Why is Aegon not a Blackfyre

[Knight Of Winter]

I've been having some issues with popular Young Griff=Blackfyre theory, and since I've seen no recent threads about it, I thought I'd put them all here. Basically, in this essay I'll try to show why I think YG=Blackyfyre theory is unsupported by books and, as of DWD, pretty unlikely.

Official theory

As the theory goes, Blackfyres were horribly diminished fighting decades of wars for the throne, leaving behind only 2 young heirs – Varys and Serra. Varys worked his way up to becoming prince of thieves in Pentos, where he met and befriended Illyrio, then young fencing bravo. Illyrio married Varys's sister Serra and later had a son with her , while Varys went to Westeros to serve as Master of Whisperers to King Aerys. When Bob's rebellion broke out , Targs were wiped out and Bob hailed as new king, V&I saw perfect chance to put last scion of House Blackfyre upon the throne – just mask him as supposedly killed Prince Aegon and use some chance to put him on the throne at the wave of loyal Targaryen supporters. The chance presented itself after Bob's death and dynastic struggles that followed. According to plan, two other Targaryens – Viserys and Dany – were supposed to invade Westeros leading the horde of Dothraki savages. Westeros would, of course, unite under foreign attack, and the time would be ripe for Aegon (or FAegon) to invade with Golden Company and present himself as savior from savages. Westerosi, now united under Aegon, fight off Dothrakis and crown Aegon as rightful king. Since that plan failed, V&I had been looking for other opportunites to invade, until DWD when Aegon and JonCon finally had enough and decided to attack on their own.

Backstory of last Blackfyres

Let's examine for a minute what we know about Varys and Serra. Varys claims to have been born a slave in Lys, later sold to wizard in Myr and finally became thief and information broker in first Myr and later Pentos. Serra, meanwhile, was a slave from Lyseni pleasure house bought by Illyrio, who genuinely fell in love and married her.

The question here is obvious – is this truly a backstory for last BFs? How would last scions of once mighty house end up as slaves from birth? If they were born as slaves, how would they know of their BF's ancestry and why would they even care? If BF heirs truly did exist, I'd expect them to live in a safe house provided by loyal supporter. In case they had no supporters, they would have to be constantly on the run and hiding, like Viserys and Dany did. In no case I can imagine them being born as slaves.

Even if they somehow learned of their BF origins, why would they care? Varys's years as a boy have obviously been very rough, including forced castration, thievery, beatings, and prostitution, and I imagine Serra had it no easier being trained as pleasure slave in brothel. People in such position don't care about decades-long plans about usurping foreign throne, their mind is on more trivial matters – such as surviving till the next day. Basically, I'm asking why would Varys and Serra, who barely escaped worst kind of life, suddenly plan to put Serra's future son on the Westerosi throne?

Next question regards Varys and Serra and their supposed sibling connection. Based on what sentence from the books or SSM/implication/hint/logical conclusion can one assume that a)Varys and Serra are siblings and b ) Varys and Serra are Blackfyres ? As far as I know, there are none, and that's one of my biggest criticisms of YG=BF theory – that it simply assumes far to much in order to fit its intended conclusion lacking any real evidence.

Varys's and Illyrio's pyrrhic victories

Varys's and Illyrio's plan revolves around putting Blackfyre in disguise of Targ onto the Iron Throne. Even if they succeed in doing that, the fact remains that almost nobody knows who Young Griff truly is. They need to keep YG's Blackfyreness a secret, because presumably Blackyfre would gain much less support from Westerosi's lords than true Targaryen would. So, in order for their grand plan to work, noone must think YG truly is BF. Their magnum opus mustn't be revealed publicaly, but hidden secret between few. That in itself is first pyrrhic victory, one that would be enough to put off some people from the start.

The second one concens Illyrio, who literally has to give up his own son to the throne. Young Griff mustn't know Illyrio is his father (and indeed, he thinks of Rhaegar as his dad), and has to spend most of his time with another man – Jon Connington. In order to put his son on the IT, Illyrio has to „stop having“ a son, sacrifice very very few would make. If you asked parents, medieval or contemporary, would they prefer their incognito son as king or to have a son, I'm somehow certain vast majority would opt for the second option.

When Dothraki invade...

...and all the hell breaks loose, that's when savior Aegon would show to save the day and unite Westerosi under his wing in order to fight the barbaric savages. Or so the theory says.

Personally, I consider this to be weakest part of the theory, by far. For when the Dothraki invade, the realm would indeed unite – under their Baratheon king, be it Robert, Stannis or Joffrey. King on the Iron Throne can muster tens and hundreds of thousands of men under his command, while Aegon has only ten thousand men in his GC. What could possibly Aegon do fighting off the Dothraki that Robert could not have done ten times better. And if Robert is unable to repel the Dothraki, then is impossible to hope Aegon could with his much smaller army.

In fact, this part of theory is even directly contradicted by books themselves – in DWD, one of officers in Golden Company notes that they were supposed to invade Westeros along with Dothraki, not fight against them.

