Jons Parentage Revealed

[Duncan the Lunk'n]

I do not particually like the thought of Rheagar and Lyanna fathering Jon Snow (I mainly don't like Rheagar), but I do find it likely, and if they did I wan't him to find out about it. And Howland Reed or someone like Brynden Rivers seem the most likely candidates for revealing it.

Having said that... I fail to see why it truly matters. As long as the Wall and the NIght's Watch still stands Jon Snow will remain loyal and will strive to protect the realm by standing with his black Brothers. He would probably be sorely tempted to take a true family name, raise a keep, get a familiy, but in the end he is his fathers (Eddard Stark's) son, and he values duty and honor highly, though he is far more pragmatic and more clever than Eddard ever was.

Also, Rhaegar may be his biological father, but there is nothing that suggest that Jon would be his son in name. Also, it's seems to me that many think Jon would become a different person if Rhaegar would be revealed as his father, but I fail to see what difference it makes.... Jon Snow is a Stark to the bone, and even if he was fathered by Rhaegar, the Stark part of his blood seem to have eradicated any trace of his Targaryen heritage (and I'm thankfull for that); He looks like a Stark, with his lean, strong body, long face, dark brown hair and grey eyes, and he has taken to their focus on honor, duty and northern tradition more than any of his Half-siblings/cousins. He's basically a young, pragmatic more talented Eddard, rather than a Lyanna or Rhaegar.

But Jon tried to leave the watch when after he heard Eddard was dead right? And he left them when Halfhand ordered him to, so i can over look that, then at the end of ASOIAFDWD when he got the letter from "ramsay bolton" saying stannis was defeated blah blah blah Jon was getting ready to leave and go save winterfell untill he gets stabbed...

[The Holy Goat]

But Jon tried to leave the watch when after he heard Eddard was dead right? And he left them when Halfhand ordered him to, so i can over look that, then at the end of ASOIAFDWD when he got the letter from "ramsay bolton" saying stannis was defeated blah blah blah Jon was getting ready to leave and go save winterfell untill he gets stabbed...

True, Jon did attempt to leave when he heard of Eddard's death and Robb's war efforts, but in the end he didn't. And he's stuck to that decision, and has now been part of the NIght's Watch for 3 years, give or take a few months. He even picked the Night's Watch over his love for Ygritte, despite the grief it caused him. And when Stannis Baratheon repeatedly offered to legalise him as Lord Jon Stark of Winterfell with Val as his wife he still remained amongst the Black Brothers, despite how much he wished to accept. He turned his back on his foremost dreams and wishes, despite being offered them on a plate. And his decision to march on Ramsay Bolton was motivated by his desire to protect the Night's Watch and the Wall, as well as the numerous individuals they harbored there (Selyse and Shireen Baratheon, the Little Monster, Val, Melisandre). Afterall, if he didn't take the initiative, Ramsay Bolton would've (or so he thought). So yes, he foreswore his oath at the end, but he did not do so because he suddenly felt that Stannis was in the right or because of some selfish desire to prove himself or win glory.

[Duncan the Lunk'n]

True, Jon did attempt to leave when he heard of Eddard's death and Robb's war efforts, but in the end he didn't. And he's stuck to that decision, and has now been part of the NIght's Watch for 3 years, give or take a few months. He even picked the Night's Watch over his love for Ygritte, despite the grief it caused him. And when Stannis Baratheon repeatedly offered to legalise him as Lord Jon Stark of Winterfell with Val as his wife he still remained amongst the Black Brothers, despite how much he wished to accept. He turned his back on his foremost dreams and wishes, despite being offered them on a plate. And his decision to march on Ramsay Bolton was motivated by his desire to protect the Night's Watch and the Wall, as well as the numerous individuals they harbored there (Selyse and Shireen Baratheon, the Little Monster, Val, Melisandre). Afterall, if he didn't take the initiative, Ramsay Bolton would've (or so he thought). So yes, he foreswore his oath at the end, but he did not do so because he suddenly felt that Stannis was in the right or because of some selfish desire to prove himself or win glory.

