Jon Connington's next move

[laughing tree]

I think the grayscale is going to be a key element here. Why else would GRRM have made so much of it (remember Val's remarks to Jon about Stannis's daughter)?

Connington isn't merely mortally ill; he's carrying a plague. Aegon, impostor or not, may well take the iron throne temporarily in the leadership vacuum that follows the disintegration of the Tyrell/Lannister alliance, but he's going to be undone by popular panic as contagious as JC's disease.

[Red Raven]

laughing tree, I think so too. On top of wars and a climatic disaster, the Westerosi are going to be forced to deal with a plague as well. Welcome to Crapsack World. Shireen is either going to be a guaranteed survivor (she's immune from the adult forms because she had the juvenile form) or, unfortunately, killed for being falsely blamed for spreading the plague.

As for troop numbers, we have to be careful here. GRRM in an interview said that he purposely gives conflicting information about the size of armies; different sides will have different counts of the same group of soldiers.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

Greyscale has been present in the Seven Kingdoms before. We know it can be contagious by touch, but JC is taking all of the precautions that he can by keeping clean.

Given the time factor and so much needing to be done with the war for the throne and the coming of the Others, I don't think a plague is likely in the cards. I believe a religious war between the Faith of the Seven and the Red God is much more likely.

As for the army numbers, its important to the story to know who can still fight. Estimations made from facts given in the books, from GRRM himself, and the author approved information sites are a good gauge. No one can be exact obviously, but some light can be shed.

[laughing tree]

Stallion, you make a good point. But I'm wondering--just speculating here--if greyscale is subject to any of the enhanced power of the times? Others rising, dragons hatching, wildfire formulas working, prophecies coming true--why not an extra virulent strain of a fearsome disease? If that's the case, Shireen may yet be a true vector, not simply a scapegoat, and Connington's precautions may be in vain. Not saying I can see how it all shakes out, but it feels to me like GRRM has something invested in this angle that has the potential to take all of the armies by surprise and shake up the power dynamics much more than military action.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

Stallion, you make a good point. But I'm wondering--just speculating here--if greyscale is subject to any of the enhanced power of the times? Others rising, dragons hatching, wildfire formulas working, prophecies coming true--why not an extra virulent strain of a fearsome disease? If that's the case, Shireen may yet be a true vector, not simply a scapegoat, and Connington's precautions may be in vain. Not saying I can see how it all shakes out, but it feels to me like GRRM has something invested in this angle that has the potential to take all of the armies by surprise and shake up the power dynamics much more than military action.

Anything is possible when it comes to GRRM. I just think the plague angle have been sort of covered with the Pale Mare in Meereen. Addtionally, a devastating plague (The Spring Sickness) ravaged the Seven Kingdoms in 209 AL killing tens of thousands. It was bad in Lannisport, worse in Oldtown, and worst in King's Landing. It killed King Daeron, his two heirs, the High Septon, and the Hand of the King. There were so many bodies that Bloodraven had them piled in the drgaonpit and set on fire.

I could always be wrong, but I just don't think plague is in the offering. There is just too much other stuff to cover.

[three-eyed monkey]

Personally, I don't believe Aegon is real, but its the characters' opinion that matters. I think Aegon and Jon Con think he's real. Naturally there will be scepticism among the lords of Westeros at first, but with Jon Con and 'Lady Lemore,' depending on who she might be, to vouch for him being Rhaegar's son then I'm sure some lords will be persuaded. Even if they privately have their doubts, just as they might doubt that Tommen is Robert's son, I'm sure they'll be willing to play along with the charade if it suits their political interest.

On that basis, I think Aegon's choice of marriage alliance will be interesting. There are so many possible twists here that I'd hate to have to predict where GRRM might go.

Arianne might be the front-runner at this stage, but would a marriage alliance with Dorne be a waste of a strong card? I mean if Aegon can persuade Doran that he's the real deal, then maybe he should expect Dorne's loyalty based on his mother being Elia and play the marriage alliance card elsewhere.

Margery would be a better choice perhaps, a fact that will not have escaped the QoT I suspect. The Tyrells have a choice to make it would seem to me. Do they stand with the waning 'Baratheons' against Aegon, while still taking on the Ironborn too, or do they do a Joff on Tommen and throw their lot in with Aegon?

