[ADWD SPOILERS] Baby-Switching And Dany

[Selmy]

You forgot the ability to withstand fire. Lots of Targaryens experimented with burning themselves, some with spectacular yet fatal results. This proves she's not a Targaryen.

It is written

Now ;)

Dany is not immune to fire. GRRM has said that her surviving the pyre when her dragons were born was a one time thing and that she is not immume to fire otherwise.

[estrellas]

This is an interesting, albeit crackpot, theory...it dovetails with Jon Snow's possible (very likely) heritage. Jon is (very likely) a Stark and a Targaryen...Dany could very well be descended from ice and fire as well. IF, and that's a big IF, both of those theories are true, I think the third head of the dragon would also be descended from both ice and fire. But I'm drawing a blank as to who it could be.

[The BlackWolf]

If there were another baby switch this would be by far my favourite one, but surely GRRM couldn't pull it off again. For me, far more likely is an illegitimate birth (i.e. Aerys not the father) but as to who the father is, I'm done caring. It's been thought about and debated for so long now, this is another new avenue that COULD be right, but what are the chances? As slim as any other. For me, I think I'm happy to wait and see what develops in TWoW. Shouldn't be too long, right?

Oh, who am I kidding, we need more crackpot theories like these! It's what makes the whole wait so much fun! Damn you GRRM and your ability to have about 20 different theories, all of them plausible!?!

[Selmy]

This is an interesting, albeit crackpot, theory...it dovetails with Jon Snow's possible (very likely) heritage. Jon is (very likely) a Stark and a Targaryen...Dany could very well be descended from ice and fire as well. IF, and that's a big IF, both of those theories are true, I think the third head of the dragon would also be descended from both ice and fire. But I'm drawing a blank as to who it could be.

Dany obviously is one of the riders.

Bran is going to be another of the riders. We know he's going to fly, and when GRRM was asked if a skinchanger could jump into a dragon, he was all coy.

Third rider is anyone's guess. Tyrion, Aegon, Jon, someone we've never heard of...

I also don't think Jon is meant to be ice and fire. I think he's the ice and Dany is the fire.

[Wildmage]

Dany is a Targaryen, fully, i'm 100% sure of it. Her parents are who we were told they are and there is no conspiracy here.

Ah, but if Rhaegar was her father instead of Aerys, she'd still be 100%, to the bone hardcore Targ, and I find this alternative juicer and more twisted.

Anyways, most mental illnesses are carried on the X chromosome, that's why men are so much more prone to them. We know that Aery's X is bad, and Rhaella has one bad X because of Viserys (though we know next to nothing about her personality but form what we do know she probably doesn't have the madness, meaning her other X is good). If Aery's was Dany's father she for sure has one bad X, and a 50% chance of getting Rhaella's bad X and hence the madness. However, since Rhaegar is sane he got Rhaella's good X, meaning that if he were Dany's father she has a 0% chance of madness. Think about it from Rhaella's perspective. Her husband is mad, her second son is mad, she knows that the PwwP is from her + Aery's line, but does she want to risk her third child being insane (of course they don't understand genetics, but Aerys having bad blood is obvious), and get near to her cruel husband again? Rhaegar is a much better prospect. Perhaps R+L=J *and* he is Dany's father because he didn't want to put all his sperm in one basket and Rhaella also isn't putting all her eggs in one basket.

[Miriamele]

I think GRRM wants us to speculate a lot. So many little things are planted here.

We are told Dany looks as if she was Ashara's daughter.

We have Septa Lemore with unknown eye-colour.

Young Griff with blue hair to hide his supposedly silver-gold hair and make his eyes look blue.

Wylla Manderley with blond eyebrows and hair dyed green. (suspicious)

Dany mentions that Daario, whose hair is dyed blue, has blue eyes so dark that they look almost purple.

What is red herring here and what means something?

