Could the Knights of the Vale sack the Twins?

[Blackfish Tully]

the point is LF isn't as in control as he thinks and that the other Lords in the Vale know what is happening with Sansa, etc.

EDIT: The link above provides a good explanation

I'm pretty sure that Littlefinger knows what the Vale Lord's are plotting. How many spies does Littlefinger have throughout the Vale? we know he has Lyn Cordray but we do not know how many other people are working for him and I bet the Vale Lords have no idea who is spying for Littlefinger.

Littlefinger started the War of the Five Kings ,had Jon Arryn murdered, set-up Ned Stark and Tyrion Lannister , was involved in Joffery's murder and probably talked Joffery into killing Ned and he managed to not only keep his hands clean but was able to become Lord Paramount of the Riverlands and Lord Protector of the Vale and also stole Sansa Stark out from under the noses of Varys and the Tyrells and Lannisters so I have a hard time believing that Nestor Royce is going to be his downfall.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

It's not as simple as marching an army 900 odd miles in winter and laying siege to the Twins and then killing them and taking their land, other factors have to be considered.

1)Darry and Riverrun are now controlled by the Freys so does this Vale army lay siege to them as well? A three pronged attack?

2)Armies going from one land to another would have to have permission from the King of Westeros. These type of border breaches would risk LF his position and jeopardize whatever longterm plans he has in motion.

3)The Vale army did nothing during the Wot5Ks, with Stannis still in the North and a new pretender in the Stormlands the Iron Throne does not want it's allies fighting amongst themselves and is more likely to support the Lord who actually fought for the Crown.

4)While the Freys have enemies in the Riverlands they are not as universally despised as it is often said in here, some would take their side while others would fight simply as the thought of outsiders coming in and taking Trident land for their own.

[Blackfish Tully]

It's not as simple as marching an army 900 odd miles in winter and laying siege to the Twins and then killing them and taking their land, other factors have to be considered.

1)Darry and Riverrun are now controlled by the Freys so does this Vale army lay siege to them as well? A three pronged attack?

2)Armies going from one land to another would have to have permission from the King of Westeros. These type of border breaches would risk LF his position and jeopardize whatever longterm plans he has in motion.

3)The Vale army did nothing during the Wot5Ks, with Stannis still in the North and a new pretender in the Stormlands the Iron Throne does not want it's allies fighting amongst themselves and is more likely to support the Lord who actually fought for the Crown.

4)While the Freys have enemies in the Riverlands they are not as universally despised as it is often said in here, some would take their side while others would fight simply as the thought of outsiders coming in and taking Trident land for their own.

1. I think that Riverrun will be attacked during Daven Lannister's wedding and that would be the perfect time for the Vale to attack the Twins.The Freys will send an army out of the Twins to help Riverrun and the Vale could ambush that army and then lay siege to the Twins.

2. Littlefinger has a good relationship with the Lannisters and Tyrells he should have no problem convincing them that he needs to take out the Freys for the good of the Kingdom. He could say that the Freys are planning on joining Stannis.

3.Littlefinger is the Lord Paramount of the Riverlands so it's his responsibilty to sort out his bannermen so the Iron Throne will let him do what he needs to do.

4.Sorry but you could not be more wrong about this statement.

[otherbeef]

I'm pretty sure that Littlefinger knows what the Vale Lord's are plotting. How many spies does Littlefinger have throughout the Vale? we know he has Lyn Cordray but we do not know how many other people are working for him and I bet the Vale Lords have no idea who is spying for Littlefinger.

Littlefinger started the War of the Five Kings ,had Jon Arryn murdered, set-up Ned Stark and Tyrion Lannister , was involved in Joffery's murder and probably talked Joffery into killing Ned and he managed to not only keep his hands clean but was able to become Lord Paramount of the Riverlands and Lord Protector of the Vale and also stole Sansa Stark out from under the noses of Varys and the Tyrells and Lannisters so I have a hard time believing that Nestor Royce is going to be his downfall.

LF can do everything perfectly and it won't matter if Sansa lets it slip about who she really is, or if the Lords declarent simply buckle down and remove him now that he is at the Gates of the Moon. And it doesn't have to be Nestor, i think he is being very presumptuous about the loyalty or lack of action against him from people like Waynwood and Bronze Yohn. Currently Harry the Heir is not under LF's control, and should he succeed Robert as Lord of the Eyrie, LF is literally not needed by anybody in the Vale.

[TheGreatstag]

It's not as simple as marching an army 900 odd miles in winter and laying siege to the Twins and then killing them and taking their land, other factors have to be considered.

