Why did Balon Greyjoy wait so long to start his rebellion?

[Chaircat Meow]

Balon wasn't interested in colonies only getting more slaves and revenge- seems clear to me

Why are you so sure about this? if he wanted to maintain his rule over the north as a kingdom settling some ironborn there would be a logical thing to do.

I always saw Asha's plan as a less ambitious version of Balon's.

[Frey Pie]

Why are you so sure about this? if he wanted to maintain his rule over the north as a kingdom settling some ironborn there would be a logical thing to do.

I always saw Asha's plan as a less ambitious version of Balon's.

Because he never once mentions it nor does anyone else. Only Asha thinks in terms of gaining long term settlements and she gains absolutely no support for it. Ashas plan is the smart version of Balons- take what you can hope to hold and cut deals with the locals. Ashas plan isn't looked on well by others. Balon is as iron born as it gets so i doubt her idea spawned from one of his

If there was a mention of Balon moving for land and colonising then I'd say your right Bran but there isn't. He's looking for loot and vengeance

[Chaircat Meow]

Because he never once mentions it nor does anyone else. Only Asha thinks in terms of gaining long term settlements and she gains absolutely no support for it. Ashas plan is the smart version of Balons- take what you can hope to hold and cut deals with the locals

If there was a mention of Balon moving for land and colonising then I'd say your right Bran but there isn't. He's looking for loot and vengeance

He talks of founding a new kingdom does he not, i.e. occupying the north. We don't here much from Balon in text as to how he hopes to keep the north, there are just a few paragraphs. I think settlements and garrisons are a logical step we should assume he planned for. GrrM thinks detailed invasion plans would bore people.

And Asha lacks support for being totally unambitious compared to Balon. The ironborn wanted to ravage the whole land and she asked them to be content with just the stony shore (which is pretty poor).

Anyway, in sum, I assume the plan was trash and loot the place and then occupy it.

[Nezzer]

He didn't know he was going to get past the Golden Tooth, which is a well defended pass and a strategic choke point. He can't coordinate time wise with Robb. Say Robb gets repulsed by the 3-4,000 men guarding the pass; then Balon still has to face Stafford.

Also he is much more likely to be allowed to keep shit in the north (even if tacitly) because it is poorer. the westerlands has loads of gold which makes a (re-) conquest of it easy in the sense it is self sustaining.

But Stafford's army was 10,000 men strong and was made of barely trained levies. You said it yourself that Victarion probably had some 10,000 men under his command, but those were 10,000 strong warriors and not just children and old men like Stafford had. Victarion could have taken Lannisport from the sea without much resistance. Even if Stafford defeated Robb, Victarion wouldn't have much difficulty defending the city from Stafford's weak army. Had Balon invaded the Westerlands, either allied with Robb or neutral to him, the Lannisters could not have stopped him.

You see, Balon ruined it all for every Lannister enemy. If he had sided with Robb, Casterly Lock would've fallen and the Lannisters would have lost the war. The Tyrells wouldn't have sided with them after Renly's death and Stannis would take King's Landing.

[Frey Pie]

He talks of founding a new kingdom does he not, i.e. occupying the north. We don't here much from Balon in text as to how he hopes to keep the north, there are just a few paragraphs. I think settlements and garrisons are a logical step we should assume he planned for. GrrM thinks detailed invasion plans would bore people.

And Asha lacks support for being totally unambitious compared to Balon. The ironborn wanted to ravage the whole land and she asked them to be content with just the stony shore (which is pretty poor).

Anyway, in sum, I assume the plan was trash and loot the place and then occupy it.

And Balon is a paragon of logical thinking? There simply are not enough ironborn to take and hold the North. It would take years upon years and no interference to even have a chance of succeeding. The North is too big and too alien and the ironborn are too small

[Chaircat Meow]

But Stafford's army was 10,000 men strong and was made of barely trained levies. You said it yourself that Victarion probably had some 10,000 men under his command, but those were 10,000 strong warriors and not just children and old men like Stafford had. Victarion could have taken Lannisport from the sea without much resistance. Even if Stafford defeated Robb, Victarion wouldn't have much difficulty defending the city from Stafford's weak army. Had Balon invaded the Westerlands, either allied with Robb or neutral to him, the Lannisters could not have stopped him.

You see, Balon ruined it all for every Lannister enemy. If he had sided with Robb, Casterly Lock would've fallen and the Lannisters would have lost the war. The Tyrells wouldn't have sided with them after Renly's death and Stannis would take King's Landing.

