Battle's of Tumbleton

[The Grey Wolf]

Something else I thought of the other day: The Dance doesn't not really match its description about how divided the realm was with the whole thing about one lord raising one banner only to see their neighbor raise the other and sons, brothers, fathers, etc. all fighting one another when by and large the regions seem to have fought as united wholes. In fact, that description fits better with the First Blackfyre Rebellion!

[Lord Varys]

18 hours ago, The Grey Wolf said:

Something else I thought of the other day: The Dance doesn't not really match its description about how divided the realm was with the whole thing about one lord raising one banner only to see their neighbor raise the other and sons, brothers, fathers, etc. all fighting one another when by and large the regions seem to have fought as united wholes. In fact, that description fits better with the First Blackfyre Rebellion!

One assumes this is only irritating because we don't yet know all that much about the details of the Dance. There are those regions were the lords followed the lead of the great houses, but there is a good chance that things were more complicated in other regions. We know the Greens never troubled to make an offer to the North, suggesting it very unlikely that anyone up there declared for Aegon II. But the Riverlands and Reach were split up between the factions, and Rhaenyra may have had some friends we don't hear anything about in the West (while the Ironborn had not yet attacked the coast) while Aegon II had some friends in the Vale.

Not to mention that many families may have been split up between the two sides due to historical accidents. We see this with the Cargyll twins, but they might not have been the only ones.

Daemon Blackfyre had many friends in the Reach and the Dornish Marches, and possibly some in the Riverlands, but we don't anything about him being supported by major houses from the West, the Vale, the Crownlands, or the North.

[Lord Varys]

On 30.12.2016 at 7:43 PM, Adam Yozza said:

As I said, there are problems with the Dance, most of which are caused by gaps in the information we have. I sincerely doubt that there wouldn't have been sellswords hired if the Green's had all the wealth. The question is why aren't they ever mentioned. The small amount of hedge knights and freeriders that would join the armies not being mentioned is fine, but why not the companies? Maybe they never got to fight for some reason? 

It's also likely that Bravos, Pentos and Volantis would have hired a fair amount of sellswords in prep. for an attack on the Triarch. They were just waiting for an opportunity after all. It wouldn't be strange if they hired their armies in advance.

Also, my apologies Grey Wolf, I promised to respond to your last post and never got round to it. I will eventually, I promise.

I think we have to consider the possibility that the Kingdom of the Three Daughters greatly changed the political landscape in the Disputed Lands. Those lands no longer were disputed and while Myr, Tyrosh, and Lys usually worked with sellswords while they were independent it seems the Three Daughters actually formed a powerful military when they united. There would have been little work for sellswords in those days, greatly reducing their numbers in the process.

Volantis and Braavos don't seem to work with sellswords at all, having a standing army and navy of their own like any proper nation should. The wealth of the Three Daughters would have increased greatly during the reign of the Triarchy, and whatever free companies reformed in the wake of its collapse would have been very eager to get their share in the spoils of that war. Westeros was pretty much done already while the Disputed Lands were ripe for the taking and the coffers of Lys, Tyrosh, and Myr overflowing.

[The Grey Wolf]

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

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Warning: Lengthy post ahead.

Lord Varys

On the Dance: I agree with 50000 words missing there is a lot we don't know. I was just pointing out another of the Dance's many problems from a literary perspective (IMHO to be clear) given what we have right now.

On FBR: I think you're wrong to a certain degree. The North I agree given that they were busy still dealing with the death of Rickon Stark's effect on the succession plus the Skagosi Rebellion might have taken place at the same time Daemon I made his bid for the throne. After all we only know that the former was sometime during Daeron II's reign but not exactly when. The Crownlands likewise would have been diehard Targaryen loyalists if for nothing other than the fact that KL is so near to their holdings. The other regions though are different stories. We know thanks to the TWOIAF that there were "many battles fought between the black and red dragons in the Vale, westerlands, the riverlands, and elsewhere".

With regards to the Vale we know that the Sunderlans dragged the Three Sisters into two of the BRs (I personally don't count their prescence at Whitewalls as the second time but then again why the SBR is considered a rebellion in the first place and not an aborted plot is beyond me) so we know at least they fought for the Blacks but given the aforementioned description I would not be surprised and indeed expect that other houses also threw in their lot with the rebels, most prominently House Royce. Daemon's faction drew a lot of its support from those houses that historically had always been unruly or were the second-most powerful after the Lords Paramount. House Royce fits that description, is powerful enough that with its vassals would necessitate even without the Three Sisters more than a few battles to put down, and were once very briefly First Men High Kings of the Vale under Robar II in contrast to the conquering Andal Arryns.

With regards to the Westerlands we know that two of Daemon's (presumably not few given again the aforementioned line from TWOIAF) supporters were Ser Robb Reyne and Redtusk. Redtusk was obviously a Crakehall who if I had to guess probably let Daemon's army from the Reach march through his lands unimpeded and without sending word to the Lannisters, allowing them to surprise Lord Lefford before the gates of Lannisport, perhaps with Crakehall switching sides to the Blacks in the heat of the subsequent battle with Lord Lannister. As for Ser Robb Reyne we know that Daemon (uniquely as far as we know) minted his own coinage and who would have the wealth in gold and silver necessary to finance such an endeavor on a scale equal to that of the Iron Throne other than the lords of Castamere?

So all in all I'm inclined to believe until evidence to the contrary is given in the form of new material from GRRM that Daemon had quite a bit of support all over Westeros except the North (too busy dealing with internal issues to support either side), the Iron Islands (too much of a wildcard for either side, especially after what Dalton turned out like), the Crownlands (for the above-mentioned reasons), and possibly the Stormlands (who seem to have been peeled away from Daemon, their natural preference one would assume given it's history, thanks to (among other things) Daeron II's marrying his two eldest sons into the families of Marcher Lords, who we know to have been amongst the first to seek Daemon out with their grievances not to mention that the army Baelor Breakspear led at the Redgrass Field was a mixed contingent, which otherwise doesn't make much sense given that less than a generation ago the Stormlanders had fought against the Dornish).

