Banner Without Brothers

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  1. Yeah I don't know why people take it all so personally and get so upset about it. People are allowed different opinions. But I definitely get the fatigue factor. I've had good debates as well and no longer have that itch to discuss it. My attitude is more like sit back wait and see and if it does turn out I'm wrong I won't lose any sleep over it. If it turns out R+L=/=J I'd want to put some of the other people in this thread on suicide watch
  2. I did say some of the responses. Neither you or @Lyanna<3Rhaegar were rude imo. Quite the opposite you attempted to engage. So I'm not sure why you would think it was directed towards you. Some of the other responses were just toxic. The two comments after mine proved my point! I have tried in the past to engage in the debate but was met with a similar hostility from some of the posters acting hostile towards this new user. At the end of the day it's not worth my time or effort.
  3. @Ser Insight You may have noticed that people are super touchy about R+L=~J. Challenging it is like going up to some fundamentalist Christians and telling them that Jesus didn't exist. Part of the problem is that there are so many threads on the subject. Almost weekly for years. So most people have been over the theories multiple times. So they're fatigued from discussing it so much. I think some of the responses you've received are shameful and there's no excuse for them. If I'd responded to a new poster or anyone like that I would be ashamed. When I see a subject I'm not interested in or think is ridiculous I don't read it and don't respond. I don't know why some people feel entitled to start trolling. R+L=D keep the dream alive brother
  4. OK get your tinfoil hat ready and strap yourself in. It goes something like this; Bran has been absorbed by the CotF and the weirwoods. This operates as a sort of hive minded consciousness as with Martin's other work. The CotF are using Bran's body and his abilities to get rid of mankind or do some bad stuff. Bran's consciousness is still just about functioning but he's not in control of his body. So he goes back to the beginning to stop all of this from happening. He figures if he trades one life, his own, for all the deaths in the future it's worth it, as he'll be fully absorbed soon anyway. Note the "he's dead already" part. When he gets there he finds his mother but determined to stop this future he goes ahead with his plan and well you know the rest. It's just a bit of fun and would be a cool ending. Eerily similar to the plot of the Terminator films I'm just realizing My own opinion on this is that Mance went there with the intention of causing trouble and opportunistically took advantage of the Bran situation. Mance's explanation of why he goes to Winterfell is pretty lame. He says he goes there just to get a look at the southron king. Like he's got nothing better to do, like I don't know look for the horn of Joramun or organize and train his army or plan the invasion. Anything, but instead he decides to poetically go and look Robert in the face to get the measure of him. This is a journey that involves scaling the wall walking hundreds of miles across the gift and the new gift where he buys a horse on Umber land and rides down the king's road at great speed to catch up with the royal party. At any point he could be captured or killed all for a look at Robert. It's a nice story and makes him look all kinds of brave but objectively it's probably one of the dumbest things a leader could do. This is also a story he's telling Jon it's not like he can say I went there to try to start a war between your family and the crown. Regarding the dagger I think it would be weird for the catspaw to take the dagger away no matter who he's working for. You don't want to be carrying around a blood soaked murder weapon while you're making your escape. You especially don't want to be a smelly lowborn carrying a VS dagger. That's all the proof any guard who stopped him would need. If the catspaw had any hope of escaping alive he would want to leave the dagger. The same way any mob hit in a film you've seen goes, they always drop the gun when the deed is done. Especially if there's no dna testing, no forensics. It's the only proof you did anything other than being a smelly peasant who no one knows. I think the plan from Mance's PoV is pretty solid. Burn the library, you expect everyone to be trying to put out the fire and go kill the boy. It's only a bad plan if you don't know Cat very well. Yeah it could be. But he's pretty stealthy to avoid detection for a week. Then to move from one part of the castle to another. We don't know if it was his plan to burn the library or his employer. It doesn't strike me as a simple minded thing he's doing it takes some skill. Although he is described as "stupidly repeating it's a mercy" so the suggestion he's stupid is there. It makes more sense if he''s doing it for a reason other than just payment, like being a wildling. It's similar in a way to how the spearwives behave when rescuing fArya and Theon. Littlefinger also commands a lot of loyalty. I agree with you on LF. I just don't see the need for it. There's also a real lack of evidence for him. It's totally possible that he could do it. Like it's possible that Dario could be Euron. Technically a great many things are possible but there's not a lot of hard evidence like the silver and Mance. Do you think it can be seen both ways? As in it's a shared opinion meaning it's not unusual for the dagger to be seen as plain. Some people think it's striking some people think it's plain. So with all the holes in the Joffrey theory where are you now on believing he did it? Has the needle moved at all?
