Ned vs. Mance

[ab aeterno]

I can.

He does consider the actions of others, and his working with Renly wasn't necessary due to what knowledge he had at the time.

His reasoning is fine.

We've got the benefit of hindsight on our side, but his plan with LF was fine and would've worked if it had been anyone other than the most devious man in the seven kingdoms.

We didn't know it, so why should we expect Ned to?

He reasons, but only in the short term. He doesn't think about the consequences of Cersei escaping Robert, even if she doesn't kill Robert. He doesn't think about the consequences of demanding Tywin Lannister come to KL or be called a traitor. He doesn't think about the consequences of only telling a few people what he has found out. He doesn't think about the consequences of turning down LF's suggestion or Renly's suggestion. There are many other examples.

His plan with Littlefinger wasn't fine; he had just turned down LF's own plan, LF had told him not to trust LF, he couldn't even ask LF to make sure he had the Gold Cloaks on side because he was too proud or honorable. Renly came to Ned and offered him Renly's own loyal men, men he could reasonably be far more confident in trusting. His entire plan with LF came down to the fact that this man he had only just met told him that it would work; even after Ned had just told LF that he wouldn't do things as LF wanted. Someone who was aware of the nature of people and politics would at least have been suspicious

He also didn't consider the consequences of doing things in the relative privacy of the throne room the next day, after Cersei could prepare. If he had gone along with Renly he could have had control of KL that night. That would have been the smart thing to do. As he says himself, he is a soldier, he isn't cut out for this type of thinking.

And I can't speak for you, but when I was reading the relevent Ned chapters, alarm bells were ringing as to the foolishness of his actions as they were going on. It was blindingly obvious that he was moving from folly to folly.

[K1NGSLAYER]

hmm, while Ned may not have been stupid he definitely did make some (many) stupid decisions most of which had fairly disastrous outcomes and I think that accepting single combat against Mance would have been another fairly stupid decision. I'm still not sure whether I'm fully convinced that Ned would accept single combat though.

[Chaircat Meow]

We've got the benefit of hindsight on our side, but his plan with LF was fine and would've worked if it had been anyone other than the most devious man in the seven kingdoms.

We didn't know it, so why should we expect Ned to?

Because Littflefinger spelled it out for him. He said, I do not want Stannis on the throne, Ned said too bad, will you get me these men and LF said, ah ok. So what on earth did Ned think was in it for LF in supporting him? LF even told him straight up, earlier, don't trust me dude. Just how much more do you want LF to hold Ned's hand? I don't agree Ned was utterly oblivious of course, there was a certain element of very conscious choice in pursuing dubious plans to preserve honour and integrity, a kind of, if I don't win fairly, I don't want to win, but there was naivety too.

Edit: NINJAD.

[ab aeterno]

Because Littflefinger spelled it out for him. He said, I do not want Stannis on the throne, Ned said too bad, will you get me these men and LF said, ah ok. So what on earth did Ned think was in it for LF in supporting him? LF even told him straight up, earlier, don't trust me dude. Just how much more do you want LF to hold Ned's hand? I don't agree Ned was utterly oblivious of course, there was a certain element of very conscious choice in pursuing dubious plans to preserve honour and integrity, a kind of, if I don't win fairly, I don't want to win, but there was naivety too.

Edit: NINJAD.

:agree:

This might have been a fairer way to say it...

I don't dislike Ned, but he is blinded by his honor too often. He's a good guy to know, a good guy to have as a friend, but when there is anything remotely complicated or political going on he's an awful ally because he doesn't consider that most people involved don't care about honor.

[ab aeterno]

hmm, while Ned may not have been stupid he definitely did make some (many) stupid decisions most of which had fairly disastrous outcomes and I think that accepting single combat against Mance would have been another fairly stupid decision. I'm still not sure whether I'm fully convinced that Ned would accept single combat though.

No, I'm not convinced that he definitely would, but I think I would list him along with some others as characters who probably would.

Ned

Jaime

Barristan

Gregor

Sandor

Robert

The three in bold are the ones likely to actually be leading their armies, and out of the three of them, Ned is by far the most likely to lose such as combat, IMO.

Edit: Older Robert might die too...

[K1NGSLAYER]

I don't dislike Ned, but he is blinded by his honor too often. He's a good guy to know, a good guy to have as a friend, but when there is anything remotely complicated or political going on he's an awful ally because he doesn't consider that most people involved don't care about honor.

:agree:

This is basically my feelings for Ned as well. I think that he makes his choices assuming that people will see that they're honorable and then agree with him.

EDIT: I wouldn't underestimate older Robert, we haven't seen him fight so I can't really say but I still think he'd know a thing or two about wielding that Warhammer of his :) Other than that, though, I agree.

[ab aeterno]

EDIT: I wouldn't underestimate older Robert, we haven't seen him fight so I can't really say but I still think he'd know a thing or two about wielding that Warhammer of his :) Other than that, though, I agree.

