[ADWD SPOILERS] Baby-Switching And Dany

[VHBravo]

Let me say this, even if this is not a fulfilling theory, if you had written the book and given it this twist, I would have been satisfied.

The only thing about it is that I feel like GRRM is planning the ULTIMATE plot twist, something where you could reread all 7 books and say to yourself, "Man, how did I NOT see that?" Ashara Dayne was just introduced recently, and it would almost be disappointing if she played a major part in the plot of the story, at least for me.

[King_Baratheon]

We've seen baby-switching several times throughout this story---Dalla's son and Gilly's son, Aegon, Bran and Rickon for the miller's boys, etc. When you have multiple heirs to a hunted House, you separate them, so that if one is killed, the other will survive. That's why Bran and Rickon separated, for example. So it seems strange to me that Ser Willam Derry, who held (ostensibly) the last two remaining Targaryen heirs, never separated them. There's no reason to think he knew about Varys's plan with Aegon (if Aegon isn't a fake). So why on earth did he keep them together?

I think it's very interesting that Ashara Dayne keeps weaving into the story. Ashara was supposedly dishonored by "Stark", gave birth to a stillborn girl, then killed herself. Ashara was a lady-in-waiting to Princess Elia. The Daynes have Valyrian coloring---we saw the hair in Darkstar and Ashara herself had the eyes.

Viserys was too old to be switched, and too many people had seen him at court. Dany, however, was a baby, and switching her with an imposter would have been easy. Oh, if only there was some Targaryen loyalist, close to the royal family, who had a baby girl with Valyrian coloring! She could easily be switched with the baby princess, the real princess could be spirited off in secret, and when the girl was grown, Ser Willam would tell her the truth. Except Ser Willam died, so his secrets died with him; he didn't even have time to tell Viserys of the pact with Doran Martell, after all. And it's not like Viserys would have known the difference between two young girls.

I really wonder if GRRM is planning on the ultimate plot twist: everyone's so busy wondering if Jon is Ned's son, and now if Aegon is really Rhaegar's son, NOBODY is questioning whether Dany is really who she's supposed to be. But what do we know of Dany? She is the Mother of Dragons, but no prophecy calls her the Daughter of Dragons. She is the Child of Three, yet she claims descent from Aegon and Rhaenys, not from Aegon/Rhaenys/Visenya. As other threads have pointed out, Brandon Stark makes more sense than Eddard as the father of Ashara's daughter; Brandon had "the wolf blood," and since skinchanging ability seems to run in the Stark family, "the wolf blood" could be a euphemism for warging aptitude; if Dany's father was a warg (with a wolf, a horse, a dog, whatever), Dany would be the "Child of Three"--her mother, her father, and her father's bonded animal. If she's Ashara's daughter with Brandon Stark, Dany's taste in men suddenly makes a lot more sense. Dany has survived unbelievable hardships, she's compassionate yet badass, she's wonderful in a fight, but palace intrigue confuses her---now who does that sound like?

GRRM has spent several books stripping away House Targaryen's propaganda (which was so ingrained in Westerosi culture that the Targs themselves began believing it). Their silver hair/purple eyes, while uncommon in Westeros, are very common in Essos, so they're not a sign of Targaryen uniqueness. The Targs are not "blood of the dragon," since many Valyrians had dragons, and dragons are not drawn to Targaryen blood (as Quentin demonstrated by getting roasted). The Targs didn't really know how to care for dragons (since they chained them up in pits until they were shriveled and stunted), were unable to hatch eggs for over a century, and only survived the Doom because they lived at the crap end of the empire. Not to mention,

Rather than being evidence that Dany is a True Targ, couldn't this be evidence that she's NOT? The Targs all used horns to ride their dragons, but Dany rides Drogon without one. Maybe Dany isn't called the "Slayer of Lies" because she'll show who's a real Targaryen; her very existence---a Stark with dragons---"slays" the lies House Targaryen has been spewing for centuries. She can ride a dragon because innate warg ability---an ability she inherited from her Stark side---has begun manifesting.

According to Ser Barristan,

And when she's lost in the Dothraki sea, Dany notes,

Quaithe (whose mask seems "made of starlight," and we know House Dayne is heavily associated with a star), tells her to remember who she really is, and that the dragons know. Dany thinks that means she's only good for destruction, but maybe it's about her true identity? To go North to Winterfell, she must first go South to Starfall, to learn about what really happened with her parents. Dany's fate isn't to sit the Iron Throne, or even to conquer, it's to take her dragons to Winterfell, join up with her incredibly badass cousins, and defeat the Others. She's already ridden a mount to bed (her silver) and a mount for dread (Drogon). Her final mount---the mount for love---will probably be a direwolf, symbolizing the "love" Dany finally has (the love of an awesome family).

