What is the textual reasoning behind Aegon VI being fake?

[The Angels' Prophet]

So, I get it on a technicality. Why would someone who appears in the fifth book out of (hopefully) seven become King of Westeros when we have had contenders for the throne since books 1-2 (Stannis, Dany, etc)? But where is the textual evidence to support this? And I understand how people may think he is a Blackfyre, but how could that have happened? What is the theory here? I'm not doubting anything or anyone, I'm just curious, that's all.

[GREYJOY4LYFE]

Beware the mummer's dragon.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

1. The mummer's dragon prophecy is probably the biggest.

2. The dragon sign on the Quiet Isle. Washed out black, came back red. Symbolic of a Blackfyre leaving Westeros and coming back as a Targaryen.

3. Illyrio's overly cozy attitude toward Aegon — the clothes, knowing his favorite candy, the way he talks about him.

4. The Golden Company, originally Blackfyre loyalists, have never, ever broken a contract, but they break one for Aegon.

5. The Blackfyre hints in general in the story and in the D&E novels. Backstory that logical says will show up somewhere or it wouldn't be included.

6. The fact that Varys's swap story reeks. Knowing beforehand that the baby would be unrecognizable, being able to find a Targ lookalike in Pisswater, Elia being with a non-Aegon baby but not with her actual daughter, not smuggling out both kids, not just smuggling them out and forgoing a switch.

There are threads and posts with much, much more detail than this, but it's a basic rundown. The dragon sign in particular, considering that Feast and Dance were once the same book, is extremely compelling.

[thecryptile]

For me, the Blackfyre theory gets it's traction from "Chekhov's gun"- why even mention the Blackfyres if they are all dead and aren't going to do anything?

[Pinkie Baelish]

There are numerous threads discussing the legitimacy of Aegon. I can't find them right now, but if you look for them, you should be able to find them. Some of them have evidence, that while isn't concrete, makes a whole lot of sense.

Examples:

-the mummer's dragon in the HoTU prophecy. While this can mean that he is Varys' man, it can also mean that like a mummer's dragon, he's essentially only a dragon in paper i.e. not the real thing

-Varys' "power is a trick" monologue. This essentially outlines his beliefs that the mere illusion of power is necessary. And a fake Aegon can be seen as maintaining the illusion of power

-in the epilogue of ADWD, Varys doesn't refer to him as a Targaryen once. He just states that Aegon is alive. What reason does he have for not confirming Aegon's legitimacy to a dying man?

-"black or red, a dragon is a dragon" - Illyrio

-The story about the black wooden dragon being chopped up and cast into the sea, eventually washing ashore on the Quiet Isle, now red from rust. Could be foreshadowing a Blackfyre emerging from across the Narrow Sea, now posing as a Targaryen.

[Sevumar]

This isn't a case where there's much obvious textual evidence in either direction. Even the best pieces of evidence here are circumstantial. The key to this is whether you believe that it is more likely that Aegon survived his attempted murder without raising suspicion and managed to escape to the Free Cities in the hands of Illyrio and Varys.

I find it pretty unlikely for everything to have lined up in a way that allowed for the real Aegon to escape. We're given an explanation for how this might have occurred in the story, but not enough evidence to evaluate whether or not it's true.

• Through Dany's PoV, we get warnings about a mummer's dragon figure, someone Dany seems to be being setup to oppose. The best match at the moment seems to be Aegon.
  
• There's a decent amount of mentions of the Blackfyres and their history in the story to make us wonder about a connection. Aegon is the best candidate for a Blackfyre player in the Game of Thrones.
  

[redviper9]

1. The mummer's dragon prophecy is probably the biggest.

2. The dragon sign on the Quiet Isle. Washed out black, came back red. Symbolic of a Blackfyre leaving Westeros and coming back as a Targaryen.

3. Illyrio's overly cozy attitude toward Aegon — the clothes, knowing his favorite candy, the way he talks about him.

4. The Golden Company, originally Blackfyre loyalists, have never, ever broken a contract, but they break one for Aegon.

5. The Blackfyre hints in general in the story and in the D&E novels. Backstory that logical says will show up somewhere or it wouldn't be included.

6. The fact that Varys's swap story reeks. Knowing beforehand that the baby would be unrecognizable, being able to find a Targ lookalike in Pisswater, Elia being with a non-Aegon baby but not with her actual daughter, not smuggling out both kids, not just smuggling them out and forgoing a switch.

There are threads and posts with much, much more detail than this, but it's a basic rundown. The dragon sign in particular, considering that Feast and Dance were once the same book, is extremely compelling.

Pretty much this.

For me, the clincher is the Golden Company breaking their contract and throwing their lot in with Aegon. I think it's also quite telling that the senior officers already knew about Young Griff's alleged true identity before they met up with JonCon.

[Faint]

Adding to Apple Martini's post above:

• The children's clothes Tyrion wears while staying with Illyrio;
  
• The statue of Illyrio in the garden;
  
• Illyrio's mysterious motivations;
  
• The locket with Serra's picture;
  
• The gifts Illyrio gives to Aegon;
  
• The fact that Varys shaves his head bald;
  
• The fact that Varys is a eunuch;
  
• The Blackfyre male line is ended;
  
• The way Viserys and Daenerys are treated by Illyrio;
  
• Varys' strange series of actions since he's arrived in Westeros (i.e., if he is a Blackfyre, or Blackfyre sympathizer, they all make sense).
  

There is even more than this, but that's enough to go on for now.

