Aegon's next move [ADwD Spoilers]

[Tony Stark of Winterfell]

what do you think (f?)aegon's next move is going to be? now that he has successfully landed in westeros and taken over a few holdfasts, the next step would be alliances. Do you think he would marry arianne for Dornish support? or would he prefer margaery tyrell for the much larger army she comes with?

he would do well to repulse the iron born from the reach, that would win him great favor among the lords of westeros. if he plays his cards right sweeping the lannisters aside shouldn't be too hard, considering that the tyrells love to be on the winning side (even though they were on the wrong side in roberts rebellion) and they couldn't like the lannisters less at this point.

i doubt he will be able to win over the north though, with winter already here and therefore no real way to force them into submission (invading by land from the south is madness). even if he gets incredibly lucky and crosses moat cailin or decides to send forces by sea, the north is just too huge and cold at this point. we all saw what happened to stannis's southron knights in the north. without dragons i doubt it is possible.

[hecameburning]

I think there is gonna be a serious struggle between Aegon and Euron in the Reach and throughout the South and Euron will gain control over the Reach and possibly even more. Aegon will prove to be incompetent and set up huge problems for Dany when she gets there and cause Westeros to be in utter disrepair and turmoil even more than it is now once Winter sets in and the Others begin their moves South.

Euron will be reaving and spreading like wildfire throughout. Aegon will be dead and will have left a bad taste in the mouth of the people of Westeros and leaving them unsure of the Dany`s competency as a Targ or even unsure of her legitimacy as a Targ.

[sanguinolentum]

It's hinted at in the advance Arrianne chapters that Aegon has already marched on Storm's End. I feel like I remember the 2nd arrianne chapter saying he has already taken it, or that in a discussion of said chapter that someone said grrm confirmed aegon takes storm's end, but by a ruse or something. I think it remains to be seen if Aegon will go for a Dornish marriage alliance. He might be willing but JonCon might not want it to happen, not that Aegon listens much to him anymore. Even though the tyrells' were royalists during robert's rebellion, i don't think aegon forces are likely to ally with them because of their dubious alliances with renly then then two lannisters marriage alliances. I think Aegon is more likely to sow dissent within lessor Reach lords' fealty to the Tyrells. I think if Aegon could get Tarly to flip on the tyrells lot's of other reach lords would follow. This might fit in with Grrm saying Loras' older brothers would have a larger part to play in the two subsequent books. I've been wondering if Varys might show up once/if Aegon takes Storm's end. Varys could prove pivotal to aegon's diplomacy to westeros. I'm also conflicted over aegon's possible diplomatic alliance possibilities though. Aegon has a foothold in the Stormlands, to which the Marcher lords owe fealty. If he does ally with Dorne that might preclude alliances with any Marcher or Reach lords. Maybe a lessor extent for the Reach lords, since they are under assault by the ironborn. There are a lot of variables here for Aegon. I think his diplomatic situation after he takes storm's end (i'm assuming he does) will be more important over the course of tWoW than any possible repercussions from Dany's arrival. I think Dany's going to spend tWoW laying waste to Essos, and only towards the very end of tWoW will she even be in a position to look to Westeros.

[Longspear Ryk]

Euron is gona carrys his longships across the land with the ironborn and sail down the honeywine to take oldtown from behind. Aegon and jon con will come to the rescue which will give them the hightowers and oldtown.

Also i feel like hes gona wife up arriane retardly

[Matty-El]

Aegons story, politically, is really gonna heat up. Dorne will end up on his side, it's basically a given. Doran has made his intentions clear through Quent going to Essos. Airanne will sweet talk Aegon no matter what, she wants to be queen and has a talent for seduction.

Between Aegon and Euron tearing it up Highgarden will most likely end up under a protracted seige. The Tyrell forces will have to rally to kings landing and Margery to unite with the remaining Lannister forces. Cersei would have to strike fast in a joint effort to stop Aegon before he combines his army with Doran but she won't. The Tyrells could make a backdoor deal and sell the Lannisters out. Its their only way to prove their loyalty and rid themselves of Cersei.

As for Euron you gotta remember he intends to marry Dany or so he told Victarion. He may end up supporting Aegon with that premise until Dany arrives and the dance begins. Either that or he'll keep defending his new acquisitions and wait for Dany.