The Night's Watch raised nineteen castles to guard the hundred leagues of the Wall, although they have never manned more than seventeen at one time. Today only few of them are maintained by an ever dwindling force. The castles themselves are closer to garrisons, composed mostly of barracks, stables, storehouses, towers and out-buildings, as they have no walls of their own (other than the Wall itself). They were purposefully built this way so the Watch could man only the Wall itself and focus on threats from the north. The Night's Watch feared no attack from the south because of their vow not to take part in the wars of the Seven Kingdoms.\

If or when a Bolton attack on the wall happened then it should be dealt with then, not by a rouge Lord Commander (still one of my favorites, as well as one of the most conflicted characters IMO)

[The Holy Goat]

The Night's Watch raised nineteen castles to guard the hundred leagues of the Wall, although they have never manned more than seventeen at one time. Today only few of them are maintained by an ever dwindling force. The castles themselves are closer to garrisons, composed mostly of barracks, stables, storehouses, towers and out-buildings, as they have no walls of their own (other than the Wall itself). They were purposefully built this way so the Watch could man only the Wall itself and focus on threats from the north. The Night's Watch feared no attack from the south because of their vow not to take part in the wars of the Seven Kingdoms.\

If or when a Bolton attack on the wall happened then it should be dealt with then, not by a rouge Lord Commander (still one of my favorites, as well as one of the most conflicted characters IMO)

And you think waiting for Bolton to attack is a smarter decision than attempting to preemtively take them down? You did yourself point out that the Watch is scattered and that they have no adequate defenses towards the south. They would be slaughtered like poultry. And Jon knows that, not to mention that he is fully aware of Ramsay's monstrous reputation and what he could and probably do if he thought the Night's Watch was beeing uncooperative. The part in the letter where Ramsay (I'm actually sure the letter is from him, but that doesn't change what Jon believes) promises to eat Jon's heart speaks for itself.

Also, the Night's Watch cannot give up the people Ramsay wants, since they are forbidden from interfering with the Kingdoms politics. Giving Stannis and his troops leave to stay as guests in gratitude for saving the wall is one thing (especially since Stannis and his forces outnumbered the Watch). Giving said guest over to a rival faction in the war is another thing.

Afterall, what would be the most reasonable thing to do as Lord Commander of the Night's Watch?

Sit on your ass? Sit there and wait for Ramsay Bolton to come North and kill you, possibly slaughtering the Night's Watch simultaneously. Or foreswear his oaths and march south with the wildlings in an attempt to take down the Bastard of Bolton before he can trathen the Night's Watch and the Wall. Either way, the Night's Watch has not truly involved themselves in the war (though there are balancing on the precipice), only their rouge Lord Commander has, and he is still doing it for things other than spite, self-interest or ambition. Bowen Marsh and his mates obviously didn't see it that way though...

My point is: Jon has always chosen the continued survival of the Wall and the defense against the Others before anything else, and he is obviously not above bending of foregoing the rules of the Night's Watch to do so. So he could possibly step into the Kingdoms politics as a Lord, only he wouldn't do it simply because his blood gives him permission to, he would do it for far more altruistic motives.

[Duncan the Lunk'n]

And you think waiting for Bolton to attack is a smarter decision than attempting to preemtively take them down? You did yourself point out that the Watch is scattered and that they have no adequate defenses towards the south. They would be slaughtered like poultry. And Jon knows that, not to mention that he is fully aware of Ramsay's monstrous reputation and what he could and probably do if he thought the Night's Watch was beeing uncooperative. The part in the letter where Ramsay (I'm actually sure the letter is from him, but that doesn't change what Jon believes) promises to eat Jon's heart speaks for itself.

Also, the Night's Watch cannot give up the people Ramsay wants, since they are forbidden from interfering with the Kingdoms politics. Giving Stannis and his troops leave to stay as guests in gratitude for saving the wall is one thing (especially since Stannis and his forces outnumbered the Watch). Giving said guest over to a rival faction in the war is another thing.

Afterall, what would be the most reasonable thing to do as Lord Commander of the Night's Watch?

Sit on your ass? Sit there and wait for Ramsay Bolton to come North and kill you, possibly slaughtering the Night's Watch simultaneously. Or foreswear his oaths and march south with the wildlings in an attempt to take down the Bastard of Bolton before he can trathen the Night's Watch and the Wall. Either way, the Night's Watch has not truly involved themselves in the war (though there are balancing on the precipice), only their rouge Lord Commander has, and he is still doing it for things other than spite, self-interest or ambition. Bowen Marsh and his mates obviously didn't see it that way though...

