Grand Tyrell Conspiracy Theory

[BrainFireBob]

As to whoever mentioned elementary school sex-

Yes, 12 year olds can be capable. 12 year olds are in elementary schools. So can SOME 11 year olds. ALSO in elementary school.

This is NOT identifiable with SECOND GRADERS having sex WITH EACH OTHER.

Need I mention those statistics refer to the former, and not the latter?

Cases where girls younger than that are having sex, if you actually read the statistics, it is with an older child who IS that age. And really, since these have come up so people aren't flinching, typically under 12 it's a matter of oral sex being done between kids. Because girls are told they're an adult for doing it via pop culture, and absentee parenting. ie, they think sexual relations of any stripe=having a relationship. Not sexual relations=no relationship. And no one's telling them different.

Makes me want to smash things.

Anyway, big leap, there.

And the erections gotten by kids "in playgroup", etc., are/should be involuntary, ie, they just happen. Hence, NOT INDUCEABLE. Puberty allows them to be induced for men, thanks. And allows the man to achieve orgasm. And of course, it'll depend on the legal definition of intercourse in Westeros.

[Arakano]

And the erections gotten by kids "in playgroup", etc., are/should be involuntary, ie, they just happen. Hence, NOT INDUCEABLE. Puberty allows them to be induced for men, thanks. And allows the man to achieve orgasm. And of course, it'll depend on the legal definition of intercourse in Westeros.

[Greyman]

Kindergarten??

[corbaekin]

Kinder, child, garten, garden. Child-garden. Usually 5 year olds.

..I say, in case it's the definition that's the issue. Otherwise, yes, small children can obtain erections. However, as I've said, it's less important that they would and more important that Cersei wishes a witness that the marriage was not consumnated.

[TLL17]

This is in reply to a comment made by TheMalcolm in regard to the High Septon and his possible collusion with the Tyrell's in Le Grand Tyrell Conspiracy Theory.

On why the High Septon is not a religious zealot, according to Malcolm:

Him: "Being a politician means doing some evil things to achieve your ultimate goal. I don't think it's appropriate to a zealot."

Me: I'm sorry, but this is WRONG. Pol Pot, Mao, Hitler, Stalin, Lenin, Osama Bin-Ladin (yes, he is a politician), and that's just the 20th century. Salafis in Saudi Arabia have proven quite willing to deal with oil-crazed Westerners in the interests of profit.

Religion and Politics

Him: "Any trade will harm an Idea. A fanatic never trades, it's main point which distincts him from just a faithful person."

Me: Oh really? That depends on the trade, the act itself.

Hitler was a fanatic hater of Slavs and Communists, but he accepted divying up Poland with the Soviet Union before invading it. The Communist KGP and the Nazis cooperating in elections and illegal "extracuricularr " to bring down the Social Democrats in Weimar. Lenin was a fanatical Communist who still initiated the New Economic Policy in the 1920s (NEP). Lenin also rejected the Menshevik's who argued that Russia had to go through a gradual change to full-blown capitalism before becoming a socialist paradise a la Marx's original argument. And what of Robesperrie and the Committee of Public Safety? Or we could go back to the good old days of the Thirty Year's War, when political backstabbing and religious zealotry by fanatical Catholics and Protestants went hand in hand as Germany was bled dry.

Just because some of these examples are secular ideologies, that doesn't mean the views of zealouts were any different to those leaders than religious extremism. Those are Ideas, too. A secular ideology can be a secular religion.

Zealots will make expedient compromises to further their own ultimate ends in the political sphere. Such as rearming the Faith and bringing it to predominance over secular authorities as Pope Gregory IX versus the Holy Roman Emperor.

On the topic of definitions, politicians may "do some evil things to achieve some ends," but that is not a sufficient definition of a politician. Furthermore, it may not even be a necessary condition. It may be possible to have a politician that does not do evil things to acheive some ends. Not very likely, but possible:).

[Seanovan]

A few things I'd like to add:

I don't know if this is true in GRRM's world, but in real life, no degree of physical examination can definitively determine that a woman is a virgin.

The biggest hole in the theory IMO is Marge's arrest.

The long post really shows how much Cersei trusts people she hardly knows with all sorts of plots that could lead to her downfall if they were exposed. I don't think Cersei's downfall needed any help from the Tyrells.

Edit - Just realized I posted after reading just the first page. Apologies for any redundancy.

