Grand Maester Boethius, ah, Orwyle [and Hareth, too]

[Lord Varys]

Ran has given us a more detailed account on a third favorite mysterious Grand Maester (the second most favorite mysterious Grand Maester is, of course, Grand Maester Hareth, and the most favorite mysterious Grand Maester True Gerardys, not to be confused with Gerardys-Orwyle from TRP ;-)).

We now know that Grand Maester Orwyle was imprisoned, and wrote his own account of the Dance of the Dragons in his cell in preparation for his trial in an attempt to justify his actions during the war and to paint himself in the best possible light.

Grand Maester Munkun's history - The Dance of the Dragons - A True Telling - is largely based on Orwyle's account and is the third major source Gyldayn uses for his history of the Dance of the Dragons (itself being part of the forthcoming 'Fire and Blood').

Now, this makes Orwyle a very interesting character and his account closely resembling Boethius' fate and writings in preparation for his trial and execution (despite the fact that Boethius wrote a philosophical treatise, De consolatione philosophiae, whereas Orwyle apparently tried to save his neck with a history.

The remaining questions include:

1. Who was imprisoning Orwyle? Rhaenyra or Aegon II? TPatQ would suggest Orwyle as he disappears from this text when Daemon's Goldcloaks arrest him when Rhaenyra takes the city. However, in TWoIaF we learn that Munkun has his information about Larys Strong's plan to hide Aegon II and his children from Orwyle's account. If Rhaenyra was the one trying and eventually executing Orwyle one should expect that she would have learned from Orwyle about the whereabouts of Aegon II if the former did actual discuss the details of Aegon's disappearance in his account.

It may be that Orwyle was imprisoned and considered a traitor by both Rhaenyra and Aegon, subsequently, and that he wrote his account through the year he spent in the cell - first trying to paint himself as a Black loyalist and then as Green loyalist after Aegon II had been restored to the throne.

2. Has the back story of Pseudo Gerardys from TRP (actually Orwyle, the maester who amputated Viserys' fingers and saved his life) transferred without changes from Gerardys to Orwyle - that is, is Orwyle now the Maester of Dragonstone who saved Viserys' life, and tried to save Laena Velaryon's life when died in childbirth to eventually become Grand Maester shortly before the beginning of the Dance?

3. How figures Gerardys into all of that? How can he have been fed to Aegon's dragon (Sunfyre) if Orwyle was Grand Maester until Rhaenyra took the city? Is Gerardys now a Grand Maester raised by Rhaenyra/on her orders after she took the city (i.e. the replacement for Orwyle)? If so, keeps Real Gerardys the Gerardys back story from TRP - being the Maester of Dragonstone - but does not become Grand Maester shortly before the beginning of the Dance (which is an office given to Orwyle at that time). Then Gerardys could come in and claim the office of the Grand Maester after Rhaenyra's rise to power and Orwyle's arrest. But him being fed to Sunfyre would be a very difficult thing to accomplish in this scenario. The only way I could see that happening is if Gerardys accompanied Rhaenyra back to Dragonstone and was taken by Aegon II along with her and Aegon the Younger, and ended up being fed to Sunfyre alongside Rhaenyra/shortly or sometime thereafter.

Any thoughts on that? And of course clarification from Ran is always welcome!

[The hairy bear]

1. Who was imprisoning Orwyle? Rhaenyra or Aegon II? TPatQ would suggest Orwyle as he disappears from this text when Daemon's Goldcloaks arrest him when Rhaenyra takes the city. However, in TWoIaF we learn that Munkun has his information about Larys Strong's plan to hide Aegon II and his children from Orwyle's account. If Rhaenyra was the one trying and eventually executing Orwyle one should expect that she would have learned from Orwyle about the whereabouts of Aegon II if the former did actual discuss the details of Aegon's disappearance in his account.

It may be that Orwyle was imprisoned and considered a traitor by both Rhaenyra and Aegon, subsequently, and that he wrote his account through the year he spent in the cell - first trying to paint himself as a Black loyalist and then as Green loyalist after Aegon II had been restored to the throne.

The tone of Orwyle's interventions, always trying to push for peaceful solutions and cautiously avoiding to take clear sides, suggest may have been written to appease the group of regents (from both sides) that ruled in the early years of Aegon III reign. Otherwise one would expect them to be skewed towards the dominating side at the moment.