[The Grey Wolf]

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

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Even if that were the case we are still talking about the wealth of Casterly Rock, famed as far as Asshai, and a fourth of the royal treasury belonging to a continent bigger than Europe after it had enjoyed over just over four generations of peace. There should have been some that Lord Tyland could have bribed with way more gold than Lys, Myr, and Tyrosh could ever hope to match, especially if Aegon II sweetened the deal by offering lands and other rewards in Westeros for their service. I mean just look at the Lannisters in ASOIAF. They're so rich they could if they wanted to pay off the crown's entire debt and we know that Tywin did this once at the beginning of Aerys II's reign before their relationship deteriorated.

As for Westeros being done no it was not so. At the time Tyland was sent the Greyjoys were still reaving the Westerlands, the Hightower army while much diminished was still intact albeit some distance away having retreated back into the Reach for lack of supplies, the Vale was still holding out for the Blacks, the Lads were marching on King's Landing, Cregan Stark down the Kingsroad with a fresh host, and Borros Baratheon with his out to confront them. All in all not close to being done at all but then we get to the bullshit that is the Battle of the Kingsroad and I've already made clear why that battle irks me so much so I'll just stop here. 

[Lord Varys]

11 minutes ago, The Grey Wolf said:

On FBR: I think you're wrong to a certain degree. The North I agree given that they were busy still dealing with the death of Rickon Stark's effect on the succession plus the Skagosi Rebellion might have taken place at the same time Daemon I made his bid for the throne. After all we only know that the former was sometime during Daeron II's reign but not exactly when. The Crownlands likewise would have been diehard Targaryen loyalists if for nothing other than the fact that KL is so near to their holdings. The other regions though are different stories. We know thanks to the TWOIAF that there were "many battles fought between the black and red dragons in the Vale, westerlands, the riverlands, and elsewhere".

Still, this doesn't mean that those regions were split up more or less equally between the Red and the Black Dragon. It could have been that Daemon had large enough armies recruited in the Reach, the Marches, and the Riverlands to invade launch attack on those regions. What happened in the West strongly suggests that this was the case there.

11 minutes ago, The Grey Wolf said:

With regards to the Vale we know that the Sunderlans dragged the Three Sisters into two of the BRs (I personally don't count their prescence at Whitewalls as the second time but then again why the SBR is considered a rebellion in the first place and not an aborted plot is beyond me) so we know at least they fought for the Blacks but given the aforementioned description I would not be surprised and indeed expect that other houses also threw in their lot with the rebels, most prominently House Royce. Daemon's faction drew a lot of its support from those houses that historically had always been unruly or were the second-most powerful after the Lords Paramount. House Royce fits that description, is powerful enough that with its vassals would necessitate even without the Three Sisters more than a few battles to put down, and were once very briefly First Men High Kings of the Vale under Robar II in contrast to the conquering Andal Arryns.

We know the Arryns and the Vale stood with Daeron II on the Redgrass Field. I doubt the Royces would have survived the war had they declared for Daemon Blackfyre (repeatedly).

This doesn't mean that second sons and unaffiliated knights, freeriders, and men-at-arms from all over Westeros didn't flock to Daemon's banner. In fact, that's quite likely. And there are hints that some of the greater houses - Hightower, Butterwell, Lothston, Bracken, etc. may have stood with Daemon, too. However, they would have been very carefully to keep at least a foot in both camps or not officially denounce Daeron II.

11 minutes ago, The Grey Wolf said:

With regards to the Westerlands we know that two of Daemon's (presumably not few given again the aforementioned line from TWOIAF) supporters were Ser Robb Reyne and Redtusk. Redtusk was obviously a Crakehall who if I had to guess probably let Daemon's army from the Reach march through his lands unimpeded and without sending word to the Lannisters, allowing them to surprise Lord Lefford before the gates of Lannisport, perhaps with Crakehall switching sides to the Blacks in the heat of the subsequent battle with Lord Lannister. As for Ser Robb Reyne we know that Daemon (uniquely as far as we know) minted his own coinage and who would have the wealth in gold and silver necessary to finance such an endeavor on a scale equal to that of the Iron Throne other than the lords of Castamere?

We don't really know who Redtusk was, do we? I know about Ser Robb Reyne but he wasn't the Lord Reyne, was he? I expect him to have been a famous knight who brought quite a few swords to Daemon's cause but not necessarily all the power of House Reyne.

I expected some of the more powerful houses to actually openly declare for the Blackfyres. The Yronwoods did that three times, apparently. But TWoIaF didn't really deliver on that front.

11 minutes ago, The Grey Wolf said:

So all in all I'm inclined to believe until evidence to the contrary is given in the form of new material from GRRM that Daemon had quite a bit of support all over Westeros except the North (too busy dealing with internal issues to support either side), the Iron Islands (too much of a wildcard for either side, especially after what Dalton turned out like), the Crownlands (for the above-mentioned reasons), and possibly the Stormlands (who seem to have been peeled away from Daemon, their natural preference one would assume given it's history, thanks to (among other things) Daeron II's marrying his two eldest sons into the families of Marcher Lords, who we know to have been amongst the first to seek Daemon out with their grievances not to mention that the army Baelor Breakspear led at the Redgrass Field was a mixed contingent, which otherwise doesn't make much sense given that less than a generation ago the Stormlanders had fought against the Dornish).

The fact that Baelor had Stormlanders in his army doesn't mean those were all the Stormlords. I expect the Penroses, the Dondarrions and the Baratheons to have stood with Daeron II, but the Carons, the Swanns, and others might have stood with Daemon, although possibly only in earlier battles of the war and not on the Redgrass Field.

4 minutes ago, The Grey Wolf said:

Even if that were the case we are still talking about the wealth of Casterly Rock, famed as far as Asshai, and a fourth of the royal treasury belonging to a continent bigger than Europe after it had enjoyed over just over four generations of peace. There should have been some that Lord Tyland could have bribed with way more gold than Lys, Myr, and Tyrosh could ever hope to match, especially if Aegon II sweetened the deal by offering lands and other rewards in Westeros for their service. I mean just look at the Lannisters in ASOIAF. They're so rich they could if they wanted to pay off the crown's entire debt and we know that Tywin did this once at the beginning of Aerys II's reign before their relationship deteriorated.

The West was in ruins by the time Aegon II sent Tyland to Essos, and Lady Johanna ruled in Casterly Rock, not her crippled brother-in-law. She may not have been willing to extend any loans to Aegon II while her own lands were ravaged by the Ironborn.

And we actually have no idea what happened to the four parts of the treasury of Viserys I. Did they reach the Iron Bank, Oldtown, and Casterly Rock? We don't know any of that.