I like the idea that Dany was switched but she must have Targ blood to see the visions and control the dragons. So maybe the Ashara comment is only there to show that her child could look like a Targ and maybe YG is her son. Although unless she had him by Rhaegar or raped by Aerys, why would she pretend to die and raise her child somewhere else?

[Ice Turtle]

Right idea, wrong Targ.

For Dany to have been switched at birth Ashara would have had to conceive when Ned visited Starfall, then faked her death and travelled to Dragonstone (and didn't Stannis have a fleet surrounding DS until the storm on the night of Dany's birth?)

As Ashara was supposedly dishonoured at Harrenhal she would have been pregnant at the same time as Elia. So when Elia delivered a stillborn girl they could have secretly swapped it for Ashara's purple-eyed bastard boy. Thus the whole 'was Aegon killed' question totally irrelevent as he was never a Targ in the first place.

(Bear in mind this was a theory I developed backwards - first assuming there was a baby swap, then constructing a time-line matrix with all the potential pregnancies, Elia and Ashara seemed the closest match for a swap. Then I realised I liked this as an actual serious theory, and we know so little it is hard to disprove from the text.)

I really like this theory, whether Aegon was switched again or not. If he was, there is another Stark bastard if no, when Lannisters put a dead Targ children in front of Roberd, Ned was looking on his own kin murdered not even knowing it.

If it is true I think not even Rhaegar knew about this, it would fit perfectly for Elia to do something like this when she was unable to produce living son and Rhaegar was obsessed with PtwP. Maybe she seen it as the only way to saw her marriage.

[Hedge Knight]

I love the theory annd the creativity. We know that almost anything is possible from GRRM. Baby switching/identity theft is one of the many themes he continues through the books. I think there may be another one or two that we still haven't talked about.

He does throw out an incredible clue. Whether a red herring or a Truth, well....I don't know, but it sure is fun to keep lively in my awareness and see how it might unfold. Full quote from ADWD

He had only to close his eyes to see her (Ashara), with her long dark hair tumbling about her shoulders and those haunting purple eyes. Daenerys has the same eyes. Sometimes when the queen looked at him, he felt as if he were looking at Ashara's daughter …

[MyDogIsNamedDanerys]

Ah, but if Rhaegar was her father instead of Aerys, she'd still be 100%, to the bone hardcore Targ, and I find this alternative juicer and more twisted.

Anyways, most mental illnesses are carried on the X chromosome, that's why men are so much more prone to them.

lolwhut? This is definitely not true.

[So1ar]

so how does dany survive the fire if she is not a targ?

[Selmy]

so how does dany survive the fire if she is not a targ?

GRRM has said that Dany surviving Drogo's pyre when the dragons were born was a one time magical event and that she is not immune to fire in general.

[Hedge Knight]

GRRM has said that Dany surviving Drogo's pyre when the dragons were born was a one time magical event and that she is not immune to fire in general.

She also survives Drogon's dragon breath in the fighting pits which burns everyone else to a crisp. Dany's hair catches fire but she is unharmed, just like in Drogo's funeral pyre.

[Wildmage]

lolwhut? This is definitely not true.

Have you been hiding under a rock to the last few decades of scientific research?

A woman need both of her X-chromosomes in order to have an X-linked recessive disorder (and most of them are recessive), while a man only needs one X-chromosome with the disorder because the X and the Y don't communicate so much. (That's also why it's a Y, data has been knocked off of it for the past millenniums because two Y's never meet and get a chance to repair).

Looking at Rhaella's sons, it is clear that she is a carrier of the Targ madness. Rhaegar is sane, getting her good X; Viserys is insane, getting her bad X. Both have Aery's Y, which is irrelevant. And Aerys clearly has a bad X from his mother.

So if Dany is the daughter of Rhaella and Aerys, she is 100% sure to get his bad X. So she has a 50% chance of being a carrier and a 50% chance of being mad, depending of what she gets from Rhaella.

If Dany is Rhaegar and Rhaella's daughter, she has a 50% chance of being clean, and a 50% chance of being a carrier. Either way, if R^2=D, then she has a 0% chance of being Targ mad.