Riddle that is Varys

While I think we can't conclude what is Varys's ultimate motive or endgame, we can almost safely assume some things and rule other ones out. For one, he is hardly playing the game for money for he was rich in Free Cities with Illyrio. He's also hardly playing for fame, glory and personal gain – for he's taken quite a dangerous job where every shift in KL's power struggles can lead to him losing his head. He is obviously ready to indure hardships for he strongly believes in his endgame, whatever it is. And while I speculate here, that endgame is very unlikely to be to put Blackfyre on the throne. Does Varys seem like a kind of guy who places much value on bloodine and birth? Does he seem like a type of guy who would abandon relatively rich and luxurious life in FC and engage in decades of scheming just to...put someone on throne based on his birth? In my opinion – Varys simply does not give of that „vibe“. Dozens things come to my mind if I has do guess what is Varys's ultimate motive – things like death of magic, personal loyalty to Aerys (like Pycelle and Tywin) or even putting good king on the throne (which would, from quite an utilitaristic point of view, justify his „for the realm“ supposed motto and his need to commit „minor“ atrocities for the greater good) – and each one of them seems likelier than putting BF on a throne.

Other proof and tidbits

Mummer's dragon – as told by House of the Undying and Quaithe, can mean a dozens of things. Maybe it signifies Varys's (mummer's) dragon, maybe it means dragon controlled by others, and even in case it symbolizes false dragon, by no means does it mean that „false dragon“ is Blackfyre. It just means that the dragon is false, not that dragon is actually Blackfyre.

Golden's Company motive – or why would GC break a contract in order to support Aegon when we know they're sworn to put BF on throne? The possible answer is quite a pragmatical one – maybe they're tired of being mercenaries in foreign land and want to find themselves a home. Maybe their officers desire a profit from conquering Westeros – be it money, honours or land. I took Illyrio's famous quote Black or red, a dragon is still a dragon – to mean that no matter if Blackfyre or Targaryen offers them victory and profit that goes with it, they'll take it. They'll follow a dragon to Westeros, no matter its colour. GC has existed for decades, and it's likely they lost some of its original purpose and intent. I'd wager they're not as determined as Bittersteel to put BF on a throne and they simply want power and riches. It seems like a good pragmatical choice.

Not to mention that if GC truly does fight for Aegon because of his BF heritage, it means that at least officers know about that heritage, which makes Aegon's secret far less likely to remain a secret. And if everyone knows about Aegon being a BF, his invasion is less likely to succee.

And I'll add another point – does Harry Strickland truly seems like a sort of man willing to risk everything because of a principle?

Red to black to red dragon – as many took that to mean BF masquerading as Targ. As far as I recall, it's a story told by Meribald about some inn i.e. in a completely unrelated context. Mixed with other evidence, the line above could mean something, while standalone it's quite a weak basis for a theory.

Illyrio's unusual fondness of Aegon - so maybe Illyrio grew fond of Aegon during his stay at Illyrio's manse. Which is not unusual in itself – Brienne grew fond of Podrick and Lady Smallwood was quite warm towards Arya – and I'm not sure if we can assume that Illyrio's affection towards Aegon is any more than that. And even if it signifies Aegon is Illyrio's son, it does not mean Aegon is Blackfyre.

Blackfyre's importance to the story – when people assume that the reason BFs were mentioned is that they'll be somehow important to the story in present time. It's incorrect in-story, as we can pretty safely assume that other extinct houses like Reynes, Greystarks or Casterly won't be making any grand comebacks, but I also consider it incorrect „out-story“: that people see Chekov's Guns while there are in fact „only“ Red Herrings and simple worldbuilding. Really, Blackfyre Rebellion helped expand Westerosi history a lot, it provided us with lots of interesting new characters (from D&E novellas) and it explained some backstory of present-time characters (like Bloodraven or Barristan). In short, it did wonderful worldbuilding, and I think that itself is enough – it did its narrative purpose without foreshadowing future events.

Conclusion

One of problems with various YG=BF theories is that they spend great time finding proof that YG is „false“ while devoting significantly less effort to explaining why exactly is he a Blackyfre. That part, in my opinion, is mostly made of thin air and wishful thinking. I'd love to see opinions and constructive criticism on this from all angles, from supporters as well as opposers of YG=BF theory.

Literature

http://asoiaf.wester...kfyre-triangle/

http://asoiaf.wester...s-true-endgame/

http://asoiaf.wester...20#entry3802533

http://asoiaf.wester...-right-long-op/

http://asoiaf.wester...ys-and-illyrio/

[joluoto]

Well, there's no proof YG is a Blackfyre. Neither is there proof he's a Targ or anything else. YG is very much a mystery. To me it seems unlikely that the real Aegon was saved, and we have here a "False Dimitry", to borrow a term from Russian history. However what's YG's real identity is far from clear. The BF theory comes as you say from all kinds of BF references in Dance. You forgot Moqorro seeing both Red dragons and black, both new and old, whatever that means. These references might point to Aegon, but also might point to something completely different.

Another clue that some people hang onto is Steffon Barotheon's ill fated expedition to Essos to find a wife for Rhaegar. Some people think he was looking for a girl with dragon blood, since there was no Targaryen girls availiable in Westeros, and since the expedition failed Aerys decided that Rhaegar should marry Elia, since she would be the girl with most dragon blood in her veins. I'm not buying this. I'm not sure Aerys saw dragon blood as important, neither convinced that Elia Martell would have been the girl in Westeros closest related to the Targs. We still don't know the husbands of Egg's sisters. And their decendants would have a closer connection to the Targs than the Martells. I think Elia was chosen because the Martells still are Princes and Princesses, and thus not simple servants, like the Lannisters.

