(Spoilers All) What if Varys and Illyrio are both telling the truth?

[bryndenthewhite]

The theory that Aegon is actually a blackfyre (summarized at http://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/156odh/spoilers_all_complete_analysis_of_the_blackfyre/) has quite a bit of contradicting evidence.

On one hand, you have Varys' talk before he kills Kevan which suggests Varys believes Aegon is a true Targaryen. Proponents of rAegon insist that Varys would have no reason to lie to a dead man.

On the other hand you have the evidence (mainly Tyrion's conversation with Illyrio) suggesting that Illyrio is in fact attached to Aegon emotionally and says that (according to the earlier version of ADWD that was never released) Illyrio had some important secret to share with Aegon.

What if both of them were telling the truth? What if Varys actually does believe Aegon is a Targaryen and Illyrio (for whatever reason) thinks he is a blackfyre?

An example of how this would be possible would be if Varys did a double switch, replacing Illyrio's son with the stolen prince Aegon. If this were the case, Varys might have no clue that Illyrio's son was a blackfyre (assuming he was) and our initial assumption is still valid. This way, Illyrio still raises Aegon as if he were his own.

Now, there are obvious problems with this. The age wouldn't line up (Illyrio would certainly notice if one day his baby aged two years), so that's no better than the rAegon theory there. Also, a single switch is complicated enough, a double-switch would be an absurd plot devices (especially since the whole imposter thing is getting overused).

Here's another (better) possibility. Varys smuggled Aegon out of king's landing and gave him to Illyrio, but Illyrio instead killed/eliminated the boy and led everyone (including Varys) to believe that Illyrio's own son was the prince Aegon. Remember, Varys has not seen 'Aegon' since he is a baby, and one child with Valyrian features can look similar to another. This might be valid even if Illyrio's son isn't a blackfyre. I can think of no problems with this theory, except I can't imagine Varys being outsmarted by anyone other than LF, but that is not to say they don't exist.

Assuming that Varys thinks Aegon is real and Illyrio thinks/knows he is fake, what reasoning can we come up with?

[oliverhate]

that last bit would be clever and interesting to read how it plays out and makes a fair bit of sense but how do you know that "(according to the earlier version of ADWD that was never released) Illyrio had some important secret to share with Aegon. "

[The Maiden Fair]

There is a lot of evidence buried in those Tyrion chapters implying that Illyrio thinks Aegon is his son, but also that he hasn't seen him in a while. It is possible that both Varys and Illyrio are playing a different game, but they are close friends and cohorts. It doesn't make sense to me that they would be playing one another.

On the other hand though, who isn't playing everyone around them. We can see how well loyalty and honesty worked for Ned.

That, and the frequently repeated theme that nothing is too evil or taboo when it comes to protecting your children. Dishonesty, murder, even killing them to keep them away from enemies. These are all supported in the text.

I call it plausible.

[Edit- typing error.]

[Talking Hodor]

Why couldn't Illyrio's son and Aegon be two different people? Maybe the important information Illyrio has for Aegon is that the three dragon eggs belonging to him, his sister, and his half-brother Jon Snow are currently in Daenerys' possession and that he totally never believed that they'd ever hatch. Whoops.

Makes me wonder where Illyrio's son is and what he's doing (posing as someone else? living an estranged, degenerate lifestyle in Pentos?), if he's not Aegon.

[bryndenthewhite]

that last bit would be clever and interesting to read how it plays out and makes a fair bit of sense but how do you know that "(according to the earlier version of ADWD that was never released) Illyrio had some important secret to share with Aegon. "

From a 2005 reading of an early draft:

"Illyrio says he wants to give Young Griff his blessings and has a gift for him in the chests. Haldon tells him there is no time for the litter. Illyrio gets angry and says there are things Griff must know.

...

Haldon eyes Tyrion and then begins to speak in another language. Tyrion cannot tell what it is but think it might be Volantene. He catches a few words that come close to High Valyrian. The words he catches are, queen, dragon, and sword."

[JonCon's Red Beard]

Aegon was taken care by Illyrio when he was very young. Illyrio could have grown fond of him because of that, not because he's his father or is related to him in any way.

[Ser Not Appearing]

Aegon was taken care by Illyrio when he was very young. Illyrio could have grown fond of him because of that, not because he's his father or is related to him in any way.

By Jon Connington's Red Beard, you could be right!

[The Bastard of Summer]

Aegon was taken care by Illyrio when he was very young. Illyrio could have grown fond of him because of that, not because he's his father or is related to him in any way.

Isn't great how some people are able to love/like, care for a motherless child while others are not....

[JonCon's Red Beard]

Isn't great how some people are able to love/like, care for a motherless child while others are not....