[Selmy]

She also survives Drogon's dragon breath in the fighting pits which burns everyone else to a crisp. Dany's hair catches fire but she is unharmed, just like in Drogo's funeral pyre.

Yeah it's not clear how much Dany is burned here. She seems to get a bit singed, but it also doesn't seem like she was hit by a direct blast.

I don't really know what to say. I'm not trying to argue. GRRM said she's not immune to fire.

[Selmy]

Have you been hiding under a rock to the last few decades of scientific research?

A woman need both of her X-chromosomes in order to have an X-linked recessive disorder (and most of them are recessive), while a man only needs one X-chromosome with the disorder because the X and the Y don't communicate so much. (That's also why it's a Y, data has been knocked off of it for the past millenniums because two Y's never meet and get a chance to repair).

Looking at Rhaella's sons, it is clear that she is a carrier of the Targ madness. Rhaegar is sane, getting her good X; Viserys is insane, getting her bad X. Both have Aery's Y, which is irrelevant. And Aerys clearly has a bad X from his mother.

So if Dany is the daughter of Rhaella and Aerys, she is 100% sure to get his bad X. So she has a 50% chance of being a carrier and a 50% chance of being mad, depending of what she gets from Rhaella.

If Dany is Rhaegar and Rhaella's daughter, she has a 50% chance of being clean, and a 50% chance of being a carrier. Either way, if R^2=D, then she has a 0% chance of being Targ mad.

No offense, but while I consider GRRM to be pretty smart and obviously a talented storyteller, I doubt he was considering the percentages of recessive genetic traits and mental disorders.

[Wildmage]

No offense, but while I consider GRRM to be pretty smart and obviously a talented storyteller, I doubt he was considering the percentages of recessive genetic traits and mental disorders.

Since a portion of the plot involves dynasties, and multi-generations, inheritance, and genetics, I beg to differ. If he hasn't done his homework, he should have. It's not like what I posted here isn't common knowledge.

[Dragonfish]

Since a portion of the plot involves dynasties, and multi-generations, inheritance, and genetics, I beg to differ. If he hasn't done his homework, he should have. It's not like what I posted here isn't common knowledge.

I really don't think that the link between X chromosomes and madness is common knowledge.

Besides, genetics in Martin's world can work however he wants it to work.

If R^2=D, then she has a 0% chance of being Targ mad.

I must protest this continued use of the "R^2=D" notation. R+R does not equal R^2, it equals 2R. Come on, people, remember your algebra!

[tze]

I like the idea that Dany was switched but she must have Targ blood to see the visions and control the dragons.

She does? Cause it seems to me that House Stark has produced people with precognitive capabilities (Bran, for example, and possibly Rickon as well). House Reed has produced Jojen, so seeing the future is by no means proof someone is a Targ. Not to mention, who in House Stark has shown the ability to control wild animals? An entire generation, that's who. We've seen no evidence that anyone of Valyrian descent was able to control dragons without magic horns, which Dany (sort of) did. So rather than say riding a dragon with nothing but a whip and her wits is proof she's a Targ, isn't it possible it's proof that she's NOT, since she's showing an ability that no Targ (as far as we know) has had, but which many Starks have (i.e., controlling a wild animal without a magical tool)?

so how does dany survive the fire if she is not a targ?

Who in House Targaryen has been fireproof? GRRM gives us a long laundry list of Targs who thought they were immune to fire, yet when they walked into fire/drank wildfire/etc., they died. Which of Dany's ancestors was fireproof? None. We know that many of them liked heat, but so do the Dornishmen, as Areo Hotah constantly reminds us. And where does House Dayne originate from?

Now, if Dany shows evidence of being completely batshit crazy and presumes to have magic powers that she does not in fact possess, that I think is evidence that she's a Targ. House Targaryen seems heavy on lunatics and light on actual sorcerers---the only one I can think of is Bloodraven, whose powers definitely did not come from his Targaryen half. The only ability they've consistently shown is precognitive dreams, which as I state above, isn't exactly unique in Westeros.