[Ibbison from Ibben]

YG and JonCon certainly think YG is a Targ.

I completely reject that idea, since there is no evidence to support it. Varys would have known that YG would need some sort of proof for his claims, and if Varys had time to arrange the baby switch, he would have had time to get some sort of proof.

I'm strongly convinced that the Golden Co. thinks YG is a Blackfyre. (They don't ask for proof he's a Targ, and admit they have no evidence to support his claim.)

I find the evidence supporting the claim that YG is Illyrio's son to be fairly strong, but not conclusive.

As for Serra being a Blackfyre, I'm not sure. One of the prophecies mentions "...dragons bright and dark..." We might actually be dealing with a Brightflame, a descendent of Aerion.

edited for spelling

[Lehnaru]

One of the prophecies mentions "...dragons bright and dark..." We might actually be dealing with a Brightflame, a descendent of Arion.

Okay, that would be really scary and very bad for the realm. Keep him away from the pyromancers! It was never explained what happened to Aerion's son.

[steely94]

Quoting isn't working for me unfortunately, but in reponse to OP's bit about Illyrio having to give up a son: Jaime Lannister did it. Three times over. Personally I think he's a Targ until proven otherwise, but it doesn't really matter to me.

[Fire Eater]

Knight of Winter I don't think the black to red dragon sign is a weak basis. I don't think you've ever visited the "Moments of Foreshadowing" threads to find the colossal amount of foreshadowing GRRM puts into his writing.

Varys and Serra could have been sold into slavery by the reinstated governmentt in Lys that the GC and Ninepenny Kings overthrew.

Varys's and Illyrio's pyrrhic victories

Varys's and Illyrio's plan revolves around putting Blackfyre in disguise of Targ onto the Iron Throne. Even if they succeed in doing that, the fact remains that almost nobody knows who Young Griff truly is. They need to keep YG's Blackfyreness a secret, because presumably Blackyfre would gain much less support from Westerosi's lords than true Targaryen would. So, in order for their grand plan to work, noone must think YG truly is BF. Their magnum opus mustn't be revealed publicaly, but hidden secret between few. That in itself is first pyrrhic victory, one that would be enough to put off some people from the start.

The second one concens Illyrio, who literally has to give up his own son to the throne. Young Griff mustn't know Illyrio is his father (and indeed, he thinks of Rhaegar as his dad), and has to spend most of his time with another man – Jon Connington. In order to put his son on the IT, Illyrio has to „stop having“ a son, sacrifice very very few would make. If you asked parents, medieval or contemporary, would they prefer their incognito son as king or to have a son, I'm somehow certain vast majority would opt for the second option.

Illyrio did make a sacrifice in not raising his son, remember that he is also greedy. It sounds more believable than Elia giving up her son to Varys, the story pne would go with if one doesn't believe that Aegon is a Blackfyre.

I don't think the Blackfyre theory is a red herring as the way you've used it I don't think you know the definition of a red herring, no offense. Red herrings are place clearly in the text without having to do any HW, like with Tyrion being the sent the assassin after Bran. Aegon is a Blackfyre as that was Varys and Illyrio's plan all along, to place Aegon on the IT.

Having the one to sit the IT, Aegon, just show up in ADwD out of the blue without any foreshadowing or clues is sloppy writing, something GRRM is not known for.

[Fedelede]

Quoting isn't working for me unfortunately, but in reponse to OP's bit about Illyrio having to give up a son: Jaime Lannister did it. Three times over. Personally I think he's a Targ until proven otherwise, but it doesn't really matter to me.

^

[mrunderhill]

I've been having some issues with popular Young Griff=Blackfyre theory, and since I've seen no recent threads about it, I thought I'd put them all here. Basically, in this essay I'll try to show why I think YG=Blackyfyre theory is unsupported by books and, as of DWD, pretty unlikely.

Official theory

As the theory goes, Blackfyres were horribly diminished fighting decades of wars for the throne, leaving behind only 2 young heirs – Varys and Serra. Varys worked his way up to becoming prince of thieves in Pentos, where he met and befriended Illyrio, then young fencing bravo. Illyrio married Varys's sister Serra and later had a son with her , while Varys went to Westeros to serve as Master of Whisperers to King Aerys. When Bob's rebellion broke out , Targs were wiped out and Bob hailed as new king, V&I saw perfect chance to put last scion of House Blackfyre upon the throne – just mask him as supposedly killed Prince Aegon and use some chance to put him on the throne at the wave of loyal Targaryen supporters. The chance presented itself after Bob's death and dynastic struggles that followed. According to plan, two other Targaryens – Viserys and Dany – were supposed to invade Westeros leading the horde of Dothraki savages. Westeros would, of course, unite under foreign attack, and the time would be ripe for Aegon (or FAegon) to invade with Golden Company and present himself as savior from savages. Westerosi, now united under Aegon, fight off Dothrakis and crown Aegon as rightful king. Since that plan failed, V&I had been looking for other opportunites to invade, until DWD when Aegon and JonCon finally had enough and decided to attack on their own.