Great Argument! Though I completely disagree with it's feasibility. Dany is a Targ, I think young Griff is too (but perhaps not). Dany is a Targ, if she isn't that only means that GRRM is changing the story upside down and sideways as he's going along. We all know changing some things as you go is part of the writing process, but this is too far I say!

[Dragonfish]

Which of Dany's ancestors was fireproof? None. We know that many of them liked heat, but so do the Dornishmen, as Areo Hotah constantly reminds us. And where does House Dayne originate from?

Do we have any examples of non-Targs preferring scalding-hot baths? I don't think we do. To me, that's a pretty clear indication that Dany is at least part Targ.

Note that I'm not arguing Dany is immune to fire. But she, like other Targs, seems to have an unnatural "resistance" to heat that no other family shares.

[Miriamele]

Ashara Dayne was just introduced recently, and it would almost be disappointing if she played a major part in the plot of the story, at least for me.

Recently?! She was introduced in the first book. They keep mentioning her throughout the whole series.

Yes she might be a warg. Maybe I don't remember correctly but I think Bran and Rickon don't see the future only what happens simultaneously in a far away place. Jon has future visions, but he might be a Targ. Jojen has green dreams, they seem to be another variation, not what Dany has.

If R+L=D she was a year older than the queen's baby and it could've been a problem at the switch.

A pity only the first men are skinchangers. I would really like Tommen to bond with a lion outside Casterly Rock and to grow up to be a warrior to everyone's surprise.

[Wildmage]

I really don't think that the link between X chromosomes and madness is common knowledge.Besides, genetics in Martin's world can work however he wants it to work. I must protest this continued use of the "R^2=D" notation. R+R does not equal R^2, it equals 2R. Come on, people, remember your algebra!

Then you don't have a whole lot of knowledge. Anyways, I don't need a lecture on algebra since the notation is arbitrary. R+L=J, R*L=J, whatever. Fine if it's algebra you want, from now on I propose that we standardize our notation to (if only these forums did LaTeX) $\Sigma_{m=-\inf}^{\inf} J_m(A)J_{n-m}(B) = J_n(K)$, where A and B are parents and K is the kid.

I think you're over-thinking this.First of all, we know that Westeros genetics doesn't work like real-world genetics. See the whole "Baratheon hair color"/"The seed is strong" discussion. Westeros genetics works however Marting needs them to work for his story.Second, even assuming that Martin knows all about sex-linked recessive traits, I can guarantee you that Rhaella didn't. There is no evidence that anyone in Westeros has a clue about genetics beyond noticing that kids often look like their parents. Your theory requires not only for Martin to make this part of his world, but for Rhaella to be able to go through this same thought-process. Otherwise, it is equally probable that, yes, Dany had 50% chance of ending up nuts, but she got lucky.

In terms of magic like warging and dragon birthing, it sure would not, but in other things why shouldn't it? I mean they don't need to know about alleles to catch onto the whole hair colour scandal. To us we see that Robert's 20+ bastards all have brown-black hair with all different women, and so we know that he is extremely likely to be a carrier of two dark haired pairs and doesn't have a blond recessive allele. They see 20+ bastards with black hair, all three legit with blond and know that something is up without knowing genetics.

With the Targs it's the same thing. Pyromad brother husband who mistreats you, or kind, intelligent warrior son. Who would you rather have a child with, knowing nothing of chromosomes? Of course this is assuming that Rhaegar and Aerys were the only grown male Targs around. I'm not too knowledgeable about backstory, so I don't know if Rhaella had other brothers, or male cousins around at the time, but it's not too much of a stretch to think that she might have chosen a Targ man who wasn't her abusive husband to be the father of her final child. A Targ man so that Aerys doesn't become suspicious if the child doesn't look like them, and someone other than the king because it was a loveless marriage.

Actually, Rhaegar being Dany's dad would make her the child of three: Aerys, Rhaella, and Rhaegar.

[tze]

Do we have any examples of non-Targs preferring scalding-hot baths? I don't think we do. To me, that's a pretty clear indication that Dany is at least part Targ.

Note that I'm not arguing Dany is immune to fire. But she, like other Targs, seems to have an unnatural "resistance" to heat that no other family shares.

