Stannis flunked warfare 101 in the Battle of Blackwater

[danm_999]

Tywin teleported into King's Landing, so why the hell not?

No, Tywin marched down the Kingsroad from the Riverlands, a march a fraction of the distance between the Kingswood and the Westerlands, and still only just made it in time.

You seem to forget Stannis had a huge navy parked around Dragonstone, which, coincidenttally, was located right at the opening of Blackwater Bay. You suggest such a competent commander fail to send ships where they would be most useful?

Stannis navy is besieging Storm's End when Myrcella is sent away. They're not in a position to intercept a VIP from King's Landing Stannis has no earthly way of knowing is being sent to Braavos.

And while we're at it on your fuzzy geography and timeline; he also has no way to intercept Littlefinger. Baelish is sent down the Roseroad the moment a raven informs the Small Council Renly is dead. Remember; this is before Storm's End has fallen and Stannis turns northward.

So expecting him to be blocking all traffic from King's Landing when he's still in the Stormlands falls under your ridiculous "why can't Stannis teleport and know all" criticism.

[Scipio Africanus]

So expecting him to be blocking all traffic from King's Landing when he's still in the Stormlands falls under your ridiculous "why can't Stannis teleport and know all" criticism.

Though I agree with your sentiment, doesn't he have Red "deus ex mechanica" Mel to inform him about such things?

[Kusanagi]

Bear with me, Ive not even taken warfare 101, but I wonder if Stannis was overconfident since he thought the vision of Renly beating him could not come to pass and he averted the outcome of the battle as seen in the flames.

Davos in Clash.

On the other hand he couldn´t have known that Tyrion had that much wildfire at his disposal and no scrupels to use it, nor that he found a way to deal the blow using the Blackwater current as hammer and the chain as anvil to smash the fleet.

Davos also mentioned how Imry Florent rushed into the river without scout and how his navy just arrived on scene expecting a set piece battle with the navy at the King's Landing. Davos also knew Tyrion had a chain but didn't know what it was for and where. Stopping Florent and command a probe could have avoid that or at least minimize the damage.

[danm_999]

Though I agree with your sentiment, doesn't he have Red "deus ex mechanica" Mel to inform him about such things?

I suppose even if she saw Littlefinger going to Bitterbridge, there wasn't really anything Stannis could go about it while besieging Storm's End.

[Nyrhex]

Oh my.

I wouldn't typing fast enough.

That's OK, just ignore specific posts and repeat your previouse points in a different manner untill everyone will give up and leave you to claim "victory" by default.

1. A good commander was supposed to have forward elements to inform and or alert him/her; this is the intel, the I part in Command, Control, Communication and Intelligence . If that forward elements got destroy, a good commander would do anything to regain that, and would not committed his force before he can do so.

Still doesn't mean that he had time to worry about thier dissapearance and react.

2. The navy cannot commit its force like that without know that seige plan and battle order. How can it help to ferry the army if it didn't know the battle order?? A cluster rush to the ship wouldn't help. Stannis just failed to command, control and communicate.

The navy did know. Hell, even the retreat was orderly. Where exactly do you read about a cluster of people trying to get on the boats?

3. Wildfire and chain or not, he should have command a probe upriver first. His navy dominated the bay remember?? He could have avoided the river wholesale by just ferrying the whole army across the bay. Avoiding the clansman at the same time as well.

So land your landing party in an area controled by the Lannisters, waste days between ferries, meanwhile your landing party can be destroyed, and arrive opposite of the weakest point in the walls, to lay siege between the city and the enemy's army?

4. If he did send out recon parties, important point, recon parties along major communication route, not just Kingswood where Tyrion's "scouts"

were supposed to be, then he would know Lannister and Tyrell were coming from both sides. He had a chance to intercept Littlefinger as well.

They arrived from one side, a battle broke right before they reached Stannis's army, and swung hard left. What are you on about?

5. It seems people are suggesting that Stannis would be be smart enough to send enough forces to guard major road and passes, where a few can stop many. Even if we assume Littlefinger's party annihilate the guards, wouldn't Stannis know something's up beacuse there was a lack of communication or supply being delayed??

