Scientific Revolution of Fire and Ice

[TimJames]

What might it look like if Westros underwent an industrial and scientific revolution similar to the one that hit Europe after the Middle Ages? There are many things that would be effected.

Would magic creatures survive in such a changing world (Dragons, Children of the forest, Giants, wizards, etc.)? If so, what place would they have?

What role would magic have in this? (Valyrian Steel, Wildfire, etc.)

How would this effect the political landscape?

What might cause such a scientific revolution?

Remember, I am only asking for your OPINION. This scenario is purely hypothetical.

Don't say "it won't happen in the story so we shouldn't even discuss it".

[m'lady Melisandre]

What might it look like if Westros underwent an industrial and scientific revolution similar to the one that hit Europe after the Middle Ages? There are many things that would be effected.

Would magic creatures survive in such a changing world (Dragons, Children of the forest, Giants, wizards, etc.)? If so, what place would they have?

What role would magic have in this? (Valyrian Steel, Wildfire, etc.)

How would this effect the political landscape?

What might cause such a scientific revolution?

Remember, I am only asking for your OPINION. This scenario is purely hypothetical.

Don't say "it won't happen in the story so we shouldn't even discuss it".

First of all, industrial and scientific revolutions are not things that can happen all of a sudden, they require the right societal conditions to emerge.

I would say that Westeros is frozen at 8-9° century after J.C., way behind any real chance of witnessing an industrial bloom right now.

Anyway..

It depends on the role magic really has in this world. We have seen that it was nearly 'gone', and it is just 'slowly returning back'. We don't know how much diffuse and powerful it will become in the near future, so making any guess on this regard is difficult. However, usually in fantasy books magic is portrayed as something that enacts vertical societies: very powerful and limited, concentrated in the hands of few either good or bad. On the contrary, science and industry are instruments that enact horizontal societies, because they tend to multiply wealth availability and its distribution. Even though 'wealthy people' are still a small number and insanely far away from common people, common folks have come a long way since middle ages as well.

My understanding of the matter is that the existence of magic hinders the chances of industrial and scientific progress, because the former provides 'easy' and 'over-proportional' benefits while the latters require milions of cumulative small efforts and intellectual achievements to acquire substantial improvements. People living in a society with magic will be of course easily more focused on how to exploit magic, rather than build on technology. People who already possess magic/power/wealth will not have any interest into financing research and intellectual growth, but rather keep others as weak and manipulable as possible.

A scientific revolution would IMHO require two things:

- magic definitely fades away - removing obstacles to growth of new emerging powers (nearly achieved with death of all dragons of Targaryen)

- the middle class / bureaucratic / merchants take over, on controlling the entire system. This of course is a certain step, as Kings/nobles can't avoid making debts in the long run (at least in real world) while on the opposite merchants are more focused on taking decisions that stabilize their wealth and growth over a long time by means of true sources of wealth (aka: not taxes).

The rise of middle class will cause education to spread, and with that foster the conditions necessary for industrial revolution.

[Civility Reigns]

One word: Magitech.

[Waters Gate]

Instead of using the word horsepower in modern times, You get to use the term "dragonpower".

Because dragons are going to be great as power source come industrial revolution. Great for steam engines, well dragons just have to cook water with their breath. You can integrate a few dragons in a ship hul, make their wings pump water and their breath make steam. Power plants will manage to run economicly by maintaining herdes of dragons to work at it. As an airframe dragons will be great for a logn time to come too, and theyr flame could be used to proppel extra attachable engines iirc trough a turboprop mechanism. You might even consider to uise them for rocketry, might be that dragons can into space.

They will need to raise and maintain loads of dragons, much more than they had at the height of the Valyrian freehold. It will require more food to be produced, but then the industrial revolution went hand in hand with agricultural innovations.

Besides that, there are more special creature's within the asoiaf universe that would offer advantage's come industrial revolution. The power of creature's like mammoths and giants could deffinatly help in terms of productivity and expanding capabilety's.

[Liaraeyne]

I once had a crackpot theory that Valyria was very far technology-wise (19th to 20th century ish), and that the doom of Valyria was actually an atom bomb or some other nuclear accident (such as Chernobyl). Would explain why everyone who gets too close to Valyria dies soon (radiation illnesses).

[JoeyBanana]

Possibly the pale mare/greyscale but maybe the destructions caused by the continuing civil wars and the Other invasion will be enough to open up the system for social change

But the real first step needs to be a maester reformation, they were useful and thanks for all the fish, but it's time to move on

(My own theory: Marwin has got that already covered, plus Gerion may be on his way home with some insightful Valyrian treasures)

[Waters Gate]

A scientific revolution would IMHO require two things:

- magic definitely fades away - removing obstacles to growth of new emerging powers (nearly achieved with death of all dragons of Targaryen)

I disagree. I think it could happen as a result of a "dragon race". The Valyrians managed to increase the amount of dragons they had obviously at one time, they have been gone but have now returned, but one could wonder how things would have progressed if the valyrians kept increasing the number of dragons they maintained.