And what about Sansa? Could the Mad Mouse somehow snag the bounty he's been hunting and return her to KL in time to coincide with Aegon's triumphant arrival and a Stark being returned to Winterfell?

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

Personally, I don't believe Aegon is real, but its the characters' opinion that matters. I think Aegon and Jon Con think he's real. Naturally there will be scepticism among the lords of Westeros at first, but with Jon Con and 'Lady Lemore,' depending on who she might be, to vouch for him being Rhaegar's son then I'm sure some lords will be persuaded. Even if they privately have their doubts, just as they might doubt that Tommen is Robert's son, I'm sure they'll be willing to play along with the charade if it suits their political interest.

On that basis, I think Aegon's choice of marriage alliance will be interesting. There are so many possible twists here that I'd hate to have to predict where GRRM might go.

Arianne might be the front-runner at this stage, but would a marriage alliance with Dorne be a waste of a strong card? I mean if Aegon can persuade Doran that he's the real deal, then maybe he should expect Dorne's loyalty based on his mother being Elia and play the marriage alliance card elsewhere.

Margery would be a better choice perhaps, a fact that will not have escaped the QoT I suspect. The Tyrells have a choice to make it would seem to me. Do they stand with the waning 'Baratheons' against Aegon, while still taking on the Ironborn too, or do they do a Joff on Tommen and throw their lot in with Aegon?

And what about Sansa? Could the Mad Mouse somehow snag the bounty he's been hunting and return her to KL in time to coincide with Aegon's triumphant arrival and a Stark being returned to Winterfell?

The whole idea was to have a marriage between Aegon and Dany, as no one doubts her blood. If she accepts him, others will as well. Without Dany it gets kind of tricky. For some, his looks and victories will be enough. It never hurts to be on the winning side. If Dany returns and cooks him, his supporters can always claim that they didn't know.

One key point: Before the Tyrion chapters were finalized, there was a very important sword that was in one the chest that Illyrio was sending to Aegon. Myself and many believe that the sword is Blackfyre. Having that, along with dragon armor will help.

[KingHodorTargaryen]

Aegon's best marriage option would be Arrianne. All of the options are:

Arianne: best one since she is close, impulsive like Aegon and willing to support him.

Margeary: I think she is unlikely to win her trial and either dies or becomes disgraced.

Sansa: Unless she takes out Petyr and declares herself and rids herself of Harry really quickly, she would be too late.

Dany: Not possible because GRRM stated that there will be a Dance of Dragons.

[three-eyed monkey]

The whole idea was to have a marriage between Aegon and Dany, as no one doubts her blood. If she accepts him, others will as well. Without Dany it gets kind of tricky. For some, his looks and victories will be enough. It never hurts to be on the winning side. If Dany returns and cooks him, his supporters can always claim that they didn't know.

One key point: Before the Tyrion chapters were finalized, there was a very important sword that was in one the chest that Illyrio was sending to Aegon. Myself and many believe that the sword is Blackfyre. Having that, along with dragon armor will help.

I agree entirely. But with no sign of Dany on the Westerosi horizon do they change the original marriage plan or do they wait?

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

I agree entirely. But with no sign of Dany on the Westerosi horizon do they change the original marriage plan or do they wait?

Thus far, Connington has ruled out any marriage for Aegon b/c of Dany and he may be right to do so.

1. The Marcher Lords are the key to a consolidated Stormlands. Dorne, the Crownlands, allies from the Reach, and Aurane Waters can all be had ,IMO, without a marriage. The Riverlands hate the Lannisters/Freys/Boltons and will likely rebel again if they see Aegon winning victory after victory. Littlefinger will also see the writing on the wall. All of the forces Aegon will likely accumulate can be had without a committed marriage to any house.

2. It was not until after the Rebellion that Robert was talked into marrying Cersei. Aegon can likewise take the throne and then survey the landscape to see what his best options are.

3. Non of the candidates make much sense strategically. Arianne is a close relation and marriage is not necessary. If Arianne and Doran believe him to be who he claims, they must join. Margaery is a possibility, but she has been married three times already and I don't expect Mace Tyrell to be in any position to push for anything. Sansa has ties to the North, Riverlands, and Vale, but Rickon is poised to rule the North, Edmure and his heir live, and her marriage to Harry the Heir is key for Littlefinger's plans for the Vale.