Backstory of last Blackfyres

Let's examine for a minute what we know about Varys and Serra. Varys claims to have been born a slave in Lys, later sold to wizard in Myr and finally became thief and information broker in first Myr and later Pentos. Serra, meanwhile, was a slave from Lyseni pleasure house bought by Illyrio, who genuinely fell in love and married her.

The question here is obvious – is this truly a backstory for last BFs? How would last scions of once mighty house end up as slaves from birth? If they were born as slaves, how would they know of their BF's ancestry and why would they even care? If BF heirs truly did exist, I'd expect them to live in a safe house provided by loyal supporter. In case they had no supporters, they would have to be constantly on the run and hiding, like Viserys and Dany did. In no case I can imagine them being born as slaves.

Even if they somehow learned of their BF origins, why would they care? Varys's years as a boy have obviously been very rough, including forced castration, thievery, beatings, and prostitution, and I imagine Serra had it no easier being trained as pleasure slave in brothel. People in such position don't care about decades-long plans about usurping foreign throne, their mind is on more trivial matters – such as surviving till the next day. Basically, I'm asking why would Varys and Serra, who barely escaped worst kind of life, suddenly plan to put Serra's future son on the Westerosi throne?

Next question regards Varys and Serra and their supposed sibling connection. Based on what sentence from the books or SSM/implication/hint/logical conclusion can one assume that a)Varys and Serra are siblings and b ) Varys and Serra are Blackfyres ? As far as I know, there are none, and that's one of my biggest criticisms of YG=BF theory – that it simply assumes far to much in order to fit its intended conclusion lacking any real evidence.

Varys's and Illyrio's pyrrhic victories

Varys's and Illyrio's plan revolves around putting Blackfyre in disguise of Targ onto the Iron Throne. Even if they succeed in doing that, the fact remains that almost nobody knows who Young Griff truly is. They need to keep YG's Blackfyreness a secret, because presumably Blackyfre would gain much less support from Westerosi's lords than true Targaryen would. So, in order for their grand plan to work, noone must think YG truly is BF. Their magnum opus mustn't be revealed publicaly, but hidden secret between few. That in itself is first pyrrhic victory, one that would be enough to put off some people from the start.

The second one concens Illyrio, who literally has to give up his own son to the throne. Young Griff mustn't know Illyrio is his father (and indeed, he thinks of Rhaegar as his dad), and has to spend most of his time with another man – Jon Connington. In order to put his son on the IT, Illyrio has to „stop having“ a son, sacrifice very very few would make. If you asked parents, medieval or contemporary, would they prefer their incognito son as king or to have a son, I'm somehow certain vast majority would opt for the second option.

To address the first problems, look at Dany. What gives her strength is that she is the rightful princess of Westeros. All through her life she has believed this. What possiblyn gave Varys and Serra strength is the quest to reclaim their birthright. The more they suffered, the greater their determination to take back what was theirs. Varys is an incredibly driven man, to rise from a beggar to a member of the Small Council. As for Illyrio I see no problem in him giving up his son, especially for a cause his mother was passionate about. He may not get to raise his son, but he is restoring his birth right and possibly fulfilling Serra's last wish.

It is still speculation, but the motives for the characters seem fine to me.

[kkae]

Well written and in many things correct assessment of the theory and its short comings.

Here is my response.

First of all I wouldn't concentrate too much on all the exact details of this YG = BF theory. As you say a lot of it is not supported by any text but a lot of it is also unnecessary for the theory to hold. Secondly, I'm not sure if I actually believe this theory to be true but I like it very much.

You talk about the backstory of Varys and Serra and how little we know of it. They were slaves or maybe they weren't, we don't know for sure. One common thing in this theory is the fact we are talking about the female Blackfyre line. It might well be that nobody cared about the Blackfyre ladies as long there was the male line. So it could be that they somehow ended in slavery. The War of the Ninepenny Kings happened only 40 years prior of the current events. Who knows, maybe the GC got tired of the Blackfyres and kicked them out.

As you write Varys and Serra escaped the worst kind of life where and they probably weren't thinking of invading Westeros daily. However, they later rose to a position of wealth and power. People get new goals and priorities as their living conditions change. The thing that is one day a distant dream can become within grasp the next day.

Varys and Serra aren't necessarily siblings. Some think that Varys might be descendant of Bittersteel and only Serra would be Blackfyre. But as you say, there is no evidence of this. However, some kind of blood relation could be a very powerful motivator for all of this. If you are going to participate in decades long conspiracy, isn't blood or some old promises a good reason? We have some examples of this: Doran's plans and what the Manderlys have begun to do. I think it is harder to believe they are doing this for the good of realm or out of loyalty for Aerys. I think what we know of Varys speaks against of these reasons. There might be something in the anti-magic theory. Although in some ways Blackfyres could be considered anti-magic via the Bittersteel vs. Bloodraven rivalry.

Then regarding the knowledge of the true heritage of Aegon, does it really matter if they succeed to put a Blackfyre on the throne and nobody knows it? It is just a name after all, why would it matter if you know that your offspring sits on the throne. Also some think that Blackfyres are actually Targaryens as it was supposed to be when Daemon was legitimized and given the sword.

