Why did Balon Greyjoy wait so long to start his rebellion?

[Chaircat Meow]

Or it might be the fact, had his son not disobeyed orders, all he would have gotten out of his brilliant plan is turnips and rocks.

Why do people keep using this absurd argument. Yes, the north is poor, so are the iron islands though. Conquests give Balon more wealth, peasants, thralls, farmlands, resources that can be traded (timber) etc.

The north aren't supporting an army of 20,000 knights, men-at-arms etc on an economy with nothing there at all.

[Jasta11]

Why do people keep using this absurd argument. Yes, the north is poor, so are the iron islands though. Conquests give Balon more wealth, peasants, thralls, farmlands, resources that can be traded (timber) etc.

The north aren't supporting an army of 20,000 knights, men-at-arms etc on an economy with nothing there at all.

And where are all these glorious conquests come Feast (which is, what, a full year after Balon crowns himself king?). Because as far as we know, the Ironborn have ''conquered'' Deepwood Motte, Moat Caitlin and parts of the western coast before being mostly bogged down (eh) by the Crannogmen and other resistance. We get (IIRC) no mention of anything valuable that they have taken, beyond Winterfell which wasn't in the plan, and Asha basically says the attacks got them nothing at the Kingsmoot, yes I know she's biased but still. I honestly doubt the guy who rebelled against a united Westeros (one ruled by warrior king, no less) has anything close to a long-term plan, honestly. He did it out of spite for the Starks and hoped for less resistance than the Ironborn got. Well, that's not exactly brilliant as far as plans go.

[Jasta11]

Double post, pay no mind.

[Chaircat Meow]

And where are all these glorious conquests come Feast (which is, what, a full year after Balon crowns himself king?). Because as far as we know, the Ironborn have ''conquered'' Deepwood Motte, Moat Caitlin and parts of the western coast before being mostly bogged down (eh) by the Crannogmen and other resistance. We get (IIRC) no mention of anything valuable that they have taken, beyond Winterfell which wasn't in the plan, and Asha basically says the attacks got them nothing at the Kingsmoot, yes I know she's biased but still. I honestly doubt the guy who rebelled against a united Westeros (one ruled by warrior king, no less) has anything close to a long-term plan, honestly. He did it out of spite for the Starks and hoped for less resistance than the Ironborn got. Well, that's not exactly brilliant as far as plans go.

It is pretty clear they were planning to slowly move in, across the country, perhaps once the outlying positions they captured had beaten off an assault. This is hinted at in Balon's comments to Theon about WF alone outlasting a year. Probably optimistic that, but they planned to make further inroads.

[unSonofStannis]

Because he was afraid of King Robert Baratheon. Ours is the Fury!

[Jasta11]

It is pretty clear they were planning to slowly move in, across the country, perhaps once the outlying positions they captured had beaten off an assault. This is hinted at in Balon's comments to Theon about WF alone outlasting a year. Probably optimistic that, but they planned to make further inroads.

Over several years in an ever-changing situation? With the Ironborn being far more used to sea warfare? And with winter coming? Some plan.

Tywin pretty much sums it up himself. Whatever Balon can take, he will never be able to hold. His plan is short-sighted. He wants to piss off the Starks, so he attacks them, damn the other options. I'm pretty damn sure that this is his train of thought, and that he really hasn't thought his plans throught. The story shows no sign of it, at any rate, and Martin usually shows when a player has a better hand than we think.

[Morienthar]

Because he was thick,but not thick enough to not realize he doesn't have the numbers to hold anything.

[Chaircat Meow]

Over several years in an ever-changing situation? With the Ironborn being far more used to sea warfare? And with winter coming? Some plan.

Tywin pretty much sums it up himself. Whatever Balon can take, he will never be able to hold. His plan is short-sighted. He wants to piss off the Starks, so he attacks them, damn the other options. I'm pretty damn sure that this is his train of thought, and that he really hasn't thought his plans throught. The story shows no sign of it, at any rate, and Martin usually shows when a player has a better hand than we think.

Balon would have a hard job holding anything, north or west. And Tywin has been wrong before.