Well, it's an old trope, really, the old widower with money who cares about the orphan he's being given to raise. Do we know when he lost his wife? It would fit if he "healed" by having a young kid around to make him smile.

[Äimätär]

That would be sad and clever. Varys would be pissed off however and perhaps out for revenge, depending how much weight his plans put on Aegon being real Targaryen.

[Julia Martell]

On one hand, you have Varys' talk before he kills Kevan which suggests Varys believes Aegon is a true Targaryen. Proponents of rAegon insist that Varys would have no reason to lie to a dead man.

Kevan assumes Varys was talking about Rhaegar's son. Varys never actual says that. (He's sneaky)

Kevan thinks about the bloody baby in the sheet and says "He's dead." And Varys says, "No, he's here."

Varys says that Young Griff has been educated to be a king and know how the small folk live, that he has been taught that being king is his duty, not his right.

If Varys and/or Illyrio are Blackfyres or Blackfyre supporters, they see that line as the "true kings", notwithstanding the fact they've been exiled for more than a hundred years. They see the Targaryens defended from Daeron II has just as much usurpers as the Baratheons.

I'm not saying that this proves the Blackfyre theory, just that it doesn't necessarily pose a problem for it. It's ambiguous. Probably by design.

[bryndenthewhite]

Aegon was taken care by Illyrio when he was very young. Illyrio could have grown fond of him because of that, not because he's his father or is related to him in any way.

Possible. But this raises the question of why Illyrio would agree to the scheme in the first place. Varys, being heavily involved in Westerosi politics, is a possible Targaryen supporter. Illyrio would have no reason to agree to take in, raise, and become attached to a Targaryen heir. He's a pretty smart guy; he wouldn't take on that risk for no apparent reason.

Well, it's an old trope, really, the old widower with money who cares about the orphan he's being given to raise. Do we know when he lost his wife? It would fit if he "healed" by having a young kid around to make him smile.

A minor point here. I think that's sort of another argument for why Illyrio must be personally invested in Aegon's success somehow. GRRM loves to avoid tropes, and while it's impossible to avoid all of them completely, I think what you're describing seems too ordinary, while Illyrio and Aegon's situation is anything but.

Kevan assumes Varys was talking about Rhaegar's son. Varys never actual says that. (He's sneaky)

Kevan thinks about the bloody baby in the sheet and says "He's dead." And Varys says, "No, he's here."

True, but just as Varys has no reason to lie here, he has no reason to be sneaky either. Varys really has no reason to say anything before he kills Kevan for that matter. We can infer that he respected Kevan or something of the sort enough to tell him why he is dying (in sort of a movie-villain monologue manner). So, since Varys decides to say anything at all to Kevan, I think it's likely he is being genuine here.

[Lord Damian]

The theory that Aegon is actually a blackfyre (summarized at http://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/156odh/spoilers_all_complete_analysis_of_the_blackfyre/) has quite a bit of contradicting evidence.

On one hand, you have Varys' talk before he kills Kevan which suggests Varys believes Aegon is a true Targaryen. Proponents of rAegon insist that Varys would have no reason to lie to a dead man.

On the other hand you have the evidence (mainly Tyrion's conversation with Illyrio) suggesting that Illyrio is in fact attached to Aegon emotionally and says that (according to the earlier version of ADWD that was never released) Illyrio had some important secret to share with Aegon.

What if both of them were telling the truth? What if Varys actually does believe Aegon is a Targaryen and Illyrio (for whatever reason) thinks he is a blackfyre?

An example of how this would be possible would be if Varys did a double switch, replacing Illyrio's son with the stolen prince Aegon. If this were the case, Varys might have no clue that Illyrio's son was a blackfyre (assuming he was) and our initial assumption is still valid. This way, Illyrio still raises Aegon as if he were his own.

Now, there are obvious problems with this. The age wouldn't line up (Illyrio would certainly notice if one day his baby aged two years), so that's no better than the rAegon theory there. Also, a single switch is complicated enough, a double-switch would be an absurd plot devices (especially since the whole imposter thing is getting overused).

Here's another (better) possibility. Varys smuggled Aegon out of king's landing and gave him to Illyrio, but Illyrio instead killed/eliminated the boy and led everyone (including Varys) to believe that Illyrio's own son was the prince Aegon. Remember, Varys has not seen 'Aegon' since he is a baby, and one child with Valyrian features can look similar to another. This might be valid even if Illyrio's son isn't a blackfyre. I can think of no problems with this theory, except I can't imagine Varys being outsmarted by anyone other than LF, but that is not to say they don't exist.

Assuming that Varys thinks Aegon is real and Illyrio thinks/knows he is fake, what reasoning can we come up with?

