Grand Tyrell Conspiracy Theory

[Jon Targaryen]

[quote name='urizen' post='1188990' date='Jan 14 2008, 01.21']I doubt Paxter will be doing much corraling with regards to Mace's actions. In the little we have seen of Paxter, mainly through Tyrion's eyes, he comes of as an asskissing yes-man who agrees with Mace in everything.[/quote]
Hmm, could you provide some quotes? I thought it was Mace who was the leader (but only because of blood) with Mathis, Paxter and Randyll being his lieutenants.

[adriandarco]

An interesting theory, but I don't agree with it. I'm sure the Tyrells had a secret plot to get the power, but Cersei's crazy decisions and the new High Septon messed it up.

I think, that the new High Septon serves only the Faith, not the Tyrells or other houses. He is an unexpected factor is Cersei's and the Tyrell's plans. I'don't think that anyone expected the Faith to become strong in this short time. The Tyrells couldn't plan that Cersei will be arrested...

And Margaery...well she's too passionate to be virgin. Maybe she was the weak point of the Tyrell plan. But Garlan can still fight for her, so that's not a big problem :)

And I'm sure that Loras is seriously wounded. Why would they lie that he's burned? They would say that he's wounded. They just put some bangades on him and they everybody believe it, they could have more witnesses. There's no reason to lie that he's burned. And it's hard to immagine Loras playing that game... Playing that he's wounded, instead of posing as the conqueror of Dragonstone. No way.


But who will fight against Cersei's champion? It's not very likely, but Lancel could. It would be interesting, and faith and magic is becoming stronger and stronger, so Lancel could be more dangerous than he appears to be.

[urizen]

[quote name='Jon Targaryen' post='1189001' date='Jan 14 2008, 10.36']Hmm, could you provide some quotes? I thought it was Mace who was the leader (but only because of blood) with Mathis, Paxter and Randyll being his lieutenants.[/quote]


I don't have time at the moment to dreg up qoutes and exact pages ( I have to be at work in 20 min :thumbsdown: ) But it's in the Tyrion chapters in early aSoS during the small council meetings. Paxter's "contributions" consists of voicing support of every statmentMace makes and supporting the suggestion that they give the north to the Greyjoys. Paxter, during the on-screen time he has, is very similar to how Orton Merryweather acts in AFFC.

[Guest Other-in-law]

The one main incident with Paxter that I recall, was when Tywin spoke of providing the Martells with justice for Elia and her children:

[i]'Tyrion watched the faces of the Lords Tyrell, Redwyne, and Rowan, wondering if any of the three would be bold enough to say, "But Lord Tywin, wasn't it you who presented the bodies to Robert all wrapped up in Lannister cloaks?" None of them did, but it was there on their faces all the same. [/i] Redwyne does not give a fig, [i]he thought,[/i] but Rowan looks fit to gag.'

Matthis Rowan comes across as a man of principle, Redwyne as a thoroughly amoral courtier.

[SkyPirate]

Also, don't forget that Redwyne is Mace's cousin (actual first cousin) and the husband of Mace's sister. Sounds like a pretty strong family bond if you ask me.

[TrackerNeil]

MJS -

I think you're making the common mistake of ascribing to a Grand Unifying Theory of ASOIAF. Not that the Tyrells aren't trying to undermine Cersei (clearly they are), but I'm not sure they've got fingers in every single pie in King's Landing. A few things about your theory that caught my eye are:

1) Although I suspect Aurane Waters was working against Cersei, I don't think it was at Highgarden's behest. Waters was a Stannis man, and personally, I think that never changed. There's really no reason for him to assist the Tyrells in any plot, unless of course that serves his own agenda.

2) If Taena Merryweather is a Tyrell spy, why would she set up Margaery for treason? If Lady Olenna is truly the guiding hand to all this, as you seem to suggest, she would never have allowed it.

3) I don't think the High Septon is [i]anybody's[/i] pawn in this. The man clearly has his own agenda, and it's not Highgarden's.

Obviously, you're correct that the Tyrells, and Olenna and Margaery in particular, are working to undermine Cersei and the Lannisters in general, but I think you're taken things a bit too far. Just because there is a plot doesn't mean that everything that has happened is part of it. As we've seen in this series, there are more plots than you can shake a stick at, and none of them is a singular explanation for anything.

[Blackstone]

[quote]1) Although I suspect Aurane Waters was working against Cersei, I don't think it was at Highgarden's behest. Waters was a Stannis man, and personally, I think that never changed. There's really no reason for him to assist the Tyrells in any plot, unless of course that serves his own agenda.[/quote]

I don't know who Aurane Waters belongs to. Other than past accidental allegiance based on geography -- i.e., his father is a bannerman of Stannis, what leads you to conclude that Waters is one of Stannis'?