My point is: Jon has always chosen the continued survival of the Wall and the defense against the Others before anything else, and he is obviously not above bending of foregoing the rules of the Night's Watch to do so. So he could possibly step into the Kingdoms politics as a Lord, only he wouldn't do it simply because his blood gives him permission to, he would do it for far more altruistic motives.

so custom and tradition is only important untill it's not? the watch needs to hold strong and wait for RELIABLE word that stannis was defeated and the Boltons are marching on the wall, before acting on anything

[micool]

I'm in the minority here but I still think Jon is Ned's bastard.

[The Holy Goat]

so custom and tradition is only important untill it's not? the watch needs to hold strong and wait for RELIABLE word that stannis was defeated and the Boltons are marching on the wall, before acting on anything

Many of the customs and traditions of the NIght's Watch are rubbish and Jon SNow knows this. It makes him unpopular with the likes of Bowen Marsh, but that doesn't stop him from making the responsible decision. And what is the garantee that they will ever recieve any reliable word about Stannis' defeat? That letter they got could possibly be the only think they ever got to go on. No, IMO there is far to much that could go wrong if they just sat on their asses and waited like fools.

[Duncan the Lunk'n]

Many of the customs and traditions of the NIght's Watch are rubbish and Jon SNow knows this. It makes him unpopular with the likes of Bowen Marsh, but that doesn't stop him from making the responsible decision. And what is the garantee that they will ever recieve any reliable word about Stannis' defeat? That letter they got could possibly be the only think they ever got to go on. No, IMO there is far to much that could go wrong if they just sat on their asses and waited like fools.

Not saying i think he is in the wrong, just saying it is not his best choice...then again he is his fathers son R+L=J

[Tini]

Not saying i think he is in the wrong, just saying it is not his best choice...then again he is his fathers son R+L=J

That works if Jon is Ned's bastard, too. Ned didn't always make the best decsisons, either. Even though Ned was better at speaking to simple folk (like the NW) than he was at playing the Game of Thrones.

[Ser Davos' finger bones]

My eyes are bleeding trying to read all 20 pages of this thread so forgive me if I repeat something that has already been said.

My ideas are based on R+L=J, but what I find more interesting than who will reveal Jon's parentage to him is why.

First the who: There are a number of characters who may already know or suspect or who would be capable of figuring out:

Howland Reed- because he was with Ned at the Tower of Joy.

Ashara Dayne- because Ned brought Ser Arthur's sword to her after leaving the ToJ.

Bran, Bloodraven, Meera and Jojen- because of the whole "greensight" thing.

Whoever else might have been around the ToJ at the time that Lyanna was there- Consider the logistics of birthing a child and then bringing that child nearly all the way across the realm. Is GRRM saying that there was no midwife at the ToJ? No servants? And Ned probably didn't just bring a wet nurse with him to the ToJ on a whim. He would have had to find one relatively quickly afterward, so Wylla then, or whoever might have nursed Jon in the meantime.

Members of the Kingsguard- With a relationship as high profile as Rhaegar's and Lyanna's none of the surviving Kingsguard or the nobles or anyone else think to ask how specifically Lyanna died. Of course they really might not have, assuming that everyone believed the same thing that Robert did: that Rhaeger abducted, raped and either killed Lyanna or drove her to suicide then. Still, I think that Barristan Selmy at least might have an inkling. And Jaime may have been young at the time but he's clever. I think that he or Tyrion, who spent some time with Jon at the Wall and who is now in close proximity to Ser Barristan, would be capable of figuring it out.

So why has no one spoken out about his parentage?

It seems probable that Ned either planned never to reveal Jon's mother's identity or that he at least wanted to wait until much later. The reason for his secrecy being that, child of Lyanna's or no, Robert would have killed Jon. (On a side note I think that Lyanna's remains were returned to Winterfell at her own request. She would have wanted to be near her son. There also may be some clue to Jon's parentage buried in her crypt but that's another matter.)

I think Howland Reed kept his silence for the same reason, as did anyone else who was loyal to Ned and knew about Jon's parentage (Wylla, perhaps). As to anyone outside of Ned's influence who might have put R and L together and come up with J, there was probably no advantage in their revealing Jon's parentage. Jon was in the north. He's probably going to stay there. He thinks he's Ned's son. Enough children had been killed during Robert's rebellion. Let sleeping wolves lie. Then Jon joined the NW in the first book and made his parentage all but irrelevant. And when Robert died without a legitimate heir I think that everyone who might have known about Jon was already backing one horse or another (Renly, Stannis, Daenerys, Aegon). And with so much chaos in the realm the last thing anybody would want is another Targaryen popping up to try and claim the iron throne.

