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Wouter

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  1. Littlefinger and Ramsay hardly came out on top in the show, did they? And nor would they come out on top in the books, in the very unlikely event those ever get finished. Ramsay is already faltering by the end of AFFC. And that Sansa will eventually turn on Littlefinger, getting him killed in the process, has been quite clear in the books, too. One thing that looks bad though, is Dany's apparent turn to villainy by the end. Though the why's and how's would likely be different in the books (which had Dany go full psychopath), I doubt D&D came up with Jon killing Dany by themselves. That's not a very nice ending. In that sense, maybe ASOIAF is a bit nihilistic, or would be. OTOH, looks like the Starks come back out on top in the end, certainly not the Boltons.
  2. I doubt the Westerosi know anything about genetics, other than some maesters perhaps, and ASOIAF seems to have fantasy genetics anyway. Tywin's main intention was to get Tyrion out of his hair - getting him to give up on Casterly Rock (by dangling the prospect of Winterfell before Tyrion's nose) was probably the real reason. It's a win-win for Tywin: he stops a Stark-Tyrell alliance by prohibiting the Sansa-Willas marriage, he solves the problem of Tyrion wanting to be his heir in actual fact (and if Tyrion would get killed in a hostile north, then so much the better as Tywin's hands would be clean) and if Tyrion actually manages to get Winterfell under control, he now has a Lannister ally in the north. Whether Tywin was planning on Tyrion or Roose Bolton to come out on top in the north is unknown. He was more than capable of throwing either under the proverbial bus, as long as Stannis didn't succeed in gaining the north. If he did hope Tyrion would actually succeed, he may have been counting on Lannister' riches (or at least the control of Westerosi resources by Lannisters) to buy the allegiance of northmen (in the form of food to survive winter, for example) or that so many northmen would die (in winter and in armed conflict) that resistance would be minimal.
  3. That's bang-on, as others also have pointed out. Support of the Lannisters vs the wrath of the Lannisters - important for the watch. Normally they would choose commanders approved by the Starks, as their primary patrons. But the Starks have lost power, and Tywin is still there (as far as they knew). I think that the later attack on Jon was also chiefly motivated by a desire to be in Bolton's good graces, as the officers of the Watch understand who's the boss in the north (at that time).
  4. Multiple reasons, probably. Going along with Tywin (road of least resistance, at least initially). Getting a shot at Winterfell and the lands that go with it. Getting a wife who is a match, as far as social standing goes (son of Tywin * daughter of Eddard). I have no issue with Sansa not kneeling. It's the fault of Tywin and Cersei, who allowed Sansa a little rebellion that hurts their family by allowing a captive to humiliate their son/brother in an act of defiance. Tyrion going along with the stealth marriage (and thus not telling Sansa) was not a friendly act, either.
  5. I tend to feel more sorry for Sansa, because for het it was entirely unvoluntary and she was taken unaware, as well. Tyrion was pressured by Tywin, but a part of him was looking at the (potential) upsides for him, like getting lands. He could have chosen to say no (admittedly not easy, saying no to Tywin, but he did give him a potential out with Lancel as an alternative option) or he at least have warned Sansa beforehand. At the very moment of the wedding, Tyrion acted as a Lannister and thus as an enemy of Sansa.
  6. What struck me in this chapter is this passage: “Why should I want to hold them?” His brother’s smiling eye glittered in the lantern light, blue and bold and full of malice. “The Shields have served my purpose. I took them with one hand, and gave them away with the other. A great king is open-­handed, brother. It is up to the new lords to hold them now. The glory of winning those rocks will be mine forever. When they are lost, the defeat will belong to the four fools who so eagerly accepted my gifts.” Euron is expecting the Shields to be lost, and he doesn't care. Combined with this part of one of Aeron's visions: "He saw the longships of the Ironborn adrift and burning on a boiling blood­-red sea " , I don't revise my opinion that the Ironborn will rue the day they raised Euron. It does look like he will defeat or cripple the Redwyne fleet with magic, but his actual goal remains Dany and that means he has to go after her sooner or later. And since he seems to be a match for Red Priests, I fear for Moqorro and Victarion, in that case. Theon may well came into play later, after the Shields and the rest have been lost again and the longships are burned or adrift. Otherwise the chapter isn't that shocking. Euron's game plan has been suspected for quite some time.
  7. Interesting speculation. AFAIK the idea of Lancel securing Sansa out of Shadrichs hands hasn't been suggested yet. It would provide a way to get Sansa to KL without Cersei having her killed right away. Sansa's storyline remains difficult to predict, many options are still open.
