Grand Tyrell Conspiracy Theory

[the silent speaker]

They had many other options. First and formost, she could have declined the marriage. She did not decline though. Why, for the same reason she married Gay Renly - because she wanted to be Queen. A pretty lame excuse to me.

[Kaeln]

I don't buy this Unified theory, at all. But it does raise a number of interesting points, that given the fast paced nature of the Cersei chapters, are not resolved by any means:

1) Osney being interrogated so quickly. This is completely unsuppported, but given A) Martin's general thematic destruction of the unified kingdom to make the Others' invasion more damaging, and B) a world in which magic is rapidly regaining power, no one thinks that maybe the High Septon is simply capable of using magic to detect falsehood?

Seriously, it is a straight out of a nightmare scenario: An Inquisition where they can read your mind.

Hell, you can just make the sorcery part of the established blood magic - they aren't torturing them for the pain, they are torturing them for the blood to power the truth spells they are using against them!

The big question if Martin would do such a historical inversion - the church seizing noble lands - or would that be part of its surprise?

2) Loras' body (and lack thereof). We don't "see" Loras' body, only reports. And given the number of "preview" plot points we've seen, I have to point out that "person in someone else's armor" was used once, with Renly. Until we see a mangled body, there is no guarantee that the burning happened.

On the other hand, this does violate the general theme Martin has going of the next generation being physically scarred (by war), i.e. Jon, Bran, Tyrion, Myrcella, Theon, Brienne, Shireen (sorta), etc. Or would pretty-boy Loras still being pretty-boy be the reversal we aren't expecting?

3) Tyrell knowledge of Cersei's plot. The instant Cersei tells Margaery that she must be defended by the KG, Marge is able to completely decipher Cersei's plot and realize that Cersei has just arranged her death, and is appropriately pissed. So either:

A) Marge didn't know of at least some of the plot (possibly just the KG defender part, less possibly the whole thing), and as the Queen of Thorn's protege, has the skill to figure this all out instantly, making her one hell of a player.

B) Marge knew of the whole plot and is skilled enough at acting out her response, making her one hell of a player.

Note: Loras being removed from play with the fake burning was a smart play regardless of whether Tyrell knew about Cersei's plot or not. The KG is obviously under Lannister control, but a Loras that has been kicked out of the KG (since, you know, the Lannisters broke the "for life" rule, allowing it to be used against them) goes back into the Tyrell column, regardless if they had or had not planned to use him to off Osney/Blount in the trial by combat.

[the silent speaker]

Well, for the last thing at least, we've seen Margaery thinking quickly enough on the fly, and doesn't she reason out the Kingsguard bit out loud? IMO it's not that big a leap from being told "the Kingsguard must defend you" to running through the Kingsguard and realizing they all suck.

[Michael Jon Snow]

There's also the possibility that Margaery did not know of the Purple Wedding, and did risk death, and it was someone other than Olenna who poisoned the wine. My wager is Garlan. We've seen that even the known participants in the plot know no more than their own roles in it, so it's hardly inconceivable that Olenna knew no more than taking a stone from Sansa's hairnet and giving it to Garlan was a signal for him to do his part.

[the silent speaker]

... Littlefinger?

[Michael Jon Snow]

I don't buy this Unified theory, at all. But it does raise a number of interesting points, that given the fast paced nature of the Cersei chapters, are not resolved by any means:

[nester66]

Very well put together, can't say I believe it but I surely think the Tyrells are for more then they seem and I don't think Loras is dead. However, I will throw a dog a bone: Page 341 AFFC:

"Ser Boros," the queen said pleasantly, "you look quite grey this morning. Something you ate, perchance?" Jamie had made him the king's food tasted. A tasty task, but shameful for a knight. Blount hated it. His sagging jowls quivered as he helf the door for them.

[Stark'sGhost]

I am going to state now that I dont believe all of of the Theory, but I am going to defend some of it.

The Taking of Dragonstone. First of all remember that Cersie is scared out of her mind. We see this in a Clash of Kings when she Demands Tywin to bring his army down and protect KL. Second of all by the time LT decides to take dragonstone, she already believes that the Tyrells are against her. Knowing Cersie (who is the craziest chick i know) she will want to believe she is devious and allow Tyrell to Storm Dragonstone...(here is the point) with his own men. WHy would she get rid of the only Truely loyal Lannaster men when her enemies can break themselves against the walls of Dragonstone? she thus leaves the 2000 lannesters at KL.

That was my first point...seeing as that might not be the case and the lannesters and tyrells both storm dragonstone, how may I ask can word get back that the Tyrells dont allow? They control the ships that bring men back, and the ravans because Tyrell is in command. I Think he can feed any information to the outside world that they want. :whip:

TM lets just say that she isnt a spy for Tyrell, why wouldnt she foster her son and KL so that Tommen and him can play? This seems very odd to me. The only way this can be explained is that she is certain Cersie and Tommen will meet their Downfall at some point. Margery's actions in the cell also point to a grand Tyrell Plot. Cersie had no choice in what she did, she also cant see a trap because she believes that she is safe inside the walls of KL because (heres the kicker) there are 2,000 lannester Men at Arms outside the wall.