  5. @Frey family reunion That was an amazing post and I agree with you completely. I especially enjoyed the parallels to greek mythology. I'd made a similar argument earlier for Mance's motives but far less eloquently. @Ckram Thanks for that I'd actually forgotten about that conversation in Tyrion 1. It is very interesting that Cersei later blames Robert for the very thing she said.
  6. I think it's a big leap to get from killing Summer to killing Bran. Especially as it was a cat sent to kill Bran not a wolf or a dog. I'm not really into putting great emphasis on finding hidden meanings and symbolism in certain words but I think these words are very specific. I think it's a reasonable mistake for Tyrion to make the conversation happened a long time ago. But to base his case on this is completely wrong as it never happened. As a reader I think it's unreasonable for us to make a connection from dog>wolf>cat. It's a completely changed meaning completely changed and contradicting symbolism. Well one clear motive was if she were guilty of the crime herself or at the very least she doesn't want to be accused of it. It doesn't necessarily mean that she is lying about everything. Although I do see it as the literary device of a character starting a conversation with a lie as meaning we can't trust any of what they're saying. Like they're in lying mode. I think one way to read that part is that she lies, then goes to close the window perhaps turning her back to hide her face while she's thinking turns back and starts leading Jaime first to Robert which he quickly rejects then to the children until he lands on Joffrey who's dead so what does it matter. Then she changes the subject. edit: I reread this and didn't think I'd answered the question properly. I think in the end it's all just weird and that we're not going to find an answer as to whether this was intentional or not until someone straight up asks him whether this conversation ever happened. It is a strange thing to lie about but it's not like Tyrion is likely to be able to ever refute it so it's a safe lie from her perspective. I think I first heard this theory on here a few years ago so I can't take credit for it but when I read it it made sense and yeah it would be cool. I think it really centres on this and that he then repeats it emphasising it's importance. Especially if it was Bran warging some guy. Because to Bran Cat is not supposed to be there. As when he wakes up she's gone. The Catspaw is a whole other part of this I haven't discussed. He is one dedicated catspaw. Hides in the stables for a week. He's already been paid so no huge reason to go through with it. His plan goes wrong why not just run when he sees Cat. Instead he fights her like killing Bran is not just a mercy, not just a job, it's like he has to go through with it for some unknown reason. For me this also points away from Joff. It's not like Joff has any real power to go hunt this guy. His power comes from his father so he can't exactly go and complain about the catspaw to him. Just one more thing back to some symbolism. Silver is what Mance has in winterfell. I also associate it with Littlefinger, his silver broach. Baratheons and Lannisters are always associated with gold. Like I said I don't put too much stock in symbolism arguments but it's another strange thing that feels out of place.
  7. Thanks, some of the longer posts do take a long time to make like 1/2 an hour or even an hour or more. Sometimes I use a search of ice and fire but other times I'm going to the books and rereading chapters. That's nothing compared to what some people do though. I see some people able to put so effort into their theories that they come out with essays for. I'd never have the patience for that. I think that's one of the most frustrating parts. But I'm grateful for the opportunity to expand and talk through these ideas more Regarding the dragonbone I thought that would be the central piece of evidence for Littlefinger + Joffrey. As the exact same description is used by LF when discussing the dagger with Tyrion ACoK Tyrion 4 It is weird that only these two characters see the dagger as plain.Tyrion describes dragonbone as being like black diamond and Daenerys describes her dragonbone bow as "shiny, black, exquisite". But it could just be a matter of opinion. The similarity in their description could be seen as showing exactly that. That more than one person believes that dragonbone is plain and it's not unusual for Joffrey to hold that opinion. My problem with LF+Joff would be that LF has zero need of Joffrey's involvement. He has an agent at Winterfell, who delivered the Myrish lens with the letter and who informed him of Cat's trip to King's Landing. The problem is that he needs to find out about Bran's fall then communicate with the agent in Winterfell. So a raven round trip made in three weeks. Quite possible imo. The biggest problem with Lf is that he simply doesn't need to. He's already got a plan to sew mistrust between the Starks and Lannisters. This would be the proverbial cherry on the top. But it just seems such an unnecessary risk. Something a bit out of character for LF. Mance on the other hand has no plan to beat the seven kingdoms or even the North, he's stopped by the wall and a couple thousand cavalry. That's why I would rank Mance higher than LF in the list of suspects. His motive far exceeds everyone else's.
