In terms of fighters, what is the numeric strength of the crannogmen?

[andrew_]

So many thread hijackers, my guess would be around 2000 max, we know they have some fighting capabilities, but I doubt in open combat they would be as effective as on of the other norther armies.

[Scipio Africanus]

Foliage burns.

Dornish guerilla tactics worked because you can't set fire to rock, foliage, on the other other, is rather inflammable.

If the dragon rider is ruthless enough, they would simply burn it all down, then the Crannogmen have nowhere to run.

(Unless their First Men blood makes them fireproof, but I rather doubt that)

So you want to burn the entire Neck? I dunno but that's like saying America should've burned the whole jungle in Vietnam back in the day. The Neck is huge, or it seems so to me.

The small bands can rove, sure, but not as fast or as far as the cavalry who would run them down. This is why the crannogmen are effective in the Neck - because cavalry isn't. Restrict them to swamps and woodland, and they're useful, but as soon as the terrain opens up, horses always run faster and further.

During the American civil war regular forces (particulairly on the Union side) had huge amount of trouble dealing with small bands of mounted irregulars (most were nothing more than ordinairy criminals). These small bands would melt away into the countryside from anything that looked like a serious engangement with regular armed forces, cavalry or no.

The solution in general (particulairly for the Union side, again) was to depopulate whole areas and turn it into a wasteland.

[Sullen]

So you want to burn the entire Neck? I dunno but that's like saying America should've burned the whole jungle in Vietnam back in the day. The Neck is huge, or it seems so to me.

We're talking about dragons here, and the Targs have always been a bit on the loony side.

So yes, I'm talking about burning down any region of the Neck as soon as you have an idea of where the Crannogmen are.

Fire and Blood, they progressively burn the whole thing down demanding surrender after each region turned to ashes, the froggers would not hold out too long.

[Free Northman]

The Neck is a swamp. Good luck burning that down.

[andrew_]

I love dragons as much as the next person but don't you think you're getting a bit carried away with their capabilities? After all it's noted on numerous times that they are powerful, but not indestructible.

[Sullen]

The Neck is a swamp. Good luck burning that down.

Wildfire burns even on water.

I would assume Dragonfire not to be that different, and if it isn't, then go for the Targ weapon of choice, wildfire itself.

I love dragons as much as the next person but don't you think you're getting a bit carried away with their capabilities? After all it's noted on numerous times that they are powerful, but not indestructible.

Yes, they aren't destructible, but we aren't talking about taking on several armies at once, we're talking about rooting out the Crannogmen.

[Dryhtscipe]

During the American civil war

Again, this is a whole other era, with completely different unit organisation, weaponry, and military doctrines.

[Scipio Africanus]

Yes, they aren't destructible, but we aren't talking about taking on several armies at once, we're talking about rooting out the Crannogmen.

In the book one of the pyromancers explains that few things burn hotter than their greek fire, and one of them was dragon breath.

However the Neck really is huge. In ASOFAI we have one reference of what a mature dragon is capable of, when Aegon's dragon torch 5k men in one go (in an open field I might add). Would a mature dragon be able to torch the entire Neck in a feasible amount of time?

Again, this is a whole other era, with completely different unit organisation, weaponry, and military doctrines.

War. War never changes...

I mean some aspects never change. Like dealing with occupying countries with a hostile populace. Nazi Germany had big problems dealing with resistence forces and other insurrection groups in the vast territories they occupied. Despite having radio, airplanes, tanks and machine guns. Americans had big problems combatting the Vietcong even though they had even more a technology advantage over their opponents. Even as recently as the Afghan war we could see how insurrectionists with outdated weaponry and technology can tie down modern western armies despite the latter using state of the art stuff like gps, satellite communication and flying robots.

[Sullen]

In the book one of the pyromancers explains that few things burn hotter than their greek fire, and one of them was dragon breath.

However the Neck really is huge. In ASOFAI we have one reference of what a mature dragon is capable of, when Aegon's dragon torch 5k men in one go (in an open field I might add). Would a mature dragon be able to torch the entire Neck in a feasible amount of time?

The Neck is huge, granted, but fire spreads as long as there is still something to burn in its reach and it isn't smothered.

We all know how devastating forest fires (wildfires) are, now imagine if the fire was considerably more resilient and powerful, I don't doubt that dragon attacks here and there (optimizing the growth of the forest fire) would get the best of The Reach relatively quickly.

Also, who ever talked about one dragon, it is Targ tradition to normally have three, no?

[Lord Klax Stark]

What you are failing to take into account Sellsword is that just because something burns incredibly hot doesn't mean it is more resilient or powerful then other types of fire. Even with dragon fire burning hotter then wildfire, wildfire is essentially greek fire which in itself was an alchemical substance similar to napalm. Dragon fire wont be alchemical (though it will be magical) so you cant just assume that its going to burn on water or other liquids. With that said, the Neck is a giant ass swamp bog. EVERYTHING is covered in liquid. Even if some of the vegetation burns (I doubt much of it would, the dragonfire is if anything only like to incinerate small patches at a time) the neck is too large to burn to the ground, Even beyond that, how would the dragons know where to go, or where the crannogmen are? The only way to tell would be to march an army through and wait for them to attack you. This will result in one of two scenarios. Either they attack you and successfully get away, or they attack you and you are able to deploy your dragons quickly enough (Something I highly doubt, getting a dragon equipped and mounted must take awhile) at which point if you do burn down patches of the neck you are just as likely to obliterate your own army in the resulting fire. Dragons wouldn't be half as effective as you would think. And just for the sake of funsies, on a crackpot tangent its even possible that a crannog could get a poison dart in your dragons eye. Poof, dead dragon.