[quote]2) If Taena Merryweather is a Tyrell spy, why would she set up Margaery for treason? If Lady Olenna is truly the guiding hand to all this, as you seem to suggest, she would never have allowed it.[/quote]

Taena doesn't set Margaery up for treason -- that's Cersei's plan. Taena tries to mitigate it as much as possible, by convincing Cersei to leave certain people out of it.

[quote]3) I don't think the High Septon is anybody's pawn in this. The man clearly has his own agenda, and it's not Highgarden's.[/quote]

I agree with this wholeheartedly. The High Septon appears to be an example of Littlefinger's aphorism about some peices having wills of their own.

[Lord Varys]

Let's just for one moment ignore the whole conspiracy theory, and speculate how the Tyrells are going to react to Margaery's trial.

If they are in for power (which they are), they cannot tolerate Margaery being guilty, for the Western Alliance was about Mace seeing his grandson sitting the Iron Throne. If Cersei, too, is guilty, makes no difference.

If they are in for love (which they are, too) they cannot tolerate a disgraced or dead Margaery. As far as we know Mace loves his daughter, and the Tyrells appear to be a family that truly cares for each other.

Considering Ser Kevan being far in the West, maybe in Casterly Rock with his brother's corpse, I think both, Lord Randyll Tarly in Maidenpool and Mace Tyrell at Storm's End are nearer to King's Landing than him.
Which means one or both the Tyrell armies will arrive at KL before Kevan arrives - considering he is still interested in taking the Regency and Handship.

I do not see the newly armed Faith resisting any army, be that Tyrell or Lannister. But they have the Queens hostage. Neither Kevan nor Mace can storm the Great Sept, if they want to safe them. And the Lannisters (both Jaime and Kevan) should have pretty much no interst in saving Cersei. So the Tyrells have reason to reason with the Faith, although I imagine Randyll Tarly will be willing and able to storm the Great Sept and slaughter the Most Devout, if there will be no other way.

[TrackerNeil]

[quote name='Blackstone' post='1189616' date='Jan 14 2008, 16.23']I don't know who Aurane Waters belongs to. Other than past accidental allegiance based on geography -- i.e., his father is a bannerman of Stannis, what leads you to conclude that Waters is one of Stannis'?[/quote]

Uh...because he is a former bannerman of Stannis...what other reason do I need? Besides, I never said I was certain Waters was still a Stannis fan, but that certainly seems more likely to me than a Tyrell allegiance. If Waters were truly a Tyrell supporter he would have waited in KL for Mace to arrive, instead of fleeing with Cersei's new dromonds.

[quote name='Blackstone' post='1189616' date='Jan 14 2008, 16.23']Taena doesn't set Margaery up for treason -- that's Cersei's plan. Taena tries to mitigate it as much as possible, by convincing Cersei to leave certain people out of it.[/quote]

Taena doesn't originate the plot, it's true, but she helps it along quite readily. Olenna would never condone such activity. Also, if Taena were working primarily for the Tyrells, she too would have waited in KL for Mace to arrive.

[Viperswhip]

[quote name='TrackerNeil' post='1190079' date='Jan 14 2008, 20.01']Uh...because he is a former bannerman of Stannis...what other reason do I need? Besides, I never said I was certain Waters was still a Stannis fan, but that certainly seems more likely to me than a Tyrell allegiance. If Waters were truly a Tyrell supporter he would have waited in KL for Mace to arrive, instead of fleeing with Cersei's new dromonds.
Taena doesn't originate the plot, it's true, but she helps it along quite readily. Olenna would never condone such activity. Also, if Taena were working primarily for the Tyrells, she too would have waited in KL for Mace to arrive.[/quote]

Why do you think that Taena and Waters should wait for Mace?

Taena may well have run right to Mace.

Waters may have scooted down the coast a bit, we don't know where he is, but what does Mace need him for? If he is with the Tyrells then may well be on his way to the other coast.

Knowing as we do that things in Martin's world do not always work out for the characters...is the Redwyne fleet going to run smackdab into the Iron Fleet on their respective courses? Heh, that's a discussion for another thread.

I am not saying I buy the conspiracy theory, I don't. Do we really believe that Olena is, what, living in a tent out in the Kingswood? Otherwise, there's no good way to mainting planning within a conspiracy. Ravens suck as a mode of communication, and riders in these chaotic times are even worse.

[TrackerNeil]

Lord Varys -

Kevan may not like Cersei, but letting her be hung for regicide and murder will smear the Lannister name, and he won't want that. He'll do all he can to extricate his niece from the mess she created for herself, all the while trying to avoid a public scandal.

