[TWoW SPOILERS] Sellswords (from Theon I)

[chris999]

Stannis says the Iron Bank has opened their coffers to me, not opened half-way or partially. This leads me to think that the bank is fully invested in Stannis' endeavor. Not to mention that Tycho has likely charged interest up the arse. I think Stannis is hoping to have all the gold in the Westerlands, High Garden and Old Town at this disposal.

I dont think it is unlimited funding. The reason that the banker is even making this loan is because he sees it as the only way that Westeros' debt to the Bank of Bravos will be paid.

King Robert owed the Iron Bank 6 million Dragon$, Stannis told the banker that he will repay his brother's debt if the Iron Bank will loan him enough money to help him win the war. (Cercei told Bravos that she wont pay the debt, so the only way that the Iron Bank can recoup their losses is to side with Stannis.)

I think an interesting theory is that Stannis will borrow enough money to win his war, then he will say "To Hell with the Iron Bank"

The Iron Bank will then come to the Faceless Men for an assassin. (The Faceless Men specialize in assassinating Kings...)

Arya, on her first major mission, will sail across the sea and kill Stannis. Not only will this event bring Arya back to Westeros, but it will also free Melissandre from service to Stannis, and she will become advisor to the new leader of the North Jon Snow/Stark.

She is waiting for this oppertunity because when she tries to see the PTWP in the flames, she only sees Jon's face. She realizes that she was wrong about Stannis. (It wouldnt be the first time that she has misinterpreted the flames...)

Haha! cool theory huh?

[AlexKerscher]

Stannis would never turn back on his word for the Iron Bank. Just like Ned wouldn't.

[GreenHand]

I think we can all agree that Stannis will never deny the Iron Bank the gold he has promised. The question rather is whether he will be ABLE to pay the dragons back.

How patient will the Iron Bank be. Stannis has shown that he feels obliged to reward his leal knights for their service. And he knows he must repair in the land that which is ravaged and broken. (By virtue of his duty and so that the land is better able to generate the money the crown owes).

In principle, very broadly speaking, Cersei had somewhat valid point. One needed to hold the realms together and protect it first otherwise there wouldn't be anything left with which to repay the Iron Bank. I think the idea has its merits. I think what turned Iron Bank against the Lannister-Tyrell alliance controlling the Iron Throne was more a disaster of diplomacy.

If an agreement and accommodation with the Iron Bank had been reached BEFORE they simply failed to pay then things might have looked decided different. All on the council agreed that it was imperitive for the Master of Coin to travel to Braavos to negotiate with the Iron Bank but the Master of Coin was so intimidated that he kept procrastinating. The Iron Bank is iron and will strike without mercy at those who disregard them but they are not unreasonable. They emminently flexible *businessmen* who, it seems, are open to any accommodation or service (for an appropriate fee, of course). They could have been placated or bargained with, but not flagrantly disregarded.

So the question is when Stannis sees the mess left behind should he take the Iron Throne how will he balance his priorities and how will he incorporate the Iron Bank under these pressures. Diplomacy is NOT Stannis's strong suit. :D

[AlexKerscher]

We don't even know if there will BE an Iron Bank of Braavos by the end of the series.

[Lady Octarina]

Hmm, this discussion made me wonder... if the Iron Bank really is in league with the FM, could it be that, since Cersei outright refused to pay them, they will send a FM after her? Could that be how Arya gets to her? Or, even more interesting, could it be that the FM will be the ones to kill Tommen and Myrcella to punish Cersei?

Anyway, whether or not it's Stannis who gets the throne, someone will have to negotiate with the Iron Bank and pay that debt. And how would they do that? Take all the Lannister gold, since they will be defeated? The thing is, not all contenders to the Iron Throne will be willing to pay them, and that's another factor to consider when thinking about who gets the throne. Would Daenerys pay them? Young Griff? Jon? I think they will be safer with Jon or Stannis, and they know it.

[AlexKerscher]

If the Faceless Men are as expensive as Robert said, maybe it was cheaper to finance Stannis's war than to hire a Faceless to do the job.

