Balon Greyjoy - one of the worst strategic commanders in the history of Westeros

[Inquisitor Glokta]

Hello all

After the information given about Balon Greyjoy, I think that he is the worst strategic commander at least in living history.

Here are the reasons why:

-He started a rebellion against: Westerlands, North, Stormlands, Vale, Reach and the Riverlands

How did he imagine this might play out? Did he actually hope, that about 20.000 ironborne, which I would put on the same level as Wildlings when it comes to actual war, could hope to stand a chance? They are good at raiding, but lack the discipline and numbers when it comes to large scale battles.

The combined military strength of those regions lies somewhere beyond 150.000 men plus the Lannister and Redwyne fleet.

His first rebellion ended with his 2 eldest sons being killed and his last living son being taken as hostage.

Now let's jump ahead in time, to the Wo5K:

The North offers Balon Greyjoy an alliance. What does he do? He invades the lands of his only possible ally and turns them into bitter enemies and got his last living son shortened around the crotch by a few inches. Again what did he think he could accomplish by that? The North is a relatively poor land, compared to the Westerlands.

He could hope to hold it for a few years maybe, but the rest of the war was over, he wouldn't stand a chance. There is no way the King on the IT would allow him to call himself king.

Why didn't Balon make use of the alliance with the north? He could have sent the whole Ironfleet to take Lannisport, after the Lannisters had called their banners and were away in the Riverlands. Lannisport/CR would provide them with a lot more gold and severely weaken the Crown.

More gold = more weapons and more ships + weakened IT = better chance of gaining something out of this rebellion

So why did Balon Greyjoy, in all his wisdom, decide to attack the north, his only potential ally?

I can see a few reasons: extreme stupidity, lack of any basic strategic knowledge, lack of anything that would resemble common sense and again: extreme stupidity

That's why I propose, that Balon Greyjoy must be the worst strategic commander in the living history of Westeros, if not since Aegon's Landing.

[Stan the Man]

Balon was bitter and angry at his last failed rebellion, and yes, he was a massive idiot.

even some of his vassals thought so- eg. Baelor Blacktyde- 'Balon is mad, Areon madder and Euron the maddest of them all'

[Jedi Reed]

In regards to the North, I think his own prejudice got in the way of any potential alliance being formed. That, and on the balance of things, he decided it was better to make an enemy of the Starks than the Lannisters.

His strategy in the War of the Five Kings wasn't all that different from his first rebellion. He thought to seize upon the instability of a newly installed monarch and divisions within the Seven Kingdoms. A strategy that will only get you so far once all your enemies remember their shared hatred of iron islanders.

Out of all the Greyjoys, Asha's got her head most screwed on. She had the best plan for taking something away from the war and keeping a bit of pride as well.

[Chaircat Meow]

There is already a thread on this subject that was started only two days ago, and has only run to five pages. Why not just post your analysis there? Or in the thousand and one previous iterations of this thread?

http://asoiaf.wester...sing-something/

[Inquisitor Glokta]

My guess is that he was counting on the war with the North (not to mention the stormy weather encountered in the narrow sea) distracting the Lannisters and Tyrells sufficiently that by the time they could get a fleet round to the eastern shore he would have already taken White Harbor, meaning he would hold the North at three choke points. Each shore would be heavily guarded by powerful Greyjoy fleets, while they could easily hold Moat Cailin from any army.

How did he plan on bringing ships to the Narrow Sea, put wheels on them? The only way to get ships there would be around the coast of Dorne and well... there are the Redwyne, Stannis' and the Royal fleet in the way...

He could never hope to put a sea blockade on the Narrow sea, which would allow any southern army to land troops somewhere north of White Harbor and march them on Moat Cailin from the North.

[Inquisitor Glokta]

There is already a thread on this subject that was started only two days ago, and has only run to five pages. Why not just post your analysis there? Or in the thousand and one previous iterations of this thread?

http://asoiaf.wester...sing-something/

Oh, didn't see that one and I'm usually around a couple of times every day. Sorry

[joluoto]

Balon misjudged Robert's rule. He thought Robert wouldn't be able to keep the Realm together if challenged. He probably also thought the Targ loyalist Houses would backstab him. None of these things happened. Instead all united against the Greyjoys.

War of the 5 Kings. Balon is more careful. This time he decide to think more like a raider and do what thw Ironborn always have done. Strike where there are no defenders. Thus he attack the North (he also is bitter that Ned Stark stole his son). The Ironborn are pirate and viking like. They attack suddenly without warning from the sea, and bail as soon as things get a little hot (and since they have ships they usually get out before the enemy reach them).

[Roose The Weddingcrasher]

Because many readers would want him to.

[Northernmonkey]

I don't think there's anything wrong with what Balon did in the WO5K. After everything that happen's, he's back where he started (minus a few hundred men). If he'd have allied with Robb Stark then it's possible that the Lannister's would have taken a lot more from him. Raiding the North was a sensible, low-risk strategy.

[Sansa_Stark]

In regards to the North, I think his own prejudice got in the way of any potential alliance being formed. That, and on the balance of things, he decided it was better to make an enemy of the Starks than the Lannisters.