I'm convinced that it was Rhaneyra who first imprisoned Orwyle. His last appearance is when Daemon's Gold Cloaks escort him to the Black Cells. The TWOIAF quote that you mention can be interpreted in several ways:

Munkun’s True Telling, based upon Orwyle’s account, reveals that when King’s Landing fell, Larys Strong saw to it that the king was spirited away to hide. Cunningly, Strong sent him to Dragonstone, rightly believing that Rhaenyra would never think to look for her brother at her own stronghold. For half a year he recovered from his wounds in a remote fishing village while Rhaenyra and much of her court were in King’s Landing, and during that time Sunfyre arrived from Crackclaw Point, despite the dragon’s crippled wing, which made it ungainly in the air.

It's obvious that the green part can't come from Orwyle (he wouldn't know). It's something Munkun got from other sources. So we can as well assume that the blue part also doesn't come from Orwyle. The only bit of information that would come from the Orwyle would be the information that it was Larys who led the operation to spirit away the king. And this matches nicely with the idea of Orwyle writing his book in the cells: he'd want to make clear that the escape of Aegon had nothing to do with him.

We were all convinced that Orwyle was the Black mole in the Green Council. In the early stages of the war, he seems to actively work for a peaceful solution, and perhaps passing information, but nothing more. It doesn't seem that he actually does anything substantial for the black cause (the Blood and Cheese incident is arranged by the pale stranger). Later on he gives actual good councel to the greens (suggesting to join forces with the Stormlanders before attacking the Riverlands) and when he is seized it seems that he was trying to send ravens to the "loyal lords" as Aegon had ordered him.

Raenyra would have had him captured because she expected much more help from him (he had been her personal maester, and surely he owed his position to her). Aegon would have kept him in the cells if he had suspected later that he had been a green informant (after all Otto and Wylde were executed, and Orwyle not). With the regents in power, Orwyle would try to present himself as a man of peace that had pushed for reconciliation.

2. Has the back story of Pseudo Gerardys from TRP (actually Orwyle, the maester who amputated Viserys' fingers and saved his life) transferred without changes from Gerardys to Orwyle - that is, is Orwyle now the Maester of Dragonstone who saved Viserys' life, and tried to save Laena Velaryon's life when died in childbirth to eventually become Grand Maester shortly before the beginning of the Dance?

I'm convinced that's the case. It would be to coincidental to have two different maesters of Dragonstone that are great healers and are trusted by Rhaenyra. The Lanea-tender and the Viserys-healer have to be the same person.

The sequence would be GM Mellos -> GM Orwyle -> GM Gerardys.

3. How figures Gerardys into all of that? How can he have been fed to Aegon's dragon (Sunfyre) if Orwyle was Grand Maester until Rhaenyra took the city? Is Gerardys now a Grand Maester raised by Rhaenyra/on her orders after she took the city (i.e. the replacement for Orwyle)? If so, keeps Real Gerardys the Gerardys back story from TRP - being the Maester of Dragonstone - but does not become Grand Maester shortly before the beginning of the Dance (which is an office given to Orwyle at that time). Then Gerardys could come in and claim the office of the Grand Maester after Rhaenyra's rise to power and Orwyle's arrest. But him being fed to Sunfyre would be a very difficult thing to accomplish in this scenario. The only way I could see that happening is if Gerardys accompanied Rhaenyra back to Dragonstone and was taken by Aegon II along with her and Aegon the Younger, and ended up being fed to Sunfyre alongside Rhaenyra/shortly or sometime thereafter.

I think that, as you say, Gerardys accompanied Rhaenyra to Dragonstone when he abandoned King's Landing. I don't see any complication with this idea. It would seem logical that the entire court went with her. If she was to continue ruling

[Lord Varys]

Hm. I did not think of him being awaiting trial/execution under the regents. That could be the case but I'm not completely sold on that. Ran has indicated that Orwyle was actually quite an important guy/character, suggesting that he played a more active role during the Dance than one might think based on the scarce information we have - or at least that he wrote his account in a way that made him appear to be much more important and active than he actually was.

But if there is some truth to this it may be that Orwyle is going to turn out to be quite a slippery fish, bending over backwards to stay in the good graces of everybody. That could mean he got imprisoned a lot of times, getting out of jail for a short while when the regime changed until he was again blamed for something or was caught while plotting against the guy in charge. I could see his first stint in prison beginning after the downfall of Ser Otto Hightower or in the wake of Blood and Cheese - surely Aegon II would have wanted to blame somebody for what happened to Jaehaerys and Helaena. Alicent and Ser Criston may have released him again after Rook's Rest since he was such a good healer and Aegon II was in desperate need of all the medical help he could get. If he was indeed the Black mole on the Small Council he may have failed/refused to do certain things prior to Rhaenyra taking the capital causing the Blacks to doubt his loyalty and leading to his subsequent imprisonment. One could suspect that Rhaenyra suspected him of having a hand in Aegon's disappearance and/or was pissed about the fact that Orwyle didn't use the chance to kill Aegon while he caring for him after Rook's Rest.