[Michael Jon Snow]

The biggest hole in the theory IMO is Marge's arrest.

[A wilding]

The problem with Margaery's arrest is that it has happened (and I note that she remains under arrest even after Cersei has also been arrested). The people in KL regard this arrest as a fact, and the news of it has been sent all over Westeros.

Whatever happens in the future Margaery has been badly damaged by this. Suppose Cersei is tried and found guilty, Margaery is acquitted, and Kevan, the Tyrells and the High Septon all publicly shake hands and express mutual esteem. There will still be for ever more a question mark against Margaery, a suspicion that it was convenient for all concerned to cover up her adultery. At any time in the future when Tyrell power is weak the accusations against her could be revived or fresh ones made.

That is one of the main reasons why I personally doubt a Tyrell masterplan that included Margaery being arrested.

[Michael Jon Snow]

If the High Septon comes out and publicly apologizes for the whole situation and thanks Margery for her help in securing the peace of the Kingdoms and removing the Evil Queen Cersei from power, any bad press could be quickly erased by good. I think that the people of KL and certainly all of Marge's supporters don't believe the accusations against Marge and it won't take much to set things right.

And I didn't say that this was a Tyrell Master plan that was conceived from the beginning and then executed to perfection. I think that the Tyrells wanted to remove Cersei from power and took advantage of the situations that presented themselves. I think that when Marge went to the temple that morning she expected to be accused, examined and released. Up until Osney’s confession of Cersei’s other crimes, Marge et al likely didn’t know the extent of what Cersei had done. Exposing her plots against Marge would weaken Cersei In public opinion (both common and noble) enough to accomplish the Tyrell goal. When Osney confessed to adultery with Cersei and then to killing the former High Septon, the whole thing changed and that is when I think Marge volunteered to help the High Septon bu pretending to be his prisoner.

Its all about who knew what when. I went through in detail who knew what and when and how that could motivate their decisions and their actions.

[A wilding]

It does seem to me though that with this scenario Margaery and the High Septon took things a little far. If all they were aiming to do was to get Cersei to go to the Great Sept so that the High Septon would be able to arrest her, then why put Margaery in a cell dressed only in a shift and why not release her the instant Cersei was in custody?

I suppose putting Margaery in a cell could be argued to have been solely for the purpose of getting Cersei to say that only a Kingsguard can fight for a queen in a trial by combat, but it seems a an extreme way of going about it. They could just argue in court that it was the rule anyway, or even outright claim that Cersei had said so when she had not. It would also require Margaery to be a first rate actress to pull the charade of being an angry prisoner off so well.

[wvlr]

When Osney confessed to adultery with Cersei and then to killing the former High Septon

[Ealasaid]

Well.

I think the Grand Tyrell Conspiracy is well thought out and well argued. It harkens back to the supper Sansa attended when the Tyrells first came to town after the KL battle. The Queen of Thornes flat out says her "oaf" of a son wants a Tyrell grandson on the Iron Throne. They know enough to have Butterbumps yell that God Awful Song whilst grilling Sansa about Joffrey, et al. The Tyrells are not stupid. Someone planted that poisonous hairnet with Sansa and many threads posted on the Board have laid the plucking of the gem from Sansa's hairnet at the Queen of Thornes feet and the actual poisoning of Joff's cup at Garlan's feet. Margaery was hardly grief stricken at his death. She didn't seem too surprised either. They got Joff out of the way, why not a plot to get rid of Cersei. I don't think it's out of the realm of possiblity that the Tyrells have their own little birds in play.

As repeatedly pointed out, Taena Merryweather is simply too conveninent a source, and she does not allow her son to be hauled to KL although Cersei mentions it at least twice. I thought it odd Cersiei did not insist. I thought she was helping Cersei along with her paranoia and stupid plotting just a bit too much, while getting informaiton out of Cersei to be loyal to Cersei.

I found it interesting too that Magraery was one trumpeting the infomation about the attack on the Shield Islands. She knows a lot - but I haven't been able to figure out how she does it. She could have a raven master with her, but she's very well informed of what is going on.

Loras stepping up to attack Storms End is entirely in keeping with his character. Both for Renley and the fact he's a hot head. I think Margaery plays into this with a half-hearted plea for him to stop (or maybe she does sense she needs him...). And he wasn't interested in the information that Jaime was giving to him about the deeds of other WC who weren't "heroes," as pointed out by many. In many ways Loras is a ditz, beautiful, strong, splendid with swords, but a ditz.