Afaik, the hard limit for them was to the extend they could maintain those dragons. I figure they did cost a lot in food. But with Dragons being almost like nukes and having Valyrian family's competing with eachother to the amount of dragons they could maintain, like it were a cold war weapons race, i figure there would have been incentive for the Valyrians to expand food production continually, and providing mechanical power to that would for ex. for milling would soon enough become important. Afcourse Westeros does have windmills and probably water mills already, but when they fail to be able to deliver enough power or turn to be very costly, it might be that with dragons a very economical steam power sollution could be provided.

[JoeyBanana]

Magic kinda represents lost knowledge. Regaining it will not be an obstacle, quite the opposite actually.

Don't think magic vs technology, think magic = technology

[Waters Gate]

Magic kinda represents lost knowledge. Regaining it will not be an obstacle, quite the opposite actually.

Don't think magic vs technology, think magic = technology

I agree with that notion, though it might also means that the focus in science might be different at times. But it's true that even if magic has a unnatural physics at it's base, that the consequences and method of it's use can still be predictable, usefull, and something upon which one can expand via scientific method.

[Lord Ross]

It's nearly impossible to have an industrial revolution in a heavily stratified feudal society.

The industrial revolution in Europe began in Britain, which was poor relative to France, Germany and Switzerland.

On continental Europe lords, dukes and princes had the wealth to commission intricate mechanical works for pleasure, eg beautiful clocks with moving figures. This occupied many of the engineers, meaning they were building quite superfluous objects.

However in Britain the ruling classes were neither as wealthy or powerful. This ment that engineers were commissioned to build canals, which were seen as a means of improving transport of goods. This improved the wealth of the rich who operated and owned them, but common people had an increased quality of life by being able to buy and sell more goods.

As a result the engineering culture of Britain was a practical one where almost everyone could understand the value of engineering. As it had a positive impact on their lives. In Europe however it was only the rich minority who gained anything from engineers, and what they gained was pleasure.

[m'lady Melisandre]

I disagree. I think it could happen as a result of a "dragon race". The Valyrians managed to increase the amount of dragons they had obviously at one time, they have been gone but have now returned, but one could wonder how things would have progressed if the valyrians kept increasing the number of dragons they maintained.

Afaik, the hard limit for them was to the extend they could maintain those dragons. I figure they did cost a lot in food. But with Dragons being almost like nukes and having Valyrian family's competing with eachother to the amount of dragons they could maintain, like it were a cold war weapons race, i figure there would have been incentive for the Valyrians to expand food production continually, and providing mechanical power to that would for ex. for milling would soon enough become important. Afcourse Westeros does have windmills and probably water mills already, but when they fail to be able to deliver enough power or turn to be very costly, it might be that with dragons a very economical steam power sollution could be provided.

Well, I'm happy to live in a world where there are other reasonable point of views to consider.

No doubt elephants would be better, but one can pile 20 slaves one on top of the others and get a reasonable meal. They are even damn cheap in Essos.

Standing to Targaryen experience with Dragons, the main problem with these guys is to get them breed (or get their eggs to crack open) rather than providing them food. Of course your viewpoint is not farfetched at all, at least there is no clear information standing against it.

As I said, my considerations start from a single point: when you have enough power concentrated in your hands and there is a huge difference in power among you and any other, it is easier and safer to keep everyone else from growing a little than aiming to grow yourself. You do not need extra power to be the uber pro, you just need to ensure no one else grows as your competitor. I can think of lots of examples in real life, especially among corporations, in which this observation is true.

To properly respond to your point, however, my observation doesn't suffice. Thus, I shall ask you to consider real history. Nobility, in middle ages, had no dragons but all the power. Their power had no limits downwards, but constraints upwards. However, following up the chain of power, you would eventually end up in a single person having absolute power (the king) and no restriction. Historically, none of these people ever pursued industrial innovation or technological advancement. Since they were already at the peak of society, and their risks came from other nobles trying to defeat them with armies, they were focused on raising taxes and growing soldiers. When they needed more money and resources, they simply obliged the common folk to pay more and work more. Although there might be exception on a limited scale, it is true that up until when this feudal system was standing in Europe, the industrial revolution did not trigger. The industrial revolution triggered after societal changes that put merchants on top of society, and this happened after nobility proved powerless because they only consume resources and do not produce them. Instead, merchants accumulated wealth, and with that wealth they accumulated rights. Merchants are the true and only people who are going to care how to make more wealth out of an activity, let it be buying and selling, or producing stuff. Historically, it was this class of citizens that pushed toward the adoption of technology advancements, because they could benefit from it by multiplying their income.

