Does Varys want Dany dead?

[No Song so Sweet]

Personally, I am not convinced. Robert insisted on killing her and wouldn't hear anyone disagreeing with him even if they did try to do so. So Varys superficially agreed to send an assassin after her, but not a faceless man. A regular assassin has a large chance of failure, as anyone who has played Total War 1would know :) .

So Varys takes a small risk by sending an assassin against Dany but it is a risk he cannot avoid. Apart from not being able to succeed to convince Robert otherwise, he would totally blow his cover if he insisted that Dany shouldn't be assassinated. He is Varys the spider, Varis the eunuch, he can't protest for moral reasons.

He even possible warned Jorah about the assassination attempt on Dany (unless that is ruled out by the text, I don't remember, but i think the text actually supports that).

Also Varys doesn't really send any support to Daenerys apart from sending Jorah to spy on her, but he doesn't hurt her either. My guess is that he is trying to keep her alive to either marry Aegon and give him legitimacy and increase his military strength or to use her as herself to weaken Westeros whenever she comes there with an army (at first the plan was the Dothraki, now the Unsullied and the dragons and the rest of her army).

[Qhorin Halfhand and Yoren]

At that point most likely Varys wanted a failed assassination attempt to get Drogo into invading Westeros. As for now, he seems to be backing Aegon so he probably wants Daenerys to marry Aegon but if that doesn't happen then Daenerys becomes dangerous to him.

My guess is that he is trying to keep her alive to either marry Aegon and give him legitimacy and increase his military strength or to use her as herself to weaken Westeros whenever she comes there with an army (at first the plan was the Dothraki, now the Unsullied and the dragons and the rest of her army).

Agreed. However if Daenerys comes to Westeros after an Aegon victory and Aegon is already married (A victory possibly facilitated by what the Vale does and friends of the reach, faith, riverlands anti frey/Lannister plotting, the disastrous actions of Cersei in the capital) then Daenerys might become enemy number one.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Yes.

He doesn't care one whiff about her, except as a means to his end (fAegon).

At that point most likely Varys wanted a failed assassination attempt to get Drogo into invading Westeros. As for now, he seems to be backing Aegon so he probably wants Daenerys to marry Aegon but if that doesn't happen then Daenerys becomes dangerous to him.

Doesn't matter whether it was failed or a successful attempt. What matters is that there was an attempt Drogo would attribute to Westeros.

[Qhorin Halfhand and Yoren]

Yes.

He doesn't care one whiff about her, except as a means to his end (fAegon).

Doesn't matter whether it was failed or a successful attempt. What matters is that there was an attempt Drogo would attribute to Westeros.

Nah, he wanted to save her, hence the warning to Jorah but he also played it both ways and expected to benefit from her death too if the assassination attempt succeeded.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Nah, he wanted to save her but he also played it both ways and expected to benefit from her death too if the assassination attempt succeeded.

He doesn't care.

If he did, he would have done something. And please don't try to bring up a loyal Westerosi guy who wants to go home and doesn't know any details.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

The Faceless Man idea was scrapped by committee because of how expensive it would have been. That doesn't really have much to do with Varys's intent in sending the assassin, not that I can see anyway.

The assassination could have easily been successful, had Jorah not warned Dany at that precise moment. Even if Varys did warn Jorah, it was pretty much out of his hands at that point. Meaning, he had to have sent the assassin with the understanding that it might very well be successful. I think the goal of the assassination/assassination attempt was to goad Drogo into invading. If Dany survives, she can ask him to do it. If she dies, Drogo might be persuaded to invade to avenge her. Either way, Dany living is incidental.

I think Varys only cares about Dany with regards to what it means for Aegon. If Dany can be used as a stooge to legitimize Aegon or assist him, he has an interest in keeping her around. If she poses a threat to Aegon or challenges him directly, then he might try harder to get rid of her. The focus was never actually Dany herself. She's a means to an end.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Nah, he wanted to save her, hence the warning to Jorah but he also played it both ways and expected to benefit from her death too if the assassination attempt succeeded.

Which, if it had come five minutes later would have been too late. Varys had no way of knowing that Jorah would or could get the warning at the precise opportune moment that he did, or that Dany would be in the immediate proximity when he did so. This position relies on the benefit of hindsight, because we know Jorah was able to stop it. But it could have easily gone the other way and at that point was out of Varys's hands. Ergo, Varys set up the assassination knowing that it might well be successful.

[Talleyrand]

Back when the assassin was sent I don't think he cared either way - tell Jorah about it if he decides to stop it then there is still the Targ threat for Bob to keep his eye on. If it succeeds - making the open offer of a lordship to whoever did the deed means Drogo would be sure to hear of it and then there is the Dothraki threat for Bob to keep his eye on.

He just wanted for there to be an enemy.