1)Darry and Riverrun are now controlled by the Freys so does this Vale army lay siege to them as well? A three pronged attack?

2)Armies going from one land to another would have to have permission from the King of Westeros. These type of border breaches would risk LF his position and jeopardize whatever longterm plans he has in motion.

3)The Vale army did nothing during the Wot5Ks, with Stannis still in the North and a new pretender in the Stormlands the Iron Throne does not want it's allies fighting amongst themselves and is more likely to support the Lord who actually fought for the Crown.

4)While the Freys have enemies in the Riverlands they are not as universally despised as it is often said in here, some would take their side while others would fight simply as the thought of outsiders coming in and taking Trident land for their own.

1) The Frey's power is derived from the Twins. Depriving them of that, pillaging and executing Walder + others would be a big dent. The Frey garrison at Riverrun would have little hope to defend it on their own.

2) I firmly believe that Littlefinger is aware that plotting and scheming gets you so far (and it has) but in the end you do need an army to attain supremacy. It's a world driven by bloodshed. Additionally, in this scenario, Littlefinger is also LP of the Riverlands. LPs are allowed to control their own vassals.

3) The Vale wanted to declare for Robb Stark. Bronze Yohn in particular wanted to keep the old alliance from Robert's Rebellion alive. Ned was fostered in the Vale and would have allies so they wanted revenge for him. Lysa Tully stopped that from happening, but I'm sure they'd be aware that the Vale joining Robb Stark would have turned the war. Seeing the Lannisters kill Robb in the RW may be something that the Vale Lords are not too happy about, and anyone with a decent sense of honor/morality (i.e. Bronze Yohn) would detest the Freys. The Iron Throne - particularly if it is now run by Tyrells - must be aware that they need to distance themselves from the toxic effects of the Freys. If a Lord Paramount is acting against his own bannermen and trying to eliminate the Freys and has possession of one of the few armies that were untouched by the war, the Iron Throne will have to let it go. In the meantime, Littlefinger becomes the hero of the Riverlands (also recall he was fostered in Riverrun), the Vale (where he is building allies) and the North (as he is fighting for Sansa Stark's birthright and avenged the Young Wolf. Whoever destroys the Freys actually gets considerably political advantage.

4) One only has to read Jaime's chapter where Lord Piper left their tent out of disgust for the Freys in attendance + the amount of Riverlander support the BwB gets to know that the Lords of the Riverlands will not oppose anyone who's here to wipe out Freys. Moreover, LF could promise them the prompt return of any hostages. Again, good will created, and LF goes further on the path to becoming the most powerful man in Westeros. LF knows that he is the Lord Paramount of the Riverlands in name only at this stage. For him to gain any strength from that position, he needs that good will.

[Blackfish Tully]

LF can do everything perfectly and it won't matter if Sansa lets it slip about who she really is, or if the Lords declarent simply buckle down and remove him now that he is at the Gates of the Moon. And it doesn't have to be Nestor, i think he is being very presumptuous about the loyalty or lack of action against him from people like Waynwood and Bronze Yohn. Currently Harry the Heir is not under LF's control, and should he succeed Robert as Lord of the Eyrie, LF is literally not needed by anybody in the Vale.

The Vale Lords are very prickly about their honor so they will not move against Littlefinger until the year that they gave him is up. That gives him a year to convince them that he is the best person to be leading the Vale in these chaotic times. Littlefinger is very smart and rich , has what seems to be a huge spy network , has the loyalty of the merchants of Gulltown and seems to have a lot of friends and contacts in Kings Landing and was a member of the Small Council and Master of Coin. They may come to see that he really is the best person to be leading the Vale at this time. And if they find out who Sansa is will that really hurt him with the Vale Lords? He did save her from the Lannisters and Tyrells and is planning on restoring her to the North (at least he says he is) so that may actually get the Vale Lords more on his side.

[TheGreatstag]

The Vale Lords are very prickly about their honor so they will not move against Littlefinger until the year that they gave him is up. That gives him a year to convince them that he is the best person to be leading the Vale in these chaotic times. Littlefinger is very smart and rich , has what seems to be a huge spy network , has the loyalty of the merchants of Gulltown and seems to have a lot of friends and contacts in Kings Landing and was a member of the Small Council and Master of Coin. They may come to see that he really is the best person to be leading the Vale at this time. And if they find out who Sansa is will that really hurt him with the Vale Lords? He did save her from the Lannisters and Tyrells and is planning on restoring her to the North (at least he says he is) so that may actually get the Vale Lords more on his side.