[Littlefingers In The Air]

Well I learned a lot

[The Angels' Prophet]

Hmm, yeah, the HoTU visions and the dragon sign on the Isle seem pretty compelling, now that I think on it. But it almost seems too obvious, now that I am thinking on it. Combined with the common knowledge of the technicality of writing, and the textual evidence, I mean. But how do people think it happened? Do they think that some of Aegon's forefathers were smuggled away after the rebellion? And that, however many years later, Varys and Illyrio managed to find out about it? I tried finding past threads, but the search engine isn't working for me...

Adding to Apple Martini's post above:

• The children's clothes Tyrion wears while staying with Illyrio;
  
• The statue of Illyrio in the garden;
  
• Illyrio's mysterious motivations;
  
• The locket with Serra's picture;
  
• The gifts Illyrio gives to Aegon;
  
• The fact that Varys shaves his head bald;
  
• The fact that Varys is a eunuch;
  
• The Blackfyre male line is ended;
  
• The way Viserys and Daenerys are treated by Illyrio;
  
• Varys' strange series of actions since he's arrived in Westeros (i.e., if he is a Blackfyre, or Blackfyre sympathizer, they all make sense).
  

There is even more than this, but that's enough to go on for now.

Woah, woah woah, Varys is a Blackfyre? Where do people get that from?

Wow, I feel like someone really slow on the uptake here. Like someone who just realized R+L=J...

[Littlefingers In The Air]

Hmm, yeah, the HoTU visions and the dragon sign on the Isle seem pretty compelling, now that I think on it. But it almost seems too obvious, now that I am thinking on it. Combined with the common knowledge of the technicality of writing, and the textual evidence, I mean. But how do people think it happened? Do they think that some of Aegon's forefathers were smuggled away after the rebellion? And that, however many years later, Varys and Illyrio managed to find out about it? I tried finding past threads, but the search engine isn't working for me...

google is your friend:

[redviper9]

Hmm, yeah, the HoTU visions and the dragon sign on the Isle seem pretty compelling, now that I think on it. But it almost seems too obvious, now that I am thinking on it. Combined with the common knowledge of the technicality of writing, and the textual evidence, I mean. But how do people think it happened? Do they think that some of Aegon's forefathers were smuggled away after the rebellion? And that, however many years later, Varys and Illyrio managed to find out about it? I tried finding past threads, but the search engine isn't working for me...

All of the Blackfyres have lived in Essos since Daeron II and Bloodraven put down Daemon's rebellion. The last known male Blackfyre was Maelys the Monstrous, who was slain by a young Barristan Selmy during the War of the Ninepenny Kings.

One of the centerpieces of the "Aegon is a Blackfyre" theory is that there were still female Blackfyre's after Maelys's death. One of these Blackfyre women was Serra, Illyrio's beloved wife; thus, Aegon is a Blackfyre through his mother.

ETA: Ninja'd by Littlefinger Baelish with the link.

[The Angels' Prophet]

google is your friend: http://asoiaf.wester...-aegon-vi-fake/

Ah yes, the amazingness of google. Thank you! :bowdown: This theory has just really been confusing me :dunno:.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Hmm, yeah, the HoTU visions and the dragon sign on the Isle seem pretty compelling, now that I think on it. But it almost seems too obvious, now that I am thinking on it. Combined with the common knowledge of the technicality of writing, and the textual evidence, I mean. But how do people think it happened? Do they think that some of Aegon's forefathers were smuggled away after the rebellion? And that, however many years later, Varys and Illyrio managed to find out about it? I tried finding past threads, but the search engine isn't working for me...

Your first mistake is thinking that any of this is "obvious" to the vast majority of readers. It can't have been that obvious to you or you would've noticed it on your own without being told.

Collecting input from dozens of people, nearly all of whom pay a scary amount of attention to the material, and tossing it around in an echo chamber for months or years on end does not make anything "obvious."

[Faint]

Woah, woah woah, Varys is a Blackfyre? Where do people get that from?

Some even speculate that he is the brother of Serra and that the real reason he was made a eunuch was so as to stop the spread of the Blackfyre line.

[The Angels' Prophet]

Your first mistake is thinking that any of this is "obvious" to the vast majority of readers. It can't have been that obvious to you or you would've noticed it on your own without being told.

Collecting input from dozens of people, nearly all of whom pay a scary amount of attention to the material, and tossing it around in an echo chamber for months or years on end does not make anything "obvious."

I mean when you look at it in context having so much evidence towards it. Too much evidence is almost the same as too little evidence. I mean, there are people who don't believe R+L=J simply because of the mountain of evidence. But, I think you're right on the fact that it is more the 5-10% of readers who read WAY too much into things, and then share what they have realised with others, then the others begin to believe it.

[Ser Creighton]

Well I learned a lot

Seriously? I think your just saying that, which I am totally fine with.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I mean when you look at it in context having so much evidence towards it. Too much evidence is almost the same as too little evidence. I mean, there are people who don't believe R+L=J simply because of the mountain of evidence. But, I think you're right on the fact that it is more the 5-10% of readers who read WAY too much into things, and then share what they have realised with others.

"When you look at it in context." Meaning, when you compile a bunch of clues that are spread across multiple books and hundreds of pages, the evidence appears obvious. AFTER you put it all together and analyze the crap out of it. That is not the same as it being "obvious" to a normal reader who's not reading any sort of extra analysis.

"Too much evidence" in GRRM terms is, "Something said outright." "Aegon is real." "Dany is AA." "Tyrion is the valonqar." etc.

[The Angels' Prophet]

Thank you, guys. Your knowledge was very helpful, as was the link. ;)

[Littlefingers In The Air]

Pretty much other nerds paved the way so nerds like me could come and read well thought out theories without having to analyze too much. That's pretty much my perception of this community.