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Littlefinger knew of Aegon all along?


Lion of Judah

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I never lost sight of that trust me. :)

But I don't think the Tyrells #winning is his dream scenario. It's just his backup plan should the Lannisters fall. LF hinting of the war between 3 queens tells me he's likely looking ahead...

As for Varys, Stan would never trust Lord Eunuch and the latter knew it. Again, Varys would be lucky to leave KL with his head on his body. Besides, despite that Stan wouldn't exactly have been a source of inspiration as king, he would've still commanded more authority than anything the Lannister cared to serve up for the throne, making a Dothraki invasion much more difficult to realize.

Didn't Stannis say something about advising Robert to execute Varys?
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Whatever Aegon is (be he real, fake and/or a Blackfyre), I think it's safe to say at this point that he is Varys's endgame: Varys is undoubtedly ruthless, but if he believes that Aegon sitting the Iron Throne is ultimately 'for the good of the realm' in the long run, then I don't see any reason not to think he actually believes that. People sometimes forget that for all the lies characters tell each other in this series, they also lie to themselves - Varys is no exception. Whether he's a Targaryen/Blackfyre supporter or whether he simply wants a puppet on the Iron Throne that he and Illyrio have prepared for a long time, Varys has put way too much work into Aegon for him to be anything less than his true goal.

If true, then I doubt anyone in Westeros knows about Aegon. Varys is rather good at keeping secrets and there's no way he would let one this massive slip, especially not to Littlefinger. Danaerys is another question entirely: if the Small Council has heard about Dany's exploits in the east, then you can bet Littlefinger has as well.

I agree with Apple Martini that the key is that Littlefinger adapts, regardless of who's in power. But in order to adapt, he also needs to know how the winds are blowing and adjust his plans accordingly. Considering how certain he was of Cersei's rule imploding, he must've already been preparing to work his way up the ladder with the next ruler, which is probably where his 'War of the Three Queens'-comment comes in. If those tapestries he mentioned have anything to do with Targaryens as some have speculated, it could be his first step in a plot to declare for Danaerys, should she arrive in Westeros and prove succesful.

If true, then Littlefinger has actually covered all his bases, for each of the Three Queens, perfectly:

- Should Cersei and the Lannisters somehow prevail after all, then there's still no harm done for him: he still served their regime loyally and secured the Lannister/Tyrell alliance and the Vale. To keep Sansa safe, all he would need to do is continue to pass her off as Alayne.

- Should Margaery and the Tyrells oust the Lannisters as the new royal family, then there's no harm done for him either: he's a useful ally and they can't afford to screw over Littlefinger without risking him spilling the beans on Joffrey's death. He knows the truth, but the blame for Joffrey's death will still fall on the Tyrells, as Littlefinger only leaked rumours about Joffrey's behaviour; it were the Tyrells who ultimately killed him.

- Should Danaerys return and appear to be succesful in her attempt to conquer Westeros, he can have the (fresh) forces of the Vale declare for her and swing the balance of power in her favour. He was not involved in Robert's Rebellion, but can take credit for helping kill Joffrey and undermining the 'Usurper's' regime by causing the chaos that she's taking advantage of.

Either way, Littlefinger wins.

Aegon might be the one thing that will throw Littlefinger off-balance, because he wasn't the dragon he was expecting to arrive. Depending on Aegon's success, Littlefinger will try to throw his lot in with him instead and may even attempt to marry Sansa off to him - but this rapid adjustment to his plans might be his undoing. Regardless of what happens in the Vale, if Littlefinger sides with Aegon, he risks alienating Danaerys. If Dany wins the second Dance of the Dragons, Littlefinger could be thoroughly fucked.

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Aegon might be the one thing that will throw Littlefinger off-balance, because he wasn't the dragon he was expecting to arrive. Depending on Aegon's success, Littlefinger will try to throw his lot in with him instead and may even attempt to marry Sansa off to him - but this rapid adjustment to his plans might be his undoing. Regardless of what happens in the Vale, if Littlefinger sides with Aegon, he risks alienating Danaerys. If Dany wins the second Dance of the Dragons, Littlefinger could be thoroughly fucked.

Even then, he could still claim he was misled about Aegon's real identity and he would never have sided with him if he knew the truth. As long as he sees Dany's victory coming before the very moment she brings her dragons and/or forces to the Vale, he could potentially pull that off (with Tyrion possibly representing a problem then, though).

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Where is everyone getting the idea that there will be some massive conflict between Aegon and Dany?

I think no matter what happens, Littlefinger will manipulate himself into a good position. The only thing I could possibly see "throwing Littlefinger off balance" is if Varys or Tyrion explicitly advise Dany or Aegon to get rid of him. Only Varys and Tyrion know how truly dangerous he is. But even then....I'm rooting for LF and think he'd find a way out of danger somehow.

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Where is everyone getting the idea that there will be some massive conflict between Aegon and Dany?

I think no matter what happens, Littlefinger will manipulate himself into a good position. The only thing I could possibly see "throwing Littlefinger off balance" is if Varys or Tyrion explicitly advise Dany or Aegon to get rid of him. Only Varys and Tyrion know how truly dangerous he is. But even then....I'm rooting for LF and think he'd find a way out of danger somehow.

Two words: "mummer's dragon". Dany will believe fAegon is an impostor (and rightfully so).

As for Pissant Baelish: I think his undoing will be Sansa and her amethyst hairnet. But that's just a hunch of mine.

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