He was there for a few days, he could have lost an army of scouts and still there would be not enough time to raise questions.

6. Some people seems to suggest Robert had no alliance....sure, Aerys didn't sit on the Iron Throne as well.

He had, but not for his action. RR was won despite Robert.

7. Why would Lannister vassals switch side? Lannister ruled with fear and gold. Once Casterly Rock was captured or razed, both fear and flow of gold would diminish. And any army there was in the postion to offer battler whereas the return Lannister host could only accept it. That's what Robb was think of.

Robb lost Winterfell. Only combined with the breach of the mariage alliance with the Frey's did one of his vassals turn against him. Had Stannis went to CR, Tywin's host would still link up with the Tyrells, and would now have Stannis against the wall with nowhere to retreat.

The use of modern military acronym especially bugs me, since we are talking about a fictional charachter, written by a writer who dodged the draft in real life. Not to mention that it's a fantasy/medieval setting, where things work a bit different.

But more then that, it's the title, as if you yourself pass because you know the words Recon, and C3I.

[danm_999]

Davos also mentioned how Imry Florent rushed into the river without scout and how his navy just arrived on scene expecting a set piece battle with the navy at the King's Landing. Davos also knew Tyrion had a chain but didn't know what it was for and where. Stopping Florent and command a probe could have avoid that or at least minimize the damage.

How?

[E-Ro]

The question is, did Stannis also flunk Reading 101?

:lmao: I dont think so, but I might know someone who did.

[Kusanagi]

No, Tywin marched down the Kingsroad from the Riverlands, a march a fraction of the distance between the Kingswood and the Westerlands, and still only just made it in time.

Ok. Give me the exactly distance between KL and Harrenhal and the time it took Tywin to finish the march then. And which part of "Stannis didn't need to reach Casterly Rock" did you miss?

Stannis navy is besieging Storm's End when Myrcella is sent away. They're not in a position to intercept a VIP from King's Landing Stannis has no earthly way of knowing is being sent to Braavos.

With his whole navy?? He couldn't send a few to raid around the trade route in and out of Blackwater Bay? What of of commander was he?

And while we're at it on your fuzzy geography and timeline; he also has no way to intercept Littlefinger. Baelish is sent down the Roseroad the moment a raven informs the Small Council Renly is dead. Remember; this is before Storm's End has fallen and Stannis turns northward.

So expecting him to be blocking all traffic from King's Landing when he's still in the Stormlands falls under your ridiculous "why can't Stannis teleport and know all" criticism.

So how did Stannis miss the whole army when Littlefinger and Tyrell march back up north?

[Scipio Africanus]

I suppose even if she saw Littlefinger going to Bitterbridge, there wasn't really anything Stannis could go about it while besieging Storm's End.

Might've seen Myrcella sailing out though.

But I guess the flames don't see everything. Only when its important to Martin's story. ;)

:lmao: I dont think so, but I might know someone who did.

You know its odd that there is much discussion considering that Martin took a lot of time describing the battle from two POVs. In fact it's Martin's most described battle. The preparation beforehand by Tyrion was also described in detail.

If you combine all that info with a little common sense it should leave little to the imagination.

[Kusanagi]

How?

.............and I thought Stannis was a brilliant commander. I don't know, fire signal mayhaps. An standing order to tell Florent to meet up with him if possible?

[Naathi Prince]

I think its a little silly to insult Stannis for losing on the Blackwater, considering how much luck it took for the Lannisters to win

[The Raven's Teeth]

He did send forces ahead under Guyard Morrigen, and I'm fairly sure it is indicated that Tyrion's wildlings tangled with them. As far as outriders upriver of the Blackwater, who is to say he didn't? But the Lannisters and Tyrells may have been able to rid themselves of those, and so prevented Stannis from learning what happened in those last crucial hours

He couldn't cross upstream since he needed the trees of the kingswood to make the rafts he needed to get the bulk of his men across.

Stannis could not make a surprise attack on Casterly Rock. There is no way his army would cross half of Westeros without Tywin being aware of it. Further, Stannis believed that if he won King's Landing and executed Cersei, Joffrey, and so on that it would more or less end the war. the Lannisters would lose support even among their own vassals, the Tyrells might grudgingly decide they missed their chance and bend the knee,.