I guess the people in Essos just were no longer keen in involving themselves in a Westerosi civil war. Not after the Gullet and the losses they suffered there. That led to the fall of the Triarchy, after all.

4 minutes ago, The Grey Wolf said:

As for Westeros being done no it was not so. At the time Tyland was sent the Greyjoys were still reaving the Westerlands, the Hightower army while much diminished was still intact albeit some distance away having retreated back into the Reach for lack of supplies, the Vale was still holding out for the Blacks, the Lads were marching on King's Landing, Cregan Stark down the Kingsroad with a fresh host, and Borros Baratheon with his out to confront them. All in all not close to being done at all but then we get to the bullshit that is the Battle of the Kingsroad and I've already made clear why that battle irks me so much so I'll just stop here. 

The Hightower army effectively dissolved. A dissolving army is no army at all. The men there had no longer any intention to fight for Aegon II. They wanted to go home.

We don't know exactly when Tyland and the others went to Essos - could have been before or after the Kingsroad. But what we know from Ran's recent comments on the Corlys Velaryon situation (him forcing Aegon II to pardon Aegon the Younger, name him his heir, and betroth him to Jaehaera in exchange for the support of the Velaryon fleet) indicates that the Greens were pretty much spent despite Aegon II's restoration to the Iron Throne.

We also have to keep in mind that the Lords of Westeros were most likely much less interested to continue some stupid war of succession in the middle of winter than the average reader thinks they should be. Once Aegon II was dead there was simply no good reason to continue the war, and even while Aegon II was still alive he himself seems to have been the greatest obstacle to peace.

[The Grey Wolf]

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Still, this doesn't mean that those regions were split up more or less equally between the Red and the Black Dragon. It could have been that Daemon had large enough armies recruited in the Reach, the Marches, and the Riverlands to invade launch attack on those regions. What happened in the West strongly suggests that this was the case there.

Considering that Robert Baratheon was described as the greatest threat to the Targaryen monarchy since Daemon (I) Blackfyre and that in the latter case mere hours would made the difference between success and failure in the last battle I have to disagree with your assessment of how much support the Black Dragon had.

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

We know the Arryns and the Vale stood with Daeron II on the Redgrass Field. I doubt the Royces would have survived the war had they declared for Daemon Blackfyre (repeatedly).

This doesn't mean that second sons and unaffiliated knights, freeriders, and men-at-arms from all over Westeros didn't flock to Daemon's banner. In fact, that's quite likely. And there are hints that some of the greater houses - Hightower, Butterwell, Lothston, Bracken, etc. may have stood with Daemon, too. However, they would have been very carefully to keep at least a foot in both camps or not officially denounce Daeron II.

I didn't say that the Royces declared for the Blackfyres repeatedly (though they might have during the First and the Third) just that it was a possibility. Furthermore, the Peakes and Yronwoods are proof contrary to your assertion that the Royces wouldn't have survived the war if they had. Beyond that how do you explain there being many battles in the Vale between the black and red dragons? Surely, the Three Sisters alone wouldn't merit such a description.

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

We don't really know who Redtusk was, do we? I know about Ser Robb Reyne but he wasn't the Lord Reyne, was he? I expect him to have been a famous knight who brought quite a few swords to Daemon's cause but not necessarily all the power of House Reyne.

I expected some of the more powerful houses to actually openly declare for the Blackfyres. The Yronwoods did that three times, apparently. But TWoIaF didn't really deliver on that front.

Oh, come on Lord Varys. With a name like Redtusk which other house could possibly fit better not to mention how else do you explain Daemon's army making it all the way to Lannisport before coming to blows with the Lannisters and other Red supporters? As for Robb Reyne can you name a better source for Daemon's currency other than House Reyne itself? As to TWOIAF it barely delivered anything on any of the Blackfyre Rebellions! In fact, we have more information on the First in just TSS alone so the fact that TWOIAF doesn't explicitly say that some of the more powerful houses declared for Daemon doesn't hold much truck with me sorry.

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The fact that Baelor had Stormlanders in his army doesn't mean those were all the Stormlords. I expect the Penroses, the Dondarrions and the Baratheons to have stood with Daeron II, but the Carons, the Swanns, and others might have stood with Daemon, although possibly only in earlier battles of the war and not on the Redgrass Field.

Nonetheless, my point was the fact that he was able to hold a Dornish-Stormlanders force together can be considered in part because of him and Aerys's marriage to Stormlands houses. Less than two generations ago the Stormlands fought against Dorne under the Young Dragon and if the name behind the Weeping Town is any indication they didn't take his murder easily. Furthermore, less than a single generation ago Aegon IV inflamed the hatred that burned in the Reach and the Stormlands as part of his aggressive foreign policy towards Dorne. Thus, the fact that the Stormlands seem to have held strong for the Reds to a significant degree and that they were willing to fight alongside Dornishmen is a matter of interest. 

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The West was in ruins by the time Aegon II sent Tyland to Essos, and Lady Johanna ruled in Casterly Rock, not her crippled brother-in-law. She may not have been willing to extend any loans to Aegon II while her own lands were ravaged by the Ironborn.

And we actually have no idea what happened to the four parts of the treasury of Viserys I. Did they reach the Iron Bank, Oldtown, and Casterly Rock? We don't know any of that.

I guess the people in Essos just were no longer keen in involving themselves in a Westerosi civil war. Not after the Gullet and the losses they suffered there. That led to the fall of the Triarchy, after all.

The fall of the Triarchy had to do with its innate instability as a result of the rivalries of its members and the Black Swann. Seriously, if 60 ships was that serious a blow to the Triarchy then in no way should they have been considered a legitimate military power capable of warring for the Stepstones against Daemon and Corlys for years or defeating Volantis with its 300 ships. As for the treasury it is as you say we don't know though I'd hope that it did and/or that it played some role of importance in the Dance. As for Casterly Rock why not? We have no reason to assume Lady Johanna had a bad relationship with her brother-in-law (whose torture and mutilation if her treatment of Dalton's salt son is any indication she wouldn't have taken kindly) not to mention Tyland could easily do what Tyrion has currently done with the Second Sons.

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The Hightower army effectively dissolved. A dissolving army is no army at all. The men there had no longer any intention to fight for Aegon II. They wanted to go home.