[Qhorin Halfhand and Yoren]

He doesn't care.

If he did, he would have done something. And please don't try to bring up a loyal Westerosi guy who wants to go home and doesn't know any details.

But Varys is known to manipulate people like Jorah all the time. At the very least he was playing it both ways with the assassination attempt but due to the warning to Jorah I do think plan a was for warned Jorah to stop it, plan b is Daenerys dead and goaded Drogo invading.

Additionally even back then he could think that marrying Daenerys to Aegon could give him further legitimacy.

Which, if it had come five minutes later would have been too late. Varys had no way of knowing that Jorah would or could get the warning at the precise opportune moment that he did, or that Dany would be in the immediate proximity when he did so. This position relies on the benefit of hindsight, because we know Jorah was able to stop it. But it could have easily gone the other way and at that point was out of Varys's hands. Ergo, Varys set up the assassination knowing that it might well be successful.

This is true.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Which, if it had come five minutes later would have been too late. Varys had no way of knowing that Jorah would or could get the warning at the precise opportune moment that he did, or that Dany would be in the immediate proximity when he did so. This position relies on the benefit of hindsight, because we know Jorah was able to stop it. But it could have easily gone the other way and at that point was out of Varys's hands. Ergo, Varys set up the assassination knowing that it might well be successful.

And of course it relies on Jorah wanting to get into Dany's pants. Which Varys has no way of knowing.

Furthermore Jorah didn't knew any details at all. It was a useless warning.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

But Varys is known to manipulate people like Jorah all the time. At the very least he was playing it both ways with the assassination attempt but due to the warning to Jorah I do think plan a was for warned Jorah to stop it, plan b is Daenerys dead and goaded Drogo invading.

Jorah is a loyal Northman who fought against House Targaryen. And he is six months from Kings Landing.

Varys could in no way know that he now wants to keep Dany alive because he wants to bang her. That's a far too recent development.

[Qhorin Halfhand and Yoren]

Jorah is a loyal Northman who fought against House Targaryen. And he is six months from Kings Landing.

Varys could in no way know that he now wants to keep Dany alive because he wants to bang her. That's a far too recent development.

Why warn Jorah then? Was that a useless move? The reason to warn someone of an assassination attempt happening is so they could stop it.

Seeing as Jorah is Varys spy and he just got a warning and he can't really benefit by helping in the assassination attempt as the Dothraki would kill him he might have expected him to do something about it and really that is how Jorah can contribute on this.

Also regardless of past history, Jorah spied on Daenerys and send messages to Varys, he might have got the message from their communications about events that Jorah was fond of Daenerys or admired her (whether Varys understood him wanting to bang her or not)

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Why warn Jorah then? Was that a useless move? The reason to warn someone of an assassination attempt happening is so they could stop it.

Seeing as Jorah is Varys spy and he just got a warning and he can't really benefit by helping in the assassination attempt as the Dothraki would kill him he might have expected him to do something about it and really that is how Jorah can contribute on this.

Also regardless of past history, Jorah spied on Daenerys and send messages to Varys, he might have got the message from their communications about events that Jorah was fond of Daenerys or admired her (whether Varys understood him wanting to bang her or not)

Actually, are we sure the letter actually says that? As far as I know we never see it. Dany asks Jorah how he knew and he says that the letter said that Robert was offering a lordship for killing Dany and Viserys, not that a specific assassination plot was underway at that moment. He could have put two and two when he saw the wine merchant pushing too hard for her to drink it, but it seems like it was only a suspicion.

And even if Jorah was lying to Dany about what the letter said, it may have been nothing more than Varys saying, "You can come back to Westeros now, you're pardoned," which Jorah could have connected to Dany's impending death, i.e. the work was done.

Point is, without seeing the actual letter itself, we can't know for sure what was exactly in it. And it didn't need to be an explicit warning to Jorah for him to guess that Dany was in danger. As in, just because Jorah read the letter as pointing to Dany being endangered doesn't mean it was written with that intent.

[Qhorin Halfhand and Yoren]

Actually, are we sure the letter actually says that? As far as I know we never see it. Dany asks Jorah how he knew and says that the letter said that Robert was offering a lordship for killing Dany and Viserys, not that a specific assassination plot was underway at that moment. He could have put two and two when he saw the wine merchant pushing too hard for her to drink it, but it seems like it was only a suspicion.

And even if Jorah was lying to Dany about what the letter said, it may have been nothing more than Varys saying, "You can come back to Westeros now, you're pardoned," which Jorah could have connected to Dany's impending death, i.e. the work was done.

Point is, without seeing the actual letter itself, we can't know for sure what was exactly in it. And it didn't need to be an explicit warning to Jorah for him to guess that Dany was in danger. As in, just because Jorah read the letter as pointing to Dany being endangered doesn't mean it was written with that intent.