But Lady Octarina made me think about something... If Tommem and Myrcella die, the throne would be unquestionably, by right, Stannis's. Would the Lannister bend their knees if both their claims die? I doubt it.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

Hmm, this discussion made me wonder... if the Iron Bank really is in league with the FM, could it be that, since Cersei outright refused to pay them, they will send a FM after her? Could that be how Arya gets to her? Or, even more interesting, could it be that the FM will be the ones to kill Tommen and Myrcella to punish Cersei?

Anyway, whether or not it's Stannis who gets the throne, someone will have to negotiate with the Iron Bank and pay that debt. And how would they do that? Take all the Lannister gold, since they will be defeated? The thing is, not all contenders to the Iron Throne will be willing to pay them, and that's another factor to consider when thinking about who gets the throne. Would Daenerys pay them? Young Griff? Jon? I think they will be safer with Jon or Stannis, and they know it.

With both Dany and Young Griff being living practically all of their lives in Essos, I have no doubt they know of the IB's power and prestige. I'm sure Griff/Illyrio/Varys will stress the importance to Young Griff and Barristan/Tyrion/ect will stress the importance to Dany. The iron clad honor of Stannis and Jon has already been mentioned.

Should one of the expected contenders come to the throne, I'm pretty sure repayment of the crowns debts will be one of the first orders of business. The wealth of the Westerlands and the Reach alone will be far more than enough to take care of the iron bank. Not to mention that Dany is likely bringing all of the wealth of the slave cities that she has captured.

The one question is that should anyone other than Stannis come to the throne will that ruler recognize the additional funds borrowed by Stannis? My guess is no, as I certainly would not.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

If the Faceless Men are as expensive as Robert said, maybe it was cheaper to finance Stannis's war than to hire a Faceless to do the job.

But Lady Octarina made me think about something... If Tommem and Myrcella die, the throne would be unquestionably, by right, Stannis's. Would the Lannister bend their knees if both their claims die? I doubt it.

Not unquestionably. The Baratheon claim was always dodgy from the start (claimed from Robert's Targaryen grandmother). The realm has no love for Stannis and would certainly welcome Young Griff, Dany or Jon in a heartbeat. The North may be the one realm that would likely support his claim. But having been decimated by war, the North alone is not enough.

[Lady Octarina]

With both Dany and Young Griff being living practically all of their lives in Essos, I have no doubt they know of the IB's power and prestige. I'm sure Griff/Illyrio/Varys will stress the importance to Young Griff and Barristan/Tyrion/ect will stress the importance to Dany. The iron clad honor of Stannis and Jon has already been mentioned.

Should one of the expected contenders come to the throne, I'm pretty sure repayment of the crowns debts will be one of the first orders of business. The wealth of the Westerlands and the Reach alone will be far more than enough to take care of the iron bank. Not to mention that Dany is likely bringing all of the wealth of the slave cities that she has captured.

The one question is that should anyone other than Stannis come to the throne will that ruler recognize the additional funds borrowed by Stannis? My guess is no, as I certainly would not.

I mentioned that because undoubtedly Daenerys and YG make rash decisions, and they have no love for the Baratheon, so they could see paying their debts is not their problem, even with all the gold that might be available to them. I just don't see them following wiser people's advices in this case, the same way they have refused in others.

I don't think Stannis's debts can be seen as Crown debts, since he was just a contender for the throne as he made it. The Iron Bank giving him money was like betting of who would get the Throne. The other contenders certainly wouldn't pay it, or be expected to, except perhaps Jon, who might profit from it if he remains on Stannis's side?

Funny thing about this discussion is: if Westeros truly becomes 7 Kingdoms or so again, who would inherit the debt?

[7V3N]

Hmm, this discussion made me wonder... if the Iron Bank really is in league with the FM, could it be that, since Cersei outright refused to pay them, they will send a FM after her? Could that be how Arya gets to her? Or, even more interesting, could it be that the FM will be the ones to kill Tommen and Myrcella to punish Cersei?