We don't know exactly when Tyland and the others went to Essos - could have been before or after the Kingsroad. But what we know from Ran's recent comments on the Corlys Velaryon situation (him forcing Aegon II to pardon Aegon the Younger, name him his heir, and betroth him to Jaehaera in exchange for the support of the Velaryon fleet) indicates that the Greens were pretty much spent despite Aegon II's restoration to the Iron Throne.

We also have to keep in mind that the Lords of Westeros were most likely much less interested to continue some stupid war of succession in the middle of winter than the average reader thinks they should be. Once Aegon II was dead there was simply no good reason to continue the war, and even while Aegon II was still alive he himself seems to have been the greatest obstacle to peace.

The Hightower army still existed in some capacity and what was left had to retreat for lack of supplies and a claimant (Aegon II at the time was still missing and presumed dead) not because the men wanted to go home. As for when Tyland was sent to Essos it doesn't make sense for him to have been sent after the Kingsroad and in fact I would be surprised if he wasn't sent as soon as Aegon II took back the city. As for the king that was only because he had lost so blatantly but again that brings up my serious beef with the Greens military campaign and in particular the Battle of the Kingsroad so I'll just say that things might have been very different had the war not ended the way it did.

[Lord Varys]

9 hours ago, The Grey Wolf said:

Considering that Robert Baratheon was described as the greatest threat to the Targaryen monarchy since Daemon (I) Blackfyre and that in the latter case mere hours would made the difference between success and failure in the last battle I have to disagree with your assessment of how much support the Black Dragon had.

That is an assessment of Daemon Blackfyre's danger to the Targaryen dynasty. But this doesn't tell us anything about the number of his followers. I think the Redgrass Field was in the Crownlands, close to KL, and the deciding battle of the war. If Daemon had won there he might have been able to claim the Iron Throne. But even then this wouldn't have been the end of it. We know that no great house of Westeros openly declared for the Black Dragon even at that point, and Daeron II had four sons. Unless Daemon had killed Daeron II and all his heirs the war would have continued, and we can reasonably assume that the Blackfyre regime wouldn't have been able to remain in power.

9 hours ago, The Grey Wolf said:

I didn't say that the Royces declared for the Blackfyres repeatedly (though they might have during the First and the Third) just that it was a possibility. Furthermore, the Peakes and Yronwoods are proof contrary to your assertion that the Royces wouldn't have survived the war if they had. Beyond that how do you explain there being many battles in the Vale between the black and red dragons? Surely, the Three Sisters alone wouldn't merit such a description.

The Peakes greatly suffered for their continued rebellion against the Iron Throne. They lost castles, lands, privileges, and members. There is no reason to believe the Royces were anything but honored and respected over the last centuries. In fact, they were even able to establish another lordly branch in the Vale.

The Yronwoods are an oddity, I agree with you there, but considering Dorne's special status in the Seven Kingdoms it would have been up to the Prince of Dorne to punish them, not the Iron Throne.

It seems as if the Yronwoods weren't on the Redgrass Field, possibly fighting during an earlier campaign at Bittersteel's side in Dorne, the Reach, or the Stormlands. They weren't at Whitewalls, either, which means we are likely to see them with Haegon in 219 AC, and Daemon III in 236 AC. I very much doubt many Yronwoods participated in the Fourth Rebellion. It is much more likely that just some second sons or cousins of the Lord Yronwood showed up there. The man would have been completely stupid to support such a lost cause.

9 hours ago, The Grey Wolf said:

Oh, come on Lord Varys. With a name like Redtusk which other house could possibly fit better not to mention how else do you explain Daemon's army making it all the way to Lannisport before coming to blows with the Lannisters and other Red supporters? As for Robb Reyne can you name a better source for Daemon's currency other than House Reyne itself? As to TWOIAF it barely delivered anything on any of the Blackfyre Rebellions! In fact, we have more information on the First in just TSS alone so the fact that TWOIAF doesn't explicitly say that some of the more powerful houses declared for Daemon doesn't hold much truck with me sorry.

I expected the histories of the regions to mention some Blackfyre loyalties and battles. Yet there was nothing of that sort, either.

We don't really know whether Daemon Blackfyre actually was in the West, do we? Fireball led the campaign there.

And again - I'm not doubting that Daemon Blackfyre had a huge army, I'm just pointing out that no great houses (openly) declared for him, and that we have no good reason to believe that many secondary houses fully supported him.

Most of the men at Whitewalls were former Blackfyre loyalists, but not all of them. Some of them had just issues with Aerys I and Bloodraven.

9 hours ago, The Grey Wolf said:

Nonetheless, my point was the fact that he was able to hold a Dornish-Stormlanders force together can be considered in part because of him and Aerys's marriage to Stormlands houses. Less than two generations ago the Stormlands fought against Dorne under the Young Dragon and if the name behind the Weeping Town is any indication they didn't take his murder easily. Furthermore, less than a single generation ago Aegon IV inflamed the hatred that burned in the Reach and the Stormlands as part of his aggressive foreign policy towards Dorne. Thus, the fact that the Stormlands seem to have held strong for the Reds to a significant degree and that they were willing to fight alongside Dornishmen is a matter of interest. 

Well, Aegon IV's war with Dorne was a joke, and there is a chance that the course of the war prior to the Redgrass Field changed the loyalties of many Stormlanders.

9 hours ago, The Grey Wolf said:

The fall of the Triarchy had to do with its innate instability as a result of the rivalries of its members and the Black Swann. Seriously, if 60 ships was that serious a blow to the Triarchy then in no way should they have been considered a legitimate military power capable of warring for the Stepstones against Daemon and Corlys for years or defeating Volantis with its 300 ships. As for the treasury it is as you say we don't know though I'd hope that it did and/or that it played some role of importance in the Dance. As for Casterly Rock why not? We have no reason to assume Lady Johanna had a bad relationship with her brother-in-law (whose torture and mutilation if her treatment of Dalton's salt son is any indication she wouldn't have taken kindly) not to mention Tyland could easily do what Tyrion has currently done with the Second Sons.

Still, the Gullet marked the beginning of the end of the Triarchy.

Tyland had no claim to the gold of Casterly Rock. That belonged to Johanna and her children by Lord Jason. Johanna later extended loans to the Iron Throne for rebuilding but while Dalton was still raiding her priority would have been defending her own lands, not interfering again with the wars outside the West.