Well I am browsing the chapter and this is what Jorah says

A lie.” Ser Jorah’s face darkened. “I would never… Daenerys, it was me who stopped you from drinking the wine.”

“Yes. And how was it you knew the wine was poisoned?”

“I… I but suspected… the caravan brought a letter from Varys, he warned me there would be attempts. He wanted you watched, yes, but not harmed.” He went to his knees. “If I had not told them someone else would have. You know that.”

“I know you betrayed me.” She touched her belly, where her son Rhaego had perished. “I know a poisoner tried to kill my son, because of you. That’s what I know.”

“No… no.” He shook his head. “I never meant… forgive me. You have to forgive me.”

“Have to?” It was too late. He should have begun by begging forgiveness. She could not pardon him as she’d intended. She had dragged the wineseller behind her horse until there was nothing left of him. Didn’t the man who brought him deserve the same? This is Jorah, my fierce bear, the right arm that never failed me. I would be dead without him, but… “I can’t forgive you,” she said. “I can’t.”

[Qhorin Halfhand and Yoren]

So here is how it goes in my view:

Varys sends a message to encourage assassination attempts for a reward.

We get the message in universe from characters and in my view its from GRRM that this isn't the most effective way to setup successful assassination.

And he warns Jorah to stop it.

Plan A is for Jorah to stop it and so Jorah is warned and is suspicious and looking for it plan B is failure but Drogo is goaded to invade Westeros. So I guess in a way the common part of the plan is goading Drogo to invade by the assassination attempt.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Well I am browsing the chapter and this is what Jorah says

A lie.” Ser Jorah’s face darkened. “I would never… Daenerys, it was me who stopped you from drinking the wine.”

“Yes. And how was it you knew the wine was poisoned?”

“I… I but suspected… the caravan brought a letter from Varys, he warned me there would be attempts. He wanted you watched, yes, but not harmed.” He went to his knees. “If I had not told them someone else would have. You know that.”

“I know you betrayed me.” She touched her belly, where her son Rhaego had perished. “I know a poisoner tried to kill my son, because of you. That’s what I know.”

“No… no.” He shook his head. “I never meant… forgive me. You have to forgive me.”

“Have to?” It was too late. He should have begun by begging forgiveness. She could not pardon him as she’d intended. She had dragged the wineseller behind her horse until there was nothing left of him. Didn’t the man who brought him deserve the same? This is Jorah, my fierce bear, the right arm that never failed me. I would be dead without him, but… “I can’t forgive you,” she said. “I can’t.”

Fair enough. I'm still not seeing anything pointing to that specific attempt at that specific time. Meaning, it was still a big matter of luck and timing that Jorah was able to stop it. Meaning, Varys can't have cared that much if Dany lived or died at that point.

[Jay21]

Tallyrand LOL the Robbo quote!

[Qhorin Halfhand and Yoren]

Fair enough. I'm still not seeing anything pointing to that specific attempt at that specific time. Meaning, it was still a big matter of luck and timing that Jorah was able to stop it. Meaning, Varys can't have cared that much if Dany lived or died at that point.

I doubt Varys knew about the specific assassination attempt.

And yes I get the impression that if it was the utmost priority for him that Daenerys stays alive rather than Drogo's army invades Westeros he probably wouldn't have produced in steps making assassination attempts likely/guaranteed. But if he didn't care at all about Daenerys dying he could very well have allowed her to be killed and send no warning to Jorah. While we get the message this is not the way to get the most successful assassination attempts and he warns Jorah. So its plan a, plan b though ultimately the plan is all about goading Drogo one way or the other.

[No Song so Sweet]

Varys couldn't know when the assassin (or any of the potential assassins) would find Dany and make the attempt, so he couldn't give a more adequate warning to Jorah. IMO Varys doesn't care about Daenerys that much but he wants to keep her alive if able, he just doesn't want to spend many resources on her because he gives all of that to ®Aegon.

(I know you said (F)Aegon but I believe Aegon is real).

As some of you pointed out, even a dead Daenerys may contribute to weakening the lords of the 7K to ease ®Aegon's way, I didn't think of that. Varys also warns her however, to save her if he possibly can without sending people/ resources to her. It still would require luck for her to be saved, but she is half a world away so it was the best he could do without spending a fortune.

In conclusion, I think Varys could be a Targaryen loyalist but he doesn't love all Targs equally and he does see all of this as calculation and game of thrones, not emotionally or morally. His purpose is the only thing that comes from loyalty (or not even that if fAegon is the case).

[Mithras]

Actually, the wine merchant didnot require Dany to drink the wine at that moment. Dany was about to send the wine cask to Drogo's tent. She or Drogo was the first person to die, perhaps both, when they retreat to their tent and drink the poisoned wine.

As for the OP, Team fAegon definitely wanted Dany dead/removed at that time.