:cheers:

[lupis42]

[quote name='Lord Bronn' post='279158' date='May 5 2006, 17.11']Trouble is, the Tyrells didn't lie about Loras because it wasn't the Tyrells who brought the news to Cersei. In addition, it was a rather large undertaking to take Dragonbone, the Knight of Flowers didn't take the castle single handed. Meaning many others saw him get hurt and burned. He may not die but he is certainly more crispy and less pretty.[/quote]

But who saw Loras? I'm betting that people saw Loras' armor, maybe Loras' horse, but no Loras. Burns are a fantastic method of disguising one's identity, and so is armor and a helm. What's more, this is a Tyrell trick we've already seen, on the Blackwater. (I'm not saying that's what happened, but it would be easy enough)

For my money:
Loras got himself wrecked, thanks to a bad case of crazy heroic arrogant naivete.

Little queen is no virgin, but she wasn't banging anyone at KL either, 'cept maybe the girls, because risking being discovered with a man would have been stupid. Moon tea was for some other affliction/person, which Pycelle may have been saying. What she was doing was doing everything she could to establish popular support, and separate Tommen from his psycho mom. She's not ok with being in prison, though, that much is pretty clear.

Taena is a spy for [i]someone[/i], because she was clearly seducing, manipulating, and monitoring Cersei like there was no tomorrow. It may not, however have been the Tyrells, although the obvious candidate is the QoT, who has probably figured out that Cersei isn't really much of an improvement on Joff, or even Arys II.

Kettleblack was whipped because the new high sparrow is a devious, cunning, mistrustful zealot whackjob to equal Torquemada.

Aurane Waters was in the pay of the Tyrells, or at least had come to some agreement with them, and has been for some time. He was hoping to pump a lordship out of Cersei before splitting with the ships.

The High septon is... see above. He is very difficult to control, and trying to establish a theocracy. He is destined for an unpleasant encounter of the stabbity variety, but it won't be easy.

Cersei is just Cersei, smart and charismatic, but paranoid and delusional, completely unable to separate what she wants to be true from what is true, and flattery from loyalty. While she is intended partly as a contrast for an upcoming ruling Danerys, she also makes an interesting contrast for Stannis. Stannis, while just as paranoid and prone to wishful thinking, has a fairly good ear for wise and honest council.

Oh, and Littlefinger is still playing the game, and so far, nobody has figured it out. Either he'll turn out to be an ally of Varys, working for Dany's return, or he'll get it from Sansa when he tries to boink her.

[quote name='Stark'sGhost' post='973131' date='Aug 27 2007, 14.51']TM lets just say that she isnt a spy for Tyrell, why wouldnt she foster her son and KL so that Tommen and him can play? This seems very odd to me. The only way this can be explained is that she is certain Cersie and Tommen will meet their Downfall at some point.[/quote]

Remember, she doesn't. She makes excuses instead, and Cersei blindly buys it.

[The Great Other]

I think the tyrells are in this with Prince Doran.....i think the Dornish-Highgarden hate is smal. for example. Both dorn and highgarden fought against robert..... and when tyrion is goin to see his father in a storm of swords at the tower of the hand the red viper is meeting with mace tyrell......i think when this all comes down the lannisters will be standing alone...with the freys against everyone else..

[Jon Targaryen]

I didn't read the whole thread; it seemed to quickly degenerate into sniping over largely irrelevant details. But I did MJS's initial post and some of the first responses. It is nice as a theory but I disagree with it for the following reasons:

1. Aurane Waters - I do not think he is a "rose." He is the bastard of Driftmark. If there is anyone he would be loyal to it is Stannis. I think he is just loyal to himself and is going to become a pirate. Besides, is the sharing of a cup with Ellinor and his being alert when news of the Ironborn come in the only evidence for him to be a Tyrell player? As someone said in one of the initial replies, that is not great evidence.

2. Loras heading to Dragonstone - I could see the Tyrells trying to get Loras away from the court so that Cersei could not use him in a trial. It's very complicated but I could see it. But there is no way the Tyrells could envision: 1) Euron knowing about Dany's dragons, 2) Euron killing Balon, 3) Euron winning the kingsmoot on the basis of conquering all of Westeros, and 4) Euron deciding to attack the Shield Islands first. I mean, there has to be some backup plan to get Loras out. Otherwise, if the Tyrells wanted that, the Ironborn attack just fell into their lap. It's possible but it just seems unlikely.

3. Loras being burned - I think this happened. It fits with Loras's character. Whether there is a conspiracy or not the Shield Islands are being attacked. Loras wants to go kill Ironborn and will battle rashly to get Dragonstone out of the way. It fits that he would charge in and get burned. Plus, I don't buy that Aurane is lying and Cersei did not hear anything from anyone else. Unless Qyburn is also working for the Tyrells and silenced the news that Loras didn't get burned from getting to Cersei's ears. But Qyburn seems loyal and has reason to be loyal to Cersei.

