What if the Battle of Blackwater ended differently?

[Addam of Hull]

There's no way that Robb and his Lords decide to pledge fealty to Stannis. It's true that their original beef was with Joffrey and the Lannisters, but the point that made them realize was simple: the real problem was that they were being ruled over by someone who had no relevance to them. The IT was held by people who shared no similarities with the North and had no understanding of what it was like to live there. At that point, they didn't really give a damn who sat on it, the North wanted to be independent once again. Stannis becoming KotIT wouldn't change the fact that he has no idea of what the North goes through. Once Ned died, any chance of peace between the North and South died with him.

[Frey Pie]

This thread is discussing after Blackwater, by which time all Stannis had already declared himself a King and the North had already declared themselves a Kingdom. I reckon had Stannis won the Battle, Robb would've maintained his push for independence.

Im quite aware what the thread is about. You stated that the Norths issue isnt with any of the other claimants, which is clearly wrong. Its all about Joffrey and the Lannisters. Wether or not Robb kneels depends on Stannis' strength. If Stannis comes out of the battle stronger then ever and gains the support of the Stormlander lords and HG then Robb would consider kneeling for a number of reasons:

Its possible Stannis has Sansa

Stannis has gained vengeance on Robb enemy

A war against Stannis would likely end in defeat for Robb, not for sure, but likely

Squids at home means Robb has to leave the South. The Riverlands cant hold without him

Ned would have wanted him to kneel as Stannis is the rightful King. Cat would urge him to do so also

The Baratheons are friends to Robbs family, both River and North side

Hence i believe, if Stannis offers favourable terms, and promises for example to help put down the Iron Islanders, Robb would seriously consider kneeling. As already said Ned could have declared independance after RR, but was happy to be ruled by a good man and warrior. Stannis is just the sort of man who could gain the respect of the Northerners, as weve seen with the Mountain Clans

[Ice Turtle]

If Tywin hadn't showed up in time, he would show up later. So Stannis would sit the throne for about a month before Willas marries Arianne and Sweetrobin marries Margaery and joined armies of Lannisters, Martells, Tyrells and Arryns smash him. Or Robb would smash Tywin and the rest of the kingdom declares independence region by region. Renly was right, no one wanted Stannis for the king. The only small chance for Stannis keeping the throne was if he agreed with Shireen/Willas marriage.

[Fat Mac]

If Tywin hadn't showed up in time, he would show up later. So Stannis would sit the throne for about a month before Willas marries Arianne and Sweetrobin marries Margaery and joined armies of Lannisters, Martells, Tyrells and Arryns smash him. Or Robb would smash Tywin and the rest of the kingdom declares independence region by region. Renly was right, no one wanted Stannis for the king. The only small chance for Stannis keeping the throne was if he agreed with Shireen/Willas marriage.

The Arryn forces weren't leaving the Vale. Lysa made this very clear. She was completely neutral in the War of Five Kings, and probably never would have accepted any marriage proposal for Sweetrobin. Also, if Joffrey and Tommen are dead (presuming Stannis takes the city and kills them), why should the Tyrells stay with the Lannisters? The whole reason for joining was marrying Margaery to Joffrey. Revenge for Renly was only more of Loras' goal than the goal of the Tyrell forces as a whole I'd say. And Doran would never marry Arianne to Willas. Doran didn't like the Lannisters, and certainly wouldn't care for the Tyrell-Lannister alliance. I think the only reason he declared in the first place was to keep his head down and suspicion off him. Also no way would he send his forces.

[TomWillcox]

There's no way that Robb and his Lords decide to pledge fealty to Stannis.

You really need to re-read Catelyn's chapter as Robb returned to Riverrun. When speaking to Edmure about the Battle of the Fords, we get the following passage:

"Lord Stannis was about to fall upon King's Landing" Robb said. "He might have rid us of Joffrey, the queen, and the Imp in one red stroke. Then we might have been able to make a peace."

Clearly, *clearly* the issue is not the Lannister family as a whole, as he did not need Lord Tywin dead to make a peace. Even if you dismiss the idea that he would have made peace with Tywin, you cannot, absolutely cannot, deny that he would have made peace with Stannis.

[Ice Turtle]

The Arryn forces weren't leaving the Vale. Lysa made this very clear. She was completely neutral in the War of Five Kings, and probably never would have accepted any marriage proposal for Sweetrobin. Also, if Joffrey and Tommen are dead (presuming Stannis takes the city and kills them), why should the Tyrells stay with the Lannisters? The whole reason for joining was marrying Margaery to Joffrey. Revenge for Renly was only more of Loras' goal than the goal of the Tyrell forces as a whole I'd say. And Doran would never marry Arianne to Willas. Doran didn't like the Lannisters, and certainly wouldn't care for the Tyrell-Lannister alliance. I think the only reason he declared in the first place was to keep his head down and suspicion off him. Also no way would he send his forces.

Lysa was neutral as long as it suited Littlefinger. Stannis on the throne definitely doesn't agree with Littlefinger and Lysa betrothed Sweetrobin to Sansa, if LF wanted I believe he would be able to make her agree with betrothal to Margaery.

Why would Tyrells agree to join the Lannisters? Because there is no way in hell they would join Stannis after they rebelled twice against him, he is a type of person that would punish them for it, not to mention his Florent wife and some old wounds from Robert's Rebellion.

Doran already betrothed Myrcella to Trystane, I see no reason why he wouldn't pretend to side with Lannisers a little longer. Besides with Stannis out people might be more inclined to suppost Targs. Oh yeah, and if she was alive, Myrcella would be the queen.

