Why did Balon Greyjoy wait so long to start his rebellion?

[Nezzer]

Err, no, it wasn't. There were two lannister armies there, one of them, Stafford's, in close proximity to Lannisport, which has a strong well drilled city watch.

Robb sneaking past the Golden Tooth, and then surprising Stafford, was a massive shock to everyone and so Balon would be dumb to count on it, or expect it would be likely.

IIRC Robb had already defeated Stafford when Balon crowned himself. That battle is very early in ACoK, and after it, the Westerlands were completely unprotected.

[Chaircat Meow]

IIRC Robb had already defeated Stafford when Balon crowned himself. That battle is very early in ACoK, and after it, the Westerlands were completely unprotected.

He gets the offer from Theon, and launches the attack, before news comes of the battle.

[TalalOfDorne]

I wasn't joking merely exaggerating. I don't think Balon is dumb, and I think his plan had some merits, probably as many, if not considerably more, than the attack Casterly Rock plan. Probably not as many as the 'just don't be a dick and join the war plan,' admittedly.

I don't like all the constant bashing for being stupid, and especially the imputation the plot is poking through the text so to speak, in that no one would ever be that dumb.

Just annoys me tbh.

Yes he could have stayed out of the war, but he wanted independence. And renellion does have its sacrifices.

I think most Balon bashing could be attributed to the fact that he attacked the beloved Starks home.

The plan and how it was carried out was not so bad, but the idea that the Iron Throne would recognize his crown for attacking the North is a pretty silly one.

It didnt. Which is why attacking the Lannisters home land IMO might have been a bigger mistake, politicaly that is .

[Frey Pie]

I don't know why people assume Rodrick would be able to defeat Vic at the Moat. He raised only 2,000 men and didn't even deal with Dagmar successfully. How would he have fared if he tried to dislodge Vicky or Asha? Not well in my opinion.

Of course, in some ways a hit on WF like Theon did was a spectacular move, it was just his need to hold onto his gains with no support that doomed him.

Theons actions weren't part of the plan though. Add Ramsay to Rodrik and that 2600. Add in the few thousands that Stannis and Roose raise. You know aswel as I do that Rodriks host was raised from a select part of the North. Would Manderly and Dustin not raise there men with enemies at the doorstep?! Asha has too few men. Vic is in a spot which isn't easily defensible from the North

And how well should the non- archer or cavalry armies of the iron born do in a set battle? Not well. Not to mention the bog devils

In any case the iron born don't have the numbers to hold a land half the size of South America

[Chaircat Meow]

I think most Balon bashing could be attributed to the fact that he attacked the beloved Starks home.

Yea, this is true.

[Chaircat Meow]

Theons actions weren't part of the plan though. Add Ramsay to Rodrik and that 2600. Add in the few thousands that Stannis and Roose raise. You know aswel as I do that Rodriks host was raised from a select part of the North. Would Manderly and Dustin not raise there men with enemies at the doorstep?! Asha has too few men. Vic is in a spot which isn't easily defensible from the North

And how well should the non- archer or cavalry armies of the iron born do in a set battle? Not well. Not to mention the bog devils

In any case the iron born don't have the numbers to hold a land half the size of South America

I'm not sure I see the problem though. Yea, it could all end in disaster but if Vicky wins against Rodrick and his levies then you've knocked out most of the men and leadership left in the north.

If it all goes wrong you can just leg it (north still has no fleet) with no immediate repercussions.

[Nezzer]

He gets the offer from Theon, and launches the attack, before news comes of the battle.

But at least he knew Robb was invading the Westerlands. He knew the Lannisters would be busy with Robb. Should Robb be defeated, Balon could just sail back to the Iron Islands and only then invade the North. It's a much better plan. And it's not like Balon had only a few hundred men, he had thousands. He could have taken Lannisport easily from the sea and hold the city against Staffords army if Robb had lost the battle.

[King Aerys the Just]

Probably. But Vicky must have had 10,000 men or so, if the iron fleet was at the Moat, so he could have won a battle against the Manderly and Dustin levies.

Perhaps if he had that many, I suppose. Such a battle should have been the make-or-break moment of Balon's campaign then I guess; that he planned on luring as much of the Stark power out to battle as possible by blocking the Moat (and thus cutting Robb off from reinforcements) and then try destroying them in a large battle were he would have a defender's advantage, and then hope that a great enough victory there could cripple the Northern military enough for him to start sending his full strength inland and start actually occupying more than just a small Motte-castle by the coast.

[Frey Pie]

Yes he could have stayed out of the war, but he wanted independence. And renellion does have its sacrifices.

I think most Balon bashing could be attributed to the fact that he attacked the beloved Starks home.