(emphasis mine)

Do we have any examples of Targs preferring scalding-hot baths? Other than Dany? The only other Targ that I can think of that explicitly liked heat was Aegon V (Egg), and I can't remember anyone ever saying that his love of heat extended to liking scalding-hot anything. I don't think we've seen or heard of any member of House Targaryen who bathed in scalding hot water.

My general point is that, while House Targaryen likes to associate itself with fire, there's precious little evidence that they actually had any unique supernatural affinity with fire. An affinity for incinerating themselves, absolutely. But while I'm sure House Targaryen would have loved to be able to bathe in scalding hot water, there's no evidence (please, cite me a source if I've missed something) that any of them could before Dany showed up. So I don't think that could be evidence that she's a Targ, since that's not a Targ ability.

[MyDogIsNamedDanerys]

Have you been hiding under a rock to the last few decades of scientific research?

Actually, no, I haven't been under a rock. I study genetics.

And you have cited one study that shows that some genes associated with general cognitive ability are on the X.

First off, that has nothing to do with madness, since general cognitive ability is how good you are at taking a panel of general intelligence tests and has nothing to do with insanity.

Secondly, even though there is an excess of X-linked genes associated with cognitive ability (NOT MADNESS, once again - these mostly genes ass'd with mental retardation), this excess is not enough to explain the supposed "30%" difference in cognitive ability between males and females (which TBH is a rather controversial statement to make and I wouldn't have let that past review). And even if it was, the vast majority of the variation in mental retardation has nothing to do with the X (they found 79% of all the associated genes are autosomal).

Finally even if that was what they had found (which it wasn't) it's always a super-super bad idea to conflate findings like this with real human condition by saying things like "men are more likely to be mad because look at this study found more X linked genes associated with cognition!" because that can lead to some nasty stereotyping.

[Dragonfish]

(emphasis mine)

Do we have any examples of Targs preferring scalding-hot baths? Other than Dany? The only other Targ that I can think of that explicitly liked heat was Aegon V (Egg), and I can't remember anyone ever saying that his love of heat extended to liking scalding-hot anything. I don't think we've seen or heard of any member of House Targaryen who bathed in scalding hot water.

My general point is that, while House Targaryen likes to associate itself with fire, there's precious little evidence that they actually had any unique supernatural affinity with fire. An affinity for incinerating themselves, absolutely. But while I'm sure House Targaryen would have loved to be able to bathe in scalding hot water, there's no evidence (please, cite me a source if I've missed something) that any of them could before Dany showed up. So I don't think that could be evidence that she's a Targ, since that's not a Targ ability.

From The Sworn Sword:

Dunk stepped into the tub and eased himself down until the water covered him up to his chin. It was still scalding hot on top, though cooler farther down. He clenched his teeth to keep from yelping. If he did the boy would laugh. Egg liked his bathwater scalding hot.

[Dragonfish]

Then you don't have a whole lot of knowledge.

This comment is sort of funny in light of MDIND's post above.

Anyway, while I don't have much knowledge of genetics beyond the basic Mendelian stuff, the fact remains that what you were talking about is not common knowledge. Seriously, I challenge you to find someone not in the field of genetics who can reproduce what you've written here regarding the supposed link between the X chromosome and madness.

Anyways, I don't need a lecture on algebra since the notation is arbitrary. R+L=J, R*L=J, whatever. Fine if it's algebra you want, from now on I propose that we standardize our notation to (if only these forums did LaTeX) $\Sigma_{m=-\inf}^{\inf} J_m(A)J_{n-m}(B) = J_n(K)$, where A and B are parents and K is the kid.

My comment about the notation was meant to be somewhat humorous.

Besides, while the notation may be arbitrary, the use of addition to indicate parentage is the main convention. Until now no one ever used multiplication for this purpose. It's always R+L, or N+A, or N+L (for the really out there theories). So the theory that Rhaegar and Rhaella slept together ought to be given the notation R+R, or more simply, 2R, in order to remain consistent with the convention as established by this board.

This is quite possibly the most pedantic post I've ever written.

[Selmy]

Have we ruled out the possibility that Dany is a time traveler and is actually the Dany that went to Dorne?

[MyDogIsNamedDanerys]

Have we ruled out the possibility that Dany is a time traveler and is actually the Dany that went to Dorne?

Hmm... seems unlikely considering that Daenerys had a life-long and well documented love affair with her half brother and then lived out all her days in Dorne. But its totally possible! Maybe Dragons can travel through time ala Pern! Dany could be flashing back and forth.

