GoT Illyrio and Varys Conversation

[RedFishBlackFish]

I've been rereading GoT and noticed something I missed with my initial read of the Varys/Illyrio conversation that Arya overhears in the Red Keep. Here's a selection of the passage:

"If one Hand can die, why not a second?" Replied the man with the accent and forked yellow beard. "You have danced the dance before, my friend."//"Before is not now, and this Hand is not the other," the scarred man said as they stepped out into the hall.//"Perhaps so," the forked beard replied, pausing to catch his breath after the long time. "Nonetheless, we must have time. The princess is with child. The khal will not bestir himself until his son is born. You know how they are these savages."

Based on this, it seems that Varys was in some way involved in the death of Jon Arryn, but when we learn that Littlefinger convinced Lysa to poison her husband, there is now mention of Varys' involvement...at least that I can recall. Am I missing something here? If not, it seems that this could be a rare instance of Littlefinger and Varys working together. We know that Varys wants to destabilize the realm, which he would accomplish with the death of Arryn and later Stark. We are told that "Littlefinger only cares about Littlefinger," and the death of both of these men could allow Littlefinger to advance his position. It seems that both Littlefinger and Varys would benefit from the death of Jon Arryn, while Varys is a little hesitant about offing Stark just yet.

[the_one_who_was_promised]

Or, maybe Varys believes he had a hand in Jon Arryn's death - if that is possible? For instance, perhaps he actually believes that it was the Lannisters' work and that he was instrumental in accomplishing this, just as LF was key in persuading Joffrey to execute Ned contrary to everyone's wishes?

It does bring up an interesting prospect as to whether LF and Varys were working with each other (I certainly questioned it during a recent re-read too) however although they are as devious as each other, they seem to constantly be at loggerheads so I do also wonder whether they could have worked together for this.

But, when looking at the excerpt, it does say, "if one hand can die, why not another??" Hence, it might have been GRRM's intention that we interpret this as a potential plotting of Ned's demise. Saying "die" rather than "kill", "have killed" or "murdered" is a lot more ambiguous IMO, and may just be indicative of the fact as far as their knowledge goes, the Hand has simply died, rather than been killed for instance.

[TheWizard]

Who says its Jon Arryn? Could be one of Aerys random hands that he killed.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Perhaps Varys knew about the plot from Littlefinger and Cersei to kill Jon Arryn (Cersei must have been involved right?), but didn't stop them (hence the "you have danced the dance before, my friend" part of the conversation), because he knew it would mean Ned would come south, and he wanted Ned closer by for the next part of his plan, which was keeping Robert safe from the Lannisters for a few more years. Perhaps Varys believes that, if he can manage to keep Robert alive for a few years, before the Lannisters kill him, he can convince Ned to join Aegon, and thus add the North to his list of allies. Varys knows that Ned is much easier to stir than Robb, because Robb is young, all the way up in the north, and mostly unknown to him. So Varys could be hoping of making Ned a future ally in his pro-Targaryen cause, withouth manking Ned feel like he's betraying Robert. Ned would never betray Robert.

[Jon of the Dead]

No, it makes no sense for Varys to kill Jon Arryn if him and Illyrio are trying to delay the war. Jon's murder was the catalyst for the war.

Also, as The Wizard says, Varys served for many Hands:

- Tywin: not dead but resigned. Maybe Varys convinced Aerys of naming Jaime into the kingsguard, which was the final straw for Tywin

- Owen Merrywether: Exiled.

- Jon Connington: Exiled and then used as a pawn in Varys' Aegon Plot. Very similar to what happened with Barristan: Varys convinced Cersei to kick him out of service, and then he becomes a new addition to Varys and Illyrio's plans

- Qarlton Chelsted: burned alive

- Rossart: killed by Jaime

There are lots of indications of Varys fueling Aerys' paranoia to the max, pointing traitors everywhere. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if Varys was behind the loss of all these Hands. He could've removed Tywin (Aerys' most powerful ally) and Chelsted and Connington (which appeared to be relatively efficient and loyal Hands). He's pulling a similar shit with Cersei now. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if Qyburn turns out to be Varys' spy, that would explain how he got all of Varys' contacts so fast.

[RedFishBlackFish]

I agree. The conversation could be referring to any of the other hands that were removed from office or killed.

However, I'm not as convinced that Varys wouldn't benefit from the death of Jon Arryn. Varys and Illyrio realize they need more time AFTER they learn Dany is pregnant with Drogo's child and realize Drogo won't cross the narrow sea until after his son is born. This passage could suggest they thought Drogo would arrive sooner, in which case, offing Jon Arryn would be a very good move.

[Skadhi]

Let's not forget Jon Connington, who was Aerys' Hand before he was sent into exile. The next thing you know, everyone thought he drank himself to death and that was that.

As we know, Connington wasn't dead. Varys approached almost as soon as he could about Aegon and convinced him it was necessary Westeros thought he was dead and buried.

Lysa killed Jon Arryn at LF's urging, saying it was the only way they could be together. It's at the end of SoS just before LF shoves her out the Moon Door.

[The Snowfyre Chorus]

Let's not forget Jon Connington, who was Aerys' Hand before he was sent into exile... Varys approached almost as soon as he could about Aegon and convinced him it was necessary Westeros thought he was dead ...

After the revelations made in ADwD, Connington becomes the likely suspect for this reference. If that is the case, it certainly justifies Varys' comment that "this Hand is not the other" - it's hard to imagine men (and scenarios) more different than Ned Stark and Jon Connington.

[Kanishka Prabhudesai]

was cersei involved in jon arryns murder??