He'll be fighting without armor until Lancel and Tyrek find the breastplate stretcher... :P

[K1NGSLAYER]

He'll be fighting without armor until Lancel and Tyrek find the breastplate stretcher... :P

hahahaha :laugh: that may be a slight disadvantage.

[Stannis Eats No Peaches]

Mance would get destroyed in a war with a unified North but I'm not sure if I would wholly support either side...but it would probably be Ned.

[Scipio Africanus]

Because Littflefinger spelled it out for him. He said, I do not want Stannis on the throne, Ned said too bad, will you get me these men and LF said, ah ok. So what on earth did Ned think was in it for LF in supporting him? LF even told him straight up, earlier, don't trust me dude. Just how much more do you want LF to hold Ned's hand? I don't agree Ned was utterly oblivious of course, there was a certain element of very conscious choice in pursuing dubious plans to preserve honour and integrity, a kind of, if I don't win fairly, I don't want to win, but there was naivety too.

I agree although to be fair, ol' Eddard wasn't used to KL politics. Doesn't excuse him for not accepting Renly's offer though. He already knew from the start that Lannisters were crawling all over the place, he should've allied himself with as many Lannister enemies as possible at leat temporarily.

I think he really ought to have fallen back on the Wall when he heard about the wildling concentration. So it's Jeor 'Custer' Mormont. Qhorin's advice was fucking stupid as well, irrc.

And I think Robb should've taken Grey Wolf with him to Walder Heffner's party but this is all the benifit of hindsight.

Mormont, unlike Custer, wasn't looking for glory and a swift victory. His main mission was to assert Ranger power beyond the Wall, which was waning for years. What he did was a forced reconnoitre. Looking to see what the enemy was doing with a sizable force. This was an age before airpower and satilites, he had no other way of finding out real troop numbers and dispositions other then espionage which can be fairly unreliable.

His other objective was finding out what happened to uncle Ben and his men (other then the two zombies who tried to kill him).

In the end the NW position at the FoFM wasn't pwned by Mance and his merry Wildlings but by the Others and their zombie pets. He knew trouble was brewing but he didn't know the scale of the Others threat. Only the Wildlings and Giants knew (and the CotF plus Brynden Rivers) but they weren't talking to him.

[ab aeterno]

And I think Robb should've taken Grey Wolf with him to Walder Heffner's party but this is all the benifit of hindsight.

Mormont, unlike Custer, wasn't looking for glory and a swift victory. His main mission was to assert Ranger power beyond the Wall, which was waning for years. What he did was a forced reconnoitre. Looking to see what the enemy was doing with a sizable force. This was an age before airpower and satilites, he had no other way of finding out real troop numbers and dispositions other then espionage which can be fairly unreliable.

His other objective was finding out what happened to uncle Ben and his men (other then the two zombies who tried to kill him).

In the end the NW position at the FoFM wasn't pwned by Mance and his merry Wildlings but by the Others and their zombie pets. He knew trouble was brewing but he didn't know the scale of the Others threat. Only the Wildlings and Giants knew (and the CotF plus Brynden Rivers) but they weren't talking to him.

To be fair though, didn't Qhorin tell him more or less how many Wildlings there were after interrogating the wildling prisoner?

And also, though you are right that the NW's position wasn't compromised by the Wildlings but by the others, would the NW really have been able to hold off the Wildlings had they marched on the Fist? The men of the NW seem to be armed mostly with swords or axes, not spears and shields, they're not hoplites, I would imagine them finding it very difficult to hold of the Wildling horde even with the high ground and some fortifications, now that Mance had given them decent leadership/

[Scipio Africanus]

To be fair though, didn't Qhorin tell him more or less how many Wildlings there were after interrogating the wildling prisoner?

And also, though you are right that the NW's position wasn't compromised by the Wildlings but by the others, would the NW really have been able to hold off the Wildlings had they marched on the Fist? The men of the NW seem to be armed mostly with swords or axes, not spears and shields, they're not hoplites, I would imagine them finding it very difficult to hold of the Wildling horde even with the high ground and some fortifications, now that Mance had given them decent leadership/

We as reader have the benifit of knowing the Others threat is real and that the Wildings and Giants were desperate enough to ally and force their way south to the Wall.

However if you look from the perspective of the Old Bear, how could he know that all the Wildlings really allied and were massing in large numbers? They had never done so before. The Others weren't heard from since thousends of years other then in fairy tales.

I'm not saying Mormont was a tactical genius here but he operated from experience and from his knowledge base. He probably didn't think that so many Wildlings would actually ally. In fact they were all surprised how many empty villages they encountered on the way to the FoFM.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

To be fair though, didn't Qhorin tell him more or less how many Wildlings there were after interrogating the wildling prisoner?

