Tywin the Great or Tywin the Small

[Celestial]

Many people agree that Tywin was not such a great military leader, so I'm not going to insist on his military blunders. But most people agree that Tywin was a great politician. But was he?

I have my doubts and I tried to make a list of Tywin's political mistakes:

1. Tywin had been Hand of the King for 20 years, one of the most important lords for more than 30. Yet, when the Wot5K starts, the House of Lannister is utterly isolated! How come Tywin failed to cultivate any alliances in 30-40 years of power, in a country where building coalitions is the only way to control it? That alone should disqualify Tywin on the spot as an able politician. He married Cersei to the new king (which, btw, was Jon Arryn's idea) and, afterwards, for more than 15 years he sat on his ass? Both Robb Stark and Renly Baratheon start the war with powerfull allies. Yet the Lannisters are utterly isolated. It took a tremendous amount of luck to get them out of that situation, predicated on the short-sighted infighting among their enemies.

2. Just before the war, the tensions are rising between Stark and Lannister. Tyrion gets arrested by Catelyn. The latter accused Tyrion that he tried to murder Bran and she did so in front of scores of witness. Later, Tywin reaches the inn with his army and hangs the innkeep. It is very unplausible that he never heard about Catelyn's accusation. All the inn's personnel witnessed it. What has Tywin done to clarify what was behind the accusation? Nothing! He never mentions it, despite the fact that a short conversation with Tyrion would lead him to discover one of the traitors in the Small Council - Petyr Baelish.

3. The war begins and strange things are happening in King's Landing. Even from afar in the Riverlands, Tywin takes notice. Let's hear his assessment: "I blame those jackanapes on the council—our friend Petyr, the venerable Grand Maester, and that cockless wonder Lord Varys. What sort of counsel are they giving Joffrey when he lurches from one folly to the next?... If Cersei cannot curb the boy, you must. And if these councillors are playing us false . . ."

Fast forward after the Blackwater battle. The same Tywin Lannister gives leave to Littlefinger to assume control of no less than the Vale, while Kevan rushes to praise LF, who "continues to prove his loyalty". Nice job, Tywin. You have 3 potential traitors in your small council and you've just allowed one of them to become a Lord paramount.

None of those three should have been allowed any access to sensitive information or decision making anymore. In fact, a simple inquiry into the events leading to Tyrion's arrest would expose that LF tried to push Stark and Lannister against each other. Tywin does absolutely nothing.

4. The war is over, the Lannister have (apparently) triumphed. The former rebels need to be taken firm in hand. The Riverlands are the hotbed of the rebellion and need a tight a control. Tywin needs to appoint to the most important seats in the Riverlands some persons who are loyal, but also capable and, very important, rather uninvolved in the previous devastation of the Riverlands. He needs someone who can control the Riverlords but, at the same time, mollify them. Whom does he appoint? Littlefinger, who had no intention to even set foot in Harrenhall, Emmon Frey, who even his wife thinks he is a moron, and Lancel Lannister, who has no clue about actual governing. In addition, two of them, Emmon and Lancel, are directly associated with the Frey and Lannister families, who are probably the most loathed in the region.

5. Joffrey gets poisoned and Tyrion is put on trial. We see then Kevan coming with an offer to Tyrion to be sent to the wall, because he is "Joanna's son". It's great that Tywin shows such concern for his son, but he would do well to remember that Tyrion was not just his son, he was also part of the government. The moment he refused to cooperate, he should have never appeared again in an open court because he simply knows too much. If he chooses to spill the beans on the skeletons in the Lannister closet, that it would be a PR disaster.

These are some of the most obvious blunders. In conclusion, Tywin is overrated as a politician as well.

[Mladen]

I am sorry, but these don't seem like blunders to me... And I believe that Tywin was indeed a great politician. But, let we disect your list:

1. Not only House Lannister is isolated, half of the Kingdom is too... North didn't have some powerful allies but Tullys, who were already suffering by the hands of Lannisters. Lysa closed all the doors to possible unions, so did Martells. Greyjoys too. We have connection between Renly and Loras, and that's that. There is a sense of isolation between Kingdoms at the beginning. Also, luck has nothing to do with alliance with Tyrells. They were offered what they wanted and they accepted it. It's easy job...