9 hours ago, The Grey Wolf said:

The Hightower army still existed in some capacity and what was left had to retreat for lack of supplies and a claimant (Aegon II at the time was still missing and presumed dead) not because the men wanted to go home. As for when Tyland was sent to Essos it doesn't make sense for him to have been sent after the Kingsroad and in fact I would be surprised if he wasn't sent as soon as Aegon II took back the city. As for the king that was only because he had lost so blatantly but again that brings up my serious beef with the Greens military campaign and in particular the Battle of the Kingsroad so I'll just say that things might have been very different had the war not ended the way it did.

The Reach army did not only not declare for a claimant, they also did not recognize a leader after the death of Lord Ormund and his cousin. Many men in those army stood with the Two Betrayers, after all. And the men did not want to press on to KL even before Second Tumbleton. They were quite happy with plundering the city and feasting there.

Why doesn't it make sense to send Tyland after the Kingsroad? Aegon II would have needed sellswords even more then than he did before.

I'm not sure the Greens could have won. Cregan Stark came down with a huge host, apparently, and even if Lord Borros had defeated the Lads he most likely wouldn't have been able to stand against the Northmen.

[The Grey Wolf]

7 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

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On the Blackfyre Rebellions: I understand your position now a lot better. I guess all I can really say is that we'll just have to wait till a new D & E or F & B is published before we can discuss this any further given the dearth of information we have. I do agree though we should have gotten more details on the First and Fifth in TWOIAF. After all, unlike the Third and Fourth those events are not going to be depicted in a D & E story so why not give us some new material on them, at the very least a list of houses supporting each side?

On the Triarchy: I agree the beginning of the end was marked by the Gullet since the text pretty much says so, just not that the casualties of the battle should have been a direct cause of that. Again, the Triarchy warred against Corlys and Daemon for years not to mention they beat Volantis. Losing 60 ships shouldn't mean all that much to them.

On Tyland: My point was given that we have no proof that Lady Johanna didn't get along with her brother-in-law I don't see why she wouldn't (potentially) be willing to loan gold to Aegon II's cause. Again, Tyland can do what Tyrion is doing presently with regards to the Second Sons, promising gold on paper that he might not have now but certainly will or could acquire in the future though in Tyrion's case whether he'll keep to the terms of the contract is another discussion entirely.

On the army of the Reach: If I remember correctly the army was split between those who wanted to stay at Tumbleton, those who wanted to press onward in the name of Aegon II such as the Caltrops and Prince Daeron the Daring, and those who were supporters of the Two Betrayers. What happened to the remaining Green army of the Reach under the command of Lord Unwin Peake following the Second Battle of Tumbleton is unknown but it is indeed unlikely they played any further role IOTL given that Lord Unwin was able to become Hand, which I doubt he'd have been able to do had he been defeated and captured after retreating back into familiar lands.

On Tyland: I guess because I find it hard to imagine Aegon II would wait till after the Kingsroad to search for more men to bring to his cause rather than sooner given that by the time of his restoration the only significant force he could truly call loyal to him was that of Borros.

On the Greens as a whole: That is one of my beefs with the Dance. That not only did the Greens lose so baldly (which makes the historiography bizarre) but that the point of no return was the Kingsroad. That battle is IMHO pure bullshit not only from a military standpoint but from a thematic and plot standpoint as well.

On Cregan's Army: So what if he had more numbers than Borros? Numbers are never the only factor and plenty of times in Planetos history as well as RL history a smaller army has defeated a larger one. Either way, having the last battle of the Dance be between Borros's Stormlanders and Cregan's Northmen after Borros had wiped out the remaining Black supporters from the Riverlands, Vale, and Crownlands would have made a lot more sense on multiple levels as far as I am concerned.     

[Lord Varys]

59 minutes ago, The Grey Wolf said:

On the Blackfyre Rebellions: I understand your position now a lot better. I guess all I can really say is that we'll just have to wait till a new D & E or F & B is published before we can discuss this any further given the dearth of information we have. I do agree though we should have gotten more details on the First and Fifth in TWOIAF. After all, unlike the Third and Fourth those events are not going to be depicted in a D & E story so why not give us some new material on them, at the very least a list of houses supporting each side?

I certainly would like to get a better picture of the Blackfyre Rebellion. But while we don't have that I'm not going to speculate a lot about half the noble houses of the Realm siding with Daemon Blackfyre. That is not necessary for him to draw many (formidable) warriors to his cause, especially if he had a lot of support in the Reach (and decent enough support in the Riverlands and the Stormlands).

I think we got a decent enough picture of the War of the Ninepenny Kings, though. What was lacking was a better glimpse on the many branches of the Blackfyre family tree, but that was most definitely intentional. The series should shed some more light on these people at least.

59 minutes ago, The Grey Wolf said:

On the Triarchy: I agree the beginning of the end was marked by the Gullet since the text pretty much says so, just not that the casualties of the battle should have been a direct cause of that. Again, the Triarchy warred against Corlys and Daemon for years not to mention they beat Volantis. Losing 60 ships shouldn't mean all that much to them.

Well, that would depend on the political realities of the Triarchy. How popular was the idea of interfering in Westerosi affairs on the side of the Greens? How many prominent leaders of the Triarchy (admirals, captains, generals, politicians) died in the battle? How much wealth did they capture on Driftmark and how difficult was it to divide the spoils among the various factions?

The Gullet easily enough could have provided the background which then led to the end of the Triarchy. We don't yet know when it finally went down, but I'd not be surprised if the final end only came with the downfall of the Rogares a few years later.

59 minutes ago, The Grey Wolf said:

On Tyland: My point was given that we have no proof that Lady Johanna didn't get along with her brother-in-law I don't see why she wouldn't (potentially) be willing to loan gold to Aegon II's cause. Again, Tyland can do what Tyrion is doing presently with regards to the Second Sons, promising gold on paper that he might not have now but certainly will or could acquire in the future though in Tyrion's case whether he'll keep to the terms of the contract is another discussion entirely.

Well, gold on paper isn't worth anything if you can have real gold in the Disputed Lands right now. And again, the Lannisters really had a lot of problems at that point. The Iron Throne wasn't able to help Johanna later on to deal with the Ironborn, she had to ask the Reach for help.