The navy absolutely did know what the plan was -- I'm surprised you missed Davos explaining how a portion of the fleet was going to the south bank to help ferry men over while another part engaged the royal fleet and yet another part landed the first wave of men on the northern bank.

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Myrcella travelled by sea, and there was no way scouts were going to get her. As for Stannis, he did 't really have any means to place scouting parties in anything like an effective cordon. They'd be beaten up piecemeal. And, in any case, Littlefinger had a strong escort

The lack of alliances is true enough.

I was going to reply to this... But Ran has said everything I was going to say...

[danm_999]

Ok. Give me the exactly distance between KL and Harrenhal and the time it took Tywin to finish the march then.

Why? Look at a map of Westeros. The distance of Tywin's march is a fraction of what would be needed to get Stannis into the Westerlands.

And which part of "Stannis didn't need to reach Casterly Rock" did you miss?

None of it; hence the phrase "between the Kingswood and the Westerlands".

With his whole navy?? He couldn't send a few to raid around the trade route in and out of Blackwater Bay? What of of commander was he?

Yes; it's what was transporting his whole army to Storm's End. Kind of more useful than parking in the Blackwater Bay and doing what exactly? Starving the city? Renly is already doing for you (starving King's Landing by blocking the Roseroad).

So how did Stannis miss the whole army when Littlefinger and Tyrell march back up north?

...

Because they're not on the path in between Storm's End and King's Landing. They're at Bitterbridge, in the opposite direction.

Look, I'm just going to link you a map here of the south, because I feel you're not 100% on the fundamentals.

.............and I thought Stannis was a brilliant commander. I don't know, fire signal mayhaps.

Signal fires to warn him about what? The wildfire Tyrion hadn't deployed yet because the fleet hadn't arrived...? The towers that didn't seem to be doing anything and were contigent on the unseen wildfire being used?

How much hindsight are we going to indulge here?

An standing order to tell Florent to meet up with him if possible?

What do you think Florent was trying to do sailing down the Blackwater? The fleet was supposed to ferry Stannis across.

[Veltigar]

To be honest I think his fatal error was being too proud to bring Melisandre along. He was well aware of her potential as a game changing weapon, but decided not to accept her help because he was afraid it would undermine his own glory. Obviously I don't really have anything tangible to base this on, but I have a feeling that things would have gone rather differently with her around.

Nope, Mel was wrong all along about the battle. She thought that killing Renly would prevent the vision of Renly in armor defeating Stannis, but it actually made it happen. So, you could say that she was the cause of his downfall! (that and the stupid decision of naming imry Florent as fleetcommander).

As to why he didn't try to built alliances I have one thing to say => timeconstraints. The only usefull alliance he could have struck for the battle was with the Tyrells, but that was impossible because of the Loras/Renly relationship. And even if he had time... why bother? If he had won the battle, then he would have automaticly won the Tyrells, the Martells, the Arryns and the Starks over without having to give them anything. If he were to treat with them before the battle, than he would have had to give them large concessions. Which isn't very economical.

[Lykos]

Kusanagi, it was too late and Davos also saw the advantage of a swift strong blow, it was just against his cautious nature.

They were warned of the wildfire, but thought the enemy would soon run out of it, and while they could have considered the forgotten stash of Aerys, there was no way knowing of the pyromancer´s spells suddenly becoming more potent.

I feel Stannis should have attacked the winchtower (7) at his side of the Blackwater with enough force to take it and he might have saved most of his fleet and as a bonus would have had a small fortified position in case of an attack on the flank.

But as so many pointed out, Stannis main objective was to take King´s Landing as fast as possible and defend it against the Tyrells and Lannisters should they come with one man on the walls being worth ten before it, and it was a close call with everything going against him.

And unlike the Lannisters he would have the fleet to support the city, that´s why Tyrion´s plan was breaking his neck.

ETA: Link

ETA 2:

She thought that killing Renly would prevent the vision of Renly in armor defeating Stannis, but it actually made it happen.