It didnt. Which is why attacking the Lannisters home land IMO might have been a bigger mistake, politicaly that is .

Why couldn't he be independent and not attack anyone?

I'm one of the most avid stark supporters around and proud of it. But that's in no way the reason why I dislike Balon. I dislike him for how he treats Theon and the way he brought back a culture where rape and slavery is the norm

[Frey Pie]

I'm not sure I see the problem though. Yea, it could all end in disaster but if Vicky wins against Rodrick and his levies then you've knocked out most of the men and leadership left in the north.

If it all goes wrong you can just leg it (north still has no fleet) with no immediate repercussions.

Ha and how is this any different if he attacks the west? At this point Tywin is cut off from home and has just 20000 men. Robb has about 15000 North men and the river lands- 11000 at the fords. Tywin has these to face and 100000 Renly lovers and Stannis the mannis. Did Balon really say-" Ya Tywins still going to win so I better not attack his place and become rich because hel get me"

Not likely. As I said his plan had merits but IMHO it was purely payback and a screw you Ned!!

Even if Vic wins its doomed. There's not enough of them to hold the North, especially when they're making slaves and introducing a new religion. And say the forces are even- would you not take a mixed force over an all infantry?

[Lion of Judah]

Was Balon's idea really that good though? The premise of the plan was basically stealing the castle while the master is gone. He could get all the plunder he desired, but I don't see how he achieves independence by those actions. No matter what he did the Iron Born can't hold the North. So what did his plan gain other than assisting the Lannisters without getting any sort of terms whatsoever? He helped the Lannisters and didn't get a thank you.

[Chaircat Meow]

But at least he knew Robb was invading the Westerlands. He knew the Lannisters would be busy with Robb. Should Robb be defeated, Balon could just sail back to the Iron Islands and only then invade the North. It's a much better plan. And it's not like Balon had only a few hundred men, he had thousands. He could have taken Lannisport easily from the sea and hold the city against Staffords army if Robb had lost the battle.

He didn't know he was going to get past the Golden Tooth, which is a well defended pass and a strategic choke point. He can't coordinate time wise with Robb. Say Robb gets repulsed by the 3-4,000 men guarding the pass; then Balon still has to face Stafford.

Also he is much more likely to be allowed to keep shit in the north (even if tacitly) because it is poorer. the westerlands has loads of gold which makes a (re-) conquest of it easy in the sense it is self sustaining.

[Dagon Greyjoy]

Cause Balon the Bold ain't Balon the Bright. Had he had any smarts to him at all, he woulda brokered an alliance with the Targaryen loyalists (Dorne and the Reach) and launched his war in the months immediately after Robert's rebellion: He had four children: His heir he could have betrothed to Marge Tyrell, and Asha coulda been betrothed to either Quentyn or Trystane Martell. The Iron Islands wanted their independence, Dorne and the Tyrells wanted the dragons back.

With the Arbor fleet on his side and the Westerlands fleet torched at Lannisport, Balon Greyjoy would have enjoyed absolute dominion over the seas: He could have smashed Stannis at Dragonstone with impunity and blockaded King's Landing, with the Reachmen sieging it from land and the Dornish unseating boy Renly from Storm's End. At this point it's a matter of bringing the Targaryen children from exile for the Dornish and Reachmen to put in the throne as puppets and manipulate as they saw fit.

Instead, he waited six whole years, gallantly waiting for his enemies to rebuild his host and for King Robert to secure the loyalty of the Arbor Fleet *facepalm*.

Then let's consider Balon's second rebelion: He wants independence, territorial expansion, and an excuse to get rid of Theon as heir so he can crown Asha after'im. The Lannisters hold the Iron Throne, but the Lannister army is completely trapped between Stannis Baratheon (who threatens King's Landing by sea) Renly Baratheon (who marches to King's Landing by land) and Robb Stark, who's shaving the Lion in the Riverlands and splitting his force to raid the Westerlands.

At this point Balon can invade the Westerlands, pillage Lannisport and lay siege to the Rock, secure in his knowledge that Tywin can't march to relieve his home because King's Landing and his dynasty are fucked if he does. If Tywin doesn't abandon Joff and Cersei to defend the Westerlands, the Rock is toast: He can make Theon Lord of Casterly KrakenRock, leaving the Iron Islands for Asha. If Tywin does march to relieve the Westerlands,,, Well, he just plain can't. Even if Robb Stark failed to cross into the Westerlands, he sure could block Tywin's path long enough for King's Landing to fall to either Baratheon. At this point, whoever won the war would march on the Westerlands. The Ironborn would only need to hole up in whichever castles they managed to seize and wait for Tywin's inevitable downfall. Should the situation get dire or the conquest of the Rock look at all uncertain, offer Theon's hand in marriage to Arianne Martell, bringing the Dornish into the anti-Lannister fold (and getting rid of Theon, who would become consort to the future Princess of Dorne).