  8. To make it difficult for her (an uprising that fails, for example)? To persuade her to vacate the throne voluntarily, at some point? Or maybe it won't matter too much once she plays her role in defeating the Others, and solving the upcoming food crisis. It's a rather big leap that Dany has to lose KL in the same way Rhaenyra lost it, just because it looks she will be unpopular. It's a possible outcome, but not a certainty.
  9. Bolton and Stannis are in the north, while Rickon may also reappear there during TWOW. The armies of the Vale, unlike in the show, are very unlikely to leave the Vale anytime soon due to the snow making the passes out of the Vale unpenetrable (and the Vale seems to lack a large fleet to move its armies in other ways). Sansa also wouldn't get full support of the Vale unless she is able to marry Harry (or alternatively, Sweetrobin) and given that her marriage to Tyrion hasn't been dissolved yet, this is problematic, too. I think Sansa will stay in the Vale till this region also gets swept up in the coming "Dance of Dragons".
  10. Chrisdaw, the part of your predictions where you assume that Dany will get booted out of KL after she defeats Aegon, with Cersei somehow coming back, is the one where I have difficulties. Sure, there are indications that Dany will not be popular but she will likely have loyal followers like the core Unsullied. I don't see her getting Rhaenyra'ed out of KL; if she takes the throne I guess no one will take it by force from her afterwards; at most she may decide to step aside (for Jon, say).
  11. Did GRRM really set out the annulment procedure in the books? IIRC it was stated that only the High Septon could overturn it (with no exact procedure mentioned?), which he later expanded a bit upon in an SSM (outside the books!). The problem with the present High Septon is that he is a loose cannon and it would be an enormous risk for Sansa to reveal her location or come to ask in person. And future High Septons (or the present one, if he gets "tamed") would likely have to do Dany's bidding to survive - I assume she will take the power in KL, sooner or later (though probably after a brief stint by Aegon in charge). So, IMO things fall back on the marriage politics Dany will follow. Marriages of daughters or lord paramounts and of a dragonrider and advisor of her own (I'm assuming this, too) will be her business, as this is a political act in Westeros. If she does not want the marriage to continue, it won't. If she does want it to continue, it probably will. This goes doubly so if Tyrion would be Aerys' bastard (or would be believed to be by Dany): then it becomes a matter of survival for the Targaryen family, Tyrion could potentially be her heir then. In the show, Sansa and Tyrion had a significantly better relationship though (even during the marriage, Tyrion could make her laugh; he also courteously warned her beforehand of his father's orders, and on the show it was an order, not a strong suggestion). Moreover, being married to Tyrion was a dream compared to her present marriage, which makes Tyrion look better in retrospect. There is also a side effect of the marriage to Ramsay: no longer a virgin, Sansa can't prove anymore that the marriage with Tyrion was not consummated. And it was set aside by LF and Boltons, but that doesn't mean others would agree that this was done lawfully (given the ceremony was done only for Old Gods, I doubt the High Septon would agree and Tyrion may not agree either). If LF's position gets challenged in the show, Sansa may have a hard time defending the POV that non-consummated means non-existant.