My point isn't that Dragon Lords couldn't become richer and more powerful by exploiting industrialization - as you correctly objected to me, they could - , but rather that their inherent nature prevents them to seek such opportunities and exploit them.

Magic kinda represents lost knowledge. Regaining it will not be an obstacle, quite the opposite actually.

Don't think magic vs technology, think magic = technology

This is only true if the only requisite for using magic is knowledge, which is by the way the only requisite technology has.

In many fantasy world, there are stricter constraints on using magic: you need to be born with magic skills, you need to have the favour of some God, you need to possess some magical equipment, you need to have had a special training that spans 30 years after which you are omnipotent..

..all things that draw a clear and sharp line among technology and magic.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

:bs:

Please inform yourself about the feudal contract before posting stuff like that.

[Civility Reigns]

...

This is only true if the only requisite for using magic is knowledge, which is by the way the only requisite technology has.

In many fantasy world, there are stricter constraints on using magic: you need to be born with magic skills, you need to have the favour of some God, you need to possess some magical equipment, you need to have had a special training that spans 30 years after which you are omnipotent..

..all things that draw a clear and sharp line among technology and magic.

While some fantasy worlds draw that line, many do not. The only thing that prevents magic and technology from working together (or, indeed, from being the exact same thing) is a creator typing up an arbitrary, hand-wavy explanation for why not. GRRM has not yet taken the time to give such an explanation. Given that in his words the characters just "make it up as they go" I'd even say that an enterprising maester could just wizard up some technology, or machinate some wizardry. Why not? Final Fantasy 6 did it 2 years before ASOIAF even began, so it's not like the idea is new and frightening. You could even say ASOIAF's magic is a bit behind the times.

Even with those constraints you mentioned, one could still splice magic with technology. You could do like (again) Final Fantasy 6 and grab a Melisandre or Leaf, strap them into a steampunk contraption and suck the magic out of them like an arcane cow. How? Science! Magic! Third Law that thing, see how far it can go.

[George48]

Two prerequisites must be met in order to unlock the potential for a scientific revolution:

• A progressive ruler on the throne
  
• The spread of knowledge
  

The former had faily good chances of happening since most candidates (Stannis, Dany... maybe Aegon) seem to be more or less progressive and eager for reforms.

The latter... not quite: it would either require a printing press of a radical reform in the measter order (more academies...)

Once this is done, Westeros will begin to advance technologically:

Bigger retitues, long contracts with sellswords, pike formations and then standing armies will be first IMO ("nobles are unreliable")

Sooner or later they might discover gunpowder... and with mass cannons and muskets dragons won't be almost invincible anymore.

These innovations would then either help the ruler centralise Westeros, breaking the power of the nobles (especially after the huge civil war and Other invasion)

An other thing that might happen are religious wars: r'hllorirm is spreading and it might enter in conflict with the Faith. In a climate of religious stife the North might become a safe haven and thinkers would begin to value peace, order and tollerance thus shirtly leading to rationalism and a "westerosi enlightment".

By this time, I think that a propper industrial revolution will start to kick in: wheels and cogs, at first drawn by mammoths and then by steam or any fuel will rebuild Westeros.

Revolution WILL be innevitable: with literacy rates skyrocketing, a scientific and industial revolution people would begin to demand reforms and soon some are going to look at Braavos with a smile on their faces and republicanism will be born.

Dragons would not be used for war, only either for exibitions, transport of work (cannons and massed musketeers an kill them).

Westeros at this point would either become a federation, shatter into nationalistic kingdoms and republics or unite (republic most likely).

Once the first railways and breech-loading guns are invented it's game over for the Others because modern arttillery is not far behind.

I do think that some "magical" things like glass candles will be preserved, studied and maybe immitated. Who knows, maybe the first bullet-proof vests and helmets will be made out of Valyrian steel.

[Waters Gate]

As I said, my considerations start from a single point: when you have enough power concentrated in your hands and there is a huge difference in power among you and any other, it is easier and safer to keep everyone else from growing a little than aiming to grow yourself. You do not need extra power to be the uber pro, you just need to ensure no one else grows as your competitor. I can think of lots of examples in real life, especially among corporations, in which this observation is true

Still: competition, and the wise words of a bunch of Chinese philosophers on the emperors question as to deliver him a wisdom that would always hold true: everything changes. Exactly how long do you think humans will stagnate technoligy wise at any time? the People of Terros progressed before, from bronze age to iron age etc. Evolution is a natural process?