2. Even Tyrion wasn't sure about LF, and they only talked before and after the battle at Green Fork, so the matter about arrest was already mute since Tyrion is free.

3. Tywin was smart not to trust anyone, but even smarter not to turn himself into paranoid. LF/Lysa Arryn match was perfect soilution given that Royces were publically supporting Robb's cause and wanted to join fight, but Lysa refused. By marrying LF to Lysa, he prevented Robb Stark of obtaining another 40 000 men.

4. Freys were hated by everyone in the Kingdom, so there were no way of making them as Lords Paramount. So, he named LF with seat at Harrenhall, which is natural, adding Genna's husband, who is his in-law with mighty castle of Riverrun, and gave Lancel Darry castle. All of this would ensure tight control of the Riverlands if Lancel didn't turn to Faith after Blackwater and LF stayed in Eyrie.

5. As far as we know, Tywin never knew about Jaime and Cersei, and considered Stannis a liar(although I was never much keen to believe that). Tyrion screwed Tywin with Oberyn, made entire trial political fiasco. Tywin knew Tyrion did nothing wrong, but nonetheless he wanted him at Wall, far from power. This is shitty thing to do as a father, but doesn't speak a lot about him as politician.

All in all, Tywin was incredibly smart man who knew how to make an offer you won't deny. And he fought with his enemies to the last drop of blood. Look at what his men did to Elia and her children, or Red wedding... Tywin was brilliant, but ruthless man who believed he would never be beaten.

[Naathi Prince]

1. Tywin is not isolated, and the Lannisters don't really need allies. Tywin, rightly or not, believed that he could defeat the Tullys, the Starks, and the Arryns all at once. Furthermore, we know that Tywin DID try to forge alliances. He wanted Jaime married to Lysa and Cersei married to Rhaegar. It is the fault of Cersei and Aerys that this failed, not Tywin. His current alliance building asset is Tyrion, who was rejected as a groom repeatedly.

2. No one cares about legality in Westeros.

3. Who is going to tell Tywin why Cat suspected Tyrion? Only littlefinger and Varys know. Pycelle is loyal to Tywin, Varys' game is unknown to literally anyone, and Littlefinger has repeatedly helped the Lannisters. Only an omniscient being would know all of this information and Tywin's not that great.

4. Tywin's strategy with the riverlords has already succeeded. Every Riverlord has bent the knee, he didn't try to force Lancel or Kevan as their new Lord (and considering the fact that LF has no kids, its a temporary appointment), and the Freys had to be given something for their role in stopping Robb.

5. What does Tyrion know thats sensitive? The incest? everyone has heard about the incest.

[mrunderhill]

Like with real history, when someone becomes great and is praised constantly it becomes in fashion to write 'new' thesis' about how they were really not that great. I am very busy at the moment, but will write an in depth reply when I have time.

[Knight Of Winter]

Nice post :)

1. This indeed in one of his biggest mistakes. Where other Paramount houses were carefully making friends and allies by marrying each other, Tywin apparently has done nothing of the sort - and had to pay its consequences at the beggining of WOT5K. He was probably so fixed on idea of his daughter becoming queen that he refused all other possible matches for her. And it's not for lack of opportunity - for Doran's mother offered him Oberyn and Elia for Jaime and Cersei (which he turns down by insulting Dorne), and Sumner Crakehall tried to sit Jaime next to Lysa during and feast (btw, why is Lord Crakehall doing that? It should be Tywin's job? ). On top of that - he apparently never considered remarrying, despite him being one of most desirable bachelors in 7K and possibility of creating powerful alliance.

So, at the beginning of AGOT, we have Stark/Baratheon/Arryn/Tully alliance, while Tywin is left isolated - and only LF's machinations stopped Lysa from entering the war on alliance's side.

2. He very likely knew about Catelyn's accusation. His mindset was more in line with "right or wrong, nobody f*cks with Lannisters". As for why didn't he knew of Petyr's treachery, I think the blame should mainly fall on Tyrion's back, who apparently never told his father despite having multiple opportunities to do so.

3. Again, thanks to Tyrion, Tywin had no idea of LF's treachery and thought LF was genuinely of Lannister's side. Though one could argue he should have sniffed out or at least suspected LF.