A FM cannot kill someone they know, so Arya would have to lie (and very well since she is probably the youngest, least experienced FM) if she wanted the contract.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

I mentioned that because undoubtedly Daenerys and YG make rash decisions, and they have no love for the Baratheon, so they could see paying their debts is not their problem, even with all the gold that might be available to them. I just don't see them following wiser people's advices in this case, the same way they have refused in others.

I don't think Stannis's debts can be seen as Crown debts, since he was just a contender for the throne as he made it. The Iron Bank giving him money was like betting of who would get the Throne. The other contenders certainly wouldn't pay it, or be expected to, except perhaps Jon, who might profit from it if he remains on Stannis's side?

Funny thing about this discussion is: if Westeros truly becomes 7 Kingdoms or so again, who would inherit the debt?

Many people have embraced the return to separate kingdoms theory. I could not disagree more. After nearly 300 years of Targ rule and the iron throne, I think everyone has seen the benefits of having a unified government.

But you do raise an interesting dilemma. The bigger question is what would the iron bank do if the kingdoms separate and they are not paid? It makes me think back to the war of the Ninepenny Kings. This was the last attempted foreign invasion of Westeros. It was put down because the Targaryens and a unified Seven Kingdoms were able to move quickly and send and army to the Stepstones in order to intercept the NPK's.

It would seem that individual, war ravaged kingdoms are quite susceptible to foreign attack. I can see the iron bank funding a campaign to conquer vulnerable regions ( Riverlands, Crownlands, Dragonstone/Blackwater Bay, regions of the Stormlands). What better message to future clients of the bank than conquest for failure/refusal to pay.

[chris999]

Massey is sent to Braavos to secure mercenaries for Stannis.

Remeber, The golden company is already contracted to help Aegon.

Most of the other decent mercenaries are fighting against dany in Slaver's bay...

Maybe Massey is able to only find a very few mercenaries with poor reputations to bring back, so since he has some gold left over, he decides to ask the faceless men to provide him with an assasin to kill Ramsey Bolton as well.

The price shouldnt be too high because Ramsay is just a bastard from a major house, not a king or lord.

Arya goes back to the north with the rest of the mercs, and kills Ramsay.

This would put Arya back in the North which would be inpressive. That means that All of the remaining Starks are back in the North except for Sansa, who is close by in the Vale. This sets up the time when they will eventually be reunited.

[Brucolac]

The price for a faceless man isn't based on who you are asking to kill but on how much you have to lose. Stannis would be better able to afford them without money from the Iron Bank.

While it makes sense for them to see Stannis as their best choice in recouping the 1-2 million dragons owed to them currently; it is more questionable on how much they are going to have to invest to get that back. Sure it is great for them to be owed more money by the King of westeros who won't default, but they are going to have to pay for everything that takes Stannis from starving in the snow with 5000 men to conquering all of the Seven Kingdoms and the 80,000 to 100,000 men he is going up against. That includes matching the Lanisters dollar for dollar if Stannis starts to make ground. If it is actually possible for Stannis to buy the throne, they can just as easily spend to stop it.

At the same time, GGRM has never really dwelled on the economy of his world, so it is hard to say what a dragon buys. The best example might be in D&E over hundred years ago where he sells a decent horse for 4 dragons and spends 80% of that on a suit of armor if I remember correctly. The Hound and the archer that won the tourney, were able to go through 40,000 and 10,000 dragons respectively in a year. Arya has a scene were she sells Bolton's horses and gets robbed, but I forget what she was asking and what she got. It is all pretty vague, and now we have this premise where economics is going to make someone a contender for the throne again. It is kind of like turning an extra into a lead actor at the last minute.

[jarl the climber]

The best chance Stannis has is to turn the cloaks of the Golden Company, they fight for gold they are sellswords. Stannis will have the gold to pay Salla Saan who naval force may have been augumented by Aurane Waters, there are also 50 ships at White Harbor that lack officers and experienced seamen. Stannis all ready has 15,000-20,000 sailors and soldiers if he can turn the golden company and they are all ready in Westeros at Storms End. The only thing Stannis has lacked is the gold and now he has it.