As to Margaery, I have always felt that the High Septon was less interested in her crimes than in Cersei's, which are much, much more serious. As you may recall, Qyburn reports that the sparrows were demanding such, and I'll bet they're not the only ones. I have this pet theory that the High Septon might be willing to hand her (and maybe even Cersei) over in return for certain concessions; namely, that the Freys are punished for the Red Wedding. Not sure how extensive a punishment the High Septon would demand, but it would be an interesting twist.

[Michael Jon Snow]

[quote name='TrackerNeil' post='1189350' date='Jan 14 2008, 13.06']MJS -

I think you're making the common mistake of ascribing to a Grand Unifying Theory of ASOIAF.[/quote]
willfully and knowingly ;)

[quote name='TrackerNeil' post='1189350' date='Jan 14 2008, 13.06']Not that the Tyrells aren't trying to undermine Cersei (clearly they are), but I'm not sure they've got fingers in every single pie in King's Landing. A few things about your theory that caught my eye are:

1) Although I suspect Aurane Waters was working against Cersei, I don't think it was at Highgarden's behest. Waters was a Stannis man, and personally, I think that never changed. There's really no reason for him to assist the Tyrells in any plot, unless of course that [b]serves his own agenda.[/b][/quote]

W don't know where his allegiances lie except his own agenda.

[quote name='TrackerNeil' post='1189350' date='Jan 14 2008, 13.06']2) If Taena Merryweather is a Tyrell spy, why would she set up Margaery for treason? If Lady Olenna is truly the guiding hand to all this, as you seem to suggest, she would never have allowed it.

3) I don't think the High Septon is [i]anybody's[/i] pawn in this. The man clearly has his own agenda, and it's not Highgarden's.[/quote] Agreed that he is no mans pawn and that he has his own agenda. But I think that on the morning of Marge's arrest he saw his agenda and that of the Tyrell's aligning and that any Church-Tyrell union is purely temporary.

[quote name='TrackerNeil' post='1189350' date='Jan 14 2008, 13.06']Obviously, you're correct that the Tyrells, and Olenna and Margaery in particular, are working to undermine Cersei and the Lannisters in general, but I think you're taken things a bit too far. Just because there is a plot doesn't mean that everything that has happened is part of it. As we've seen in this series, there are more plots than you can shake a stick at, and none of them is a singular explanation for anything.[/quote]

I know I am chasing at shadows, but it is fun!

[Blackstone]

On the issue of Waters, maybe we should attack this another way. Because, in my view there is simply no evidence to suggest that he is a Tyrell creature, or a Stannis creature or a Cersei loyalist, etc.

Does the Grand Tyrell Conspiracy Theory REQUIRE Waters' particpation as a knowing Tyrell agent?

Taena flees Kings Landing because she doesn't want to be put to the question as Cersei is about to be put to the question.

[Michael Jon Snow]

For the conspiracy to work as I have outlined it, yes Waters would have to either be a knowing participant or the ruse to convince him that his report to Cersei was accurate would have been elaborate. And there would have to have been some very fortunate coincidences.

Now he might not know the full extent of the plot, but he would have to know that he was being sent back to KL to give a false report to Cersei. He would need to have been dropped off in KL with no one else from the ship coming ashore, and he would have had to know what false info to give to Cersei and to keep his mouth shut to anyone else.

Unlike Pycelle, who may have been a knowing participant or may have been duped. That he called for Kevan to be hand rather than Mace says that he was likely duped rather than a participant.

[TrackerNeil]

[quote name='Blackstone' post='1191037' date='Jan 15 2008, 15.09']On the issue of Waters, maybe we should attack this another way. Because, in my view there is simply no evidence to suggest that he is a Tyrell creature, or a Stannis creature or a Cersei loyalist, etc.[/quote]

There's a bit of evidence to [i]suggest [/i]that Waters is still a Stannis man. You might recall that Cersei considers giving Rosby's lands and castle to Waters, who had been clamoring for a lordly seat. She notes that he had his eye on Dragonstone, but she dismisses that as too high for his station. I can't help but wonder if Waters was thinking that he could hold the island ostensibly for Tommen, but really for Stannis.

Also, I think that Waters could have struck a deal with Loras to make up a story about Loras' death without Waters being a Tyrell creature. If, as I suggest, he is loyal to Stannis, it would be to his benefit to lie about Dragonstone's fall, both to preserve Stannis' stronghold and to derive favor from the Tyrells. It's a win-win for Aurane Waters. And, if he is setting sail for the Wall, when he arrives he can say, "I know I changed my loyalties after the Blackwater, but look! I not only brought you a bunch of nice dromonds, but I also took steps to see that the assault on Dragonstone was abandoned." Of course, Stannis might make him a lord for the ships and a corpse for the betrayal... :mellow:

[Blackstone]

Hmm, you almost have me convinced. If Waters did indeed pull that off, then he ought to be Stannis' Hand.