4. Same argument as above. Besides - it's obvious he's more concerned about his family's advancement than realm's welfare - that's the guy who wanted Janos Slynt to become NW commander after all. So it's no surprise he appointed Lancel (Lannister) and Emmon (Lannister-in-law) as lords.

5. How did Tyrion refuse to cooperate? He was innocent of Joffrey's murder, but never said anything at the trial that could jeopardize Lannisters. Unless I misremember something.

[The Fallen]

` Another of his follies was allowing the Tyrells to kill Joffrey and pin the blame on Tyrion. Tyrion, the guy who negotiated with Dorne to keep them neutral, the one who sent Littlefinger to negotiate with the Tyrells and bring them in as allies (he had wanted to negotiate himself, but couldn't leave King's Landing). Those two moves saved the Lannisters. But Tywin refused to give him any credit and decides to banish his most important advisor/asset.

What exactly did Tywin do that was so brilliant, again?

[BarristonTheBAMF]

1. I agree with other posters, the fact that he wasn't able to secure alliances via marriage wasn't due to lack of trying, nor was he totally unsuccessful. I mean, his daughter did marry the king. Jaime is KG, can't marry... and Tyrion is, well... Tyrion. Tywin made up for lack of other major allies by hiring sell sword companies and such, plus seemingly has more vassal lords than many of the other major players. The Tully/Arryn/Stark bonds were formed long ago by Hoster/Jon/Rickard with marriages.

2. Could never have really found out Littlefinger's stirring the pot without Varys chirping in... and apparently he never did so (obv because he wanted chaos at the time to set the stage for Aegon)

3. Didn't have much choice but to rely on Littlefinger at the time. If not for his behind the scenes work, Lannister/Tyrell alliance never happens, and Blackwater goes differently. So would actually have to credit him here for trusting Littlefinger by putting a pretty worthwhile carrot in front of him and making him work for it.

4. Lack of options. Did what he could, and as of last writings Riverlands have bent the knee.

5. Was just a bad situation for the Lannisters in general. Kind of a damned if you do no matter how this went down.

[Celestial]

I am sorry, but these don't seem like blunders to me... And I believe that Tywin was indeed a great politician. But, let we disect your list:

1. Not only House Lannister is isolated, half of the Kingdom is too... North didn't have some powerful allies but Tullys, who were already suffering by the hands of Lannisters.

The Tullys ARE powerful allies, since they controlled one of the main regions. Before the RR, Rickard Stark set up strong alliances with the Baratheon, Arryn and Tully. Granted, Tywin did not have that many options, but he had at least 15 years to reach out to the Tyrells, for instance, to form a powerful block who could support the Lannister succession to the IT, well before the "friendship" between Renly and Loras bloomed. It is not unlikely for a new dinasty to face challenges to her power in the beginning (think of Aenys/Maegor and the Faith rebellion, for instance). When Robert died, Tywin had no ally with an interest in Joffrey's succession. The Tyrells were firmly in Renly's camp and only after the latter was assassinated they sided with the Lannister, while the Martells took Myrcella and the other rewards Tyrion promised them and never lifter a finger to help the Lannister, all while plotting behind Tywin's back.

Also, luck has nothing to do with alliance with Tyrells.

The Shadowbaby disagrees. While Renly was alive, the Tyrells and all their bannermen were thinking feverishly only how to bring the Lannisters down.

Even Tyrion wasn't sure about LF, and they only talked before and after the battle at Green Fork, so the matter about arrest was already mute since Tyrion is free.

Tyrion knows LF framed him, warns Tywin that LF cannot be trusted and strongly opposes allowing him to leave for the Vale.

Tywin was smart not to trust anyone, but even smarter not to turn himself into paranoid.

Tywin himself advised Tyrion to investigate and root out the traitor.

It's not as if that the matter was looked into and everything settled. Tywin simply forgot that "he was wondering how their heads might look on the wall beside Lord Stark’s".

Seriously, suspecting that the likes of LF, Varys and Pycelle might be up to no good is "becoming paranoid"? If Tywin can't recognize such obvious intrigants, he is a bigger fool than Ned Stark.

By marrying LF to Lysa, he prevented Robb Stark of obtaining another 40 000 men.