I don't think that too much weight should be put on the details of the whole Aegon/GC/Dothraki/Viserys/Dany plan. As we don't know the exact details of it. Mummer's dragon can mean anything and can be used against or for this theory. As for Golden Company's motives it might be pragmatical and they are probably paid to do this as well. I don't think they are doing this for free. I also agree that they maybe aren't big Blackfyre loyalists necessarily anymore but a dragon, red or black can offer them lands and riches in Westeros better than some nobody. IIRC "homesickness" is exactly what Arianne(?) thinks might be reason for the GC to break contract. The black dragon turning red is a nice bit of foreshadowing that was for some reason but in the books.

As for Illyrio's fondness of Aegon, yes it could mean that he just likes the boy but it could mean something else also. Illyrio says that not all is done for gain and even men like him have friends, and debts of affection to repay. Clearly there is something going on that is not done just for more money and lands. Why is an immensely rich and influential man doing this?

I think that mentioning of the Blackfyres and their importance in the Dunk & Egg tales shouldn't be overlooked. They are big part of history of Westeros and seemingly their tale is ended by the time of current events. However

I think the biggest reason to believe to the Blackfyre theory is that for now it is perhaps the best theory to explain Varys and Illyrio. A lot of is based on nothing, speculation and perhaps wishful thinking but it wouldn't be the first theory to based on little actual evidence. The theory ahs also lot of it is unnecessary filler. I think the core of the theory is that YG is Blackfyre and Illyrio and Varys are related to him by some strong bond.

In one thing you are certainly right: almost everything I wrote is not supported directly by the books.

[mrunderhill]

Riddle that is Varys

While I think we can't conclude what is Varys's ultimate motive or endgame, we can almost safely assume some things and rule other ones out. For one, he is hardly playing the game for money for he was rich in Free Cities with Illyrio. He's also hardly playing for fame, glory and personal gain – for he's taken quite a dangerous job where every shift in KL's power struggles can lead to him losing his head. He is obviously ready to indure hardships for he strongly believes in his endgame, whatever it is. And while I speculate here, that endgame is very unlikely to be to put Blackfyre on the throne. Does Varys seem like a kind of guy who places much value on bloodine and birth? Does he seem like a type of guy who would abandon relatively rich and luxurious life in FC and engage in decades of scheming just to...put someone on throne based on his birth? In my opinion – Varys simply does not give of that „vibe“. Dozens things come to my mind if I has do guess what is Varys's ultimate motive – things like death of magic, personal loyalty to Aerys (like Pycelle and Tywin) or even putting good king on the throne (which would, from quite an utilitaristic point of view, justify his „for the realm“ supposed motto and his need to commit „minor“ atrocities for the greater good) – and each one of them seems likelier than putting BF on a throne.

Other proof and tidbits

Mummer's dragon – as told by House of the Undying and Quaithe, can mean a dozens of things. Maybe it signifies Varys's (mummer's) dragon, maybe it means dragon controlled by others, and even in case it symbolizes false dragon, by no means does it mean that „false dragon“ is Blackfyre. It just means that the dragon is false, not that dragon is actually Blackfyre.

Golden's Company motive – or why would GC break a contract in order to support Aegon when we know they're sworn to put BF on throne? The possible answer is quite a pragmatical one – maybe they're tired of being mercenaries in foreign land and want to find themselves a home. Maybe their officers desire a profit from conquering Westeros – be it money, honours or land. I took Illyrio's famous quote Black or red, a dragon is still a dragon – to mean that no matter if Blackfyre or Targaryen offers them victory and profit that goes with it, they'll take it. They'll follow a dragon to Westeros, no matter its colour. GC has existed for decades, and it's likely they lost some of its original purpose and intent. I'd wager they're not as determined as Bittersteel to put BF on a throne and they simply want power and riches. It seems like a good pragmatical choice.

Not to mention that if GC truly does fight for Aegon because of his BF heritage, it means that at least officers know about that heritage, which makes Aegon's secret far less likely to remain a secret. And if everyone knows about Aegon being a BF, his invasion is less likely to succee.

And I'll add another point – does Harry Strickland truly seems like a sort of man willing to risk everything because of a principle?

Red to black to red dragon – as many took that to mean BF masquerading as Targ. As far as I recall, it's a story told by Meribald about some inn i.e. in a completely unrelated context. Mixed with other evidence, the line above could mean something, while standalone it's quite a weak basis for a theory.

Illyrio's unusual fondness of Aegon - so maybe Illyrio grew fond of Aegon during his stay at Illyrio's manse. Which is not unusual in itself – Brienne grew fond of Podrick and Lady Smallwood was quite warm towards Arya – and I'm not sure if we can assume that Illyrio's affection towards Aegon is any more than that. And even if it signifies Aegon is Illyrio's son, it does not mean Aegon is Blackfyre.

Blackfyre's importance to the story – when people assume that the reason BFs were mentioned is that they'll be somehow important to the story in present time. It's incorrect in-story, as we can pretty safely assume that other extinct houses like Reynes, Greystarks or Casterly won't be making any grand comebacks, but I also consider it incorrect „out-story“: that people see Chekov's Guns while there are in fact „only“ Red Herrings and simple worldbuilding. Really, Blackfyre Rebellion helped expand Westerosi history a lot, it provided us with lots of interesting new characters (from D&E novellas) and it explained some backstory of present-time characters (like Bloodraven or Barristan). In short, it did wonderful worldbuilding, and I think that itself is enough – it did its narrative purpose without foreshadowing future events.