[Fat Mac]

But why would the Tyrells put their swords behind the Lannisters if none of them are going to marry royalty? The entire goal was to get Margaery to be queen, whether her king is Renly or Joffrey.

Also, Stannis is smart enough to forget old wounds in order to get Tyrell swords. His wife and the Florents have a very little deciding factor in his decisions.

[Victor227]

Tommen was at Rosby when the battle at King's Landing went down. What's more, Stannis' victory -wasn't- guaranteed, even when the Gold Cloaks on the wall broke. All the fighting that went down occurred outside the walls. The only avenue for Stannis to move his troops was through a quickly-burning bridge of ships. That's not a stable strategy. The Lannister/Tyrell alliance swept the main body of Stannis' foot across the river, it didn't lift a finger to actually defend the city aside from win. If the bridge deteriorated, Stannis would be trapped back at stage one. And it -was- indeed an issue about all those ships cluttering up the bay. He may not have even been able to move Salladhor's fleet into position to move over the main body of his forces.

The troops he had on the King's Landing side may have taken the gate with the City Watch routed, but what then? They have organization, but there's an entire city in the midst of panicking and rioting now. If the mob winds up turned on them, they're just a handful trying to hold a city. What's more, the Red Keep was fortified enough to hold for a while so long as the defenders had the morale to do so. If they even so much as -heard- Tywin was on the way, Cersei could have held the Red Keep together long enough for reinforcements to arrive. Especially if Stannis himself couldn't cross over the river.

Even assuming Stannis won the day, Tommen would be declared king, Tywin would maintain the alliance by hitching him to Margery, and their combined forces would attack the siege-weakened city, perhaps even wait a bit for Paxtor's fleet to show up to finish the job (or hell, Tywin could just go "Hey, Salladhor, you're a sellsail, and I AM THE RICHEST GUY IN WESTEROS"). The Tyrells didn't want Stannis to become king no matter what. Neither did quite a bit of the realm. The lords that hitched themselves to him at Storm's End did so mostly out of a desire to save their own skins from the perception that his star was rising. How much loyalty would he command when he'd have to maintain his - now diminished- army inside King's Landing with a vengeful Tywin Lannister outside the walls outnumbering them four to one?

[Addam of Hull]

You really need to re-read Catelyn's chapter as Robb returned to Riverrun. When speaking to Edmure about the Battle of the Fords, we get the following passage:

"Lord Stannis was about to fall upon King's Landing" Robb said. "He might have rid us of Joffrey, the queen, and the Imp in one red stroke. Then we might have been able to make a peace."

Clearly, *clearly* the issue is not the Lannister family as a whole, as he did not need Lord Tywin dead to make a peace. Even if you dismiss the idea that he would have made peace with Tywin, you cannot, absolutely cannot, deny that he would have made peace with Stannis.

Making a peace is different than bending the knee, which is what's being stated in this thread. Robb's problems are specifically with Joffrey and his direct family, but the reasons for why the North ultimately rises in rebellion are much more complex than the death of Ned. His hope here is that Stannis would be more likely to be tractable to the idea of an independent North, but we know differently. Catelyn still hasn't informed him about how opposed Stannis actually is to that idea, so he's operating under a false assumption.

[Ice Turtle]

But why would the Tyrells put their swords behind the Lannisters if none of them are going to marry royalty? The entire goal was to get Margaery to be queen, whether her king is Renly or Joffrey.

Also, Stannis is smart enough to forget old wounds in order to get Tyrell swords. His wife and the Florents have a very little deciding factor in his decisions.

Not behind, they could have allied as equals. With Tyrion and Cersei dead, son of Tywin or any child of Jaime (if he ceased to be a member of the KG) would be a heir to Casterly Rock, if Margaery wouldn't marry Sweetrobin they could've had it, besides with enough swords they could have just named anyone as a new king.

Even if Stannis pardoned them, they would gain no profit and what if some maester told him one day that Florents are rightful heirs to Gardeners? Which they probably are.

[Victor227]

Are we talking about the books or the TV show? Because in the books the Lannisters did the smart thing and moved Tommen to Rosby before the siege. He would be alive no matter what to marry Margery.

[Batman]

He probably would have had time to consolidate his hold on the city. It all depends on how many of his troops survived in this alternate reality. He started with roughly 20,000 and after the Lannister/Tyrell host swept through he escaped with 2,000. The red keep probably would have gave in quickly with Stannis in command of the city.

Are 10,000 or so troops enough to hold against 80,000? Walls are worth a lot, but it's going to be difficult for Stannis to mount an offensive. The Lannisters had Tommen hidden at Rosby so they could declare for him. The Starks could still mount offensives against the West or the Reach, though most likely they head North. The fence sitting Stormlords may be moved to declare for Stannis. The Swann's and the Dondarions are very powerful and undeclared.

The war gets a lot more bloody, in short.

[Ponys123]

http://awoiaf.wester...nquest_of_Dorne

Daeron I did manage to bring Dorne in. They then had an uprising and won their freedom back quickly. For the North, who claim almost 10,000 years of existence as a Kingdom, about 300 years wouldn't seem like too much time to quickly snatch back independence.

The total amount of time spent as kingdom matters for exactly jack shit. 1 year is not enough to cement one's reign, 300 years is far more than enough. Dorne threw the Targs' rule off as soon as their army left, the North has spent centuries as part of the realm and is viewed as an integral part of it.

The idea that Robb and Stannis would be allies is thrown around a lot, because they're both seen as "the good guys" by the readership in contrast to the Lannisters, but it really cannot be backed up, as it's not consistent with the actual situation. The matter of Northern independence is a very important one, and most fans just wave it away because they can't address it.