his mint. There's always been two perfumed seneschal's in King's Landing: Varys and Littlefinger and they're the ones playing the game. I've also wondered if Littlefinger knows more about Varys than he realizes or we as readers do. It is always difficult to tell who has a step ahead of the other. In AFFC he tells Sansa about an upcoming conflict between the three queens of Westeros but won't provide further details, which makes me feel that he has always known about Dany and maybe even prepared the way for her by helping create the war of five kings through manipulating the death of Jon Arryn and pitting the Lannisters against the Starks.