This drives me crazy about Lord Snow

[bemused]

That sums it up pretty neatly , IMO , Yeade.

Certainly for as long as Cersei is in *ahem* control in King's Landing , we have to consider her plan to send false conscripts to kill Jon as having been merely held in abeyance. I think the Boltons would want to remove Jon anyway, once they got settled in , but sooner rather than later, if Robb's document should surface with the same plans for the succession that he discussed with his mother.

I don't imagine either would be much concerned if the NW and the Wall's defences were destroyed in the process.

Mulled Wino..Back up thread you mentioned that Slynt wasn't that unpopular and had been likely to win election.... I beg to differ.. the problem was, IIRC , that the 2 leaders , Mallister and Pyke , had a healthy majority between them , but neither would concede to the other.The longer this dragged on, the more brothers were prone to be swayed by Thorne ,Slynt and Marsh , through sheer voter fatigue. If Jon's friends hadn't put his name forward , Slynt may well have won by being the second or third or fourth choice of the majority of those who voted for him..I wouldn't exactly call that popular...If Stannis had actually appointed someone ,even his choice might have been more popular;) ( I doubt he would have chosen Slynt ).

This is what makes me frustrated when some posters have assumed that most of the Watch would sympathize with Bowen. I think it would clearly be a minority ( and maybe a very small minority when you separate out those who may have been unhappy , but for whom assassination would be out of the question ).

[Mulled Wino]

That sums it up pretty neatly , IMO , Yeade.

Certainly for as long as Cersei is in *ahem* control in King's Landing , we have to consider her plan to send false conscripts to kill Jon as having been merely held in abeyance. I think the Boltons would want to remove Jon anyway, once they got settled in , but sooner rather than later, if Robb's document should surface with the same plans for the succession that he discussed with his mother.

I don't imagine either would be much concerned if the NW and the Wall's defences were destroyed in the process.

Mulled Wino..Back up thread you mentioned that Slynt wasn't that unpopular and had been likely to win election.... I beg to differ.. the problem was, IIRC , that the 2 leaders , Mallister and Pyke , had a healthy majority between them , but neither would concede to the other.The longer this dragged on, the more brothers were prone to be swayed by Thorne ,Slynt and Marsh , through sheer voter fatigue. If Jon's friends hadn't put his name forward , Slynt may well have won by being the second or third or fourth choice of the majority of those who voted for him..I wouldn't exactly call that popular...If Stannis had actually appointed someone ,even his choice might have been more popular;) ( I doubt he would have chosen Slynt ).

This is what makes me frustrated when some posters have assumed that most of the Watch would sympathize with Bowen. I think it would clearly be a minority ( and maybe a very small minority when you separate out those who may have been unhappy , but for whom assassination would be out of the question ).

I don't remember the numbers but I'm pretty sure annoying Slynt had at least 100 supporters, but those are fair points. He had Thorne and a couple other sr type rangers in his little clique if I remember correctly.

Yarwyck is a good example of your point. He switched abruptly when Jon Snow was entered as a candidate.

TBH, I always thought it was totally flukey that Slynt had as much support as he did when the votes were going down. He was far too green on the wall IMO to have had any support at all IMO.

[Yeade]

On the topic of Janos Slynt's candidacy in the ASOS election for Lord Commander, I think the implication's that Tywin Lannister and the Iron Throne successfully put political pressure on the NW to choose his "faithful friend and servant." There's an earlier Tyrion POV wherein this issue is discussed (ISBN: 0-553-57342-X, pp. 438-40):

Pycelle tottered in on a cane and stopped long enough to give Tyrion a look that would curdle milk. ... "My lord Hand," the old man said, bowing as deeply as he could without falling, "there has been another bird from Castle Black. ... The letter is from the same Bowen Marsh who sent the last. The castellan. He writes that Lord Mormont has sent word of wildlings moving south in vast numbers. ...

"Mormont sent a bird from the Haunted Forest, to report that he was under attack. More ravens have returned since, but none with letters. This Bowen Marsh fears Lord Mormont slain, with all his strength. ... Marsh fears the wildlings have killed them and that the Wall itself may be attacked next." He fumbled in his robe and found the paper. "Here is his letter, my lord, a plea to all five kings. He wants men, as many men as we can send him."