The best option in my opinion, aside from Dany, is a marriage to a Velaryon daughter, if one is available. Aegon is gaining momentum and is poised to sit the throne by the end of TWOW. If he can convince the masses of his identity there is no need for a political marriage. It would probably be best to avoid a marriage to any great house and focus instead on keeping the blood pure, like the old days.

[Red Raven]

I could always be wrong, but I just don't think plague is in the offering. There is just too much other stuff to cover.

I think the grey plague is on the way. There wouldn't have been any point for Shireen and JonCon to be victims, the encounter with the stone men, or for Val's converstation with Jon Snow unless a plague in Westeros is coming down the pike. There has been too much discussion in the books about plagues for it to not have a role in the upcoming major events.

[three-eyed monkey]

Aegon's best marriage option would be Arrianne. All of the options are:

Arianne: best one since she is close, impulsive like Aegon and willing to support him.

Margeary: I think she is unlikely to win her trial and either dies or becomes disgraced.

Sansa: Unless she takes out Petyr and declares herself and rids herself of Harry really quickly, she would be too late.

Dany: Not possible because GRRM stated that there will be a Dance of Dragons.

Arianne might be the best match romantically but is she the best choice politically? I agree she's probably the most likely though.

And I agree that the whole Margaery situation is a bit too unstable with the pending trials. That and the fact that if poor Tommen dies then any king that would marry Margaery next would probably strip Aerys of his moniker in the process.

I also agree that it won't be Dany due to their upcoming Dance.

But I'm intrigued by the Mad Mouse. He tells Brienne he's hunting Sansa for the reward offered by Varys. Next thing he turns up in the Vale. Does he know Alayne is Sansa? Did he track her down or maybe just stumble upon her? Will he throw a spanner in Petyr's works and steal her away to KL? Her arrival there might just coincide with the Starks becoming a power in the north again, raising her stock, and this could be the best match for Aegon imo. Of course, on top of all that speculation, there is the marriage with Tyrion and the suspicion of Regicide to consider, but nothing that couldn't be overturned.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

I think the grey plague is on the way. There wouldn't have been any point for Shireen and JonCon to be victims, the encounter with the stone men, or for Val's converstation with Jon Snow unless a plague in Westeros is coming down the pike. There has been too much discussion in the books about plagues for it to not have a role in the upcoming major events.

Well, Shireen was a victim because it happens and GRRM wanted it that way. Greyscale is no stranger to the Seven Kingdoms. This is not some foreign disease that had landed and will spread like wildfire.

Connington got it because he saved Tryion. Why Tryion did not get it? Because thats not how the author wanted it. Connington is a man haunted by past failures and regret. The greyscale only adds to his sense of urgency in gaining some redemption.

Aside for the Great Spring Sickness, the only other plague I have seen is the Pale Mare inflicting Meereen. I see no foreshadowing of something larger. The Seven Kingdoms may be ripe for a plague, but it will be a plague of the undead most likely.

[three-eyed monkey]

Thus far, Connington has ruled out any marriage for Aegon b/c of Dany and he may be right to do so.

1. The Marcher Lords are the key to a consolidated Stormlands. Dorne, the Crownlands, allies from the Reach, and Aurane Waters can all be had ,IMO, without a marriage. The Riverlands hate the Lannisters/Freys/Boltons and will likely rebel again if they see Aegon winning victory after victory. Littlefinger will also see the writing on the wall. All of the forces Aegon will likely accumulate can be had without a committed marriage to any house.

2. It was not until after the Rebellion that Robert was talked into marrying Cersei. Aegon can likewise take the throne and then survey the landscape to see what his best options are.

3. Non of the candidates make much sense strategically. Arianne is a close relation and marriage is not necessary. If Arianne and Doran believe him to be who he claims, they must join. Margaery is a possibility, but she has been married three times already and I don't expect Mace Tyrell to be in any position to push for anything. Sansa has ties to the North, Riverlands, and Vale, but Rickon is poised to rule the North, Edmure and his heir live, and her marriage to Harry the Heir is key for Littlefinger's plans for the Vale.