Like!

[Kusanagi]

The use of modern military acronym especially bugs me, since we are talking about a fictional charachter, written by a writer who dodged the draft in real life. Not to mention that it's a fantasy/medieval setting, where things work a bit different.

But more then that, it's the title, as if you yourself pass because you know the words Recon, and C3I.

1. So a good commander wouldn't worry where his forward elements go? He wouldn't worry that he would be missing vital information? And he would commit his full force in that situation?

2. From this very own wiki: "Ser Imry did not send scouts ahead, and recklessly attacked immediately, leaving only a contingent of mercenary galleys led by Salladhor Saan as rear guard guard out in the bay". The navy didn't know Stannis's plan and if it did it didn't follow.

3. How is the KL north stronger than the south? There was a huge river and crossing it wasn't easy; it would still be a landing operation no matter where. Guerrillas were roaming about in the south bank and Tyrell could march up and was indeed marching on Roseroad. KL's attention was on the south bank, and the open field up north would allow Stannis a proper assault.

4. How did Stannis miss the fact that Tyrell was marching up north?

5. Then he was not a good commander.

6. Did it matter how Robert's got his allies?

7. Or Stannis could somehow miss the vital information that there were two armies coming for him and pinning him down in KL, then decided to commit all his forces at this very moment.

Don't people just hate provocative titles? And how people should feel insulted if the virtue of a fictional character is being questioned?

And don't we all love to resort to ad hominem at the first instance?

[Kusanagi]

Kusanagi, it was too late and Davos also saw the advantage of a swift strong blow, it was just against his cautious nature.

They were warned of the wildfire, but thought the enemy would soon run out of it, and while they could have considered the forgotten stash of Aerys, there was no way knowing of the pyromancer´s spells suddenly becoming more potent.

I feel Stannis should have attacked the winchtower (7) at his side of the Blackwater with enough force to take it and he might have saved most of his fleet and as a bonus would have had a small fortified position in case of an attack on the flank.

But as so many pointed out, Stannis main objective was to take King´s Landing as fast as possible and defend it against the Tyrells and Lannisters should they come with one man on the walls being worth ten before it, and it was a close call with everything going against him.

And unlike the Lannisters he would have the fleet to support the city, that´s why Tyrion´s plan was breaking his neck.

ETA: Link

ETA 2: Like!

Well, it doesn't matter what happened. The question is about whether Stannis could have should have done something to prevent getting into that situation or control the damage. The question is, have we seen any hallmark of good commanding displayed by Stannis during this battle?

You can say Stannnis was overconfident and that could have clouded his judgment, and that'd make him a pretty bad commander for the battle.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

With his whole navy?? He couldn't send a few to raid around the trade route in and out of Blackwater Bay? What of of commander was he?

A few? Enough to watch a 200-mile wide opening without radar, catch the Lannister fleet in time and successfully give battle to the four strongest ships in Kings Landing, two of them the strongest ships in entire Westeros while the swiftest ship makes a run for it? That needs more than a few.

[Lummel]

I think its a little silly to insult Stannis for losing on the Blackwater, considering how much luck it took for the Lannisters to win

To my mind that is missing the point. There is no luck, there is only the will of GRRM. This is not a real event that we are discussing, although there is some attempt to talk about it as if it was a real event.

Stannis' actions are a reflection of the character GRRM created - he sees his chance, believes it is his duty to become king, believes he is fated to win and rushes forward only to bring about his own defeat.

There are elements of his strategy that are sound, elements that are risky and things that he could be criticised for. But it is precisely those elements - not attempting to replace scouts, lack of caution, lack of fear that reflect his faith in his victory. His conduct in other words tells us about his character.

[Lykos]

Kusanagi, every great commander in history, that I know of made at least one error of judgement, that doesn´t mean they flunked warfare 101. And neither did Stannis, but with my very limited knowledge I´d say Stannis is not infallible yet he is a very shrewd commander. Especially when he´s the underdog. :P (That´s why think he should have taken Salador´s advice and launched a surprise attack on KL instead of confronting Renly by sailing to Storm´s End.)