Then Doran finds out Quent is dead, Euron finds out Vic intends to betray him, The Tyrells turn on Cersei, Dany lands burning everything, and the Walkers show up to eat all their faces. Aegons doomed he's just keeping Blackfyre warm for Dany. Infighting being a Blackfyre and the Walkers will be his undoing.

[The_Quiet_Wolf]

Aegon's journey is not going to be an easy one. One would assume that the Martell's would be natural allies. However, this plot was cooked up by Varys and Illyrio and we have no information that the Martell's even know of Aegon's survival.

I think there is going to be a confrontation with Arrianne's party from Dorne

. The success/failure of Aegon's conquest depends on two people: Dany and Jon Connington. Dany needs to realize that this is the sign for her to return home and take her crown with fire and blood. Jon Connington has to be able to prove Aegon's legitimacy and make alliancees for Aegon. If not, their army will be holed up in Storm's End with no hope.

[GoldenVale]

what do you think (f?)aegon's next move is going to be? now that he has successfully landed in westeros and taken over a few holdfasts, the next step would be alliances. Do you think he would marry arianne for Dornish support? or would he prefer margaery tyrell for the much larger army she comes with?

he would do well to repulse the iron born from the reach, that would win him great favor among the lords of westeros. if he plays his cards right sweeping the lannisters aside shouldn't be too hard, considering that the tyrells love to be on the winning side (even though they were on the wrong side in roberts rebellion) and they couldn't like the lannisters less at this point.

i doubt he will be able to win over the north though, with winter already here and therefore no real way to force them into submission (invading by land from the south is madness). even if he gets incredibly lucky and crosses moat cailin or decides to send forces by sea, the north is just too huge and cold at this point. we all saw what happened to stannis's southron knights in the north. without dragons i doubt it is possible.

They've supposedly already taken Storm's End. So I think they'll hold up there.

He (or more likely JonCon) will rest up there and asses the situation in Westeros. I'd expect a lot of attempts to make political moves. Sending out ravens to everyone who's important in Westeros to garner support. He likely won't get much but it would be like officially announcing his return. I won't expect too much fighting right off the bat although I expect there has to be a military response to his movements.

According to the Arianne sample chapter they've already asked Dorne for support. Whether anything comes of it is anyone's guess.

They'll find enemies in the form of the Lannisters and the Tyrells. The Tyrells have already hitched their wagon to the Lannisters and can't back out now. Even if Aegon repels the Ironborn from the Reach the most that'll do is win him some favor with the smaller Houses of the Reach, nothing more.

Maybe the Stormlands will pitch in with him but they'd need a hell of a lot of convincing.

Dany likely won't be in Westeros anytime soon so they won't and still doesn't even know he exist so I doubt they expect her help.

The Riverlands might look to him as a potential savior from the Freys but i don't see how much help they can offer.

The Vale will remain in it's stagnant state and the North is too far away and too occupied in it's own problems.

Frankly Aegon chose a hell of a time to strike at Westeros. The confusion has helped him make a successful surprise entrance true but now he has to survive on what he's got and that's not much. Most of those who might join him aren't at the best possible strengt and most of those who won't still have substantial strength.

If he does get Dorne, it'd be in secret, not with an army. I'd say Aegon and JonCon have a lot of work to do and not much to do it with.

[Tony Stark of Winterfell]

It seems as though the seven kingdoms might actually become seven (or at least 3-4) kingdoms again.

I'm thinking that the 3 queens littlefinger mentioned are arianne, margaery and cersei. and he's right in saying that the 7 kingdoms will suffer because of them. the vale will continue to do nothing.

varys could retrieve edric storm and have aegon legitimize him as the lord of storm's end and keep him captive, forcing the stormlords into their fold due to the threat to their liege lord.

red wedding 2.0, something i believe will happen, is going to result in a lot of dead freys and turmoil in the riverlands. with lannister and tyrell forces busy with aegon, there is nothing to stop the riverlands from seceding. i'm pretty sure the caravan taking edmure to casterly rock is going to be waylaid by the bwb. edmure will declare for jon, despite cat's dislike of him. the riverlands will not ally with aegon.