  12. People tend to view the potential continuation of the Tyrion/Sansa marriage in black or white terms: either both would be as miserable as they were during the brief time they were married in KL, or they would suddenly come to marry for love. There are other possibilities, though. I'm thinking more in the line of a classic Westerosi arranged marriage; both families (Dany for Tyrion and Jon or Bran for Sansa, IMO - though Sansa could negotiate for herself, much like Dany did with Hizdahr) come to some sort of agreement that it would be in their interests for the marriage to continue. This would be different from the actual marriage because that was an entirely one-way arrangement where the Lannisters forced Sansa to marry without even informing her or her family beforehand, with the whole thing designed to be a Lannister powergrab in Winterfell. Presumably, an arranged marriage would have benefits of some form for the Starks/the north (or Riverlands and Vale, even) as well. I also think that Sansa would have acted differently in KL if she didn't have Dontos' escape plan. She could afford to keep Tyrion at a safe distance because it was only for a few weeks. If she had seen no escape, I suspect she would have seriously considered to either kill herself or to make an attempt to make the best of it while influencing Tyrion as much as she could to go against his own family. As for Tyrion raping Sansa; if the marriage is renewed/confirmed, presumably it would not be to go back to the farce that it was in the first place; it seems unlikely to me that Tyrion would accept a continued marriage without sex, better to annul the whole thing then. If Tyrion can get sex the normal way, it would seem unlikely that he would jeopardise that with rape (even in the sense of Robert raping Cersei). As you say, we don't know what the author will write. That goes for Tyrion's future state of mind as well. I do note that the show has been whitewashing him though - one effect of which is that his relationship with Sansa is quite a bit better on the show - and one possible reason for that is to not upset the TV audience if he would end up triumphant in the end. I also note that the author has some pretty f*cked up marriages turn into relative successes: Dany and Drogo is an example from the books (considering it started with him buying and then raping Dany) and from the world book, the marriage between Orys Baratheon and the daughter of the last Storm King was striking. The last one started the Baratheon line as we know it in ASOIAF; I wonder how Argella felt about being married to the man who succesfully invaded her lands, who killed her father and who took her captive. Allthough the Dany/Hizdahr marriage was not succesfull in the end, it is a good example of an arranged marriage entered for mutual gain though Dany did not want to marry him (and probably vice-versa). It is a bit different though, because Dany negotiated for her own hand and she also had more power in the marriage than Hizdahr did. Both in show and books, Sansa has shown a willingness to enter in arranged marriages at the behest of LF. The chapter being discussed sees her playing alone with LF's scheme. So the concept of marriage for political gain is not lost on her. I agree with Colonel Green that book-Sansa will likely do her politicking in the Vale; it's the place where she's being "trained" (much like Bran and Arya at their respective places) and where she has her own supporting cast of characters. When Dany/Tyrion arrive in Westeros, things will be shaken up and who knows how things will progress. Well, Martin hopefully, and probably D&D and Cogman plus Hill, but not us. I think Sansa may go back to KL at some point (if it is still standing then), but by that time Cersei would probably have been long removed from power. Dany had a dream in ASOS that IMO indicates she will fight the Others, possibly as far south as the Trident: Though Dany is thinking about Robert, his host was obviously not armored in ice => this indicates Others. If Dany may possibly fight the Others in the Riverlands, then not everyone has to assemble in the north in order to impact that fight.
  13. That would only be possible if Sansa gets abducted from the Vale (by Shadrich?) or is delivered by Vale Lords, but both of those seem unlikely to me. It would be very hard to pull off an abduction (Shadrich on his own will not be able to call on many resources, and the passes out of the Vale are blocked) and few lords in the Vale would be willing to do Cersei a favour.
  14. What Chrisdaw or I want is not important; the question is what Martin wants to write. I consider it a possibility that the marriage is meant to become more than a farce in the end, the books have emphasized the finality and the difficulty in breaking it. I do think LF is "cursed", in books and show. And I doubt that any of the other engagements or marriages in books or show (Harry, Sweetrobin, Ramsay) will bear fruit. And as Chrisdaw wrote, a powerful Tyrion is likely to want a highborn wife. None of those will volunteer to marry him, but since he is already married, if he finds Sansa he just might want to keep her to her vows, even though he knows those were said against her will. As for the rape, there were no witnesses and Tyrion will presumably not brag about it in Dany's hearing, so while it infuences what we think about the character, it will likely not impact Tyrion unless he himself would feel remorse about it. It is interesting that the show has whitewashed Tyrion to some extent, both in his relationship to Sansa and in limiting his post-KL depression to drinking rather than the things he did in the books. That Tyrion will rise high in Dany's council has been theorised by fans since long before S5 of the show. The show accelerated things, but in the books this will probably happen by the end of TWOW or early in the book thereafter. Sansa in the north though, for the time being can be seen as merely the replacement of her book storyline in the Vale, which D&D weren't interested in filming. There is still room for deviation between show and book, and it remains to be seen if it will be a case of show-Sansa moving back south in S6 or S7 or book-Sansa moving north in TWOW or early in the book thereafter.
  15. That does seem likely. If Sansa is not marked as a target, I doubt she would get involved in a fight against him. She is neither a fighter nor a magician (unless her dormant warg powers would play a role) and she doesn't have a dragon or wildfire, nor does she have special insights into what Ungregor would be. If she is a target, Sandor and Jaime (with Brienne) would have a mutual reason to destroy Ungregor. I also don't see Sansa going to KL while Cersei still has some power there, unless she is taken by force. Considering the way they parted, I'd guess Tysha would want to kill him so the question would be moot. If she somehow would still want him, I don't know what would happen though he is so obsessed with her he just might stay with her. I wonder, what would Tyrion say to Tysha if his wish comes true and he finds her? Would he apologise, say he was lied to?
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