59 minutes ago, The Grey Wolf said:

On the army of the Reach: If I remember correctly the army was split between those who wanted to stay at Tumbleton, those who wanted to press onward in the name of Aegon II such as the Caltrops and Prince Daeron the Daring, and those who were supporters of the Two Betrayers. What happened to the remaining Green army of the Reach under the command of Lord Unwin Peake following the Second Battle of Tumbleton is unknown but it is indeed unlikely they played any further role IOTL given that Lord Unwin was able to become Hand, which I doubt he'd have been able to do had he been defeated and captured after retreating back into familiar lands.

The Caltrops didn't want to continue in the name of Aegon II because they had no idea whether Aegon II was still alive or not. They were just about killing the Two Betrayers (with the connivance and approval of Daeron the Daring who explicitly was not popular enough to command the allegiance of the entire army).

And Lord Peake marching whatever remnants of the army remained to him after Second Tumbleton strongly suggests that he lacked the strength (and the motivation) to do anything else. That looks like him trying to save face, not like him having a plan. And there is most likely a reason why he wasn't granted a place on the first Regency council. Most likely because nobody considered him a man who deserved a place on this august body. That only changed when a lot of people died early on during the Regency.

59 minutes ago, The Grey Wolf said:

On Tyland: I guess because I find it hard to imagine Aegon II would wait till after the Kingsroad to search for more men to bring to his cause rather than sooner given that by the time of his restoration the only significant force he could truly call loyal to him was that of Borros.

Well, we don't know many details on the events after the death of Rhaenyra so it is very difficult to make good guesses about those developments.

59 minutes ago, The Grey Wolf said:

On the Greens as a whole: That is one of my beefs with the Dance. That not only did the Greens lose so baldly (which makes the historiography bizarre) but that the point of no return was the Kingsroad. That battle is IMHO pure bullshit not only from a military standpoint but from a thematic and plot standpoint as well.

I don't think you can say that with the information we have on the whole thing. I find it very convincing that a stupid hothead like Borros Baratheon could greatly underestimate his opponents and thus be butchered by the enemy even if he had a numerical advantage. Keep in mind that many of those 'Lads' were veterans of the constant fighting in the Riverlands since the beginning of the Dance. They would have known how to deal with an enemy, and they might have decided where exactly to attack Borros.

59 minutes ago, The Grey Wolf said:

On Cregan's Army: So what if he had more numbers than Borros? Numbers are never the only factor and plenty of times in Planetos history as well as RL history a smaller army has defeated a larger one. Either way, having the last battle of the Dance be between Borros's Stormlanders and Cregan's Northmen after Borros had wiped out the remaining Black supporters from the Riverlands, Vale, and Crownlands would have made a lot more sense on multiple levels as far as I am concerned.     

We know that Cregan brought his army down to punish the Lannisters, Hightowers, and Baratheons for their treason. He intended for a decent portion of his men - perhaps even the majority of them - to die honorably in battle. Roderick Dustin and his men aimed for a similar end, and we see how effective people can be who do not fear death and who suicidally attack the enemy lines again and again.

I'm pretty sure Lord Boros and his men did not intend to die in battle. They fought to survive. Thus Cregan and his men most likely would have kept the upper hand, and that would have continued had they been forced to face another Green army or some sellswords.

We can actually project the outcome of the battle at the lake with that information. The clansmen make it clear that they don't care whether they live of die. They expect to die in winter, anyway, and just want to bathe in Bolton blood before they die. The Freys and Roose's men certainly have other goals and would rather survive the battle...

[Adam Yozza]

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

We can actually project the outcome of the battle at the lake with that information. The clansmen make it clear that they don't care whether they live of die. They expect to die in winter, anyway, and just want to bathe in Bolton blood before they die. The Freys and Roose's men certainly have other goals and would rather survive the battle...

This is actually a really interesting point and one I hadn't considered before. Makes me wonder if the Winter Wolves were created specifically to set up the clansmen at the lake.

[The Grey Wolf]

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Text

On the Blackfyre Rebellions: I didn't say half the noble houses but rather more than you are postulating. To get into details I think that most likely Daemon had in his pocket nearly all the Reach, a significant portion of the Riverlands, and some portions of the Vale, the Westerlands, and Stormlands, specifically a few of the more powerful and historically unruly lesser lords.

On the Triarchy: The fall of the Triarchy coincides with the Lyseni Spring so maybe but again I find it difficult to believe that losing 60 ships at the Gullet was a major blow when they fought a bloody war with Daemon and Corlys over the Stepstones for 9 years and came out fine.

On the Greens in the Reach: In that case I was misremembering and we are in agreement here.

On Tyland and Casterly Rock: You make a good point about gold on paper vs. gold in hand. On when Tyland left for Essos well we'll have to wait and see.

On the Kingsroad and Cregan: I'm sorry Lord Varys but this is something I can't agree on. From a thematic and pacing standpoint that battle is just wrong on so many levels. Furthermore, having Aegon II lose so badly and then Jaehaera die without children as well just makes the entire historiography of the Dance bonkers. Beyond that the Kingsroad is the culmination of a much worse trend of GRRM writing the Greens as military buffoons who constantly job every battle. Seriously, practically every battle they win is either through treachery or pyrrhic, with them always taking heavy casualties and losing commanders. On top of that the fact that the Lads were veterans doesn't make them winning automatic. Borros supposedly had much greater numbers and an inexperienced army can defeat a more experienced one. Just look at Waterloo. As for Cregan by the time his men marched south most of the Greens were spent so if his goal was to maximize casualties on both sides he really f***** up his timing. The end of a war is not when you arrive on the battlefield. As for the Northmen being suicidal I bring up the counterpoint that fighting to live another day is the most powerful and primordial motivator we have plus such tactics as charging enemy lines repeatedly as used by the Northmen would quickly bleed them dry and never work long-term. 

On Aegon IV (Forgot to reply in my previous post): Aegon IV's war being a joke should have made their hatred for Dorne stronger because they were denied vengeance yet again so clearly something strange was going on during the FBR. In fact one of my disappointments with TWOIAF is that we didn't get any information on whether or not there were any other attempts during Aegon IV's reign apart from that particular one. Then again TWOIAF introduces us to the Dornish Wars and then only tells us when the First happened. WTH!

[LIVIA]

On 08.01.2017 at 6:44 AM, The Grey Wolf said:

Nonetheless, my point was the fact that he was able to hold a Dornish-Stormlanders force together can be considered in part because of him and Aerys's marriage to Stormlands houses.