Levies yes, old men and children unlikely for the most part.

Why do you keep assuming Lannisport would fall easily. I guess it might but without knowing the state of its defences how can you be so confident?

And as I keep saying, it is improbable Robb even gets through the mountains to take on Stafford, as the hill road is fortified. Then he has to fight Stafford.

And we know Tywin dashed back when he knew of Oxcross and Edmure stopping him (if he even did) wasn't what Robb even wanted.

Casterly Rock is one of these castles that will hold for 6 months to years too, like SE and so on.

Anyway, I'm not saying trashing the westerlands was undoable but I don't see why people are possessed of the idea it was easily the best option. it wasn't unambiguously so at all.

[King Aerys the Just]

His plans are not outlined in great detail in the book, so it is hard to say.

I always imagined something like this was in his mind. The remaining northmen would be pulled out of the interior to retake coastal assets and then after defeating them there the ironborn could take more of the country, and maybe feed in some more population from the isles as settlers and garrisons.

Some of this could be my imagination though. I don't think it is unreasonable to assume Balon and Asha had thought things through to a greater extent than we see.

No, not unreasonable. Asha is never said to be crazy, and since she seems to have supported Balon's campaign I guess it should have had some more substance.

[Nezzer]

Levies yes, old men and children unlikely for the most part.

Why do you keep assuming Lannisport would fall easily. I guess it might but without knowing the state of its defences how can you be so confident?

And as I keep saying, it is improbable Robb even gets through the mountains to take on Stafford, as the hill road is fortified. Then he has to fight Stafford.

And we know Tywin dashed back when he knew of Oxcross and Edmure stopping him (if he even did) wasn't what Robb even wanted.

Casterly Rock is one of these castles that will hold for 6 months to years too, like SE and so on.

Anyway, I'm not saying trashing the westerlands was undoable but I don't see why people are possessed of the idea it was easily the best option. it wasn't unambiguously so at all.

Lannisport has no significant fleet that we know of and it has a very large port. The ironmen could just dock at the port and take the city from the sea. Tywin had no reason to expect an attack from the sea so he wouldn't leave thousands of men to defend Lannisport.

[Chaircat Meow]

Lannisport has no significant fleet that we know of and it has a very large port. The ironmen could just dock at the port and take the city from the sea. Tywin had no reason to expect an attack from the sea so he wouldn't leave thousands of men to defend Lannisport.

Ports don't necessarily lack sea walls or harbour defences. And Lannisport has a city watch, like king's landing (which is also a port and can't just be sailed into).

All those attempts to take Constantinople you know, why not just turn up and dock? Why didn't Stannis think of this at KL?

[Beorn Snow]

We assume that it was Balon calling all the shots, but apart from the free cities the iron isles are the closest thing to a republic. His bannermen might need some convincing, maybe that´s what took 6 years.

As for Balon´s strategy... In his shoes I´d do nothing. Just grab some popcorn and watch the Starks and Lannisters self-destruct. (Now that I think about it, that´s excactly what I´m doing now).

[Usrnmhsnomning]

Ports don't necessarily lack sea walls or harbour defences. And Lannisport has a city watch, like king's landing (which is also a port and can't just be sailed into).

All those attempts to take Constantinople you know, why not just turn up and dock? Why didn't Stannis think of this at KL?

Isn't this exactly what Stannis did except for the whole, you know, wildfire? I seriously doubt Stannis intended on landing further from the walls than necessary; the docks are a lot closer but got blocked off by a bridge of burning ships. And Constantinople was laid to siege by ships a number of times. Typically it was a stronger navy or desertions that protected Constantinople, not their defense of the ports.

[Nezzer]

Ports don't necessarily lack sea walls or harbour defences. And Lannisport has a city watch, like king's landing (which is also a port and can't just be sailed into).

All those attempts to take Constantinople you know, why not just turn up and dock? Why didn't Stannis think of this at KL?

A city watch isn't very useful against a 10k men strong army. They don't form shield walls or make battle formations. And the port of Lannisport probably has no walls or harbor defences, because the Greyjoys in their rebellion burned their entire fleet when all ships were still anchored. Stannis could have done this if the Lannisters didn't know he was going to attack. Tyrion prepared the city defences for weeks before Stannis attacked and still almost lost the battle. Lannisport wouldn't stand a chance against the ironmen if they attacked it instead of the North.