I don't get why he would rather make an enemy of the Starks than the Lannisters. I mean, his first move in his previous war was to attack Lannisport and burn down the Lannister fleet. He clearly slighted Tywin back then.

[Stan the Man]

I don't get why he would rather make an enemy of the Starks than the Lannisters. I mean, his first move in his previous war was to attack Lannisport and burn down the Lannister fleet. He clearly slighted Tywin back then.

I think that was less to do with Tywin and more to do with the fact that Euron knew that the Lannisters fleet could threaten them if they left port, and so struck accordingly

[Lord Reaver]

-He started a rebellion against: Westerlands, North, Stormlands, Vale, Reach and the Riverlands

How did he imagine this might play out? Did he actually hope, that about 20.000 ironborne, which I would put on the same level as Wildlings when it comes to actual war, could hope to stand a chance? They are good at raiding, but lack the discipline and numbers when it comes to large scale battles.

The combined military strength of those regions lies somewhere beyond 150.000 men plus the Lannister and Redwyne fleet.

As you say, obviously he had no hope of winning against a unifiied 7k. But that wasn't his intent either. His first rebellion happened just a few years after Robert's. Clearly, he was banking on other Lords joining him in rebellion, due to past Targaryen loyalties and bad blood after the war. What he failed to take into consideration (probably because he'd never met the guy) was Robert's second ability (right after being a beast on the field), which was his rather gifted way of making friends from erstwhile enemies. Say what you will about Robert being a poor king, he was very very good about turning people from Targaryen loyalists into at least accepting his rule to the point where they would help him put down a rebellion like Balon's.

If Robert hadn't been the man he was, Balon could have found himself not fighting Westerlands, North, Stormlands, Vale, Reach and the Riverlands, but instead fighting two or three of those (North, Stormlands maybe Westerlands) with little support from the others, perhaps even with the Reach, Dorne and large parts of the Riverlands on HIS side. Still not the best prospects, but certainly not as given an outcome as what actually happened.

I'm much more inclined to think his actions in the Wo5K were not that well planned out, and fueled more by his hatred and bitterness from losing his first rebellion. But even so, they were far from stupid. He simply erred on the opposite side of what he'd done the first time, this time taking the side he felt would win anyway (the IT) and basically getting what he could out of the turmoil (spoils of the North).

[Victarion10]

He rebelled against Robert because he was a drunk usurper who was running the kingdom into huge debts, he didn't think all the lords would side with Robert, unfortunately for Balon they did. He was probably too naive when it came to the battle of the ships, they destroyed the Lannister fleet thanks to Euron and Victarion but they didn't account for Stannis Baratheon.

WOT5K was smart, in hindsight but not so much at the time. Had he attacked the Westerlands, after the Red Wedding he would be left to face the wrath of Tywin Lannister on his own with the backing of highgarden, effectively ending the greyjoy line. The Starks have a small navy, and probably couldn't even invade the Iron Islands, so in the WOT5K he was smart.

[MRHD]

As far as the Wo5K goes, in my most recent re-read it struck me as perhaps noteworthy that Balon seems to at least entertain Robb's letter until the language that makes it sound like Robb would be "giving" Balon his crown hits him. While I know he already had plans on the North, I can't help but wonder whether better wording might have won Balon over.

[Sansa_Stark]

I think that was less to do with Tywin and more to do with the fact that Euron knew that the Lannisters fleet could threaten them if they left port, and so struck accordingly

Yeah, but why didn't they strike accordingly again? I mean, clearly the Lannisters were in a tight position at that point. Stannis coming at them(IIRC), Robb fighting them.

So Balon isn't afraid of Tywin's wrath if he has no ships? Why not do it again?

[Steinnis]

Balon was stubborn, proud, and held a grudge against the Starks, but he still believed in the Old Way. When Theon brought the message, he knew Robb was in the Riverlands and the North was ripe for the taking. Strategically I think his attack was pretty sound, take Moat Cailin, Torrhen's square and Deepwood. As others have said these are 3 pretty good chokepoints to hold off an attack from the south, and more importantly accesible by the sea, where the Ironborn's strength comes from. Theon took WF for his own reasons, Balon never ordered to do it, because he knew he wouldn't be able to hold it.

[The Frosted King]

He is in the running, definitely.

He took two useless seats in Deepwood and Torrhen's.

He took an important choke point in Moat Cailin.

He then expected all to go well.

If he had any sense, he would've stayed on his rocks and did nothing.

If he had to be king, he should've burned the west n forced Tywin to come home.

What he did was crack the shield that covered him, and only new more pressing problems spared him the boot he's so clearly in need of.

[Stan the Man]

Yeah, but why didn't they strike accordingly again? I mean, clearly the Lannisters were in a tight position at that point. Stannis coming at them(IIRC), Robb fighting them.

So Balon isn't afraid of Tywin's wrath if he has no ships? Why not do it again?

Because Euron made the plan in the Greyjoy rebellion, and he wasn't there in the WO5K

[Erkan12]

1- Roose

2- Balon

[The Broke Howard Hughes]

How many times did he stage rebellions to gain independence only to be offered independence and the go-ahead to roam the west and wreak havoc with Robb's full blessing and support. But what does he do? Say no. For no logical reason whatsoever. He could have asked for almost anything and got it.