The fact that Aurane Waters takes off once Cersei is arrested seemed to lend credence that he was a Tyrell loyalist. What had he done otherwise to make scamper? Of course, it could be he is an opportunist and got while the getting is good. But he almost seemed to be an attractive plant to distract Cersei.

But that is what is so good about this theory, it's possible....and also possible that GRRM has given us just enough to get it wrong. He's always doing that. But I like the theory. I'm a bit surprised that this is the theory that has stirred up so much ire.

Maybe I should start a thread that Aegon and Jon Snow were switched at birth.....

[A wilding]

I don't think that anyone is disputing that the Tyrells planned to murder Joffrey and marry Margaery to Tommen instead. Or that they want to gain as much power and influence as possible with the eventual aim of having King Tommen ruling but dominated by his wife Margaery.

I agree it is interesting that the news of the attack on the Shield Islands appeared to go to Margaery rather than to Cersei. It may well mean that Pycelle was moving towards the Tully camp. This does not seem to fit into a Tully conspiracy very well though - why alert Cersei that Margaery has this information channel? Cersei did not pick up on it, but she might have done.

Lady Merryweather is clearly up to something, but it is at least as likely that she works for Varys and her orders were to cause maximum disruption in KL, especially as she tells Cersei that titbit about the QoT having House Gardener gold coins.

I don't see the Merryweathers or Aurane Waters working for the Tyrells though, because they fled KL at the end of AFfC. If they had stayed, they would have had a working majority on the Small Council, and could have used that to direct events, perhaps to make Mace Tully Hand for example.

[Michael Jon Snow]

If the Tyrells act overtly to seize power, they will make enemies of the Lannister bannermen, and many of the other Great Houses. They need to rise to power as the next best thing when Cersei makes a fool of herself.

Even with a majority on the Council, they could not simply impose their will against Cersei’s or they would have a fight on their hands that they didn’t need.

[A wilding]

Well it is all very vague and unsatisfactory, because we are looking at events through the veil of Cersei's paranoia, but at the end of AFfC the Small Council apparently consists of just Swyft and Pycelle. With Cersei imprisoned, they have apparently taken events into their own hands and have written to Kevan to ask him to become Hand.

So if the Merryweathers and Aurane Waters had not fled, the Small Council at this time would have consisted of Aurane, Lord Merryweather, Swyft and Pycelle. Given Swyft is by all accounts a fool, and that Pycelle had become seriously disenchanted with Cersei, then they would certainly have had scope to influence events in favour of the Tyrells had they wished. Perhaps asking Mace Tully to become Hand might have been a step too far and alienated the Lannisters, but it would seem pointless to abandon the possible advantages by flight, when there would be little for them to fear.

[Michael Jon Snow]

Waters had to flee to take the fleet south to defend Highgarden. The Merryweathers had to flee because they knew to much. Thier rise to power was clearly driven by Cersei's madness and everyone would assume them to be Cersei's allies. With Cersei in jail, their apparent benefactor is gone, and if they remained, it would indicate to anyone paying attention that they are not Cersei's people.

Basically, their cover is that they are close friends of Cersei. That cover is blown if they don't behave like close allies of Cersei and a close ally of Cersei would leave town, therefore they must leave town.

They could return to KL with Mace and have Mace claim to have found them fleeing King’s Landing and forced them back to KL to sort out the situation. That would bring them back into the Tyrell camp (as reluctant hostages of the Tyrells) Once they have testified at Carsei’s trial and everything has blown over they can slip back to their home “in disgrace†to whatever reward Olena offered them.

I agree that the last we see of KL is through a very distorted veil and that we have to be careful what we believe.

[A Bengali Menace]

I don't know if this is true in GRRM's world, but in real life, no degree of physical examination can definitively determine that a woman is a virgin.

[Lyanna Stark-Targaryen]

Hmmmm, very well thought out. The Tyrells just seem sneaky to me. I can certainly see them doing that. Good work!

[Ealasaid]

In medieval times, and in medieval-minded societies (like current Muslim Africa), this wouldn't matter. A lack of hymen for an unmarried young female = slattern, regardless of physiological facts or justice.

[Michael Jon Snow]

Which gets back to my original claim that Marge's hymen is still intact, thus proving Osneys accusations false, thus the motive to torture Osney.

I think Marge faked being a prisoner to trap Cersei.