"Five kings?" [Lord Tywin] was annoyed. "There is one king in Westeros. Those fools in black might try and remember that if they wish His Grace to heed them. When you reply, tell him that Renly is dead, and the others are traitors and pretenders." ...

Pycelle bobbed his head up and down. "What shall I tell Marsh concerning the men he begs for? Shall we convene the council..."

"There is no need. The Night's Watch is a pack of thieves, killers, and baseborn churls, but it occurs to me that they

could

prove otherwise, given proper discipline. If Mormont is indeed dead, the black brothers must choose a new Lord Commander."

Pycelle gave Tyrion a sly glance. "An excellent thought, my lord. I know the very man. Janos Slynt."

Tyrion liked that notion not at all. "The black brothers choose their own commander," he reminded them. "Lord Slynt is new to the Wall. I know, for I sent him there. Why should they pick

him

over a dozen more senior men?"

"Because," his father said, in a tone that suggested Tyrion was quite the simpleton, "if they do not vote as they are told, their Wall will melt before it sees another man." ... He turned to Pycelle. "Send a raven. Write that King Joffrey was deeply saddened to hear of Lord Commander Mormont's death but regrets that he can spare no men just now, whilst so many rebels and usurpers remain in the field. Suggest that matters might be quite different once the throne is secure... provided the king has full confidence in the leadership of the Watch. In closing, ask Marsh to pass along His Grace's fondest regards to his faithful friend and servant, Lord Janos Slynt."

There's a bit of back-and-forth I cut about how the commanders of the Shadow Tower and Eastwatch (a Mallister and one of the ironborn) would not serve Tywin's purposes, how Slynt being a butcher's son is of no consequence in the NW and him selling himself to the highest bidder is a point in his favor (for who can bid higher than the Lannisters?). At any rate, I think the NW receives Tywin's message--comply and elect a Lannister toady Lord Commander or else don't expect a whit of the aid you so desperately need from the Iron Throne--loud and clear. The black brothers don't strike me as particularly pleased with this prospect, so the election drags on, most of the men hoping either Mallister or Pyke can win the majority but more and more of them becoming disillusioned as time passes.

ETA: FYI, Mulled Wino, the count before Sam speaks with Pyke and Mallister is, "Two hundred and three for Ser Denys Mallister. One hundred and sixty-nine for Cotter Pyke. One hundred and thirty-seven for Lord Janos Slynt, seventy-two for Othell Yarwyck, five for Three-Finger Hobb, and two for Dolorous Edd." This is the tenth vote in as many days, following Marsh's withdrawal in favor of Slynt. Mallister is down ten votes, Pyke's down eighteen, and Slynt's up sixty-three since the previous night. Marsh's last tally is forty-nine.

Enter Jon, the dark horse candidate. Thanks to Sam's politicking, he has the support of Mallister and Pyke. Better yet, electing Jon Lord Commander asserts the NW's autonomy from the Lannisters and Iron Throne while perhaps pleasing Stannis, who's taken a noticeable interest in Jon. The latter is arguably more important than staying in the good graces of the regime at King's Landing because Stannis is right there on the Wall with his entire army to be violently offended.

Of course, us readers know Jon becoming Lord Commander stymies Stannis's plans to install him as the Stark in Winterfell beyond what even Jon's refusal of the offer can manage. Though Stannis's character is such that he can respect Jon for his decision and still curse his stubbornness. :laugh:

It's clear from Tywin's attitude, IMO, that a Iron Throne held by the Lannisters has no respect for the NW's neutrality or purpose of defending the realm long before Cersei hatches her assassination plot in AFFC. Actually, this is typical of how southerners view the Wall, I believe, and the northmen are hardly an improvement in the practical sense so long as they're occupied with power politics closer to home.

All of Westeros with the sole exception of Stannis, who has very few options after the Blackwater, can't be bothered to send the NW any help when the Wall's about to be attacked by a massive wildling army. I don't imagine that help would be more forthcoming in the event of the ice zombie apocalypse seeing as pretty much every attempt to alert the Seven Kingdoms at large as to the threat of the Others has been summarily dismissed as fantasy (oh, the irony!), often with laughter. Hell, Bowen Marsh and his fellow traditionalists seem to think the coming winter can be weathered by just holing up behind the Wall for years while the Others... Take an extended coffee break that's worth waiting thousands of years for after killing the last wildling in the Haunted Forest? I have no idea.

