Could Stannis have won on Blackwater Bay if Melisandre had been with him?

[Djinn]

She could have seen the aproach of the Lannister-Tyrell army, which would give Stannis time to mount a defense or retreat by ship. She could have predicted the wilfire/chain combo and so avoiding it. She could have shadowbaby Tywin or Tyrion. It's very difficult to know what could she do about because nobody know what can she do exactly. Moqorro seems to be able to precog accurately short term military gains, so it seems that longer and more generalistic precognitions give much more vague results. Merely switching the point of attack to KL would've have changed everything in that battle.

[Naathi Prince]

There's a lot Mel could have done to help Stannis. She seems to have near complete control over fire, which may have averted some of the wildfire crisis, not to mention she has some sort of warging abilities. Hell, she could have glamored Stannis's army and Navy to be so insurmountably large that the goldcloaks dropped their spears and ran from the very beginning. I half think GRRM didn't bring her to avoid "Red Witch doing huge magic during gigantic, epic battle"

[Stannis ftw]

I like Stannis, but I think the idea that he killed Renly because of a vision of Renly defeating him beneath the walls of Kings Landing wearing his green armor coming true with someone else wearing his green armor is absolutely spectacular. Well played, GRRM.

Y thats pretty, pretty good :-) But is it clear he killed Renly because of this vision? Or simply because they were head-butting "antlers locked" and one of the two had to step aside or die?

[Naathi Prince]

Y thats pretty, pretty good :-) But is it clear he killed Renly because of this vision? Or simply because they were head-butting "antlers locked" and one of the two had to step aside or die?

he could have taken KL and tried to hold it. If he already sat on the Iron Throne, he might have been able to have a better negotiation with Renly. Westeros appears to primarily practice whats known as male preference Cognatic primogeniture, meaning that sons are ahead of all their sisters, but sisters come before uncles and cousins. Stannis and Renly could have agreed to change over to semi-salic primogeniture, where the sons of Stannis would come before Renly, but not the daughters. Shireen only would inherit if when Stannis died, she had no brothers, no nephews, and no male cousins, and Renly had died before her. This deal would have made sense for Renly with his host approaching his notoriously stubborn brother holding the Red Keep with a strong host holding the city. 80,000 outside the city, with 20,000 inside the city, Naval Superiority to Stannis...Renly would have lost that battle.

[Pyrrhus of Epirus]

he could have taken KL and tried to hold it. If he already sat on the Iron Throne, he might have been able to have a better negotiation with Renly. Westeros appears to primarily practice whats known as male preference Cognatic primogeniture, meaning that sons are ahead of all their sisters, but sisters come before uncles and cousins. Stannis and Renly could have agreed to change over to semi-salic primogeniture, where the sons of Stannis would come before Renly, but not the daughters. Shireen only would inherit if when Stannis died, she had no brothers, no nephews, and no male cousins, and Renly had died before her. This deal would have made sense for Renly with his host approaching his notoriously stubborn brother holding the Red Keep with a strong host holding the city. 80,000 outside the city, with 20,000 inside the city, Naval Superiority to Stannis...Renly would have lost that battle.

Stannis simply did not have enough men to take King's Landing, he had four thousand men to his name, many of them sellswords. Even if he threw away most of his army and somehow managed to take King's Landing, Renly's host of a hundred thousand would sweep through whatever meager remnants of Stannis' army remained.

[Naathi Prince]

Not really, Stannis had more than four thousand men at the time, for a start, and KL was completely unprepared for any kind of an assault. Without the timely arrival of Tyrion Lannister, the city would have fallen. Sallador Saan believed this, Tyrion believed this, Stannis believed it. With the city taken, Stannis would have mobilized the city, whether it was willing or not, in time to face Renly.

[Naathi Prince]

Not to mention, sacking KL means more loot to buy sellsword companies with.

[Pyrrhus of Epirus]

Not really, Stannis had more than four thousand men at the time, for a start, and KL was completely unprepared for any kind of an assault. Without the timely arrival of Tyrion Lannister, the city would have fallen. Sallador Saan believed this, Tyrion believed this, Stannis believed it. With the city taken, Stannis would have mobilized the city, whether it was willing or not, in time to face Renly.

I'm pretty sure he had around four thousand men, maybe a bit more but not nearly enough to take the city. He needed the twenty thousand men Renly stole from him, that was why he was able to take King's Landing after Renly had been dealt with.

[Naathi Prince]

I'm pretty sure he had around four thousand men, maybe a bit more but not nearly enough to take the city. He needed the twenty thousand men Renly stole from him, that was why he was able to take King's Landing after Renly had been dealt with.

