I suspect the Lannisters are broke

[MakeTheFreysPay]

I am starting to suspect that the Lannisters are no longer the super-wealthy family that everyone thinks they are. I have observed a few things in the books which leads me to believe that they might in fact be revealed to be broke. The reasons I have to suspect this:

- Tywin likes to spend big to give off the impression of Lannister wealth, e.g. granting Tyrion as much coin as he desires despite how little he thinks of him, and, more pertinently, the Joffrey/Margaery wedding

- Interestingly though, he refuses to pay for the Joff/Marg wedding. More on that in a bit...

- When the Greyjoys attacked Lannisport before AGOT, they would have hurt the Lannister's economically by making the port less-usable and less-desirable - and, geographically, it was not well positioned to be a great place for trade anyway.

- Furthermore, from the poor state of the Westerlings, we get the impression that the Westerlands is not, in general, some resource-rich, agriculturally-booming area like, say, The Vale, where the economy is well-rounded and thriving. Instead, we come to conclude...

- That the Lannister wealth comes from mining gold to directly put money in their coffers

- BUT in ACoK, when Robb sacks the Westerlands he attacks the gold mines and puts them out of action, ending the flow of money into Lannister wallets

- Interestingly, Tywin, upon realizing this, rushes west, despite this leaving the way to attack King's Landing open to the remaining Tully/Bolton forces

- It is AFTER this that the Joff/Marg wedding is to take place, and Tywin refuses to pay a dime or relieve the Crown's debt to the Lannisters (their lending another form of Tywin giving off the impression of Lannister wealth).

- Tywin harasses Tyrion to find all the coin he can, desperate that knowing if the Lannisters have no coin, no inflow of coin and the Crown is too bankrupt to repay the Lannister debts, then his bluff will be called and the Lannisters will be bankrupt themselves

- With all the "Lannisters always pay their debts" talk, and Tyrion promising the Second Sons all of the wealth they could want from the safes in Casterly Rock, would it not be a great twist for Tyrion to open the safes and find out that they are broke?

- That, yet again, Tywin, the whoring hypocrite, was not what his reputation would say; he could not "sh*t gold", and this supposedly great leader had lead his house to economic ruin

A looooooot of speculation here, but I just feel like it would fit in with the story. Thoughts?

[Mad Monkey]

Not really. While defending the Crown is pretty expensive, the Lannisters are still fairly wealthy. Kevan Lannister was seriously contemplating just paying off the Crown's debt to the Iron Bank out of pocket; he wasn't happy about the idea but he didn't doubt that he could do it if I remember correctly. It's not like Kevan to be delusional about the state of his affairs; if the Lannisters were literally broke, he would know about it.

[MakeTheFreysPay]

Not really. While defending the Crown is pretty expensive, the Lannisters are still fairly wealthy. Kevan Lannister was seriously contemplating just paying off the Crown's debt to the Iron Bank out of pocket; he wasn't happy about the idea but he didn't doubt that he could do it if I remember correctly. It's not like Kevan to be delusional about the state of his affairs; if the Lannisters were literally broke, he would know about it.

When does he say/think that?

[Sansa_Stark]

When does he say/think that?

Epilogue of ADWD

[PrinceHenryris]

They might be broken, but I doubt they're broke. Their problem is that instead of Tywin, Kevan, and Tyrion leading their House, they're left with Cersei, whatever Jaime's become, Lancel, and Tommen, who's idea of important legislation is outlawing beets.

Unless the gold mines have played out, the Lannisters should still have money, there's just a huge leadership vacuum.

As for the Westerlings being in bad shape financially, how is that different from the Waynwoods? Second-tier houses can find themselves sideways no matter what the status of their lords.

[Petyr Patter]

When does he say/think that?

The only time Kevan has a POV, the epilogue of A Dance with Dragons.

I like the theory as another way to demonstrate how hollow Tywin Lannister's image of power, honor, and wealth really was.

However, this is the House that loaned the Crown 3,000,000 gold dragons. A house that is low on money, does not loan it out to a regime with a spiraling debt problem. Tywin also quickly put together a large army and hired some mercenaries so Lannisters wouldn't have do some "foraging" when Tyrion was arrested. I think Tywin's miserliness is better explained by his own father's failure to collect debts which led to his weakened image. Let one debtor off just because he's a king, and pretty soon all the lords and knights will be expecting "extensions!"

[Mad Monkey]

"Sellswords fight for coin," declared Grand Maester Pycelle. "With enough gold, we might persuade the Golden Company to hand over Lord Connington and the pretender."

"Aye, if we had gold," Ser Harys Swyft said. "Alas, my lords, our vaults contain only rats and roaches. I have written again to the Myrish bankers. If they will agree to make good the crown's debt to the Braavosi and extend us a new loan, mayhaps we will n ot have to raise the taxes. Elsewise--,"

"The magisters of Pentos hae been known to lend money as well," said Ser Kevan. "Try them." The Pentoshi were even less like to be of help than the Myrish money changers, but the effort must be made. Unless a new source of coinc ould be found, or the Iron Bank persuaded to relent, he would have no choice but to pay the crown's debts with Lannister gold.

Basically, Kevan would prefer to refinance the debt to Braavos with a loan from Myr or Pentos, but if he can't then he could pay it off. Of course, now that he's dead Cersei might decide to simply invade Braavos and burn the Iron Bank to the ground instead.

