Rickard Karstark. What If.... (ASoS Spoilers)

[Stag Country]

Supposing that Robb doesn't execute Lord Karstark after the Lannister murders.

Does the Red Wedding still happen? And if so, who does Karstark side with if he's stuck in a prison in Riverrun?

We know he's got a serious hatred of the Lannisters, but he's also ravenously disillusioned with Robb's leadership. Bolton knows this and keeps the Karstark levies with his own when he starts to bleed the loyalist forces on the way back to the Twins after Rickard's been executed.

So if he's still alive and rotting in a Riverrun dungeon, do you think he excepts the Bolton betrayal or does he turn on Bolton for throwing his chips in with the Lannisters?

[profilebegone]

Supposing that Robb doesn't execute Lord Karstark after the Lannister murders.

Does the Red Wedding still happen? And if so, who does Karstark side with if he's stuck in a prison in Riverrun?

We know he's got a serious hatred of the Lannisters, but he's also ravenously disillusioned with Robb's leadership. Bolton knows this and keeps the Karstark levies with his own when he starts to bleed the loyalist forces on the way back to the Twins after Rickard's been executed.

So if he's still alive and rotting in a Riverrun dungeon, do you think he excepts the Bolton betrayal or does he turn on Bolton for throwing his chips in with the Lannisters?

Remember - Karstark's disillusionment with Robb's leadership comes from his unwillingness to execute Lannister prisoners. So I don't think he's likely to be on board with Team Bolton.

As for the RW...maybe, but since he'd still have the Karstarks he may not have needed to go hat-in-hand to Frey when he did. But at that point it Roose Bolton was already likely working with Tywin and the North was getting sacked by the Iron Islanders so it doesn't look good for the King in the North, RW or otherwise.

[mormont]

Well, first of all if Robb doesn't execute Karstark, the Lannisters are going to suspect (not unreasonably) that Robb either approves of or even connived at the murders. So they are going to add revenge to political expediency in their list of motivations for the Red Wedding.

Furthermore, Robb still needs to get back to WF - arguably even more so, since not executing Karstark has undermined his already shaky authority. (Whatever reason he has for holding off the execution, it makes him look too weak to do what should be done.) The loss of Karstark's men plays no substantial role in making Robb vulnerable to the RW: it was a blow to his long-term aims, but doesn't change his short-term need to cross the Twins and so his need to win back Walder. Besides, Karstark's men are already lost to him - Karstark ordered them to desert before he committed the murders.

So the RW definitely still happens. As to what happens next: I'd imagine that he rots in a cell until Jaime retakes Riverrrun, at which point he's given the choice of supporting Bolton or death.

[Dany Girl]

Ya, I don't know that supporting the Lannisters/Boltons would be a possibility for Rickard Karstark and those that helped him. He murdered squires that were Lannisters. They were POWs and like 12. I don't see the Lannisters forgiving them. A Lannister always pays his debts after all. I could see them saying they're forgiven but then doing something to get back at them for the murders. You know how Tywin is about his family. He went a bit nutty when the kid he hates got arrested, he would not overlook the slaughter of defenseless kids. They were what, 12ish?

[profilebegone]

The loss of Karstark's men plays no substantial role in making Robb vulnerable to the RW: it was a blow to his long-term aims, but doesn't change his short-term need to cross the Twins and so his need to win back Walder.

Yep, forgot about that - he needed the bridge, not the swords. So, yeah, the RW is pretty much sewn up once Theon sacks Winterfell and Robb...er, "sacks" Jeyne Westerling.

[Stag Country]

Yeah, if anything Robb's execution of Rickard might just have saved his son Harrion's life from vengence.

I don't know that I'd say the Red Wedding happens for sure. Bolton's not stupid, he needs some support up North once this goes off. Without a new batch of Karstarks that have a new sense of hatred for the Starks, it might be tougher for him to pull that off.

[Stag Country]

Yep, forgot about that - he needed the bridge, not the swords. So, yeah, the RW is pretty much sewn up once Theon sacks Winterfell and Robb...er, "sacks" Jeyne Westerling.

Does he for sure need the bridge though? I was under the distinct impression that it was the men he needed to make the assault on the Moat Cailin causeway possible. At the time, I thought he was in control of the Ruby Ford and Harrenhall.

[profilebegone]

Does he for sure need the bridge though? I was under the distinct impression that it was the men he needed to make the assault on the Moat Cailin causeway possible. At the time, I thought he was in control of the Ruby Ford and Harrenhall.

This topographic map makes it a little clearer:

http://gameofthrones.net/images/Westeros_Maps/map_of_westeros.jpg

Remember, he's going from Riverrun to Moat Cailin, so he either crosses the Twins or takes the really, really long way where his army is vulnerable. I think that's right (the geography always scrambles me a bit, too).

[Erkan12]

Besides, Karstark's men are already lost to him - Karstark ordered them to desert before he committed the murders.

Exactly. Many readers miss out this info.

[profilebegone]

Exactly. Many readers miss out this info.

I certainly did. :blushing:

[Frey-A-La-Mode]

Yep, forgot about that - he needed the bridge, not the swords. So, yeah, the RW is pretty much sewn up once Theon sacks Winterfell and Robb...er, "sacks" Jeyne Westerling.

Well played, Ser.

Exactly. Many readers miss out this info.

Huh. I missed that too.

[not in the face]

Supposing that Robb doesn't execute Lord Karstark after the Lannister murders.

Does the Red Wedding still happen? And if so, who does Karstark side with if he's stuck in a prison in Riverrun?

We know he's got a serious hatred of the Lannisters, but he's also ravenously disillusioned with Robb's leadership. Bolton knows this and keeps the Karstark levies with his own when he starts to bleed the loyalist forces on the way back to the Twins after Rickard's been executed.

So if he's still alive and rotting in a Riverrun dungeon, do you think he excepts the Bolton betrayal or does he turn on Bolton for throwing his chips in with the Lannisters?

He or Harrion would be in Whoresbane Umbar type situation. Follow or we kill what matters most to you.