Stannis brought 5,000 to Storm's End, but I doubt that is anywhere close to his full strength, as he needed to keep Dragonstone in any case. If he was sailing to take KL, he'd bring his full force. I also would assume that he would force the surrendered forces at KL to fight on his behalf, with his men behind them to cut them down if they run, as well as a militia of residents. Also, the Naval superiority and additional sellswords he'd be able to hire, levies from lords he'd be able to buy, etc. He followed Melisandre's lead when he went after Renly first.

[Stannis ftw]

Not really, Stannis had more than four thousand men at the time, for a start, and KL was completely unprepared for any kind of an assault. Without the timely arrival of Tyrion Lannister, the city would have fallen. Sallador Saan believed this, Tyrion believed this, Stannis believed it. With the city taken, Stannis would have mobilized the city, whether it was willing or not, in time to face Renly.

You are mixing two situations here. KL would have fallen when Stannis attacked, with his forces that included those that moved over to him after Renly´s death. Totally different situation if Stannis attacks with much less troops (pre-Renly´s death).

[Naathi Prince]

You are mixing two situations here. KL would have fallen when Stannis attacked, with his forces that included those that moved over to him after Renly´s death. Totally different situation if Stannis attacks with much less troops (pre-Renly´s death).

Nah, pre-Storm's End, Saan and others and urging on the attack, because KL is led by Joffrey and Cersei and the guards are known to be be undisciplined and corrupt.

[Stannis ftw]

Stannis brought 5,000 to Storm's End, but I doubt that is anywhere close to his full strength, as he needed to keep Dragonstone in any case. If he was sailing to take KL, he'd bring his full force. I also would assume that he would force the surrendered forces at KL to fight on his behalf, with his men behind them to cut them down if they run, as well as a militia of residents. Also, the Naval superiority and additional sellswords he'd be able to hire, levies from lords he'd be able to buy, etc. He followed Melisandre's lead when he went after Renly first.

5000 probably close to his full strength. Why would he leave significant numbers to Dragonstone - who would attack it in immediate future? Anyway it´s easy to defend without big numbers. When Stannis sailed north afterwards, he left only token force to Dragonstone, but it was still considered really tricky fortress to overtake.

As to your other ideas like "militia of residents", not very worthwile considerations. If Stannis had made this move AND succeeded (unlikely), Renly would also move fast, so no time for Stannis to loot & hire lots of sellswords from outside. Even in best case scenario it would have been a short-lived victory, and a dumb move.

[Stannis ftw]

Nah, pre-Storm's End, Saan and others and urging on the attack, because KL is led by Joffrey and Cersei and the guards are known to be be undisciplined and corrupt.

Ah yes, I read Tywin instead of Tyrion. My bad.

[Dark Rider]

Depends on how clear her visions were. She didn't see the movement of Tywin's army ahead of time and there is no mention that she tried to warn Stannis of anything at any time.

Look, it had to go down as it did or it would have been a short series. Stannis has to lose the Battle of the Blackwater, because if there is one thing people love more than a winner it's a come back climb to victory. Stannis the Mannis is going to kick some arse and take names against the Bastard Bolton and it's going to be epic. Pure win, rightous beat down, and Martin better give us that, because yes at points in real conflicts the good guys have kicked some serious arse.

[Otho Bracken]

If Stannis had won with Mel's help, then he would be known throughout the realm as Mel's bitch. What kind of victory is that? The Onion Knight had it right.

[Stannis ftw]

Look, it had to go down as it did or it would have been a short series. Stannis has to lose the Battle of the Blackwater, because if there is one thing people love more than a winner it's a come back climb to victory.

Yesh, also Renly had to die, otherwise he would have simply won outright and short series again. Everything was going his way. Stannis with 5000 men vs. Renly with 80 000-100 000 - no contest.

[Naathi Prince]

Yesh, also Renly had to die, otherwise he would have simply won outright and short series again. Everything was going his way. Stannis with 5000 men vs. Renly with 80 000-100 000 - no contest.

Renly was a moron, he should have just taken King's Landing and done it quickly. Once he has the city, he could keep Cersei and Tyrion and Sansa captive, and force both Lord Tywin to quit and go home, trade Ice, Sansa, and the effects of Lord Eddard to the Starks in exchange for fealty, war over. What does Stannis do then, huh? But no, he had to be a show off. Worst Baratheon by far.

[tze]

There's a lot Mel could have done to help Stannis. She seems to have near complete control over fire, which may have averted some of the wildfire crisis,

I don't think we've been shown this at all. She has powders that can manipulate flame (she mentions them in her POV, and it appears she was using them to make the flames jump around during the Alys/Sigorn wedding), but her supply appears to be far too limited for it to make any real difference during a battle. For all her posturing, were she actually immune to, or able to magically control, any source of fire, then she would logically have been in no danger from "Mance's" pyre during ADWD. The very fact that she thinks to herself that she'd have burned on that pyre had Jon not killed Rattleshirt and cut the link between Rattleshirt and Mel---well, this doesn't jive with the idea that Mel really does have "near complete control" over fire.