Which leads me to one of my main issues with many criticisms of Jon's actions in ADWD. No one can present an alternative that doesn't result in the Wall's defenses failing. Or the mundane ones, at least, forcing everyone to rely on the presumed magical wards that 1) not much is known about, by either the readers or characters, 2) have never been tested against wights or the Others, who've had ages to prepare for this rather conspicuous obstacle, given that the Wall's raised after the Long Night, and 3) wouldn't be able to stop concerted attempts by the remaining wildlings to get south, anyways. It's fine to claim that what Jon does is contrary to NW traditions and skirts oathbreaking. Realize, however, that doing anything else apparently dooms the Wall and Westeros along with it, thereby definitely violating the second half of the NW vows ("I am the sword in the darkness..."). Somehow, it's damn hard to convince me that the NW's policy of noninterference is more important than saving the freakin' world.

[bemused]

:) Mulled Wino.. Yeah , Slynt was really just a donkey's ass .. but a nasty donkey's ass . Thorne withdrew his name ( he knew he wouldn't have enough votes) but he knew he could manipulate Slynt ,as we saw from Slynt's interrogation of Jon. I don't think Slynt had support among the rangers , but there was that other guy, (the one who kicked Jon in the ribs) who is now temporarily in charge at Eastwatch (whose name I can't think of). Who knows , maybe all of the rest were swayed by the veiled threat in Tywin's letter "approving" Slynt.. but it's possible there could have been some shenanigans with the proxys. Some men had to be left at Eastwatch and the Shadow Tower , so somebody must have held their proxies ?..I don't remember if it was mentioned , but I think proxies were mentioned for those who had to be on duty at CB.

Anyway, I think it was Thorne's intention to rule from behind the scenes , since he could play Slynt like a fiddle. And I think his influence was driving Bowen to a more extreme position than he might otherwise have taken. Jon was planning to do what he could to break them up, intending to give Thorne command of one of the smaller forts , but he obviously didn't realize how far Bowen had traveled along the path he was on.

It's quite possible Bowen always had a bit of a head start on that path, but Jon wasn't in a position to see it. Jon used to think of him as amiable enough , and before Mormont's ranging we didn't see any sign of animosity. We didn't notice any similarity of opinion between him and Thorne in the first book , but that doesn't mean it didn't exist. If Bowen was being honest in his opinion of Jon's promoting Satin , then we can assume Bowen also disapproved of Jon's appointment by Mormont , leaving him very susceptible to Thorne's propoganda...especially after his skirmish at the Shadow Tower.

ETA: This was auto saved from a failed post and off line glitch , earlier ...hope it still makes sense.;)

[bemused]

I couldn't agree more with this, from Yeade..

Which leads me to one of my main issues with many criticisms of Jon's actions in ADWD. No one can present an alternative that doesn't result in the Wall's defenses failing. Or the mundane ones, at least, forcing everyone to rely on the presumed magical wards that 1) not much is known about, by either the readers or characters, 2) have never been tested against wights or the Others, who've had ages to prepare for this rather conspicuous obstacle, given that the Wall's raised after the Long Night, and 3) wouldn't be able to stop concerted attempts by the remaining wildlings to get south, anyways. It's fine to claim that what Jon does is contrary to NW traditions and skirts oathbreaking. Realize, however, that doing anything else apparently dooms the Wall and Westeros along with it, thereby definitely violating the second half of the NW vows ("I am the sword in the darkness..."). Somehow, it's damn hard to convince me that the NW's policy of noninterference is more important than saving the freakin' world.

( I think my quoting skills are challenged,somewhat ):D

Violating the second half of the vows would be tragic...particularly since it's implied , by the fact that the second part is the only part Sam recites to pass the Black Gate, that it is the whole original vow ...and the rest was just added later , either as a matter of expedience or to allay the fears of Southern Lords ( or Kings ).

I know the characters who believe Jon is breaking his vows have no inkling of this ,and they can't be blamed for believing the vow to be as they learned it ...but they can be blamed for being too thick to see where their best chance for survival lies and how leaving the wildlings to a cruel fate conflicts with that second half.

Even the Mance excursion ,which Jon may consider a mistake, has resulted in weakening the Boltons' hold on the North .. which may result in the common good anyway.