If R+L=J and the reveal is upcoming, which I tend to think it is despite Jon's recent ventilation courtesy Bowen Marsh & co. then what will be the motivation for it? I spent the first four books waiting for Howland Reed to pop up out of a stump like the Lorax and proclaim it for all the world to hear. I'm pretty sure he's not going to show up. Or he's already shown up, just under a different name. Or he's going to show up and... say nothing. I also doubt that some character will spill the beans over drinks or have a sudden and burning desire to tell the truth. I even doubt that it will come from Bran since he knows that Jon loved Ned and it isn't going to make Jon feel great that the man he knew and loved as a father lied to him all his life. The only reason that I see Bran telling Jon is if the truth might help him in some way, as in his Targ blood will help him defeat the Others.

I think that there has to be some motivation for a character or characters to seek out another Targaryen. Maybe they will be looking for the third head of the dragon? Or it would be interesting if Dany finds herself in need of a warg to help control her dragons. It might lead her to the north. Still, that wouldn't explain why she might seek Jon out individually unless someone close to her reveals to her that Jon is another Targaryen, in which case she might go there looking for an alliance or looking to eliminate a possible threat (as many people have stated, Jon is likely to be legitimate since the Targs have historically been polygamists and that the ToJ was guarded by the Kingsguard)

Of course there is always the possibility that Jon figures it out himself through some dream or evidence left behind in the north. If this happens I tend to think it might occur at roughly the same time that another character or characters realize it.

I think it would be very interesting (and likely) for Tyrion to make the connection. He prides himself on his intellect. He reads a lot. He said in GoT that he liked to read about dragons. He's probably read about wargs. Having spent time in the north he's been close to Jon (they even name each other "friend", how about that?) and now he is likely to be close to Dany and Ser Barristan soon.

I suppose something might happen to Aegon and that might leave Jon Connington looking for another Targ. I would have to re-read Dance to make more of an case for him being behind the reveal.

I suppose Melisandre could be behind the reveal with her flame gazing, but she's not looking for a Targ, and that would be let-down.

That's really all I have for the moment but like I said, I'm very interested to learn the "why" of it all, rather then the "who" or "how".

[Red Raven]

Rhaegal flies up and licks Jon's face.

[LordStoneheart]

Rhaegal flies up and licks Jon's face.

As a hatchling, cute. As a giant winged bringer of death... a little scary.

[qixoticneurotic]

My eyes are bleeding trying to read all 20 pages of this thread so forgive me if I repeat something that has already been said.

My ideas are based on R+L=J, but what I find more interesting than who will reveal Jon's parentage to him is why.

First the who: There are a number of characters who may already know or suspect or who would be capable of figuring out:

Howland Reed- because he was with Ned at the Tower of Joy.

Ashara Dayne- because Ned brought Ser Arthur's sword to her after leaving the ToJ.

Bran, Bloodraven, Meera and Jojen- because of the whole "greensight" thing.

Whoever else might have been around the ToJ at the time that Lyanna was there- Consider the logistics of birthing a child and then bringing that child nearly all the way across the realm. Is GRRM saying that there was no midwife at the ToJ? No servants? And Ned probably didn't just bring a wet nurse with him to the ToJ on a whim. He would have had to find one relatively quickly afterward, so Wylla then, or whoever might have nursed Jon in the meantime.

Members of the Kingsguard- With a relationship as high profile as Rhaegar's and Lyanna's none of the surviving Kingsguard or the nobles or anyone else think to ask how specifically Lyanna died. Of course they really might not have, assuming that everyone believed the same thing that Robert did: that Rhaeger abducted, raped and either killed Lyanna or drove her to suicide then. Still, I think that Barristan Selmy at least might have an inkling. And Jaime may have been young at the time but he's clever. I think that he or Tyrion, who spent some time with Jon at the Wall and who is now in close proximity to Ser Barristan, would be capable of figuring it out.

So why has no one spoken out about his parentage?