Whether Rhaenyra subsequently let Orwyle out again is another question - if she did, then this would have led to Aegon II imprisoning him again after his restoration, of course, since he would have changed sides again. If he was free around the time of the riots he may actually have been involved in them - and if he subsequently joined the government of 'King Trystane' this would also have been perceived as treason by Aegon II.

If Orwyle had survived the Dance surely he could have put the whole stuff about Aegon II and Sunfyre in his account, though. Certainly Aegon II revealed how he survived and triumphed over Rhaenyra to his inner circle after his restoration, perhaps even to the public.

The Gerardys paradox has the following problem:

If Orwyle gets the past of TRP Gerardys - great healer, maester of Dragonstone, carer of Laena and Viserys I (the latter became canon in TWoIaF) - then he also got the past of being a sort of confidant of Rhaenyra due to the fact that he served her as maester on Dragonstone for decades before becoming Grand Maester - and we should assume/expect that the choosing of Gerardys-Orwyle as Grand Maester was a huge success for the Black cause at this point in history.

Theoretically it could be that Orwyle only kept TRP-Gerardys' role of a great healer without remaining the Maester of Dragonstone - that could then be Gerardys who only comes to KL with Rhaenyra. But Ran has told the whole Gerardys story is a new secret history thing supposedly more interesting than the original story.

Oh, and to talk a little bit about mysterious Hareth here:

I could see multiple points in history where he conducted his plot. Supposedly he tried to usurp Targaryen rule which makes it likely he did not support another Targaryen pretender but tried to pull something else off.

1. Aegon I: Hareth is Grand Maester during the First Dornish War and tries to get rid of Aegon and Visenya in the wake of Rhaenys' loss in 10 AC.

2. Maegor the Cruel: He is the third unknown Grand Maester executed by Maegor for joining the Faith Militant and trying to get rid of the Targaryen dynasty altogether.

3. Jaehaerys I: He is Grand Maester when Maegor kills himself and tries to prevent Jaehaerys' ascension during the interregnum while Alyssa, Robar, and Jaehaerys haven't reached the capital.

4. Daeron II: He is Grand Maester during the First Blackfyre Rebellion and joins the Black Dragon.

5. Maekar I: He is Grand Maester in 233 AC and tries to sabotage the Great Council to make Aenys Blackfyre king or to end the reign of the dragons altogether.

Any other ideas?

[Hardstone]

He could have backed one of the fake Daeron's during the reign of Aegon III. He could have been the Maester that birthed the real one and threw in with a pretender before getting found out/confessing.

[Bran Vras]

The tone of Orwyle's interventions, always trying to push for peaceful solutions and cautiously avoiding to take clear sides, suggest may have been written to appease the group of regents (from both sides) that ruled in the early years of Aegon III reign. Otherwise one would expect them to be skewed towards the dominating side at the moment.

There is another reading of Maester Orwyle. I suppose one can see him as well meaning, but somewhat naive, man dedicated to peace. But it makes perfect sense to see a shrewd manipulator. I believe that GRRM has been written him deliberately in an ambivalent way. One has just to read the account of the events that led to the Dance (all quotes taken from TPatQ).

Consider the meeting of the small council that followed the death of King Viserys. It is essential to note that at that point only Otto Hightower, Alicent and Criston Cole seem to be plotting a coup.

Grand Maester Orwyle opened the meeting by reviewing the customary tasks and procedures required at the death of a king. He said, “Septon Eustace should be summoned to perform the last rites and pray for the king’s soul. A raven must needs be sent to Dragonstone at once to inform Princess Rhaenyra of her father’s passing. Mayhaps Her Grace the queen would care to write the message, so as to soften these sad tidings with some words of condolence? The bells are always rung to announce the death of a king, someone should see to that, and of course we must begin to make our preparations for Queen Rhaenyra’s coronation—”

Ser Otto Hightower cut him off. “All this must needs wait,” he declared, “until the question of succession is settled.” As the King’s Hand, he was empowered to speak with the king’s voice, even to sit the Iron Throne in the king’s absence. Viserys had granted him the authority to rule over the Seven Kingdoms, and “until such time as our new king is crowned,” that rule would continue.

The words of Maester Orwyle seem devilishly calculated to sound innocent while putting pressure on the greens. Indeed, the suggestion that the Queen offers her condolences to the Princess would certainly be a gesture of goodwill, but I suppose anyone who knows the relation between those women would guess that it would be inacceptable to Alicent. Indeed, the widow of the king should feel entitled to receive condolences. So I suppose Maester Orwyle knew that his suggestion would be rejected. Has he hurt deliberately Alicent's and Otto's pride?