And also, though you are right that the NW's position wasn't compromised by the Wildlings but by the others, would the NW really have been able to hold off the Wildlings had they marched on the Fist? The men of the NW seem to be armed mostly with swords or axes, not spears and shields, they're not hoplites, I would imagine them finding it very difficult to hold of the Wildling horde even with the high ground and some fortifications, now that Mance had given them decent leadership/

Stannis kicked Mance's ass with 1,000 men in a pitched battle. Mormont had 300 and would have used hit&run tactics. Risky, but definitely doable, even if his mens quality was worse than Stannis'.

[ab aeterno]

We as reader have the benifit of knowing the Others threat is real and that the Wildings and Giants were desperate enough to ally and force their way south to the Wall.

However if you look from the perspective of the Old Bear, how could he know that all the Wildlings really allied and were massing in large numbers? They had never done so before. The Others weren't heard from since thousends of years other then in fairy tales.

I'm not saying Mormont was a tactical genius here but he operated from experience and from his knowledge base. He probably didn't think that so many Wildlings would actually ally. In fact they were all surprised how many empty villages they encountered on the way to the FoFM.

That was what I thought at first, though it has been suggested earlier in the thread that the Wildlings had united before. Though Qhorin and Mormont obviously believe what they are told sufficiently to send their scouting parties to find out what Mance is looking for.

[ab aeterno]

Stannis kicked Mance's ass with 1,000 men in a pitched battle. Mormont had 300 and would have used hit&run tactics. Risky, but definitely doable, even if his mens quality was worse than Stannis'.

Mance had fewer men by this point though, and they were under the impression that there was a de facto truce. Stannis took them by surprise with a cavalry charge whereas Mormont wouldn't have had the element of surprise of the advantage offered by Stannis' knights. He also suffers from not knowing the area as well as the Wildlings making hit and run tactics difficult to execute successfull, IMO.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Mance had fewer men by this point though, and they were under the impression that there was a de facto truce. Stannis took them by surprise with a cavalry charge whereas Mormont wouldn't have had the element of surprise of the advantage offered by Stannis' knights. He also suffers from not knowing the area as well as the Wildlings making hit and run tactics difficult to execute successfull, IMO.

Scarce fewer men and a secured camp instead of a strung out column of civilians on the march, a formation as vulnerable as can be. And the experienced rangers Mormont hat knew the area as well as any Wildling.

[ab aeterno]

Scarce fewer men and a secured camp instead of a strung out column of civilians on the march, a formation as vulnerable as can be. And the experienced rangers Mormont hat knew the area as well as any Wildling.

Well, personally I disagree. I think that any way you slice it, they're so massively outnumbered that I wouldn't give them more than a puncher's chance. They would need to break the Wildlings in the first sortie IMO or they're looking at being surrounded and wiped out. That is, if none of the NW try to flee themselves...

They do have a chance, but to be honest, I can't see any way in which they wouldn't be better off, even going off what they know, falling back to the Wall. At the Fist the best they can realistically hope for is a Pyrrhic victory.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Well, personally I disagree. I think that any way you slice it, they're so massively outnumbered that I wouldn't give them more than a puncher's chance. They would need to break the Wildlings in the first sortie IMO or they're looking at being surrounded and wiped out. That is, if none of the NW try to flee themselves...

They do have a chance, but to be honest, I can't see any way in which they wouldn't be better off, even going off what they know, falling back to the Wall.

Yes, it's risky, but defending the Wall would be imho even riskier. The Watch lacked the strength to man 100 leagues, Mance could have brought thousands across the Wall and attack the ~300 men in each (undefendable) castle piecemeal. Two bad choices, Mormont had to pick one.

[ab aeterno]

Yes, it's risky, but defending the Wall would be imho even riskier. The Watch lacked the strength to man 100 leagues, Mance could have brought thousands across the Wall and attack the ~300 men in each (undefendable) castle piecemeal. Two bad choices, Mormont had to pick one.

Oh, I agree, defending the Wall would be risky too, especially as the Wildlings could climb it, but Mormont splits his forces, he has one group with him and the rest at the Wall. I wonder if he could have used scouts to report on where the Wildlings were approaching and try to move men to the areas likeliest to be attacked. Not a good proposition either way without mounted cavalry though. His biggest issue IMO is that if he loses at the First then his forces get wiped out in all likelihood.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Oh, I agree, defending the Wall would be risky too, especially as the Wildlings could climb it, but Mormont splits his forces, he has one group with him and the rest at the Wall. I wonder if he could have used scouts to report on where the Wildlings were approaching and try to move men to the areas likeliest to be attacked. Not a good proposition either way without mounted cavalry though. His biggest issue IMO is that if he loses at the First then his forces get wiped out in all likelihood.

Scouts would be no use as soon as Mance was before the gates. And losing at the Fist could still be enough to shatter Mance's coalition if it was a pyrrhic victory - something very likely. Furthermore, he intended to hit Mance's civilians on the march. Something very, very effective to shatter morale.