Actually, we don't know any single Stormlander who supported Blackfyre. We know such houses in the Vale (Sunderland), in the Riverlands (Bracken, Butterwell), in the Westerlands (Reyne), plenty of them in the Reach (Peake, Boll, Bulwer, Contayne ect), even in Dorne (Yronwood), but none of them in the Stormlands. Instead of it we know the following: 

Baelor Breakspear was wed to Dondarrion

Aerys was wed to Penrose

Elaena was wed to Lord Penrose and did the duties of the Master of Coin for him

One of the Wyldes was a Kingsguard

From Ser Barristan's words it is clear that House Selmy stayed loyal to the Targaryens

Stormlanders fought alongside Dornishmen under Baelor's command

Lord Caron shared interests with the King (it can mean nothing, of course, but still)...

 

So, it seems that the Reds were quite popular in the Stormlands.

P. S.: The Stormlands were probably more vulnerable to Dornish raids than the Reach: their border with Dorne is longer and they have less people to protect it; they don't have a natural barrier like Torrentine, while the main Dornish forces are concentrated in the east of Dorne... May be that was the reason?

 

[Lord Varys]

9 hours ago, Adam Yozza said:

This is actually a really interesting point and one I hadn't considered before. Makes me wonder if the Winter Wolves were created specifically to set up the clansmen at the lake.

I suggested something like that since TPatQ first came out. The Battle of Ice pretty seems to be modeled rather closely on the Battle of Pharsalus with Stannis and company in the position of Caesar and Roose and his allies in the position of Pompey and the Senate.

Caesar/Stannis had to win or die, but Roose's men have other options, for instance to defect to Stannis, to refuse to fight, or to suddenly avenge themselves by attacking the Freys/Boltons.

8 hours ago, The Grey Wolf said:

On the Blackfyre Rebellions: I didn't say half the noble houses but rather more than you are postulating. To get into details I think that most likely Daemon had in his pocket nearly all the Reach, a significant portion of the Riverlands, and some portions of the Vale, the Westerlands, and Stormlands, specifically a few of the more powerful and historically unruly lesser lords.

Nearly all the Reach is far too much. If that had been the case the Tyrells would have stood with the majority of their bannermen but we know it for a fact that they fought for Daeron II.

The Oakhearts standing with Daemon Blackfyre is significant, though.

Again, keep in mind that you can become a danger to the ruling king simply because of the size of your army and not because you have a lot of support in noble houses. The Blackfyre Rebellion wasn't the Dance. Daeron II's position could weaken simply by a lot of lords remaining effectively neutral or only paying lip service to the Targaryens.

8 hours ago, The Grey Wolf said:

On the Triarchy: The fall of the Triarchy coincides with the Lyseni Spring so maybe but again I find it difficult to believe that losing 60 ships at the Gullet was a major blow when they fought a bloody war with Daemon and Corlys over the Stepstones for 9 years and came out fine.

Well, we don't know how many ships they lost during the wars with Corlys and Daemon. We don't know anything about any major naval battles during those wars. The impression I got is that Corlys got Daemon's armies to the Stepstones and they mostly fought for the possession of the rocks on the islands they were then on.

8 hours ago, The Grey Wolf said:

On Tyland and Casterly Rock: You make a good point about gold on paper vs. gold in hand. On when Tyland left for Essos well we'll have to wait and see.

In addition one should also keep in mind that Tyland Lannister might not exactly have been the guy to impress the captains of the companies and convince them to fight for Aegon II. The man was a blind crippled castrate by that point, hardly the kind of person you send to treat with hard men. The Lannister name certainly should have helped with the mission, but that might not have been enough.

8 hours ago, The Grey Wolf said:

On the Kingsroad and Cregan: I'm sorry Lord Varys but this is something I can't agree on. From a thematic and pacing standpoint that battle is just wrong on so many levels. Furthermore, having Aegon II lose so badly and then Jaehaera die without children as well just makes the entire historiography of the Dance bonkers.

Why? Aegon II did prevail and kill Rhaenyra, and he was restored to the Iron Throne, explaining why the male historians remember him as the 'true king'. He was also crowned and anointed first.

You can compare this to the reign of Maegor the Cruel. The man also usurped the place of his nephew, Prince Aegon, yet Jaehaerys I never retroactively demanded that the Seven Kingdoms speak of his elder brothers Aegon and Viserys as the true and rightful kings Aegon II and Viserys I, or begin counting his reign from the day his elder brother Viserys died.

In addition, we have Aegon II's own decree denouncing Rhaenyra as a Queen Regnant. While there is a chance that Aegon III and Prince Viserys might have overturned that later on, they would only have done so, one assumes, after the Regency was over. And by then it might have been too late to change the public opinion on their royal mother.

Historiography in Westeros seems to be dependent on reality, at least to a point, and part of reality is that Aegon II was restored to the throne. Being crowned and anointed is a very important part of being a king. This is even evident in AGoT when the news of Renly's coronation at Highgarden (in comparison to Stannis' silence) makes him a very serious pretender in the eyes of Marq Piper and other Riverlords.

8 hours ago, The Grey Wolf said:

Beyond that the Kingsroad is the culmination of a much worse trend of GRRM writing the Greens as military buffoons who constantly job every battle. Seriously, practically every battle they win is either through treachery or pyrrhic, with them always taking heavy casualties and losing commanders.

That is true for both sides. And the Greens actually win some decisive victories early on in the war when Cole subdues the Crownlands and makes the successful plan to kill Meleys and Rhaenys. True, Aegon II and Sunfyre get severely injured in that war but when there is a guy the Greens as a movement were not dependent on then it is Aegon II himself...

Another story of success is Ormund Hightower's campaign. He and Prince Daeron used Tessarion very effectively. The idea of that army disintegrating after Ormund's death and the rise of the Two Betrayers in their midst is actually a very realistic setting, considering that morale quickly declined in that bloody war. Most of the people doing the actual fighting most certainly didn't care about the bloody succession. They wanted to live, rape, kill, and win themselves some spoils. And you don't exactly do that if you boldly attack some rather large dragons...

8 hours ago, The Grey Wolf said:

On top of that the fact that the Lads were veterans doesn't make them winning automatic. Borros supposedly had much greater numbers and an inexperienced army can defeat a more experienced one. Just look at Waterloo.

Sure, but there is no reason to believe Borros Baratheon was an experienced or capable commander. As far as we know he did nothing throughout the Dance until Rhaenyra's retreat allowed him to take the capital. One gets the impression he did have as much success against the Lads as Hosteen Frey is likely to have against Stannis...