Conclusion

One of problems with various YG=BF theories is that they spend great time finding proof that YG is „false“ while devoting significantly less effort to explaining why exactly is he a Blackyfre. That part, in my opinion, is mostly made of thin air and wishful thinking. I'd love to see opinions and constructive criticism on this from all angles, from supporters as well as opposers of YG=BF theory.

I think you have a valid point about Varys, but not about the gold company. They are the best mercenary company in Essos, they never break a contract, but they finally broke one, because some things are written in "blood." Even now they carry the head of Bittersteel wherever they go and oddly enough, Jon Connington notes that Bittersteel is smiling. I don't see the company doing all this just for practical reasons. For a 100 years they have desired nothing more than to place a Blackfyre on the Iron Throne.

As for the plan with the Dothraki, we do not know what Varys had in mind. It is possible he planned for Dany and Aegon to marry, or Viserys to die and lead the Dothraki not oppose them.

[Frey family reunion]

Yes, the Varys Serra are Blackfyres is complete speculation. It also may be unnecessary speculation. At least in so far as Varys is concerned I don't think the Blackfyre conspiracy hinges on the fact that Varys is a Blackfyre. I'm not even sure it hinges on Sera being a Blackfyre.

I think what is important is that Varys and Illyrio have gotten their hands on someone that the Golden Company at least believes is a Blackfyre descendant. I also believe that one other important party is also convinced of this.

I think what is missing from the commonly held Blackfyre theory is the fact that I believe that Dorne has been part of this conspiracy from the beginning. One day I'll get around to putting up a thread providing the support for the textual support for this theory. But basically under Dornish law the eldest child is the rightful heir (not the eldest son). Under their beliefs, Daena the defiant's line is the rightful heirs for the IT. So there may be two parties, Dorne and the Golden Company that would support a Blackfyre descendant.

Dorne's help would be necessary under the Blackfyre theory for two reasons: 1) the military strength added to the Golden Company who happen to be troops that would not be considered foreign invaders, and 2) Doran could help Illyrio and Varys perpetuate the fiction that Young Griff is Rhaegar and Ellia's son.

I think Varys' motivation lies in the fact that he would be the power behind the throne under the theory that he would be able to control Young Griff

[sertravisredbeard]

Wasn't Dorne very supportive of the Targs during the Blackfyre Rebellions though? One of the reason we're given for the Blackfyre supporters rebelling is the increasing "Dornish influence" of Daeron II's court. Maybe one hundred years later Doran could decide that Daena the Defiant's line should be in control of the throne but I doubt it would be for the reason of Dorne's female primogeniture policies.

[Frey family reunion]

Wasn't Dorne very supportive of the Targs during the Blackfyre Rebellions though? One of the reason we're given for the Blackfyre supporters rebelling is the increasing "Dornish influence" of Daeron II's court. Maybe one hundred years later Doran could decide that Daena the Defiant's line should be in control of the throne but I doubt it would be for the reason of Dorne's female primogeniture policies.

Yes, they supported the Targs probably because of the marriage pact between Daeron and Myriah Martell, and later between Daenerys and Maron Martell. Ironically it was the later marriage that probably sparked the rebellion. I think the prime reason that Doran would support a Blackfyre, is probably because unlike Viserion who was treated as a joke, Young Griff actually obtained the support of the Golden Company. The way Doran can justify the alliance to his bannermen, is through Dorne's beliefs on heredity.

[joluoto]

Yes, they supported the Targs probably because of the marriage pact between Daeron and Myriah Martell, and later between Daenerys and Maron Martell. Ironically it was the later marriage that probably sparked the rebellion. I think the prime reason that Doran would support a Blackfyre, is probably because unlike Viserion who was treated as a joke, Young Griff actually obtained the support of the Golden Company. The way Doran can justify the alliance to his bannermen, is through Dorne's beliefs on heredity.

Or Dorne just believe he's the real Aegon, which makes him Doran's nephew and Arianne's cousin. You know, they don't have to be told the truth. Varys would make sure they don't find out.

[KleZ]

You have the Varys and Kevan conversation at the end of ADWD.. why lie to a dead man?

[Knight Of Winter]

Thanks for replies all.

Quoting isn't working for me unfortunately, but in reponse to OP's bit about Illyrio having to give up a son: Jaime Lannister did it. Three times over. Personally I think he's a Targ until proven otherwise, but it doesn't really matter to me.

True, but Jaime hardly had a choice in the matter. If he revealed who are truly J&M&T's parents, they would be executed along with him and his sister. On the other hand, nobody forced Illyrio into this scheme.

To address the first problems, look at Dany. What gives her strength is that she is the rightful princess of Westeros. All through her life she has believed this. What possiblyn gave Varys and Serra strength is the quest to reclaim their birthright. The more they suffered, the greater their determination to take back what was theirs. Varys is an incredibly driven man, to rise from a beggar to a member of the Small Council. As for Illyrio I see no problem in him giving up his son, especially for a cause his mother was passionate about. He may not get to raise his son, but he is restoring his birth right and possibly fulfilling Serra's last wish.

It is still speculation, but the motives for the characters seem fine to me.