Yep LF knows that bribes and scheming isn't everything. Eventually a good Lord needs to have some bannermen who follow him for other reasons, be it family connection, liking his personality or thinking he's the shrewdest person to deal with a tense situation.

[Gurkhal]

If an entire region in Westeros goes after a single House, that House is screwed. No matter what House. So yes, the Freys would be dead meat, as would almost any other.

[Light a wight tonight]

The Vale Lords are very prickly about their honor so they will not move against Littlefinger until the year that they gave him is up. That gives him a year to convince them that he is the best person to be leading the Vale in these chaotic times. Littlefinger is very smart and rich , has what seems to be a huge spy network , has the loyalty of the merchants of Gulltown and seems to have a lot of friends and contacts in Kings Landing and was a member of the Small Council and Master of Coin. They may come to see that he really is the best person to be leading the Vale at this time. And if they find out who Sansa is will that really hurt him with the Vale Lords? He did save her from the Lannisters and Tyrells and is planning on restoring her to the North (at least he says he is) so that may actually get the Vale Lords more on his side.

Balance this against his plans to kill the legitimate Lord of the Vale, Sweetrobin. This should trump any pledges to maintain LF as Lord Protector. And it would be instructive how quickly those parties LF bought would turn on him if it meant that the debts would be cancelled by his death.

[zaphodbrx]

I have a very real problem about anyone talking about 'sacking the twins' as if it's really that easy.

The twins are uniquely defensible- one of the best fortresses in westeros. The vale lords would have to literally send their entire army there or forget about it.

I've been building some castle defense maps in stronghold ( computer game ) and trying to seige them. I know it's not exactly tremendously accurate but just going on it I would say you need at least 10:1 advantage to win and even then lose most of your army.

[Blackfish Tully]

Balance this against his plans to kill the legitimate Lord of the Vale, Sweetrobin. This should trump any pledges to maintain LF as Lord Protector. And it would be instructive how quickly those parties LF bought would turn on him if it meant that the debts would be cancelled by his death.

do we know that he is trying to kill Sweetrobin? and even if he is how are the Vale Lords going to find out?

The only lord that I remember that Littefinger bought their debts was Lady Waynwood and Littlefinger promised her a massive dowry when Sansa marries Harry the Heir , if Littlefinger dies then that dowry goes away. Also I'm not sure that the debts are cancelled by Littlefinger's death, were the Iron Throne's debts to the Lannisters cancelled by Tywin's death ?

[Ser_Cortnay_Penrose]

Hmm very interesting thread. Some of my thoughts:

The possible motivation for LF to take the twins is unclear to me. It's been said that it would win him the alliance of the Riverlands and the North...but winning the loyalty of noble houses by winning just, heroic, high-casualty battles really doesn't seem like Littlefinger, does it? Hell, raising an army and doing battle in any circumstance is not part of his repertoire. He wants to cut deals, stay one step ahead, and let the "pieces" do the fighting for what they think are their own motivations, but which were really LF's manipulations all along.

At the moment he wants it to seem as though he intends to unite the Vale and the North under him by way of marriage to Sansa...but personally I don't think LF plans to give Sansa away in the end. GRRM defines his character's and their motivations by the most traumatic events that happened to them early in life, which they are constantly trying to avenge or gaurd against, whether it be Eddard's family's deaths or Tywins humiliation or Theon's insecurity or Cersei's paranoia or Robert's rage and recklessness, etc. For Littlefinger it is his obsessive love for Catelyn Tully, the utter domination at arms dealt to him by Brandon, and the still-gnawing insignificance of his family name- I believe that this all points to the following end-game: achieve repute and glory, but by wits rather than combat, and keep Sansa forever, as a lover or as a weird pseudo-daughter like he would've had with Catelyn if he coud've had her but for the non-nobility of his family.

As the obsession with Catelyn may be the only genuine this about LF, he will not hand Sansa away. If he does go after the Freys, which he may well do, it will be to avenge the murder of Cat. But I do not believe he will ever seek an open battle in which he is known as the commander. He may orchestrate their demise, but not deal it directly and openly.

[Bear Islander]

do we know that he is trying to kill Sweetrobin? and even if he is how are the Vale Lords going to find out?

The only lord that I remember that Littefinger bought their debts was Lady Waynwood and Littlefinger promised her a massive dowry when Sansa marries Harry the Heir , if Littlefinger dies then that dowry goes away. Also I'm not sure that the debts are cancelled by Littlefinger's death, were the Iron Throne's debts to the Lannisters cancelled by Tywin's death ?