[Sullen]

What you are failing to take into account Sellsword is that just because something burns incredibly hot doesn't mean it is more resilient or powerful then other types of fire. Even with dragon fire burning hotter then wildfire, wildfire is essentially greek fire which in itself was an alchemical substance similar to napalm. Dragon fire wont be alchemical (though it will be magical) so you cant just assume that its going to burn on water or other liquids. With that said, the Neck is a giant ass swamp bog. EVERYTHING is covered in liquid. Even if some of the vegetation burns (I doubt much of it would, the dragonfire is if anything only like to incinerate small patches at a time) the neck is too large to burn to the ground, Even beyond that, how would the dragons know where to go, or where the crannogmen are? The only way to tell would be to march an army through and wait for them to attack you. This will result in one of two scenarios. Either they attack you and successfully get away, or they attack you and you are able to deploy your dragons quickly enough (Something I highly doubt, getting a dragon equipped and mounted must take awhile) at which point if you do burn down patches of the neck you are just as likely to obliterate your own army in the resulting fire. Dragons wouldn't be half as effective as you would think. And just for the sake of funsies, on a crackpot tangent its even possible that a crannog could get a poison dart in your dragons eye. Poof, dead dragon.

In this specific scenario, they are not targeting groups of Crannogmen, they are burning down the entire Neck, patch by patch, to eventually draw them out. The description of wildfire we have in ACoK has it spreading extremely quickly over water.

If dragon fire isn't as lasting as wildfire, use wildfire instead. (Implying wildfire can safely be transported on dragonback.)

To minimize damage to your own army, you keep them on the borders of the Neck, ready to strike any Crannogmen fleeing down South.

[Lord Klax Stark]

Given that wildfire is said to be dangerous and highly volatile traveling in padded wagons throughout kingslanding, I sincerely doubt its going to be able to be transported thousands of miles to the neck, let alone be safely deployed on dragonback. Even if you could get wildfire there, and deploy it, the neck is huge. I am betting you wouldn't be able to make enough in a timely or cost effective manner. And if you were willing to go to the expense, which would be MASSIVE you would get absolutely nothing from it, because you would be burning down the very region and people you were trying to conquer. I am sorry my friend, but your strategy isn't viable. And we really should get back on topic ;)

[Mman]

I would say at least 2,000, but probably more like 3,000. This is because, from what we have seen, it is more likely that the crannogmen fighting force would be more diverse than your average. Their fighting style more easily allows women/children/old people to be effective.

I also disagree slightly with the idea that their effectiveness would be stripped entirely outside of the neck. Alone, yes, they wouldn't do so well. But as party of an army, with an effective general, they could be specialist in part of a team defended by proper knights. I imagine like this they could make quick work of a group of dothraki or even horseback knights. With that being said, I'm not sure giving up their strategic hold on the neck would be worth it.

[Sullen]

I am sorry my friend, but your strategy isn't viable.

If, and only if, dragonfire does not burn as long as wildfire!

The goal is also not to conquer the Crannogmen, but to defeat them.

But yeah, this has gone off-topic...

[Barristan the G.O.A.T]

The Mongols conqured half of asia,Their averge height was about 5' 4".

The mongols fought on horseback, in open fields, in organized armies. Also they didn't have a huge height disadvantage against their opponents. Your analogy is wrong on so many levels.

[Morienthar]

The mongols fought on horseback, in open fields, in organized armies. Also they didn't have a huge height disadvantage against their opponents. Your analogy is wrong on so many levels.

Mongols did have infantry and a four inch on avegrage height disadvantage is not huge I agree,But I wanted to sate that the Crannogmen's height disadvantage won't really matter either as they would prefer gurellia tactics rather than a full on attack.

[SerDuck]

Small stature automatically means inferior warrior, right?

Ya i know... tell that to Yoda . :)

[Lord Klax Stark]

Yoda aside =p, I find it interesting that most people seem okay with my numbers. Does anyone think they could have more then 5kish? If so, reed and manderly with their numbers and troop types (Manderly: heavy infantry, knights, ships, Reed: Skirmishes, foragers, scouts) could produce a devastating army in the 15000 man range. Throw in the scattered remnants of other northern lords and tack on Skagos, it looks like the North could produce another 25k man army.

[The King Breaker]

I

[The King Breaker]

sorry bout that last one don't know why that happened. The crannogs are pretty good archers right so they would defenitly be a formidable force if mixed evenly with some infantry. and i think yes theyd be most useful in a guerrilla situation but good archers could defend castles well enough .so they could be a good fighting force but not alone. as to their numbers i agree somewhere between 2000 and 4000.