But if you're looking for a family which has definitely produced more than its share of sorcerers, House Stark is your guy. Half a dozen wargs and at least one greenseer in one generation alone. I don't think it's a coincidence that the tombs of ancient Stark kings are guarded by stone direwolves, nor that some unexplained "wolf blood" runs in the family. The current members of the House are hanging with giants, faceless assassins, and the Children of the Forest, fighting ice zombies, being tutored by a century-and-a-half-year-old sorcerer who lives in a tree, and running in the minds of direwolves at night. Dany would fit right in.

Dany riding Drogon seems more in line with the beginning of a First Men-style warging ability than her ancestors' magic horn-based dragontaming (since clearly, she has no horn). Her political acumen is extremely Stark-like (great in a pitched battle, terrible in back room dealing). Ashara Dayne, who was close to the royal family, supposedly had a baby daughter with a Stark, possibly Brandon, and here we have Dany, whose features can be said to be of House Dayne, and who has a thing for assholish men. If a switch did take place, nobody would have questioned it, because Ser Willam would have been in on it, Viserys was an idiot who probably knew nothing about baby girls and what a baby of a certain age looks like, and nobody else was with them; when Ser Willam died, his secret would have died with him---he didn't even have the time to tell Viserys about the Dorne marriage, remember. Viserys was too old to be switched, and Ser Willam would have been an idiot if he kept the last two Targs together, knowing that Robert Baratheon would need them dead for his own throne to be secure. And who's to say Ashara really committed suicide? The body was probably disfigured by the fall, and there's no evidence Ned ever even saw it. We only have Ashara's family's word that she died, and House Dayne was strongly pro-Targaryen, so they would doubtless lie if Ashara had really gone to join the Queen on Dragonstone with her baby girl. GRRM keeps inserting baby-switching into the narrative, quite possibly to foreshadow the reveal that one of our characters isn't who we think they are. He's all but shouted that Jon's parentage isn't what people assume, but everyone takes Dany's identity for granted, and I don't think we should.

[Hector18]

It would be awesome if Dany is Lyanna and Rhaegar's daughter, Jon is the son of Ashara Dayne and Brandon/Eddard Stark and YG is the son of Aerys II

[L'Sana]

Anyways, most mental illnesses are carried on the X chromosome, that's why men are so much more prone to them. We know that Aery's X is bad, and Rhaella has one bad X because of Viserys (though we know next to nothing about her personality but form what we do know she probably doesn't have the madness, meaning her other X is good). If Aery's was Dany's father she for sure has one bad X, and a 50% chance of getting Rhaella's bad X and hence the madness. However, since Rhaegar is sane he got Rhaella's good X, meaning that if he were Dany's father she has a 0% chance of madness. Think about it from Rhaella's perspective. Her husband is mad, her second son is mad, she knows that the PwwP is from her + Aery's line, but does she want to risk her third child being insane (of course they don't understand genetics, but Aerys having bad blood is obvious), and get near to her cruel husband again? Rhaegar is a much better prospect. Perhaps R+L=J *and* he is Dany's father because he didn't want to put all his sperm in one basket and Rhaella also isn't putting all her eggs in one basket.

I think you're over-thinking this.

First of all, we know that Westeros genetics doesn't work like real-world genetics. See the whole "Baratheon hair color"/"The seed is strong" discussion. Westeros genetics works however Marting needs them to work for his story.

Second, even assuming that Martin knows all about sex-linked recessive traits, I can guarantee you that Rhaella didn't. There is no evidence that anyone in Westeros has a clue about genetics beyond noticing that kids often look like their parents. Your theory requires not only for Martin to make this part of his world, but for Rhaella to be able to go through this same thought-process. Otherwise, it is equally probable that, yes, Dany had 50% chance of ending up nuts, but she got lucky.