Instead, Balon singlehandedly chooses to destroy the secessionist alliance by invading the North, a much poorer catch than the Westerlands. Balon was no political or military mastermind.

[Frey Pie]

Iron born strength is at sea- play to that strength

[TalalOfDorne]

Why couldn't he be independent and not attack anyone?

Revenge? Yes I know most people would think that its a stupid reason, but his enemies are fighting a war, and they left their kingdom defenseless. I think it would be a golden opportunity to not only get revenge, but to re-expand the kingdom. Remember that the Ironborn used to rule parts if the North, Riverlands, and even the Reach. So its not unlikely that he would consider these lands as part of the Ironborns kingdom.

[Frey Pie]

Was Balon's idea really that good though? The premise of the plan was basically stealing the castle while the master is gone. He could get all the plunder he desired, but I don't see how he achieves independence by those actions. No matter what he did the Iron Born can't hold the North. So what did his plan gain other than assisting the Lannisters without getting any sort of terms whatsoever? He helped the Lannisters and didn't get a thank you.

Tywin basically spells this out for us. And he had two different people lined up to claim the North- Balon didn't get a mention. As iv said Balons plan wasn't a good one because it was always going to fail. Sitting at home and raiding fishing villages up and down the west coast would have been just fine

[Chaircat Meow]

Perhaps if he had that many, I suppose. Such a battle should have been the make-or-break moment of Balon's campaign then I guess; that he planned on luring as much of the Stark power out to battle as possible by blocking the Moat (and thus cutting Robb off from reinforcements) and then try destroying them in a large battle were he would have a defender's advantage, and then hope that a great enough victory there could cripple the Northern military enough for him to start sending his full strength inland and start actually occupying more than just a small Motte-castle by the coast.

His plans are not outlined in great detail in the book, so it is hard to say.

I always imagined something like this was in his mind. The remaining northmen would be pulled out of the interior to retake coastal assets and then after defeating them there the ironborn could take more of the country, and maybe feed in some more population from the isles as settlers and garrisons.

Some of this could be my imagination though. I don't think it is unreasonable to assume Balon and Asha had thought things through to a greater extent than we see.

[Frey Pie]

Revenge? Yes I know most people would think that its a stupid reason, but his enemies are fighting a war, and they left their kingdom defenseless. I think it would be a golden opportunity to not only get revenge, but to re-expand the kingdom. Remember that the Ironborn used to rule parts if the North, Riverlands, and even the Reach. So its not unlikely that he would consider these lands as part of the Ironborns kingdom.

Because revenge doesn't suit his supposed goal- independence.

There is a difference between the North and there former kingdom. The North is hundreds of miles away. It's also far far bigger then any of there former holdings so added to the distance I can't see how they can hold it. Also the North is by and large very deducted to their trees, so how well will the drowned god be received by them? Not at all. So all in all I can only see the iron born holding a small sector of the north. Was this his goal? No. Could he have done the same elsewhere? Yes. Was he ever going to be allowed keep the north no matter who won the throne? Categorically no and this is where his operation was doomed. Obviously Robb would want it back and we know for a fact both Tywin and Stannis wanted it. I can't see Renly bargaining with Balon either. So he makes enemies everywhere

[Chaircat Meow]

Loads of people in the series fight for revenge and pride too. Robb, Dany, the Dornish want to, the list goes on.

Wanting revenge and allowing this to factor into your plans is quite normal.

And whatever the reasons Tywin just got his fleet burned and did shit in the last Greyjoy rebellion. So Balon was not angry with him. Kind of tragic that The Ned was only doing his duty to the king, and defending the realm from invaders by accompanying Robert to Pyke, but his house got almost destroyed for it. Tywin murdered two children to get into Robert's good books, it worked like crazy and he never suffered repercussions from Dorne. Salient case of virtue not getting its rewards.

[Frey Pie]

His plans are not outlined in great detail in the book, so it is hard to say.

I always imagined something like this was in his mind. The remaining northmen would be pulled out of the interior to retake coastal assets and then after defeating them there the ironborn could take more of the country, and maybe feed in some more population from the isles as settlers and garrisons.

Some of this could be my imagination though. I don't think it is unreasonable to assume Balon and Asha had thought things through to a greater extent than we see.

Balon wasn't interested in colonies only getting more slaves and revenge- seems clear to me

Now Asha was on the ball. Her plan with sea dragon point has great potential if only it was backed. Even better if Bear Island was taken. Overnight the iron born have more land and the possibility to increase their numbers