I wonder if jon (snow/targaryen) and aegon will ever interact. i seriously doubt jon is dead, and even if he is, he'll probably be resurrected (judging by mel's vision of a man, a wolf and a man again), freeing him from his vows. it would be interesting to see them interact, but i doubt it will ever happen. jon probably won't come south until he's cleansed the north of the boltons, and even then will be more occupied with the wall and the others. meanwhile i predict a dance of dragons between dany and aegon. i suspect the reach will ally with dany (marital alliance looks likely) when tommen dies(as it has been foretold). i can't think of a good ending for aegon. he is poised to fail. I guess tyrion will be satisfied with his successful manipulation of aegon.

the 7 kingdoms look like they are going to be ravaged and ripe for the taking by the others.

[the Scorpion Knight]

I don' thnk aegon will head for the reach he'LL head for the vale

[LittleDragon8]

I think he'll go straight for King's Landing. Aegon's rival is seated there, and if he were to capture Tommen and his mother, and win the support of the Reach, he's practically there. He could use Cersei, Myrcella and Tommen as hostages. I also think he might use Arianne to secure alliances. She is his only legitimate female relative (soon to be) under his influence.

[GoldenVale]

I think he'll go straight for King's Landing. Aegon's rival is seated there, and if he were to capture Tommen and his mother, and win the support of the Reach, he's practically there. He could use Cersei, Myrcella and Tommen as hostages. I also think he might use Arianne to secure alliances. She is his only legitimate female relative (soon to be) under his influence.

Highly unlikely. Aegon can't hope to win if he marches on King's Landing. The capital itself isn't really that easy to take over and let's not forget who's there right now Both Mace Tyrell and Randyll Tarly are in KL right now each with their own army. There's the gold cloaks to consider (who have been slightly replenished with some men sent by the Tyrells) and there's now the newly reinstated Warrior's Sons, loyal to the Faith who in turn have recently pledged to support Tommen, and we're told that the Warriors Sons haven't lacked for volunteers since they've been reinstated.

Aegon can't march on KL yet, he doesn't have the strength. He needs more support, which is why the first thing JonCon did once they got settled in Westeros was to ask Dorne for allegiance.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

I'm thinking that the 3 queens littlefinger mentioned are arianne, margaery and cersei. and he's right in saying that the 7 kingdoms will suffer because of them. the vale will continue to do nothing.

I doubt he means Arianne, since she's never been a Queen. He's talking about Margaery, Cersei and Daenerys here. Tales about Dany have already reached Westeros. LF had contacts everywhere. He would most certainly know about her.

It's a question if Aegon and Arianne will marry. She's absolutely not thinking about marriage at the moment, and she still hopes Quentyn will come home with Dany as his bride. That information might sour JonCon's and Aegon's opinions about the Dornish.

Dorne will at some point side with Aegon, though, because of the blood ties. And would one day Dany fight against Aegon, Dorne will keep supporting Aegon most likely. since Quentyn died because of Dany's dragons.

[Tony Stark of Winterfell]

LF has contacts everywhere so it is possible that he had intel on the communication between jon con and dorne, and connected the dots. I am not sure whether he said this or jon contacted dorne first. in fact i think that he could have predicted that arianne would enter the picture the moment the golden company landed with aegon.

the thing is even if he meant daenerys initially, i believe that the 3 queens are going end up being arianne, margaery and cersei, because daenerys doesn't look like she's coming back anytime soon, and a showdown between the 3 looms on the horizon.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

LF has contacts everywhere so it is possible that he had intel on the communication between jon con and dorne, and connected the dots. I am not sure whether he said this or jon contacted dorne first. in fact i think that he could have predicted that arianne would enter the picture the moment the golden company landed with aegon.

the thing is even if he meant daenerys initially, i believe that the 3 queens are going end up being arianne, margaery and cersei, because daenerys doesn't look like she's coming back anytime soon, and a showdown between the 3 looms on the horizon.

The communication between JonCon and Dorne was 1 letter. Unless LF had one of his people read the letter, I don't think it's likely he knows about Dorne's involvement, though that might change now that Arianne is on her way to Aegon.