Aegon is burried with his sister under the Red Keep if memory surves me correct. Not the Great Sept of Baelor. So, saying Aegon is here would not necessarily be a lie if he did die as a baby and his ashes are burried there. "Aegon is HERE", Varys said. The birds were listening. He may want them to believe it too.

[In A Coat of Gold]

It makes the plot a lot more interesting if Aegon is real. He trumps Dany's claim and is a major player already.

[Lord Damian]

It makes the plot a lot more interesting if Aegon is real. He trumps Dany's claim and is a major player already.

It does but simply never revealing the truth but letting him do some damage to the Lannisters before he bows out either do to a Dance with Dany or Greyscale or some other illness matters not.

[bryndenthewhite]

Aegon is burried with his sister under the Red Keep if memory surves me correct. Not the Great Sept of Baelor. So, saying Aegon is here would not necessarily be a lie if he did die as a baby and his ashes are burried there. "Aegon is HERE", Varys said.

Right, but again Varys really has no reason to be duplicitous here or use any kind of ambiguous wording. Since he chose to reveal his intentions to Kevan at all (he didn't even have to say anything), I think it's likely that we can take this at face value. Still, I must admit GRRM's choice to leave this wording ambiguous is very interesting.

The birds were listening. He may want them to believe it too.

If his birds were able to be broken or betray him, I think it is probable that this would have happened sooner (i.e. when Tyrion escaped) and we would have heard about it. I don't think that their are too many people whom Varys would allow to know of Kevan's murder but not of Aegon's heritage. If the birds were informing for anyone, it would likely be for Illyrio (the person who sold Varys the little birds), but he probably already knows the truth whatever it is.

[Good Guy Garlan]

Possible. But this raises the question of why Illyrio would agree to the scheme in the first place. Varys, being heavily involved in Westerosi politics, is a possible Targaryen supporter. Illyrio would have no reason to agree to take in, raise, and become attached to a Targaryen heir. He's a pretty smart guy; he wouldn't take on that risk for no apparent reason.

Good point. As Tyrion himself thinks, IIIyrio has no reason to get involved in Westerosi politics: he's already filthy rich and influential. If he grew fond of Aegon why involve him in the dangerous game of thrones instead of letting him live a peaceful and comfortable life in Pentos?

As he tells Tyrion, when talking about Myrcella: "to queen her is to kill her." The same applies to Aegon, there's always that risk. One might think, as Tyrion also does, that maybe Aegon is just a pawn to Varys and IIIyrio, but I don't see it that way, at least from IIIyrio's end: he really seems fond of Aegon

So, in my opinion, the reason why IIIyrio involved Aegon in that scheme in the first place was because of a greater motive, say a promise to his dead wife. It wouldn't be the first case of characters trying to do good on the memory of loved ones (Ned and Jon Connington come to mind)

[JonCon's Red Beard]

Good point. As Tyrion himself thinks, IIIyrio has no reason to get involved in Westerosi politics: he's already filthy rich and influential. If he grew fond of Aegon why involve him in the dangerous game of thrones instead of letting him live a peaceful and comfortable life in Pentos?

As he tells Tyrion, when talking about Myrcella: "to queen her is to kill her." The same applies to Aegon, there's always that risk. One might think, as Tyrion also does, that maybe Aegon is just a pawn to Varys and IIIyrio, but I don't see it that way, at least from IIIyrio's end: he really seems fond of Aegon

So, in my opinion, the reason why IIIyrio involved Aegon in that scheme in the first place was because of a greater motive, say a promise to his dead wife. It wouldn't be the first case of characters trying to do good on the memory of loved ones (Ned and Jon Connington come to mind)

But why his mother would want that. If Illyrio is indeed Aegon's father, then he would want him out of any danger as well.

[Good Guy Garlan]

But why his mother would want that. If Illyrio is indeed Aegon's father, then he would want him out of any danger as well.

Maybe because she felt entitled to the IT (being a Blackfyre) or maybe she wanted vengeance against the Targs.

As Tyrion says (and boy, I'm quoting him an awful lot lately):

“It all goes back and back, to our mothers and fathers and theirs before them. We are puppets dancing on the strings of those who came before us, and one day our own children will take up our strings and dance in our steads.”

Eh, I don't know, maybe it's the other way around and Aegon is just a pawn. I could see it go both ways :dunno:

[Lady Blizzardborn]

Um...the story for both Varys and Illyrio is that Aegon is a Targaryen. Illyrio has never said the boy is a Blackfyre. So if they're both telling the truth, then Aegon is Rhaegar and Elia's son.

That said, if Aegon is real, we can probably expect someone else to pop up Blackfyre (*cough, Daario, cough*). There's too much Blackfyre foreshadowing for that not to be part of the story, unless GRRM has mastered the ultimate in trolling the readers. :D