It seems probable that Ned either planned never to reveal Jon's mother's identity or that he at least wanted to wait until much later. The reason for his secrecy being that, child of Lyanna's or no, Robert would have killed Jon. (On a side note I think that Lyanna's remains were returned to Winterfell at her own request. She would have wanted to be near her son. There also may be some clue to Jon's parentage buried in her crypt but that's another matter.)

I think Howland Reed kept his silence for the same reason, as did anyone else who was loyal to Ned and knew about Jon's parentage (Wylla, perhaps). As to anyone outside of Ned's influence who might have put R and L together and come up with J, there was probably no advantage in their revealing Jon's parentage. Jon was in the north. He's probably going to stay there. He thinks he's Ned's son. Enough children had been killed during Robert's rebellion. Let sleeping wolves lie. Then Jon joined the NW in the first book and made his parentage all but irrelevant. And when Robert died without a legitimate heir I think that everyone who might have known about Jon was already backing one horse or another (Renly, Stannis, Daenerys, Aegon). And with so much chaos in the realm the last thing anybody would want is another Targaryen popping up to try and claim the iron throne.

If R+L=J and the reveal is upcoming, which I tend to think it is despite Jon's recent ventilation courtesy Bowen Marsh & co. then what will be the motivation for it? I spent the first four books waiting for Howland Reed to pop up out of a stump like the Lorax and proclaim it for all the world to hear. I'm pretty sure he's not going to show up. Or he's already shown up, just under a different name. Or he's going to show up and... say nothing. I also doubt that some character will spill the beans over drinks or have a sudden and burning desire to tell the truth. I even doubt that it will come from Bran since he knows that Jon loved Ned and it isn't going to make Jon feel great that the man he knew and loved as a father lied to him all his life. The only reason that I see Bran telling Jon is if the truth might help him in some way, as in his Targ blood will help him defeat the Others.

I think that there has to be some motivation for a character or characters to seek out another Targaryen. Maybe they will be looking for the third head of the dragon? Or it would be interesting if Dany finds herself in need of a warg to help control her dragons. It might lead her to the north. Still, that wouldn't explain why she might seek Jon out individually unless someone close to her reveals to her that Jon is another Targaryen, in which case she might go there looking for an alliance or looking to eliminate a possible threat (as many people have stated, Jon is likely to be legitimate since the Targs have historically been polygamists and that the ToJ was guarded by the Kingsguard)

Of course there is always the possibility that Jon figures it out himself through some dream or evidence left behind in the north. If this happens I tend to think it might occur at roughly the same time that another character or characters realize it.

I think it would be very interesting (and likely) for Tyrion to make the connection. He prides himself on his intellect. He reads a lot. He said in GoT that he liked to read about dragons. He's probably read about wargs. Having spent time in the north he's been close to Jon (they even name each other "friend", how about that?) and now he is likely to be close to Dany and Ser Barristan soon.

I suppose something might happen to Aegon and that might leave Jon Connington looking for another Targ. I would have to re-read Dance to make more of an case for him being behind the reveal.

I suppose Melisandre could be behind the reveal with her flame gazing, but she's not looking for a Targ, and that would be let-down.

That's really all I have for the moment but like I said, I'm very interested to learn the "why" of it all, rather then the "who" or "how".

because it Kills ned stark, again. revealing jons parentage paints ned in a whole new light. instead of the honorable ned stark now we have ned the rotten lying s.o.b who stole a boys life and 7 kingdoms. Born the legitimate son of the prince and his lady wife he was abducted and passed off as a bastard. shamed and shunned by his wicked stepmother he did his best to live up to the honorable reputation of his uncle. he leaves everything behind taking an oath that would keep him from ever claiming his birthright. and ned lets him go. there the nature of the man reveals himself. he defends the weak and champions the downtrodden. after defeating a white walker he is prepared for a leadership role and is taken under the wing of a seasoned ranger in his first ranging. then after fearlessly defening the wall from the largest attack in years he is selected as lord commander. his reign is both forward thinking and fair. he is then murdered by close minded fools who put politics over the good of the realm and all humanity. on the wall a man gets what hes earned and jon has earned the truth. hes shown it in everything hes done and he should be remembered as what he was. the king the realm deserved who died defending it in a godforsaken place most people wouldn't send their worst enemy. he was born a king he lived as a king should and died at the hands of traitors. Take the black for king jon and let the liars be damned. true or false its a tale that would have many flocking north to take up the defense of the realm.