Also if you read the relevant Theon chapters he clearly did do some strategic thinking, about the relative merits of the western design, about the lack of northern defences, exploitation of chokepoints, and he clearly planned to feed more forces in and advance across the country as time went by, something which got put on the back burner by his death and the kingsmoot.

[Jasta11]

Balon would have a hard job holding anything, north or west. And Tywin has been wrong before.

Also if you read the relevant Theon chapters he clearly did do some strategic thinking, about the relative merits of the western design, about the lack of northern defences, exploitation of chokepoints, and he clearly planned to feed more forces in and advance across the country as time went by, something which got put on the back burner by his death and the kingsmoot.

That's basic stuff, but it seems they advanced very slowly. While Robb and Tywin are practically dancing around each other down south, the Ironborn take a few strongholds and then basically sit there for what we know, until Balon gets offed. They're in the North, winter is fast approaching, there is no time to waste, they must take a big target. Winterfell, White Harbor, a solid foothold from which to last years if they want their enterprise to actually go anywhere. Not in 1-2 years, they need that now. But, they attacked a mostly barren region with little ressources and people, a place that's way too big to hold for their meager numbers and doesn't hold enough plunder to justify such a large scale raid. Geographically, it seems most of the good stuff about the North is east of Winterfell. But it seems such things do not concern Balon ''Me Smash'' Greyjoy.

[Chaircat Meow]

That's basic stuff, but it seems they advanced very slowly. While Robb and Tywin are practically dancing around each other down south, the Ironborn take a few strongholds and then basically sit there for what we know, until Balon gets offed. They're in the North, winter is fast approaching, there is no time to waste, they must take a big target. Winterfell, White Harbor, a solid foothold from which to last years if they want their enterprise to actually go anywhere. Not in 1-2 years, they need that now. But, they attacked a mostly barren region with little ressources and people, a place that's way too big to hold for their meager numbers and doesn't hold enough plunder to justify such a large scale raid. Geographically, it seems most of the good stuff about the North is east of Winterfell. But it seems such things do not concern Balon ''Me Smash'' Greyjoy.

They weren't there that long, they moved in half way through Clash and left the Moat for the kingsmoot half way through Storm. In that time Robb went west (which he started doing before Balon sailed) and then came back and had just reached the Twins.

[Frey Pie]

Balon would have a hard job holding anything, north or west. And Tywin has been wrong before.

Also if you read the relevant Theon chapters he clearly did do some strategic thinking, about the relative merits of the western design, about the lack of northern defences, exploitation of chokepoints, and he clearly planned to feed more forces in and advance across the country as time went by, something which got put on the back burner by his death and the kingsmoot.

He can easily do the same in the west. Don't take Lannisport for now. Write back to robb and demand his help. Take down Stafford- really shouldn't be too hard and agree to take the Gt from east and west with robb. Garrison this and take the southerly pass also. Then start your raiding. Basically what I'm saying is all the pros of attacking the North can be applied to the west also- lack of leaders, disorganised defences, strategic choke points etc. major difference for me is the west is far smaller and far closer to there hq and we both no operations closer to home are easier to manage

Once again though he should have stayed at home and raided everywhere with no banners and hence get no blame if he thinks the winner is too strong to defy

Bran while your thoughts are logical Balon doesn't seen to work on logic, but passion and pride instead. Looking at his past and his words and ways I find it highly unlikely he thought as far ahead as you. Was it not for Theon and Ramsay a month into his invasion he would have held the moat alone

[The Fallen]

` At the kingsmoot Asha states that the old ways of the ironborn were over. That Balon and his old ways had brought them nothing but destruction, the raping of their wives and daughters and the death of their sons.

This is Balon's biggest weakness. He had the option to attack the westerlands along with Robb and essentially ally himself with the North and the Riverlands as well as having his own kingdom.

Or he could follow the old ways and try to take the North from the rest of the seven kingdoms. Even if the ironborn had succeeded in capturing the north it would have ended in a repeat of his.first rebellion, with the might of the remaining kingdoms taking it back.

This is why I find Balon to be, at best, delusional and, at worst, idiotic.