At that moment, Robb Stark was about to die so he prevented nothing.

Freys were hated by everyone in the Kingdom, so there were no way of making them as Lords Paramount. So, he named LF with seat at Harrenhall, which is natural, adding Genna's husband, who is his in-law with mighty castle of Riverrun, and gave Lancel Darry castle. All of this would ensure tight control of the Riverlands if Lancel didn't turn to Faith after Blackwater and LF stayed in Eyrie.

The idea that Lancel was the one to make the difference in the Riverlands is hilarious to say the least. Neither Emmon, nor Lancel can make the River lords either respect, or fear them.

As far as we know, Tywin never knew about Jaime and Cersei, and considered Stannis a liar(although I was never much keen to believe that). Tyrion screwed Tywin with Oberyn, made entire trial political fiasco. Tywin knew Tyrion did nothing wrong, but nonetheless he wanted him at Wall, far from power.

It does not really matter whether Tywin believed the incest. What matters was that the rumor was floating around. Tywin had to consider that Tyrion could name Joffrey a bastard simply out of vengeance, regardless whether it was true or not. Tyrion also could name Tywin, in front of Oberyn, the dornish noblemen and the whole court, as the one who ordered the slaughter of Elia and her children. He could name Tywin as complicit in the Red Wedding.

That is why members of the regime are not usually dealt with public trials unless they agree to "confess". If they don't, they are judged behind closed doors and disposed of in dark cells, in the middle of the night.

[Celestial]

and the Lannisters don't really need allies.

If you want to argue in Tywin's defense, that's fine enough, but don't tell me that the sky is green, will you?

Furthermore, we know that Tywin DID try to forge alliances. He wanted Jaime married to Lysa and Cersei married to Rhaegar. It is the fault of Cersei and Aerys that this failed.

Which is absolutely no reason not to persist.

The alliance between the North/Stormlands and the Vale occurred due to the fostering of the Ned/Robert with Jon Arryn. The alliance between Renly/Tyrells was initiated when Loras became Renly's squire.

What exactly prevented Tywin from fostering (particularly after 283) the likes of Edmure Tully, Renly Baratheon, or one of the Tyrell sons?

His current alliance building asset is Tyrion, who was rejected as a groom repeatedly.

His best alliance building asset has been himself, from 276 onwards.

Who is going to tell Tywin why Cat suspected Tyrion? Only littlefinger and Varys know. Pycelle is loyal to Tywin, Varys' game is unknown to literally anyone, and Littlefinger has repeatedly helped the Lannisters. Only an omniscient being would know all of this information and Tywin's not that great.

Tyrion knows and he has repeatedly warned Tywin about LF's dubious loyalty. "He will sell us just as quick" were the words.

Tywin's strategy with the riverlords has already succeeded. Every Riverlord has bent the knee, he didn't try to force Lancel or Kevan as their new Lord (and considering the fact that LF has no kids, its a temporary appointment), and the Freys had to be given something for their role in stopping Robb.

Brynden Blackfish disagrees.

The problem is that Tywin's strategy of "shock and terror" works only as long as the Lannisters are strong. Their forces had already been depleted in the war against Robb Stark and on the Blackwater. Militarily, they have become second fiddle to the Tyrells, which are trying to overtake the Lannisters (and Tywin is aware of this).

The attempted marriage between Sansa and Willas is more than a little suspicious. What if the Tyrells instigate a rebellion in the Riverlands to further erode the remnants of the Lannister forces? Are Emmon Frey and Lancel Lannister the right men to deal with it?

What does Tyrion know thats sensitive? The incest? everyone has heard about the incest.

There is a huge difference between a rumor and a confirmation coming from a member of the Lannister family.

[Gurkhal]

Like with real history, when someone becomes great and is praised constantly it becomes in fashion to write 'new' thesis' about how they were really not that great. I am very busy at the moment, but will write an in depth reply when I have time.

I agree 110% with this. Would you mind if I added this to my signature?

[ejhawman]

Excellent analysis, OP, and great discussion sparked.

Tywin the Small, for my money. Some things he was doing the best he could, but the lack of long-term alliances seems particularly curious. Tywin is just an abrasive man.