Stannis' fleet burns to the water line.
Waters turns cloak
Waters weasels his way onto the Smallest Council
Waters convinces Cersei to bankrupt the realm building a new fleet for Stannis
Waters lies to Cersei's face about taking Dragonstone
Waters flees when Cersei falls
Waters turns cloak yet again, and presents Stannis with a shiny new fleet for christmas or Reddawn or whatever they have instead.

That's a fairly impressive betrayal from a basically a kid.

[Viperswhip]

[quote name='Blackstone' post='1192743' date='Jan 16 2008, 11.55']Hmm, you almost have me convinced. If Waters did indeed pull that off, then he ought to be Stannis' Hand.

Stannis' fleet burns to the water line.
Waters turns cloak
Waters weasels his way onto the Smallest Council
Waters convinces Cersei to bankrupt the realm building a new fleet for Stannis
Waters lies to Cersei's face about taking Dragonstone
Waters flees when Cersei falls
Waters turns cloak yet again, and presents Stannis with a shiny new fleet for christmas or Reddawn or whatever they have instead.

That's a fairly impressive betrayal from a basically a kid.[/quote]

The only difficult thing Waters did in your above list is get onto the Smallest Council. Otherwise, fooling Cersei is easy.

[wvlr]

[quote name='Blackstone' post='1192743' date='Jan 16 2008, 12.55']Hmm, you almost have me convinced. If Waters did indeed pull that off, then he ought to be Stannis' Hand.

Stannis' fleet burns to the water line.
Waters turns cloak
Waters weasels his way onto the Smallest Council
Waters convinces Cersei to bankrupt the realm building a new fleet for Stannis
Waters lies to Cersei's face about taking Dragonstone
Waters flees when Cersei falls
Waters turns cloak yet again, and presents Stannis with a shiny new fleet for christmas or Reddawn or whatever they have instead.

That's a fairly impressive betrayal from a basically a kid.[/quote]



The last one is not necessary for the overall plot and given Stannis's habit of dealing harshly with people who try to do him favors - I think it is Unlikely.

Didn't Sam see a group of ships that he noted were Large Drommunds when he sailed into Old Town?

If they are the same ones - I would say that Waters is Deeply in the Tyrell Camp and is probably loading up fighters and such in preparation to sail further north with other ships to confront the Iron Born. And save Highgarden and really make a name (Lordship or such) for himself. Maybe Marg or Loras did not turn him down when he hinted he wanted more than Cersei was willing to give.

Not that they are actually going to give him Dragonstone. Maybe they found something lesser that he would accept OR maybe they did - That does not mean that he will live to collect.

Cersei is stupid for not stringing him along better. She could always have given him to Qyburn later - when she is done with him.

[urizen]

[quote name='wvlr' post='1193210' date='Jan 17 2008, 01.58']Didn't Sam see a group of ships that he noted were Large Drommunds when he sailed into Old Town?[/quote]

Sam, indeed saw a sunken drommond as they were approching Oldtown but that could just as well have ship from the Oldtown fleet. the timeline is murky but I don't think Aurane would have had the time to get from KL to Oldtown, [b]IF [/b]he is in the Tyrell camp. Also, Maybe they traveled seperately or something, but if Aurane is in the Reach fighting Ironborn why are the Hightowers of the opinion that the Redwyne fleet is tied up in KL. Shouldn't the Redwyne's be with Aurane?

[wvlr]

[quote name='urizen' post='1193631' date='Jan 17 2008, 03.15']Sam, indeed saw a sunken drommond as they were approching Oldtown but that could just as well have ship from the Oldtown fleet. the timeline is murky but I don't think Aurane would have had the time to get from KL to Oldtown, [b]IF [/b]he is in the Tyrell camp. Also, Maybe they traveled seperately or something, but if Aurane is in the Reach fighting Ironborn why are the Hightowers of the opinion that the Redwyne fleet is tied up in KL. Shouldn't the Redwyne's be with Aurane?[/quote]


OK I dug out the book so I can Quote exactly.

AFfC US HB Pg 673:

It was when they entered the Whispering Sound that Sam saw:
......the shallows and sandbars were strewn with shattered ships. Merchanters and fishing boats were the most common, but they saw abandoned longships too, and the wrechage of two big dromonds. ...........



Then later when they actually reached Oldtown.

AFfC US HB Pg 675:

.......A boom stretched across the harbor, linking two dozen rotted hulks. Just behind it stood a lind of warships, anchored by three big dromonds and Lord hightower's towering four-decked banner ship, the Honor of Oldtown. ............

So it looks like we were BOTH correct.