The best option in my opinion, aside from Dany, is a marriage to a Velaryon daughter, if one is available. Aegon is gaining momentum and is poised to sit the throne by the end of TWOW. If he can convince the masses of his identity there is no need for a political marriage. It would probably be best to avoid a marriage to any great house and focus instead on keeping the blood pure, like the old days.

1. Agree.

2. Agree.

3. Will Littlefinger's plan be derailed?

I think the grey plague is on the way. There wouldn't have been any point for Shireen and JonCon to be victims, the encounter with the stone men, or for Val's converstation with Jon Snow unless a plague in Westeros is coming down the pike. There has been too much discussion in the books about plagues for it to not have a role in the upcoming major events.

Yeah, I think there'll be an outbreak for sure. It's just a question of how widespread it will be and what implications it might have.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

3. Will Littlefinger's plan be derailed?

I for one, am hoping that Sansa continues to grow as a force and ultimately kills her two-faced mentor. However, until such time arrives, I think that LF's plans will be altered, not necessarily changed.

As he said, he thrives on chaos and knows how to best position himself. By having the Vale assist Aegon, he will position himself to be of great importance to a young, impressionable king. Who, other than Tyrion, would be a better choice for hand of the king? Additionally, he can have his Lord Paramount status cemented, Sansa's marriage dissolved. When all is said and done, he may attempt to marry Sansa himself, which I think he really wants.

Just one obstacle remains. Varys!!!

[Red Raven]

Dany is definitely out. Aegon wants her to look cute and hand over her dragons. No way is she going to do that, she wants to rule in her own right.

Sansa is busy up north, Marge is a black widow, Arianne would be the most likely choice. It sounds like Dorne is pretty close to joining their cause and a marriage isn't necessary toward that end, but now that Quentyn is dead, Doran will have to change his plans and marry Arianne to Aegon if he wants one of his children to sit on the Iron Throne.

Greyscale is no stranger to the Seven Kingdoms. This is not some foreign disease that had landed and will spread like wildfire.

It may not be entirely foreign (though different strains may have evolved on each continent), it doesn't mean that it's not still deadly or couldn't spread quickly. Europe had good reason to fear subsequent outbreaks of the Black Death, it's because it was deadly each time it returned. Measles, polio...same thing. These people don't have vaccinations and if a plague hasn't been seen in a while, it's ripe to come back and infect a lot of people.

The Pale Mare is one kind of disease - more like ebola and if isolated it will burn out quickly. Greyscale is a different animal, it's not immediately deadly but it is highly contagious, has a longer incubation period and, in adults, especially the grey plague variant, is ultimately fatal. It has the potential to spread much farther and cause more damage than the Pale Mare. Some people are naturally immune for different reasons and Tyrion may be one of those people.

Plagues and fear of plagues are a reality on Planetos (hence all of the talk about them in different regions by different characters.) A population already weakened by war and starvation are prime victims for widespread disease to take hold. GRRM likes to include the complexities of war and life in a medieval-ish society, it would be unrealistic if a plague were not part of the upcoming story of Westeros.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

It may not be entirely foreign (though different strains may have evolved on each continent), it doesn't mean that it's not still deadly or couldn't spread quickly. Europe had good reason to fear subsequent outbreaks of the Black Death, it's because it was deadly each time it returned. Measles, polio...same thing. These people don't have vaccinations and if a plague hasn't been seen in a while, it's ripe to come back and infect a lot of people.

The Pale Mare is one kind of disease - more like ebola and if isolated it will burn out quickly. Greyscale is a different animal, it's not immediately deadly but it is highly contagious, has a longer incubation period and, in adults, especially the grey plague variant, is ultimately fatal. It has the potential to spread much farther and cause more damage than the Pale Mare. Some people are naturally immune for different reasons and Tyrion may be one of those people.

Plagues and fear of plagues are a reality on Planetos, a population already weakened by war and starvation are prime victims for widespread disease to take hold. GRRM likes to include the complexities of war and life in a medieval-ish society, it would be unrealistic if a plague were not part of the upcoming story of Westeros.

Unrealism in a fantasy series is not to be unexpected. That being said, I still see not signs of an upcoming plague. Here is why:

1. War in the North, War in Essos, War in the Reach, War in the Stormlands, and the War for the Iron Throne are all still very much on.

2. What becomes of Essos before and after Dany's departure.

3. The rebirth of House Stark. Rickon on Skagos. Arya as a Faceless Man. Sansa in the Vale. Bran settling in as the the great seer.