[Celestial]

2. He very likely knew about Catelyn's accusation. His mindset was more in line with "right or wrong, nobody f*cks with Lannisters". As for why didn't he knew of Petyr's treachery, I think the blame should mainly fall on Tyrion's back, who apparently never told his father despite having multiple opportunities to do so.

3. Again, thanks to Tyrion, Tywin had no idea of LF's treachery and thought LF was genuinely of Lannister's side. Though one could argue he should have sniffed out or at least suspected LF.

The problem is that Tywin knew there was a strong likelihod that he had a rat in his house, so to speak. The list of suspects is also fairly limited. And Tyrion warned him against LF repeatedly. Has it never occurred to Tywin to ask Tyrion whether he actually has evidence of LF's disloyalty?

Remember that Tyrion also suspected that someone was ratting out his plans to Cersei. He actually took steps to discover the perpetrator - and he was succesful!

Same argument as above. Besides - it's obvious he's more concerned about his family's advancement than realm's welfare - that's the guy who wanted Janos Slynt to become NW commander after all. So it's no surprise he appointed Lancel (Lannister) and Emmon (Lannister-in-law) as lords.

That's true, but nepotism has never been an indicator of competence in politics. Look at Cersei - Tywin put so much effort in making her a queen and she brought the Lannisters to the brink of disaster.

How did Tyrion refuse to cooperate? He was innocent of Joffrey's murder, but never said anything at the trial that could jeopardize Lannisters. Unless I misremember something.

He refused Tywin's offer and instead accepted Oberyn to champion him, when the latter was strongly hinting at a rebellion against Tommen in favor of Myrcella (in which Tyrion was supposed to play a part) and at assassinating Tywin.

Tyrion himself thinks that he "kicked lord Tywin's plans to splinters".

If Tywin was as astute a politician as some claim, he should have known that trying Tyrion in an open court was dangerous. What actually happened was just one of the many possibilities.

[Naathi Prince]

If you want to argue in Tywin's defense, that's fine enough, but don't tell me that the sky is green, will you?

Which is absolutely no reason not to persist.

The alliance between the North/Stormlands and the Vale occurred due to the fostering of the Ned/Robert with Jon Arryn. The alliance between Renly/Tyrells was initiated when Loras became Renly's squire.

What exactly prevented Tywin from fostering (particularly after 283) the likes of Edmure Tully, Renly Baratheon, or one of the Tyrell sons?

His best alliance building asset has been himself, from 276 onwards.

Tyrion knows and he has repeatedly warned Tywin about LF's dubious loyalty. "He will sell us just as quick" were the words.

Brynden Blackfish disagrees.

The problem is that Tywin's strategy of "shock and terror" works only as long as the Lannisters are strong. Their forces had already been depleted in the war against Robb Stark and on the Blackwater. Militarily, they have become second fiddle to the Tyrells, which are trying to overtake the Lannisters (and Tywin is aware of this).

The attempted marriage between Sansa and Willas is more than a little suspicious. What if the Tyrells instigate a rebellion in the Riverlands to further erode the remnants of the Lannister forces? Are Emmon Frey and Lancel Lannister the right men to deal with it?

There is a huge difference between a rumor and a confirmation coming from a member of the Lannister family.

The Lannisters have the biggest and best army. They don't need allies. With Jaime in the KG and Cersei married to the King (who is his ally, I might add!), he's pretty well set. As far as Littlefinger, if you have someone who is a mercenary, the best thing to do is pay him! Which he did. As for the Blackfish, he's not a lord, is he?

Also, if you think that people will suddenly care about TOmmen's legitimacy because of the courtroom ranting of the Imp, you are sorely mistaken.

[Celestial]

3. Didn't have much choice but to rely on Littlefinger at the time. If not for his behind the scenes work, Lannister/Tyrell alliance never happens, and Blackwater goes differently. So would actually have to credit him here for trusting Littlefinger by putting a pretty worthwhile carrot in front of him and making him work for it.

4. Lack of options. Did what he could, and as of last writings Riverlands have bent the knee.

3. You are confusing things. Tywin is not the one who sends LF to negotiate with the Tyrells. Prior to the Blackwater, there might not have been a choice, but after, the situation was different.