[Chaircat Meow]

A city watch isn't very useful against a 10k men strong army. They don't form shield walls or make battle formations. And the port of Lannisport probably has no walls or harbor defences, because the Greyjoys in their rebellion burned their entire fleet when all ships were still anchored. Stannis could have done this if the Lannisters didn't know he was going to attack. Tyrion prepared the city defences for weeks before Stannis attacked and still almost lost the battle. Lannisport wouldn't stand a chance against the ironmen if they attacked it instead of the North.

That was a really daring plan dreamed up by Euron though. The main thing is we don't know how defensible Lannisport is, so why are you basing the idea that Balon's attack on the north was sub-optimal around the idea taking the city was a piece of cake?

Lannisport is the nearest major port to islands full of reavers afterall, so it would at least stand to reason if it was quite defensible. Don't let this kind of thing get in the way of the Balon bash though, oh no, keep making random shit up.

[Usrnmhsnomning]

That was a really daring plan dreamed up by Euron though. The main thing is we don't know how defensible Lannisport is, so why are you basing the idea that Balon's attack on the north was sub-optimal around the idea taking the city was a piece of cake?

Lannisport is the nearest major port to islands full of reavers afterall, so it would at least stand to reason if it was quite defensible. Don't let this kind of thing get in the way of the Balon bash though, oh no, keep making random shit up.

Well, the last time a rebellion came up, the fleet at Lannisport was absolutely ravaged, and the current war has left the city empty of defenders, so it's not really making "shit" up. I'd say claiming the city IS defensible is making things up when there is zero textual evidence for it. Those defenses certainly didn't stop the Reavers the first time.

[Nezzer]

That was a really daring plan dreamed up by Euron though. The main thing is we don't know how defensible Lannisport is, so why are you basing the idea that Balon's attack on the north was sub-optimal around the idea taking the city was a piece of cake?

Lannisport is the nearest major port to islands full of reavers afterall, so it would at least stand to reason if it was quite defensible. Don't let this kind of thing get in the way of the Balon bash though, oh no, keep making random shit up.

It's not random. The ironmen can't do shit in the North other than raid some coastal vilages and take a few castles. They can't take the whole country. And in the North there are many houses with really big armies, like the Karstarks and the Manderlys, while in the Westerlands the Lannisters are much more powerful than their vassals now that Reyne and Tarbeck are extinct.

Most powerful Northern houses are located near the eastern shore, where the ironmen are not a threat. They can muster a lot of men without the threat of ironmen taking their castles or slaughtering their populace. The Westerlands, on the other hand, they have almost every powerful house located near the western coast, and their power is much more centralized than in the North.

Taking Lannisport would be a serious blow to the Lannisters, whereas taking White Harbor wouldn't be nearly as critical to the Starks as Lannisport is for the Lannisters. The ironmen can't seize the entire North but they can seize the entire Westerlands, as the latter doesn't go too far inland. It'd be much easier for them to stop lesser lords from forming armies or to regroup.

[Downright Daario]

Because Balon is.....How can I put this gently? Fuckin' dumb. Dumber then Victarion.

[Nezzer]

Because Balon is.....How can I put this gently? Fuckin' dumb. Dumber then Victarion.

Yeah, ever Hodor is smarter than him. I have no idea why the ironmen respected him so much. He never did a single thing right.

[Riptide]

To the OP; he probably started it shortly after his dad died.

To everyone else: 10,000 men? If he could muster an army that size then Seaguard alone should be able to muster 5,000, which I didn't see joining Robb Stark on his ride south. (The Cape of Eagles alone is about half the size of the Iron Islands.) Given the rich Freys can raise 4,000, the martial Ironmen could muster 5,000 at best.

[Chaircat Meow]

To the OP; he probably started it shortly after his dad died.

To everyone else: 10,000 men? If he could muster an army that size then Seaguard alone should be able to muster 5,000, which I didn't see joining Robb Stark on his ride south. (The Cape of Eagles alone is about half the size of the Iron Islands.) Given the rich Freys can raise 4,000, the martial Ironmen could muster 5,000 at best.

They are just extremely over powered in military terms. You can work it out from the size of the iron fleet (which comes to 10,000 men) and then there are raiders and little longships.

Maybe he could field 20,000.

[Jasta11]

I think most Balon bashing could be attributed to the fact that he attacked the beloved Starks home.

Or it might be the fact, had his son not disobeyed orders, all he would have gotten out of his brilliant plan is turnips and rocks.