  8. I suppose it is a bit much to say he disagrees but he doesn't agree. I'm saying she could be lying if we assume it's not author error. I mean it's conceivable that he wrote in this conversation between Cersei and Tyrion about the dagger somewhere prior to Jaime 9. It could be that he had it edited out and all mention of it was edited out of the story but they missed this small part. Writing that does seem rather wild speculation and I'm writing my own counter arguments. But it's just about conceivable. However, if we read this part from the assumption that it's not author error it does seem like Cersei is lying. If she's lied about the conversation what else can she be lying about possibly all of it. That could mean no conversation with Robert no children over hearing nothing for Jaime to base his Joffrey theory on. Just Cersei deflecting Jaime away from suspecting her. But then why would she lie to Jaime? It's not a question I have an answer for, he was the one to push him out of the window. So....It's a mystery, a suspicious mystery. Although around this time don't we find out she is lying to Jaime about screwing around while he's been away. Moonboy for all I know and all of that. I'm not married to any theory. My own personal hope is it's a time travel thing, someone from the future sent back to take out an all powerful Bran before he gets started, maybe even Bran himself. That's just a feeling though based on wild speculation. My top suspects would be Mance Littlefinger Cersei Robert I could make a good case for either Mance or Littlefinger they both have means far more motive and opportunity. Cersei is based purely on this mystery and Robert if you put faith in the e-mails. Implicated in ACoK and ASoS. So a big gap between 2 and 3.
  9. Thanks for the response and welcome to the party jump right in. I'll just mention the most important red flags in Tyrion's reasoning. We start with a false premise of Joffrey not knowing Valyrian steel. As LiveFirstDieLater pointed out Joffrey saw Ned being executed with Ice a Valyrian steel blade. He should be at least slightly familiar with it. It's often described as looking different and other characters notice Valyrian blades at first look. Yet Tyrion seems to think Joffrey shouldn't know Valyrian steel for some reason. Tyrion convinces himself that on this alone and then constructs his case upon it. Tyrion misremembers the conversation with the Hound. This is by far the biggest. It could be brushed aside by calling it author error. But I really don't think it is in this instance.To me it seems very intentional. Tyrion remembers Joffrey saying "send a dog to kill a wolf".What he actually says is send a dog to kill a dog. Send Sandor to kill Summer. Joffrey actually had no interest in Bran he just wanted the wolf to shut up. It's Sandor who said it would be a mercy to kill Bran, Joffrey disagrees. Tyrion then rejects his own premise. Even Tyrion doesn't think Joffrey is stupid enough to use a Valyrian dagger that could easily be traced. If we're to trust Tyrion should we not trust him on this point. For me this reasoning is so bad that it seems as if Martin is intentionally trying to to show us that Tyrion is wrong. You raise an interesting point that hasn't been discussed too much, by me anyway. Which is how we read Joffrey's reaction which sparks Tyrion's suspicion. I can definitely see your point of view on this. However, put yourself in Joffrey's shoes. He's just smashed up Tyrion's present and demanded a new one. Tyrion is described as shaking with rage by Sansa, if she can see it Joff can too. Tyrion's come back is to offer him a new dagger. Imagine you are intentionally provoking, you want an argument, a fight but all you get is an offer of a new wedding present. Wouldn't you be shocked? Maybe give him a sharp look and stumble over your words a little in surprise. I think it's fair to say that the scene can be read two ways. Jaime's motive is fine. It's how or more why he gets there that troubles me. Jaime has been feeling guilty about not being able to be a father to Joffrey. These are ASoS quotes of him thinking about being a father to Joffrey. I think it's safe to say that a theme of Jaime in ASoS is thinking about being a real family and a real father especially to Joffrey and then regretting it when Joffrey dies. So it's natural that his motive for Joffrey reflects just that. It's not a keen insight, it's not even about Joffrey, it's about Jaime's regrets. Then we have the Cersei lie or the Martin mistake in that chapter. Where she tells Jaime that she had a conversation with Tyrion about the dagger which as far as we know never took place. It seems as though this is author error or it's intentional. If it's intentional then Cersei is lying and trying to pin the blame on Robert. When that fails she mentions Myrcella which makes Jaime think of the children which steers him to Joffrey. He starts the conversation thinking she did it and through her manipulation he concludes that it's Joffrey. It could of course be another author error there's no way to prove it either way or it could have happened off screen. It's just that Tyrion never thinks about this conversation when he's piecing things together or after or ever. There's just too many mistakes too much faulty reasoning. If you discount the evidence that is wrong or fallacious we really are left with nothing that implicates Joffrey.