[Steve Moss II]

I'm not sure if this has any bearing, or if the actor playing Jon Snow let something slip, but at Comic-Con there is this quote "For Harington, he’d like Jon Snow to meet his inevitable demise in quieter fashion. “Sunday afternoon, peacefully,” he said, adding, “85-years-old, resting his head gently… on a big iron chair.”"

http://insidetv.ew.com/2013/07/19/comic-con-2013-brave-new-warriors/#more-139324

[the_one_who_was_promised]

Oooh, very interesting.

And there is foreshadowing that Jon might become King, implying that he will have a long reign, which ties in with the actor's comments (on this thread - one or two pages from the end I think):

Insightful, perhaps.

[DarkAnise]

As do I. I really think Howland Reed is dead or out of the picture, and not likely to come into the picture, and the same goes for all the others who could know the truth. I'm going to throw out a wild card here - I think someone among the Maesters knew what went down. And its in their archive or it was told to someone there, records from the Maester who delivered Lyanna's baby. And Samwell will find out about it as he trains with the Maesters and that will be the reveal. Wether or not Samwell tells anyone or we just find out along with him in his POV and it deadends is another matter. (Admittedly, I'm not steeped in the lore of Westros to the extent that a lot of people are and this theory may have giant holes I'm not aware of, but that's what makes sense to me. There has to be a reason for Samwell to be with the Maesters and his story line beyond sending off one fellow to Dany, and I think this is the reason).

I never thought of this but I love it! It would definately go along way towards proving Jon's legitimacy.

[Steve Moss II]

Proving Jon is the child of Rhaegar and Lyanna won't be hard. All it takes is someone like Howland Reed to spill the beans. While some might be dubious, it wouldn't be hard to backtrack the evidence, and some are sure to do so once the "theory" becomes public. The bodies of 3 KG and 5 Northern lords at the ToJ would be plenty of corroboration, as the KG would not have fought and died there unless on Aerys or Rheagar's orders. Ditto the 5 Northern lords (not mere knights) who fought on Ned's.

It's like algebra. Sometimes all one needs is a variable or two and then the unknown quantities answer themselves.

Proving Jon is legitimate might be a bit more difficult. In theory Ned could have buried proof with his men or the KG, but he strikes me as much more cautious. Proof, it exists, is at the most secure location he could think of, Winterfell's crypts.

But again, like algebra, if R+L=J becomes known, and then a Targaryen wedding cloak, dragon egg, Aerys/Rhaegar decree, etc... is found in Lyanna's tomb, then most would believe it. If nothing else, rival factions, such as Cersie, would probably be even more incentivized to remove Jon from the land of the living. And those efforts could [and perversely] lend further credence to the theory.

I'm not saying that R+L=J will ever become known, though there is plenty of foreshadowing (such as crows repeatedly squawking "Snow" "Jon Snow" and "King" in the same outbursts). But it is certainly possible it could become known.

[Beastman]

Too much attention is being placed on this topic. Most likely Jon's parentage won't be revealed until he is dead. Also if it does turn out to be L+R=J most people will be like….”I knew it”… thus making the story predictable. The amount of media attention this topic has received thus far, GRRM will change it just to be different at this point, since too many people will find his story predictable. If it had originally started with L+R=J trust me it has changed by now. I honestly believe that we can expect very little from Mr. Snow since he knows so little indeed!

[Sarah Lannistark]

Would you be assuming that Jon is in fact Rhaegar and Lyanna's child then? And that he will be one of the three heads of the dragon?

And with the vagueness of Quaithe's information to Dany so far do you think that she will just come out and say "Hey, that black haired man at the wall with the white wolf. He's actually your cousin. So don't kill him or anything."

That would be amazing.

[KingHodorTargaryen]

Too much attention is being placed on this topic. Most likely Jon's parentage won't be revealed until he is dead. Also if it does turn out to be L+R=J most people will be like….”I knew it”… thus making the story predictable. The amount of media attention this topic has received thus far, GRRM will change it just to be different at this point, since too many people will find his story predictable. If it had originally started with L+R=J trust me it has changed by now. I honestly believe that we can expect very little from Mr. Snow since he knows so little indeed!

Actually no. GRRM specifically stated he does not change his story based on forums and fan speculation. And even if we did know it was R+L=J its only people on the forums. Imagine the show viewers or people that don't look at this forum. They greatly outnumber forum readers.