[Old-Growth]

Basically, Kevan would prefer to refinance the debt to Braavos with a loan from Myr or Pentos, but if he can't then he could pay it off. Of course, now that he's dead Cersei might decide to simply invade Braavos and burn the Iron Bank to the ground instead.

With what forces exactly? Paxter's fleet will be significantly reduced by the battle with the Iron men and may well end up penned up in Old Town harbor. Go back and reread the chapter in Feast wherein Arya arrives in Braavos to see just how formidable the defenses there are.

[Mad Monkey]

You're right, logic and practicality are usually major concerns for Cersei "the Lion" Lannister.

[Pootie Tang]

With what forces exactly? Paxter's fleet will be significantly reduced by the battle with the Iron men and may well end up penned up in Old Town harbor. Go back and reread the chapter in Feast wherein Arya arrives in Braavos to see just how formidable the defenses there are.

Forces, Schmorces.

[The Prince of Ice]

With what forces exactly? Paxter's fleet will be significantly reduced by the battle with the Iron men and may well end up penned up in Old Town harbor. Go back and reread the chapter in Feast wherein Arya arrives in Braavos to see just how formidable the defenses there are.

I agree with this, Westeros would be quite foolish to invade Braavos especially with the economic state of the crown at the moment.

[MakeTheFreysPay]

Okay, so Kevan THINKS that they have the wealth to pay back the Iron Bank - could he have not been deceived by Tywin as well?

My point is, in peacetime, with their constant inflow of cash from the gold mines, Tywin might have been spending/lending it all to give off the impression of Lannister riches and power, while saving none. With the mines down and the cash inflow no longer there, it could be that the expenses of running a house/region, particularly during a war, quickly piled up, and even their credit with the (bankrupt) Crown couldn't stop them from becoming broke themselves.

That's a practical financial explanation for why it COULD have happened; the reason I suspect that it HAS happened is that it would be a classic GRRM twist, somewhat foreshadowed by Tywin's hypocritical public image and the universal, utter belief (and in the case of Tywin's children, utter confidence) that the Lannisters are essentially endless in their wealth.

[Ser Areo Mace]

I believe he was making a joke guys. Though, I wouldn't put it pass Cersei to do something that stupid.

I don't believe Robb took control of all the gold mines, only three of them.

[joluoto]

It's their own fault really. They shouldn't always pay their debts.

[MoscQuetier]

everyone knows I don't like the Lannisters, but nopes, Kevan wanted to pay the debts from the crown with lannister gold, and cersei sugested something similar... yeah no. they are rich.

[Nyrhex]

Might I add that the Lannisters never bothered to rebuild thier war fleet after the Greyjoy rebellion (convinient way to lose a money sink that is a war fleet, having it all in port and "oh my, those bastards burned our fleet! A shame"....)., and they hired the cheapest sellswords possible? Considering that most of thier wealth comes from thier mines, and that GRRM did not ignore the fact that mines can stop providing, it is very possible that Tywin is putting up a show of force with loans and what little wealth he still has.

And Kevan might not yet know the real situation of the gold reserves he has, if he has not yet been to CR after Tywin's death...

[Slurms McKenzie]

I personally like the idea. It may not be right, but I would like to see it included.

[mrunderhill]

Might I add that the Lannisters never bothered to rebuild thier war fleet after the Greyjoy rebellion (convinient way to lose a money sink that is a war fleet, having it all in port and "oh my, those bastards burned our fleet! A shame"....)., and they hired the cheapest sellswords possible? Considering that most of thier wealth comes from thier mines, and that GRRM did not ignore the fact that mines can stop providing, it is very possible that Tywin is putting up a show of force with loans and what little wealth he still has.

And Kevan might not yet know the real situation of the gold reserves he has, if he has not yet been to CR after Tywin's death...

They did rebuild the fleet and probably improved defense even further. People like to call Balon stupid, but he seemed to have good reason not to attack Lannisport and the West. Even Euron went down to the Reach instead of attacking the near Westerlands.

[Nyrhex]

They did rebuild the fleet and probably improved defense even further. People like to call Balon stupid, but he seemed to have good reason not to attack Lannisport and the West. Even Euron went down to the Reach instead of attacking the near Westerlands.

Where do we hear they rebuilt the fleet?

And Balon is stupid. He just didn't want to siege CR, or help the people that took his son. Yet he thought that raiders could just hold off the Northern army for ever while lesser forces could just go and siege one castel at a time without the North being able to muster more men in the mean time.

Euron thinks that sending his brother off for several months will bring him dragons in time, and in the mean time he took a few islands and raided upriver. No sieges, no battles, just raiding while his enemies raised yet another atmy, and brought a massive war fleet against him.

[Chaircat Meow]

Might I add that the Lannisters never bothered to rebuild thier war fleet after the Greyjoy rebellion (convinient way to lose a money sink that is a war fleet, having it all in port and "oh my, those bastards burned our fleet! A shame"....)., and they hired the cheapest sellswords possible? Considering that most of thier wealth comes from thier mines, and that GRRM did not ignore the fact that mines can stop providing, it is very possible that Tywin is putting up a show of force with loans and what little wealth he still has.

And Kevan might not yet know the real situation of the gold reserves he has, if he has not yet been to CR after Tywin's death...

Where did you get this idea from?

According to GrrM they did.

http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/The_Lannister_Fleet