  10. I think it's a case of people hearing the same thing over and over again and from each other making it truth in their eyes. That's why they get angry when they hear a different opinion that challenges the orthodoxy. It's not just the individual being proven wrong in their beliefs it's their community that is being challenged which can often provoke a stronger reaction. It happens to all of us and it happens all the time. There's a feeling of security that comes from a group knowledge. That's my pseudo-psychological-sociological view anyway.
  11. I'm noticing a common theme in this debate. I present my argument based on the text. Then I get accused of not arguing from the text while my actual post regarding the text is not debated at all. Instead the immediate comeback is to run back to the e-mails. This is the third time it's happened.and it's very frustrating. Either it's tacit agreement and there is no counter argument and they agree that Tyrion's reasoning is rubbish and that Jaime and Cersei's conversation is suspect at best. Or they think it's too ridiculous. Meaning I haven't explained myself well enough. So please if you don't understand any part of my argument or disagree with it challenge me on it so I can have the opportunity to explain myself better.
  12. Well the most obvious is that he changed his mind on how he wanted to present the information. It's a fan e-mail not the dead sea scrolls. Same question I put to Mormont regarding the e-mails. They say that it can be deduced from the first two books. What evidence is there for Joffrey from the 1st two books? You and others keep saying that he's the only one implicated in ASoS. That's untrue. Robert certainly is and Cersei possibly is as well. edit: I just realized that Robert is first implicated in ACoK and then again in ASoS. As far as I know Joffrey isn't implicated in the first two books.
  13. Absolutely we get to see the world through their eyes. Along with their prejudices (Tyrion) or their regrets of not being a father (Jaime). Or Daenerys with how many times she's wrong or Jon or Sansa or any of them. And especially when the two characters come to the same conclusion from completely different reasons. Tyrion is usually a fairly reliable character for making logical deductions when he's not prejudiced. The only times he does go haywire is when he's thinking about Cersei and in this case Joffrey (or when he's thinking with his member Har!). Other times he's highly logical and perceptive like when he's deducing the identity of Aegon.
  14. I'd just also say that people keep saying that it must be true because two people come to the same conclusion. That's not how that works. Two people can be wrong just as easily as one can be wrong.
  15. I did a long post (well long for me) on it a few pages back where I point out that every step of his deduction is completely flawed and unreasonable. It's made while he's drunk and furious with Joffrey. Leaps of faith are logical fallacies for a reason, it's faulty logic built upon a faulty premise, which generally leads to a faulty conclusion. That's my premise that Joffrey is innocent. That Martin is showing that because Joffrey is the bad guy that we, like Tyrion, will happily jump to conclusions over evidence that is wholly fallacious. I'd say your first example is not a leap of faith. I would say it's a moment of realisation where all the evidence starts to come together. Making it a hypothesis rather than a faulty premise. The second example is absolutely a leap of faith and a good point which is why I've said previously that Tyrion could be right on the wrong reasoning. But it's not a pattern, I struggle to think of others in ASoIaF or his other work, that doesn't mean they're not there, just I can't think of any. We also have examples going the other way Cersei accusing Tyrion off the top of my head. Just to recap on Jaime. He enters the conversation by asking Cersei if she did it. He's firing in all directions, he again like Tyrion is happy to pin it on Joffrey but for completely different reasons. Tyrion thinks it's because he's stupid, vicious and arrogant Jaime thinks he did it because he's insecure and desperate for approval, approval that Jaime couldn't give him, Jaime's premise could be seen as being based more upon his own desires to have been more of a father to Joffrey. From the same conversation As I said in my last post and previously others are implicated in that conversation. Namely Robert and Cersei. Cersei either lies in that conversation or it's an author error. She claims she had a conversation with Tyrion about the dagger which as far as we know didn't happen. If it's not an error and she is lying then it makes everything she says in that conversation suspect. That means we can't be certain if Robert said what he said or if Joffrey heard it. Meaning Jaimes reasoning would be built on a false premise. I can't quote the whole conversation but just read that part again from the perspective that Cersei could be lying. If she's lying then it implicates her strongly. I'm not saying that it's definite at all but it's fishy.