If they were indeed born in slavery, than, I believe, Iron Throne should mean little and less to them. And I don't think Dany analogy stands here - for she had Viserys to reinforce all her beliefs 24/7, and despite 13 years of said reinforcing, at the beginning of AGOT, she wanted nothing to do with Westeros; all she wished was house with red door with lemon tree in Braavos.

Knight of Winter I don't think the black to red dragon sign is a weak basis. I don't think you've ever visited the "Moments of Foreshadowing" threads to find the colossal amount of foreshadowing GRRM puts into his writing.

Varys and Serra could have been sold into slavery by the reinstated governmentt in Lys that the GC and Ninepenny Kings overthrew.

Illyrio did make a sacrifice in not raising his son, remember that he is also greedy. It sounds more believable than Elia giving up her son to Varys, the story you would go with if you don't believe that Aegon is a Blackfyre.

I don't think the Blackfyre theory is a red herring as the way you've used it I don't think you know the definition of a red herring. Aegon is a Blackfyre as that was Varys and Illyrio's plan all along, to place Aegon on the IT.

Having the one to sit the IT, Aegon, just show up in ADwD out of the blue without any foreshadowing or clues is sloppy writing, something GRRM is not known for.

The OP brings to mind a quote from Hemingway:

"Because thou art a miracle of deafness.... It is not that thou art stupid. Thou art simply deaf. One who is deaf cannot hear music. Neither can he hear the radio. So he might say, never having heard them, that such things do not exist."

Let's stop with condescending tone for a bit, shall we? I did read "Moments of foreshadowing" threads, and to my knowledge - red herring is clue that points in wrong direction.

The thing about foreshadowing (and yes, Martin uses it quite a lot and well), is that it needs "normal", "usual" non-foreshadowing to shine through. You know a painting is piece of art because you saw 50 other picture of lesser value. You can only conclude meal is excellent because you tasted hundreds of meals before and know the difference between average one and great one. Likewise, in order for one "foreshadowed" character to work (Alleras), you need dozens of "non-foreshadowed" among them (Obara, Arianne, Tyene, Nym, Armen, Leo Tyrell...).

What I'm saying is that some people see foreshadowing where there simply isn't one - because simply every sentence cannot foreshadow something. I'll quote another famous quote here: Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar

And when have I said in the OP that I subscribe to theory that Aegon is real? I actaully think it's most likely he's some random kid with Valyrian features given to JonCon to raise as good kind Aegon. I just have problems with the theory he is a Blackfyre.

Well written and in many things correct assessment of the theory and its short comings.

Here is my response.

First of all I wouldn't concentrate too much on all the exact details of this YG = BF theory. As you say a lot of it is not supported by any text but a lot of it is also unnecessary for the theory to hold. Secondly, I'm not sure if I actually believe this theory to be true but I like it very much.

You talk about the backstory of Varys and Serra and how little we know of it. They were slaves or maybe they weren't, we don't know for sure. One common thing in this theory is the fact we are talking about the female Blackfyre line. It might well be that nobody cared about the Blackfyre ladies as long there was the male line. So it could be that they somehow ended in slavery. The War of the Ninepenny Kings happened only 40 years prior of the current events. Who knows, maybe the GC got tired of the Blackfyres and kicked them out.

As you write Varys and Serra escaped the worst kind of life where and they probably weren't thinking of invading Westeros daily. However, they later rose to a position of wealth and power. People get new goals and priorities as their living conditions change. The thing that is one day a distant dream can become within grasp the next day.

Varys and Serra aren't necessarily siblings. Some think that Varys might be descendant of Bittersteel and only Serra would be Blackfyre. But as you say, there is no evidence of this. However, some kind of blood relation could be a very powerful motivator for all of this. If you are going to participate in decades long conspiracy, isn't blood or some old promises a good reason? We have some examples of this: Doran's plans and what the Manderlys have begun to do. I think it is harder to believe they are doing this for the good of realm or out of loyalty for Aerys. I think what we know of Varys speaks against of these reasons. There might be something in the anti-magic theory. Although in some ways Blackfyres could be considered anti-magic via the Bittersteel vs. Bloodraven rivalry.

Then regarding the knowledge of the true heritage of Aegon, does it really matter if they succeed to put a Blackfyre on the throne and nobody knows it? It is just a name after all, why would it matter if you know that your offspring sits on the throne. Also some think that Blackfyres are actually Targaryens as it was supposed to be when Daemon was legitimized and given the sword.

I don't think that too much weight should be put on the details of the whole Aegon/GC/Dothraki/Viserys/Dany plan. As we don't know the exact details of it. Mummer's dragon can mean anything and can be used against or for this theory. As for Golden Company's motives it might be pragmatical and they are probably paid to do this as well. I don't think they are doing this for free. I also agree that they maybe aren't big Blackfyre loyalists necessarily anymore but a dragon, red or black can offer them lands and riches in Westeros better than some nobody. IIRC "homesickness" is exactly what Arianne(?) thinks might be reason for the GC to break contract. The black dragon turning red is a nice bit of foreshadowing that was for some reason but in the books.

As for Illyrio's fondness of Aegon, yes it could mean that he just likes the boy but it could mean something else also. Illyrio says that not all is done for gain and even men like him have friends, and debts of affection to repay. Clearly there is something going on that is not done just for more money and lands. Why is an immensely rich and influential man doing this?