We know that LF is in it for himself and everyone else is his pawn. My expectation is that if Robert Arryn doesn't die naturally "soon" LF will likely help things along perhaps with a little more sweetsleep. LF let's others do his dirty work. Who will the Vale follow? My guess is that Sansa, with her growing political skill under the tuteledge of LF, will bring her to power in the Vale and the North. She will learn of LF true nature and his role in Ned's demise. This will not bode well for LF, who I think is more evil than good.

The Vale could take the Twins but they will likely ally themselves with Manderly and the Stark loyalists in the north. However, it could be bloody before that happens as LF is sowing seeds of discord in the Vale. Sansa's role (and how quickly she becomes a power player) will be key.

[OuterZan]

I have a very real problem about anyone talking about 'sacking the twins' as if it's really that easy.

The twins are uniquely defensible- one of the best fortresses in westeros. The vale lords would have to literally send their entire army there or forget about it.

I've been building some castle defense maps in stronghold ( computer game ) and trying to seige them. I know it's not exactly tremendously accurate but just going on it I would say you need at least 10:1 advantage to win and even then lose most of your army.

The same could be said about Storms end and Winterfell. We all know how these castles ended.

[Blackfish Tully]

Who will the Vale follow? My guess is that Sansa, with her growing political skill under the tuteledge of LF, will bring her to power in the Vale and the North. She will learn of LF true nature and his role in Ned's demise. This will not bode well for LF, who I think is more evil than good.

Since Sansa is learning her skills under the tutedge of Littlefinger don't you think that he has taken into consideration that she may turn on him.

Littlefinger is not a fool, there has to be a reason he is teaching her to play the game of thrones and he is not stupid enough to teach her how to play the game without protecting himself from her turning on him.

[zaphodbrx]

The same could be said about Storms end and Winterfell. We all know how these castles ended.

Winterfell was taken by Theon when there were like 10 men left to guard ( epic fail there Rodrik )

Storms end was taken when it's commander was killed by a shadow baby and then the garrison surrendered to Stannis who was basically their liege lord.

It's very difficult to find a similar situation in the Twins. And the Twins are really, really formidable. I would rate them higher than Storm's end and Winterfell.

[OuterZan]

Winterfell was taken by Theon when there were like 10 men left to guard ( epic fail there Rodrik )

Storms end was taken when it's commander was killed by a shadow baby and then the garrison surrendered to Stannis who was basically their liege lord.

It's very difficult to find a similar situation in the Twins. And the Twins are really, really formidable. I would rate them higher than Storm's end and Winterfell.

Thats why im saying it, noone anticipated the taking of those two castles until they were taken. Storms end was considered almost impenetrable, as well as Winterfell (when properly manned). And if someone sacks the Twins, it probably wont be by siege or direct assault.

[Belisarius09]

I think people are forgetting a very important minor character.

Brynden Tully, the Blackfish, he was serving in the Vale as the protector of the moon gate or w/e that title was called. He escaped the Riverrun, where did he go? It seems highly probable he could have returned/will return to the Vale. He could tell the Lords of the Vale everything about whats been going on in the Riverlands.

LF won't take kindly to the Freys disputing his authority in the Riverlands. Many of the Lords of the Vale were friendly to Robb Stark's cause, many of them had fought alongside his father in Bob's rebellion. The North remembers, and its likely the Lords of the Vale do to, they won't forgive the Freys for the RW. Once LF reveals Sansa's identity, he will likely sway many lords to his side. Then LF, Sansa, The Blackfish, and The Lords of the Vale could all march on the Twins together.

Succesfully destroying the Freys would win the Riverlords to their side as well. The Mallisters still had some strength left, as did the Brackens and Blackwoods.

Next LF would be in a good position to negotiate with either Aegon in the South or Stannis who is bottled up in the North. Assume Tarly switches sides to join Aegon, maybe the Tyrells do too, and the last vestiges of Lannister power are wiped out.

[Bear Islander]

Since Sansa is learning her skills under the tutedge of Littlefinger don't you think that he has taken into consideration that she may turn on him.

Littlefinger is not a fool, there has to be a reason he is teaching her to play the game of thrones and he is not stupid enough to teach her how to play the game without protecting himself from her turning on him.

Could be. It may be that LF's on the road to redemption like Jaime and Theon and actually cares about Sansa. If not, the he may underestimate Sansa and the "powers" of the old gods that may serve her in and around Winterfell. LF is a realist and plays the game in the physical/political dimension. I'm not sure he's prepared for the next level involving Bran, COTF, and the Others.