[tze]

Dunk stepped into the tub and eased himself down until the water covered him up to his chin. It was still scalding hot on top, though cooler farther down. He clenched his teeth to keep from yelping. If he did the boy would laugh. Egg liked his bathwater scalding hot.

:)

But I will counter with two points: first, Dunk calls (the top of) this water "scalding," yet he himself doesn't get blisters. There's a difference between "very hot" and "will cause my skin an injury", the former we see every day, the latter would be evidence of some special supernatural trait. Dunk never strikes me as good with heat, as throughout his stories, he's constantly kvetching about the heat. His definition of "scalding" would be different than, say, a Dornishman's. It would be different if Egg was textually shown to be fine with water that blistered Dunk's skin, but we never see anything like that.

Second, who was Egg's grandmother? Myriah Martell. Of Dorne. Who's to say that Egg's love of heat didn't come from her?

[Dragonfish]

But I will counter with two points: first, Dunk calls (the top of) this water "scalding," yet he himself doesn't get blisters. There's a difference between "very hot" and "will cause my skin an injury", the former we see every day, the latter would be evidence of some special supernatural trait. Dunk never strikes me as good with heat, as throughout his stories, he's constantly kvetching about the heat. His definition of "scalding" would be different than, say, a Dornishman's. It would be different if Egg was textually shown to be fine with water that blistered Dunk's skin, but we never see anything like that.

I don't think we're told whether or not the water gave Dunk blisters. All we know is that it was "scalding hot", and it nearly made Dunk yelp. We are also told that Egg likes those sorts of baths. This is a pretty direct link between Egg and Daenerys, I think.

Second, who was Egg's grandmother? Myriah Martell. Of Dorne. Who's to say that Egg's love of heat didn't come from her?

We are not just talking about a simple preference for hotter climates here. We are talking about having an affinity for scalding hot temperatures in your bath water. This is a pretty unusual trait, and we have no examples of any Dornish people who have it. The only characters who are demonstrated to have this trait are Targs, or are at least purported to be Targs. So I think the simplest explanation is that both of these people are indeed Targs.

[Jayce]

I've only just found this and I really like it.

Aegon, not a baby swap but people believe it is. (Yes, I don't believe Aegon is that baby)

Dany a baby swap but people believe she isn't.

I don't think it is too contrived to fool people in to think one is and one isn't when it could be the other way around.

[Kanon]

I really like this theory but we had too many switched babies already...

[stanprollyright]

I'm so tired of baby-switching and baby-switching theories, and such-and-such may really be somebody else's bastard. Can't somebody be who they seem to be? There can be other types of plot twists/surprises.

[Lord of Insignificance]

Jon and Dany are both the children of Old Nan and Rhaegar.

It is known.

[CrypticWeirwood]

But I will counter with two points: first, Dunk calls (the top of) this water "scalding," yet he himself doesn't get blisters. There's a difference between "very hot" and "will cause my skin an injury", the former we see every day, the latter would be evidence of some special supernatural trait. Dunk never strikes me as good with heat, as throughout his stories, he's constantly kvetching about the heat.

If we assume that the First Men aren’t as tolerant of heat as certain others like Dornish or Targaryens, then that could be explained by Dunk secretly being a Blackwater by-blow, and therefore have the blood of the First Men running through his veins. He may have even been Bloodraven’s nephew or cousin, which is why Bloodraven kept his eye on him.

[CrypticWeirwood]

There are also two forshadowing/thoughts for this already. When Barristan returns to Dany from the sewers and tells her his reason for hiding was to see what she was like first, we have her asking: If I am not my father's daughter, then who am I. And Barristan's musings about the events at Harrenhall where we find out Ashara had a stillborn daughter, he talks about Ashara's purple eyes and then muses that Dany has the same eyes and that when he looks at Dany he sees Ashara's daughter.

This is without question the single most disturbing thing I have read here in aeons.

While it by no means proves there’s anything to it, it absolutely confirms that George Martin is one of the most devious men alive, because he’s obviously messing with our heads, no ifs ands or buts about it.

[Lord Varys]

The problem with this theory is that Dany is a girl. Ser Willem most likely did not consider her to become/be an actual pretender to the Iron Throne. She was 'his little princess' as Dany remembers it. And later on when Illyrio and Varys started their Drogo scheme she was apparently only the coin to buy Khal Drogo, not an important player herself.