[Frey Pie]

` At the kingsmoot Asha states that the old ways of the ironborn were over. That Balon and his old ways had brought them nothing but destruction, the raping of their wives and daughters and the death of their sons.

This is Balon's biggest weakness. He had the option to attack the westerlands along with Robb and essentially ally himself with the North and the Riverlands as well as having his own kingdom.

Or he could follow the old ways and try to take the North from the rest of the seven kingdoms. Even if the ironborn had succeeded in capturing the north it would have ended in a repeat of his.first rebellion, with the might of the remaining kingdoms taking it back.

This is why I find Balon to be, at best, delusional and, at worst, idiotic.

And this is why I completely agree with you!

[Usrnmhsnomning]

` At the kingsmoot Asha states that the old ways of the ironborn were over. That Balon and his old ways had brought them nothing but destruction, the raping of their wives and daughters and the death of their sons.

This is Balon's biggest weakness. He had the option to attack the westerlands along with Robb and essentially ally himself with the North and the Riverlands as well as having his own kingdom.

Or he could follow the old ways and try to take the North from the rest of the seven kingdoms. Even if the ironborn had succeeded in capturing the north it would have ended in a repeat of his.first rebellion, with the might of the remaining kingdoms taking it back.

This is why I find Balon to be, at best, delusional and, at worst, idiotic.

Too right. Balon made a horrible move, and was outright ignored when he tried to sue for peace. The Ironborn had absolutely no way to hold the North against itself, never mind the rest of the 7 kingdoms.

[Dagon Greyjoy]

In retrospect Balon's plan was sound-ish because the Tyrells join up with the Lannisters after Stannis gets murdered, but Balon didn't know none'o'that. When Balon makes the momentous choice to fight his fellow separatists rather than the Crown they were both seceding from, Tywin was caught between Robb Stark and Renly's hosts, with Stannis readying himself to blockade King's Landing. Both the Westerlands and the North were pretty much unmanned, and the Westerlands were much wealthier. Breaking Tywin would have meant independence for good. Breaking Robb Stark strengthened the throne Balon was supposed to be fighting if he wanted his precious Driftwood Crown.

Let's assume for the sake of argument that everything goes wrong in Theon's plan: Robb Stark cannot cross the Golden Tooth: The Ironborn clear the pass for them. At this point Tywin must choose: He can protect King's Landing from Renly/Stannis while he watches the wolves and the krakens turn Casterly Rock into Krakenrock or he can march to relieve his homeland while he watches Renly Baratheon put Cersei and her kids' heads on spikes. Whatever Tywin chooses, he's fucked. Let's say Tywin somehow manages to cross into the Westerlands to relieve them. Now whatever remains of Tywin's host must defeat the whole might of the Ironborn with Robb Stark at their backs: Easier said than done. Let's say Stannis kills Renly: The Tyrells can't possibly side with Stannis, but Tywin's host is way too far away.... Or back the Greyjoy/Stark/Tully alliance. House Stark wants the North and the Riverlands, the Ironborn want the Westerlands... The Tyrells want the throne: They wouldn't be the Tyrells we all know and love if they couldn't manage to put Marge Tyrell on either Robb Stark or Theon Greyjoy's bed and convince the Wolf King or the Kraken Prince that they do want to be King of the Iron Throne after all, that they've in fact wanted it all along ;).

It's quite telling that Theon Greyjoy of all people was in fact the finest Ironborn military mind of his generation (then again he was educated by Ned Stark, one of the best generals in Westeros)... And I say this as a Greyjoy fan. His original plan was sound, and even with Balon's dumbass plan he went above and beyond and took Winterfell... If he'd been given the troops, he might have actually defended it. Five hundred Ironborn warriors could hold Winterfell against 2-3 thousand Northmen, which is all the Northmen could possibly spare to retake Winterfell with the bulk of their armies south and the Ironborn invading their kingdom.

I facepalmed real hard when Asha wouldn't give Theon men. It's too far from the sea... But it's defensible and it's the fucking capital!! To put it in perspective, let's say viking Denmark invades medieval England and one of the viking princes takes Glasgow with a skeleton crew... When he asks his family for men to defend it, they tell'im: It's too far from the sea, bruh! *double facepalm*