4. The fall of houses Lannister, Frey, and Bolton. Will the Lannisters by extinguished? Will Tyrion assume control?

5. Dancing Dragons. Dany v. Aegon?

6. Jon Snows fate. Is he dead? When will his true heritage be revealed? Will he accept who he is or remain on the Wall?

7. The role of the Iron Bank and the money its owed.

8. The Faith of the Seven and the faith of R'hllor are poised for major conflict.

9. Will Stannis be the new Nights King?

10. The fates of Jaime and Cersei, and their kids. The fates of Cat and the Brotherhood.

11. The War with the Others

There is much and more, but I think you get the point. There are only two books left (I think) and tons of material to be fleshed out. If he attends to introduce a mass plague, which I don't think that he does, and still finish the series on time, GRRM is a master that is on a level that even Tolkien cannot touch.

[thesmilingspider]

I vaguely remember it mentioned somewhere that GRRM intends for there to be an Iron Throne shuffle. With that premise in mind, and also Aegon's cyvasse game (overwhelm the opponent quickly, not much going for him later on...) I think this is a possible course of events:

Dorne may rally with Aegon. Whether they pledge full support or not, Aegon will want to take KL. JC, seeing that Dorne isn't in it to win it, will tell him no. JC dies of greyscale and Aegon pushes to KL, takes it over. He's got a solid Faith schooling from Lemore, so perhaps the Faith Militant will like him. From there, Aegon sits the Iron Throne, but it's precarious.

Of course, I've left out Myrcella because I honestly don't know what's going to happen with her.

[Red Raven]

What becomes of Essos before and after Dany's departure.

Once Dany leaves Essos no one will care. The fate of Essos isn't important to the story and if it's mentioned it will only be in passing.

Will Stannis be the new Nights King?

I seriously doubt Stannis is going to take a female Other for a paramour and cast a wacky spell over the rest of the Night's Watch. That's just a weird, pointless diversion and a waste of pagespace.

There is much and more, but I think you get the point. There are only two books left (I think) and tons of material to be fleshed out. If he attends to introduce a mass plague, which I don't think that he does, and still finish the series on time, GRRM is a master that is on a level that even Tolkien cannot touch.

If GRRM has room to list in detail every tiny morsel of food that goes into everyone's mouth and how much grease is running down their chins (Planetos is populated by sloppy eaters), there's plenty of room for the introduction and consequences of a widespread illness.

For the ongoing wars and upcoming battle with the Others, an epidemic would bring it to truly apocalyptic proportions and would have a massive ripple effect throughout Westeros.

As pointed out in other threads, epidemics have played a critical part in interactions and conflicts between civilizations throughout history. Fantasy has elements of unreality but GRRM has stated multiple times that he veers away from high fantasy and wants to being more levels of realism to his story; thinking about logistics and real world problems and the honest impact of war and other events on all levels of society. Being a student of history, I really don't think GRRM will miss that opportunity to bring a plague to Westeros. An analogue to the Black Death (which wiped out half of Europe in only two years and turned its civilization upside down) is too juicy of a morsel to pass up.

[chrisdaw]

I don't think the narrative allows for The GC to march too quickly on KL. The story needs some time to breathe, for the trials to happen, for the sandsnakes to soften KL up from within, for Bronn to make some moves in the Crown Lands and for the Dorne and JC pact to occur.

That said if the GC were to muster their full strength and meet the Tyrell host in the field under Mace's leadership I think they'd shred them. The GC are a professional army, they're not losing to the Westeros rag tags anytime soon despite their inferior numbers.

I expect all the above to occur and then for the GC to march on KL crushing all opposition in the field with the quote concerning the dubious loyalties of some of Mace's bannermen becoming relevant. The Sandsnakes will soften up KL and Varys will have the Faith open the KL gates for Aegon and the GC to march in unopposed.

Not sure if the Dornish forces will come with them or if they will head West, if Mace dies Willas may well declare for Aegon as Aegon will control KL, have the blessing of the HS and have Marge, and the Dornish forces would be threatening Willas from the SouthEast while he's trying to push back the Ironborn. It may be a case of Willas declaring for Aegon and the Dornish army coming to the aid of Highgarden.