To properly respond to your point, however, my observation doesn't suffice. Thus, I shall ask you to consider real history. Nobility, in middle ages, had no dragons but all the power. Their power had no limits downwards, but constraints upwards. However, following up the chain of power, you would eventually end up in a single person having absolute power (the king) and no restriction. Historically, none of these people ever pursued industrial innovation or technological advancement.

Thats not true. Ever heard for ex. of Enrique the navigator? But thats just a simple ex., there were quite a few kings or rulers who pushed innovation. And merchant republics like venice often were at the front of new innovations aswell.

. Since they were already at the peak of society, and their risks came from other nobles trying to defeat them with armies, they were focused on raising taxes and growing soldiers. When they needed more money and resources, they simply obliged the common folk to pay more and work more. Although there might be exception on a limited scale, it is true that up until when this feudal system was standing in Europe, the industrial revolution did not trigger. The industrial revolution triggered after societal changes that put merchants on top of society, and this happened after nobility proved powerless because they only consume resources and do not produce them.

As Medieval Europe transformed towards the age of exploration, a process triggered by a few things like for Ex. Marco polo's voyage, the merchant class became more prominent at the side of the ruling class, as expansion of power went hand in hand with expansion of commerce. And rulers would fund expeditions with the ultimate goal to increase the state's treasure, be it expeditions of trade, or conquest , or both. Sure the Britisch traders generated a lot of wealth for the Crown, for example from it's conquered colonies in India, but much of that opportunity had been provided for by the help of proffesional armies and navy's that had to be payed.

This transitional period saw a shift afaik from levied armies to more proffesional armies, and thus incentivised rulers to seek more wealth to pay them with, or expand the economy for that purpose. Competition between great powers in Europe, which was utterly fierce in this period, Incentivised kings to seek ways to improve the capabilety's of their armies and navy's.

Merchants are the true and only people who are going to care how to make more wealth out of an activity, let it be buying and selling, or producing stuff. Historically, it was this class of citizens that pushed toward the adoption of technology advancements, because they could benefit from it by multiplying their income.

Millitary freaks contribute too. How much did the world not invent in times of world wars with rather planned economies? Many innovations made in weaponry were made by people from a millitary background from own (survivalist) incentive, although many millitary developments would turn out to have some civilian uses aswell. Medical science i guess for ex. was well forwarded by having youre occasional grand bloodbath.

My point isn't that Dragon Lords couldn't become richer and more powerful by exploiting industrialization - as you correctly objected to me, they could - , but rather that their inherent nature prevents them to seek such opportunities and exploit them.

Well, when you summerize it like that, then i guess i would argue that just as european nations sought to increase their power in a competetive setting leading to the ultimatly commercially expansionist endavour of colonization to support larger armies, so should competition in the world of ice and fire push innovations, and ultimatly they should arrive at the industrial age at some point.

[Pod The Impaler]

The Citadel is trying to force it into existence at any cost.

Magic must die so technology can dominate.

[Mal Malenkirk]

The technology level of Westeros seems stuck in the late middle age, just shy of the start of the renaissance. But the political organization is a purer feudalism than anything we've ever had in Europe. The scope is incredible; Westeros is big like North America yet the crown directly controls less lands and has less ressources to its name than France did back when the King of France ruled over several vassals. It's kind of hard to gauge how far they are from developping into a modern state.

[m'lady Melisandre]

snip

Well, thank you for sharing your own opinion again. :cool4:

[Lion of the West]

What might it look like if Westros underwent an industrial and scientific revolution similar to the one that hit Europe after the Middle Ages? There are many things that would be effected.

Would magic creatures survive in such a changing world (Dragons, Children of the forest, Giants, wizards, etc.)? If so, what place would they have?

What role would magic have in this? (Valyrian Steel, Wildfire, etc.)

How would this effect the political landscape?

What might cause such a scientific revolution?

Remember, I am only asking for your OPINION. This scenario is purely hypothetical.

Don't say "it won't happen in the story so we shouldn't even discuss it".

1. Mass extinction of wildlife species, including all magic ones for a start.

2. No role whatsoever

3. Probalby little in the sense we would still have a authocratic regime. There have been many authocratic regimes who were/are industrialized and there's no thing like the Roman Republic of Democracy of Athens to inspire a new political model

4. The same thing as in reality I would suppose

And I hope it will never, ever happen for different reasons.

[HosteenOsteen]

Feel actually in the world that we are seeing in ASOIAF a scientific revolution is not THAT far away, if the Others are foiled..it is what the non-Marwyn maestros are working towards.....