4. Just not true. Daven Lannister for instance. He could have also tried to use some of the major seats in Riverlands (Harrenhall or Riverrun) to try to pry away some of the Tyrell bannermen from them. Kevan Lannister suggested Cersei just as much when he recommended her to name Matthis Rowan or Randyl Tarly as Hand to weaken Highgarden.

From the Westerlands, a good choice could be Forley Prester (whom Jaime considers fit even for Handship) and was competent enough to save a part of Jaime's army from the Battle of the Camps. Strongboar Crakehall could also be considered. None of them are heirs in the Westerlands, so they would have a vested interest in the preeminence of the Lannister power (as they would lose their new seats otherwise) and, unlike Emmon and Lancel, they could be counted on to do some governing.

[Naathi Prince]

In the end though, the author presents Tywin as an absolute champ at being a Westerosi lord very frequently, jumping through hoops to prove otherwise is a bit silly.

[Celestial]

The Lannisters have the biggest and best army.

This is just not true.

[Chaircat Meow]

Tywin did make an alliance with the head of the biggest powerbloc in westeros after the rebellion against Aerys, winning the gratitude of Robert and Jon Arryn by brutally murdering the Targaryen heirs. It went wrong because Jaime and Cersei had a thing for each other. Tywin didn't want the war that started in GoT, his children pushed him into it.

LF was given the paramount hood to neutralize the Vale. He was a recipe for weakness there, as he lacked the powerbase or social standing to mobilize Lysa's lords. He could paralyze only and he would be fully dependent on the Iron Throne for support.

But it is weird, I agree. It is not just Tywin though. Why doesn't Tyrion tell his father about LF's involvement in the dagger plot when Tywin brings up the question of deceitful councilors in GoT? Why does Tyrion never mention the dagger, but use weak arguments to suggest LF is untrustworthy? Shrugs. Tbh, I always thought the dagger plot was a late addition, and the author's subsequent need to save LF from its consequences created a slight plot hole, but if you want to make a huge deal out of it I guess that's your prerogative.

edit: Tywin is a very good general as well, his only real mistake is giving command of the second army to Stafford (and I can think of military greats who made similarly foolish appointments, i.e. Napoleon-Ney).

[Knight Of Winter]

The Lannisters have the biggest and best army. They don't need allies. With Jaime in the KG and Cersei married to the King (who is his ally, I might add!), he's pretty well set. As far as Littlefinger, if you have someone who is a mercenary, the best thing to do is pay him! Which he did. As for the Blackfish, he's not a lord, is he?

This argument doesn't hold water. After Robert's death, Tywin is left to fight the war completely alone against everyone except Dorne and Vale. Why - because he had no allies. Later, he manages to win the war after Tyrion saved the day by... negotiating an alliance.

[Chaircat Meow]

This argument doesn't hold water. After Robert's death, Tywin is left to fight the war completely alone against everyone except Dorne and Vale. Why - because he had no allies. Later, he manages to win the war after Tyrion saved the day by... negotiating an alliance.

Tywin has two children who are worth much on the marriage market, and they were both removed from it in various ways. How was he supposed to make an alliance with the Tyrells before Robert died? (note: Tywin did intend to make use of C + J in SoS when they were available)

He could have promised Mace stuff while Robert lived I guess, but that's idiotically insinuating you want the king dead, so ...

Dorne is out of consideration as a serious ally, and the rest are tied to the lannisters via the Cersei-Robert marriage.

[Naathi Prince]

This is just not true.

Yes it is, they have an army of 35,000 that they raised in days, plus another force led by Stafford, plus more in reserve. Not to mention the quality of these troops is often remarked on in a favorable light.

This is just not true.

The only evidence that this isn't true is Renly's boasts. The Lannisters men all fought in the Greyjoy rebellion, they're seasoned and well trained and equipped, and they have over 40k of them. They are the greatest House in Westeros and Tywin made them that way.

This argument doesn't hold water. After Robert's death, Tywin is left to fight the war completely alone against everyone except Dorne and Vale. Why - because he had no allies. Later, he manages to win the war after Tyrion saved the day by... negotiating an alliance.

Who has allies in this war? The Starks have only the Tullys, Renly has only the Tyrells, and everyone else has no one.