Moreover, Orwyle mentions the coronation as the next inevitable event. Surely, it would have been more astute not to mention the coronation so bluntly, but rather to talk only of the funerals. In a case of unresolved conflict, when all parties distrust each other but are not determined to confront each other, it is preferable to maintain a polite fiction by not bringing up the elephant in the room, until smart intermediaries can help solve the situation.

At this point, both parties seem amenable to a compromise. Let's turn now to Orwyle's main initiative: go to Dragonstone and make a peace offer to Rhaenyra (who was well known to him).

The terms offered by the king were generous. If the princess would acknowledge him as king and make obeisance before the Iron Throne, Aegon II would confirm her in her possession of Dragonstone, and allow the island and castle to pass to her son Jacaerys upon her death. Her second son, Lucerys, would be recognized as the rightful heir to Driftmark, and the lands and holdings of House Velaryon; her boys by Prince Daemon, Aegon the Younger and Viserys, would be given places of honor at court, the former as the king’s squire, the latter as his cupbearer. Pardons would be granted to those lords and knights who had conspired treasonously with her against their true king.

Rhaenyra heard these terms in stony silence, then asked Orwyle if he remembered her father, King Viserys. “Of course, Your Grace,” the maester answered. “Perhaps you can tell us who he named as his heir and successor,” the queen said, her crown upon her head. “You, Your Grace,” Orwyle replied. And Rhaenyra nodded and said, “With your own tongue you admit I am your lawful queen. Why then do you serve my half brother, the pretender? Tell my half brother that I will have my throne, or I will have his head,” she said, sending the envoys on their way.

Aegon II was two-and-twenty, quick to anger and slow to forgive. Rhaenyra’s refusal to accept his rule enraged him. “I offered her an honorable peace, and the whore spat in my face,” he declared. “What happens now is on her own head.”

Even as he spoke, the Dance began.

Of course, the terms offered by Aegon were not generous. However, a compromise must begin with something. The initial terms of a negotiation are sometimes far removed from what would be accepted by both sides eventually. The task of the negotiator consists precisely in facilitating communication between both parties and in imagining a mutually agreeable resolution.

Daemon's intransigeance seems to be a major obstacle to peace. However, it was Rhaenyra who refused abruptly Orwyle's proposal for peace. I can't help concluding that Orwyle's failure is due to his own awkwardness, since it seems that both parties were amenable to compromise.

We can see in this episode the failure of Orwyle's good intentions...

...or, alternately, the preemption of peacemaking to ensure that hostilities would follow, and that antipathy would be solidified. Indeed, there would be no more attempt at peaceful resolution until Rhaenyra had won the Throne. Whether Orwyle was ill intentioned is not possible to establish with certainty. But he went to Dragonstone knowing his business, and knowing very well Princess Rhaenyra. The princess' reaction was perfectly predictable for the Grandmaester. Hence we can opt to judge a tree by its fruits: Grand Maester Orwyle's mission precipitated the war.

Why would Orwyle cause a war? It's worthwhile to round up the situation in Westeros at the time.

At the beginning of the Dance of the Dragons, the Targaryens seem at the peak of their power. Twenty dragons are now in their possession. It can be expected that the number of beasts will continue to grow. Dragons prosper and multiply in Westeros.

Moreover, the Targaryens themselves have never been so numerous: Viserys had a daughter and six grandchildren by his first wife, and three sons, one daughter and three grandchildren by his second wife. Those descendants are desirable spouses for the highest lords of the realm, and would take residence with their dragons. Over a few generations, the Seven Kingdoms seem destined to a revolution, dragons not being the prerogagive of the royal family in King's Landing but a manifestation of power for the nobility of Westeros which had intermingled with the Targaryens. Lord Borros Baratheon's desire to marry one of his daughters to the Targaryens is a fine illustration of such a development. Had Aemond married a Baratheon's daughter, Storm's End would have been the residence of Vhagar, the largest living dragon, that Aemond's son with the Baratheon's girl could have inherited.

That situation would naturally lead some to worry about the course of History. Are the Seven Kingdoms on the way to be ruled by dragon lords?

Finally, a key is given to us implicitly by Daemon Targaryen, who points to the maesters.

It is no easy thing for a man to be a dragonslayer. But dragons can kill dragons, and have. Any maester who has ever studied the history of Valyria can tell you that.

(All this is taken from my study of the political influence of the Citadel.)

[Wicked Woodpecker of West]

So if I understand correctly Gerardys was never official Conclave-appointed Great Maester.
He was appointed by Half-Year Queen and he shared her fate.
Meanwhile legit Great Maester Orwyle was imprisoned in King's Landing to fate unknown.