And I think it's premature to assume she has any control over---or even affinity toward---wildfire. Wildifire doesn't even appear to be on her radar at all; she never uses it, encourages Stannis to use it, or even brings it up as a potential weapon.

not to mention she has some sort of warging abilities.

She's never been shown to have any warging abilities, though. She took credit for setting Orell's eagle on fire, but for all we know someone else (Bloodraven?) did that and she just played along because it helped her reputation. She seemed to do something to screw with Jon's bond with Ghost, but she's shown no warging abilities herself.

Hell, she could have glamored Stannis's army and Navy to be so insurmountably large that the goldcloaks dropped their spears and ran from the very beginning.

Given the incredible amount of effort it supposedly took for her to glamour two men (Mance and Rattleshirt), I don't see any way for her to have realistically been capable of glamouring an entire army.

Depends on how clear her visions were. She didn't see the movement of Tywin's army ahead of time and there is no mention that she tried to warn Stannis of anything at any time.

The issue here is that Mel already had a vision of the army arriving---she just misinterpreted it as Renly's army, because she assumed that Renly's armor had to include Renly himself. Had Mel accompanied Stannis, and been watching the flames during the battle, who's to say she'd have had any more luck? She might just have had her "Renly's armor" vision over and over again, and by the time she figured out what it really meant, it would've been too late to do anything about it.

[DarkAndFullOfTurnips]

If Stannis had won with Mel's help, then he would be known throughout the realm as Mel's bitch. What kind of victory is that? The Onion Knight had it right.

I disagree. He would have been known as the man who took KL with a fearsome, red priestess by his side. In for a penny, in for a pound.

And as far as how she could help, the only way would be if she glimpsed the Tyrell/Tywin army joining the battle, in which case there was basically no way to win regardless.

[Naathi Prince]

I don't think we've been shown this at all. She has powders that can manipulate flame (she mentions them in her POV, and it appears she was using them to make the flames jump around during the Alys/Sigorn wedding), but her supply appears to be far too limited for it to make any real difference during a battle. For all her posturing, were she actually immune to, or able to magically control, any source of fire, then she would logically have been in no danger from "Mance's" pyre during ADWD. The very fact that she thinks to herself that she'd have burned on that pyre had Jon not killed Rattleshirt and cut the link between Rattleshirt and Mel---well, this doesn't jive with the idea that Mel really does have "near complete control" over fire.

She also states that she is in less need of said powders these days, due to the forceful return of magic to the world, and she did create Stannis's sword, which while not Lightbringer, does have something strange going on with it. As far as Rattleshirt's pyre, while she does seem to be able to both create and manipulate fire, that doesn't mean she has to be immune to its effects. If she needs to maintain the bond to rattleshirt to maintain the glamor, then she's going to experience the pain of the bond. Its a price she's agreed to pay for the deception of keeping Mance alive.

And I think it's premature to assume she has any control over---or even affinity toward---wildfire. Wildifire doesn't even appear to be on her radar at all; she never uses it, encourages Stannis to use it, or even brings it up as a potential weapon.

Granted.

She's never been shown to have any warging abilities, though. She took credit for setting Orell's eagle on fire, but for all we know someone else (Bloodraven?) did that and she just played along because it helped her reputation. She seemed to do something to screw with Jon's bond with Ghost, but she's shown no warging abilities herself.

What do you call that, if not warging abilities? Wargs appear to be able to take animals from other wargs, look at Varamyr Sixskins, who says he would have been able to take Ghost. As far as Orell's Eagle, if it was bloodraven, why do it then and not before? Since when do Greenseers show the ability to ignite an animal?

Given the incredible amount of effort it supposedly took for her to glamour two men (Mance and Rattleshirt), I don't see any way for her to have realistically been capable of glamouring an entire army.

How much does the length of the glamor effect this? Much of Mel's powers are a complete mystery to us, even despite her POV chapter.

The issue here is that Mel already had a vision of the army arriving---she just misinterpreted it as Renly's army, because she assumed that Renly's armor had to include Renly himself. Had Mel accompanied Stannis, and been watching the flames during the battle, who's to say she'd have had any more luck? She might just have had her "Renly's armor" vision over and over again, and by the time she figured out what it really meant, it would've been too late to do anything about it.

True, and I pointed out the irony of the situation before. She may have sensed either the chain or the wildfire in a fire if she was there. After all, they would be direct threats to her person.

I am by no means a big fan of Mel, but I am also not in a hurry to put hard limits on what she can accomplish. Last time I did that she birthed a shadowbaby and made Stannis a real contender.