4. Margaery's attitude in the Great Sept of Baelor - She just seemed genuinely distraught and panicked to me, not like someone acting. When she cussed out Cersei I didn't believe she was faking. Then again, she seemed distraught when Joff died and she probably had a part in that.

5. High Septon - I do not think this guy would agree to pose Margaery as being imprisoned and lie like that. He is too much of a radical, religious extremist. He would not be open to manipulation like that, imo.

6. Maragery's maidenhead - I think it is broken from riding.

There are some things, however, that I feel are unexplained or curious.
One is why Pycelle is getting the tea for Margaery. He still seems to be loyal to the Lannister cause as he called for Kevan at the end of AFFC. I don't know about this one.
Taena. I think she is either spying for Varys, the Tyrells or is out for herself. But even if she is spying for the Tyrells, I don't think the rest of the theory holds up.

All in all, a well-thought out theory that deserves praise for its construction. But like everything that begins with "Grand" and ends with "Theory" (see GUCT), I think it is doomed to be wrong. When a theory has to be called "Grand" there are usually too many events explained by one group or person, in this case the Tyrells (with some probable non-Tyrell players roped in to be Tyrell players in the theory) and in the case of GUCT, LF.

[Lord Varys]

During my reread of AFfC I came to the conclusion, that the Tyrells appear to passive during the whole volume. Cersei's incompetence becomes evident during the events immediately after Tywin's death. Jaime and Kevan refusing her as hand, the whole affair around the new Master of Coin, and then her buring the Tower of the Hand.

A slow thinker like Jaime begins to realize that Cersei's rule is going to become a threat to the Western Alliance, Tommen and House Lannister. As the Tyrells had the reasonable ruthlessness to remove Joffrey for no other reason than to intensify the probability of a successful alliance with House Lannister, one should/must assume, that the roses are doing things to rid the realm of his paranoid Queen Regent in secret, we are not shown yet. Especially as we see everything through Cersei's eye, which sees pretty much nothing of the things that were really going on.

But a Grand Tyrell Conspiracy is not likely. Margaery appears to be in real danger - although I think she is in a better position than Cersei, because it's evident, that her relatives (and Tommen) are not about to forsake her. Farther, she's not accused of murder.

[Ser Spidey]

I was just wondering how many people would have thought of maidenhood-breaking riding if it hadn't been mentioned in the book.

[Daena the Defiant]

[quote name='Ser Spider' post='1165497' date='Dec 25 2007, 11.58']I was just wondering how many people would have thought of maidenhood-breaking riding if it hadn't been mentioned in the book.[/quote]

Probably all the female readers.

[size=1](mine broke while playing field hockey, for example).[/size]

[Ser Spidey]

[quote name='Daena the Defiant' post='1165557' date='Dec 25 2007, 20.33']Probably all the female readers.

[size=1](mine broke while playing field hockey, for example).[/size][/quote]
Ouch!

It just seemed odd to me. I guess riding could do it, but it's not that common nowadays. And I really never heard of it being broken by anyting else than c**k, hand, vib or gynochologist (not sure about the spelling).

[Daena the Defiant]

[quote name='Ser Spider' post='1165569' date='Dec 25 2007, 15.00']Ouch!

It just seemed odd to me. I guess riding could do it, but it's not that common nowadays. And I really never heard of it being broken by anyting else than c**k, hand, vib or gyno... (not sure about the spelling).[/quote]


Well, they break all the time without sexual contact (or quasi-sexual contact) because adolescent girls are much more athletic and physically active than they were a few generations ago.

[size=1](My sister's daughter broke hers doing a tumble at cheer-leading practice also...at a cheer-leading meet.)[/size]

[Daena the Defiant]

-delete duplicate post

[Ran]

Yes, the horse-riding thing was not a shocking idea to me, having read (and heard) about this before.

[a_homeless_harpy]

[quote]But a Grand Tyrell Conspiracy is not likely. Margaery appears to be in real danger - although I think she is in a better position than Cersei, because it's evident, that her relatives (and Tommen) are not about to forsake her. Farther, she's not accused of murder.[/quote]

Behind a conspiracy we need a good, imaginative, broad mind. Show me that mind between the Tyrells. Olenna is the closest thing, but still she needed Littlefinger's little scheme to arrange Joffrey's strangling. I think it's Littlefinger's doing (imprisonment of Cersei and her weak position) as he explained to Sansa in AFfC. The Tyrells are only pawns.

[quote]Yes, the horse-riding thing was not a shocking idea to me, having read (and heard) about this before.[/quote]

It is known. Also ask any ballerina.

[Ser Spidey]

I was just wondering, if Cersei hadn't mentioned it, would there be anyone who would, in a thread called 'Is Margaery still a maiden?', have said 'Well, she could have broke her hymen while horse-riding'.