[Brucolac]

He is missing a lot more than that compared to his foes since his loss on the blackwater, but if we are only talking about gold, the Iron bank is going to have to match the wealth of the Lannisters and the Tyrells in hopes they have a chance to recover that amount and the amount which was already owed, which is paltry by comparison to what the future investment will need to be. If gold can buy the throne, it can just as easily defend it and his opponents are the two richest realms in westeros that have soldiers, power and wealth.

[7V3N]

Don't count out the possibility of the Northmen joining Stannis. They hate the Boltons, Freys, and Lannisters--all whom fight for King Tommen.

[Melq]

I am with Lady Octarina about the Iron Bank betting with Stannis, from what I understood of Iron Bank, they are the biggest and richest bank, no Westeros Lord got enough fortune to compete against the Iron Bank, that could mean they could support different factions or sit in the throne whoever will pay the debt.

Actually Ser Justin journey to hire sellswords might never happen, IF whoever is sitting in the throne at the moment sends the Iron Bank a message about paying their debt, and considering the time that would take Ser Justin go to the free cities from Winterfell and hire mercenaries and return, Tyrells ( if they win the regency), Aegon, even Danny might be at KL because nobody else other than Cersei will be dumb enough to deny the payment, this way Stannis support from the Iron Bank ends.

Ser Kevan tell us in ADWD that he could pay the debt with Lannister gold or raising taxes, so, economy wise it doesn't look to me like an impossible debt to pay, even if at the end of the war Westeros is in complete devastation ( which is probably going to happen).

(offtopic) Looks like I am the only person around here, that actually gives for a fact that Stannis=Dead :dunce: , Why GRRM would lie to us on this? other than Beric Dondarrion and Cat, everyone who was declared dead, specially kings, ended up being dead.(offtopic)

[7V3N]

(offtopic) Looks like I am the only person around here, that actually gives for a fact that Stannis=Dead :dunce: , Why GRRM would lie to us on this? other than Beric Dondarrion and Cat, everyone who was declared dead, specially kings, ended up being dead.(offtopic)

You mean why would Ramsay lie to Jon? Damn the man, GRRM never tells us a thing! :bang:

[Melq]

You mean why would Ramsay lie to Jon? Damn the man, GRRM never tells us a thing! :bang:

Yes, I just think Stannis is over, most of his southern men if not all already lost their hope all the POVs of Asha hint us to his end.. IMO Hes dead or captive. I truly believe the battle happened, perhaps Manderly managed to escape, and there were many deserters, even if the Boltons won their power is highly diminished. Perhaps Roose Bolton might have even died in the battle, that could explain why Ramsay sent the message to Jon, the message itself is pretty dumb, I doubt Roose would authorized it.

[Lebronn Jaime]

Why GRRM would lie to us on this? other than Beric Dondarrion and Cat, everyone who was declared dead, specially kings, ended up being dead.(offtopic)

Baby Aegon, The Hound, Ramsay Bolton, Jon Connington, etc. would like a word with you. And those guys aren't even undead. We were legitimately led to believe they were dead - told point blank, in fact - only to find out the opposite.

The best chance Stannis has is to turn the cloaks of the Golden Company, they fight for gold they are sellswords. Stannis will have the gold to pay Salla Saan who naval force may have been augumented by Aurane Waters, there are also 50 ships at White Harbor that lack officers and experienced seamen. Stannis all ready has 15,000-20,000 sailors and soldiers if he can turn the golden company and they are all ready in Westeros at Storms End. The only thing Stannis has lacked is the gold and now he has it.

The Golden Company (10,000 men, not 20, and scattered across the Stormlands, not concentrated at Storm's End) has a greater purpose than that of any normal sellsword: to regain their lost lands in Westeros. That goal is intrinsicly linked with seating the "rightful" heir on the Iron Throne. It's doubtful that Stannis would be able to turn them away from Aegon, let alone link up with them or receive any benefit from them whatsoever in his current, life-or-death situation. Salladhor has abandoned Stannis and his whereabouts are unknown. If he returned, knowing Stannis, he would probably be executed.