I think that mentioning of the Blackfyres and their importance in the Dunk & Egg tales shouldn't be overlooked. They are big part of history of Westeros and seemingly their tale is ended by the time of current events. However

I think the biggest reason to believe to the Blackfyre theory is that for now it is perhaps the best theory to explain Varys and Illyrio. A lot of is based on nothing, speculation and perhaps wishful thinking but it wouldn't be the first theory to based on little actual evidence. The theory ahs also lot of it is unnecessary filler. I think the core of the theory is that YG is Blackfyre and Illyrio and Varys are related to him by some strong bond.

In one thing you are certainly right: almost everything I wrote is not supported directly by the books.

Nice analysis.

As I see it, there are lots of things in the series that could be explained in one way or another, and YG=BF theory needs all of them to "click", sometimes against all probability.

I've seen other theories that rely on lot on assumption (like this: http://asoiaf.wester...spiracy-theory/), and that's fine and well, so long as characters (according to theory) behave logically and in-character. I think this is where YG=BF theory falls down, as it, IMO, requires many characters to behave like they would not usually do.

Yes, the Varys Serra are Blackfyres is complete speculation. It also may be unnecessary speculation. At least in so far as Varys is concerned I don't think the Blackfyre conspiracy hinges on the fact that Varys is a Blackfyre. I'm not even sure it hinges on Sera being a Blackfyre.

I think what is important is that Varys and Illyrio have gotten their hands on someone that the Golden Company at least believes is a Blackfyre descendant. I also believe that one other important party is also convinced of this.

I think what is missing from the commonly held Blackfyre theory is the fact that I believe that Dorne has been part of this conspiracy from the beginning. One day I'll get around to putting up a thread providing the support for the textual support for this theory. But basically under Dornish law the eldest child is the rightful heir (not the eldest son). Under their beliefs, Daena the defiant's line is the rightful heirs for the IT. So there may be two parties, Dorne and the Golden Company that would support a Blackfyre descendant.

Dorne's help would be necessary under the Blackfyre theory for two reasons: 1) the military strength added to the Golden Company who happen to be troops that would not be considered foreign invaders, and 2) Doran could help Illyrio and Varys perpetuate the fiction that Young Griff is Rhaegar and Ellia's son.

I think Varys' motivation lies in the fact that he would be the power behind the throne under the theory that he would be able to control Young Griff

Under Dorne's law eldest child interhits, that's for sure. And Daemon Blackfyre (eldest of BFs) is way younger than his brother Daeron II (who BF fought war against), so I don't see how would Dorne support BF based on that piece of evidence.

[Frey family reunion]

Under Dorne's law eldest child interhits, that's for sure. And Daemon Blackfyre (eldest of BFs) is way younger than his brother Daeron II (who BF fought war against), so I don't see how would Dorne support BF based on that piece of evidence.

You have to go back one more generation. Daena the defiant was the eldest daughter of Aegon III. Her two brothers, Baelor the Blessed and Daeron I died without heirs. Her only child (as far as we know) was Daemon Blackfyre. When he was legitimized, under Dorne law he should have been the rightful king, not Daeron who was the child of Aegon IV, a cousin of Baelor the blessed and Daeron the young dragon.

[Frey family reunion]

Or Dorne just believe he's the real Aegon, which makes him Doran's nephew and Arianne's cousin. You know, they don't have to be told the truth. Varys would make sure they don't find out.

While that's a possibility, I doubt Doran would take Varys word on that on the switched baby theory. But the Dorne alliance works whether Aegon is actually Ellia's son, or whether he is a Blackfyre descendant.

[MRHD]

You have to go back one more generation. Daena the defiant was the eldest daughter of Aegon III. Her two brothers, Baelor the Blessed and Daeron I died without heirs. Her only child (as far as we know) was Daemon Blackfyre. When he was legitimized, under Dorne law he should have been the rightful king, not Daeron who was the child of Aegon IV, a cousin of Baelor the blessed and Daeron the young dragon.

As a pratical matter for Dorne though, Targaryen claims stemming from Daeron II are more appealing, as he was married to a Martell and thus his descendants have a blood tie to House Martell. For this reason, I can't see Martells as Blackfyre supporters when Daeron II's children were half Martell.

[Frey family reunion]

As a pratical matter for Dorne though, Targaryen claims stemming from Daeron II are more appealing, as he was married to a Martell and thus his descendants have a blood tie to House Martell. For this reason, I can't see Martells as Blackfyre supporters when Daeron II's children were half Martell.

This is why they didn't support Daemon Blackfyre during the rebellion. But practically speaking, Doran would support "Aegon" because he obtained something that Viserys could not, an army of his own. My guess is Aerys and Rhaegar also probably left a pretty bad taste in Dornan's mouth regarding the Targaryens. Aerys basically held Ellia and her children hostage in the Red Keep during the rebellion, because he was afraid Dorne would support Robert's cause. Rhaegar, in a very public setting crowned Lyanna after the Harrenhal tournament as opposed to his wife Elia. But, Doran still needs to be able to justify supporting "Aegon" both for himself and for his bannerman, if it was "Aegon"'s identity as a Blackfyre is ever made known. Dornish law gives him this justification because he can argue in good conscience that the Blackfyre line is actually the rightful claimant to the Iron Throne.