8 hours ago, The Grey Wolf said:

As for Cregan by the time his men marched south most of the Greens were spent so if his goal was to maximize casualties on both sides he really f***** up his timing.

Well, he first had to bring in the last harvest. We learn as much in TWoIaF. The needs of his people in winter should come before some stupid succession struggle. And if his own people hadn't killed Aegon II the war might have continued. Cregan could have taken Casterly Rock by allying with the Ironborn or sacked and burned Oldtown to punish the Hightowers for their treason.

8 hours ago, The Grey Wolf said:

The end of a war is not when you arrive on the battlefield. As for the Northmen being suicidal I bring up the counterpoint that fighting to live another day is the most powerful and primordial motivator we have plus such tactics as charging enemy lines repeatedly as used by the Northmen would quickly bleed them dry and never work long-term.

It works short-term, though, especially if the battle such tactics are used happens to be the deciding battle of the war (which the battle at the village most likely will be). Roddy the Ruin didn't win the deciding battle with his tactics at Tumbleton but he still ensured that the Greens wouldn't win the Dance by killing Lord Ormund and his cousin. That effectively neutralized the Hightower army.

If you ride to war with the desire to actually gloriously die in battle your lines are not likely to break, and you are not likely to cease in your attacks. The enemy must have superior numbers as well as the determination to break you, or else he is going to lose (unless the commander on your side is a complete moron).

8 hours ago, The Grey Wolf said:

On Aegon IV (Forgot to reply in my previous post): Aegon IV's war being a joke should have made their hatred for Dorne stronger because they were denied vengeance yet again so clearly something strange was going on during the FBR. In fact one of my disappointments with TWOIAF is that we didn't get any information on whether or not there were any other attempts during Aegon IV's reign apart from that particular one. Then again TWOIAF introduces us to the Dornish Wars and then only tells us when the First happened. WTH!

I'm not sure we can talk all that much about those Marcher Lords demanding vengeance. Whatever vengeance they wanted was denied them by Baelor the Blessed, and they did not rebel against that king. And keep in mind that Baelor/Viserys lost his brother/nephew, effectively sharing in the losses of their subjects.

When Aegon IV took the throne Prince Daeron had already married Mariah Martell, and there was a considerable faction favoring peace at court (Daeron, the Dragonknight, Queen Naerys). The idea that the entire Realm demanded vengeance is clearly wrong.

And Aegon's joke at a war certainly could have had a devastating effect on any desire to wage a war on Dorne. Keep in mind that the Targaryens lost Dorne after Daeron I's death. People must have known that they had little chance of holding Dorne if they ever reconquered it.

What would have pissed certain people off was the power and influence certain Dornishmen (and Daeron's Martell queen) enjoyed after he took the throne. That would have given them the impression that they did not only win the war against Daeron I but also conquered the Seven Kingdoms while they themselves, who had bled for the Young Dragon, didn't get a place in the sun.

Also keep in mind @LIVIA's point. We just don't know any Stormlanders fighting for Daemon Blackfyre. One should expect some of them to have been in their camp but we don't yet know whether that was truly the case.

This ties in to this whole 'friends of the Golden Company'/Blackfyre loyalists issue thing. Many people speculate that there are still prominent Blackfyre loyalists in Westeros. I seriously doubt that. Their cause is dead and gone. That's why Varys and Illyrio use the Golden Company to restore a Targaryen to the Iron Throne.

Since there are still some Peakes with the Golden Company Lord Titus Peake and his Lannister wife might declare for Aegon, but that's not because they still have Blackfyre sympathies. The Merryweathers could also have ties to the Golden Company because Orton spend some years in exile just as Jon Connington did.

But I very much doubt that houses like the Yronwoods, Sunderlands, Costaynes, etc. still care about the Black Dragon, nearly seventy years after they last fought for a Blackfyre (no Westerosi noble house seems to have fought for Maelys on the Stepstones).

[Adam Yozza]

@LionoftheWest I just came across something in the Princess and the Queen. It states that the Arbor did in fact declare for the Greens. While I was wrong about any known battle between Redwyne and Greyjoy at the time, they did support Aegon. The reason for their absence from any battles might be because they were Green in name only? Or maybe only involved in minor skirmishes with Ironborn on the west coast that just weren't important enough to warrant mentioning?

[Lord Varys]

34 minutes ago, Adam Yozza said:

@LionoftheWest I just came across something in the Princess and the Queen. It states that the Arbor did in fact declare for the Greens. While I was wrong about any known battle between Redwyne and Greyjoy at the time, they did support Aegon. The reason for their absence from any battles might be because they were Green in name only? Or maybe only involved in minor skirmishes with Ironborn on the west coast that just weren't important enough to warrant mentioning?

There is also the chance that the Redwyne Fleet was neither particularly large nor particularly powerful at that time. Just because the Redwynes have the largest fleet of Westeros in the main series doesn't mean they had such a large fleet back then. Back then the Velaryon fleet was the greatest fleet in Westeros.

But there certainly could have been some battles involving the Redwynes we have as of yet no idea about.

[Lord Corlys Velaryon]

2 minutes ago, Adam Yozza said:

@LionoftheWest I just came across something in the Princess and the Queen. It states that the Arbor did in fact declare for the Greens. While I was wrong about any known battle between Redwyne and Greyjoy at the time, they did support Aegon. The reason for their absence from any battles might be because they were Green in name only? Or maybe only involved in minor skirmishes with Ironborn on the west coast that just weren't important enough to warrant mentioning?

I just have to say that this entire thread is amazing & I'm kicking myself for having not got back to it earlier! I'll begin replying to previous posts later/tomorrow, but I'll start with my take on this ... (NB: If anybody wants me to make the font bigger, let me know, I just loathe scrolling. And the bold is to help try & counteract the small font - & my horrible, bloated use of parenthesis).

House Redwyne indeed declare for the Greens, but as has been mentioned here multiple times, there's no information to suggest that they actually did anything for Aegon II - particularly from a naval standpoint. My guess is that although they may have provided soldiers to say the Hightower army; but they were too hesitant to sail their navy against the Velaryon fleet (for all that Corlys was famed for his exploratory, mercantile, & political brilliance; he was obviously a capable naval commander too, even at his age & he still had his nephew(?) Daeron who was likely a veteran of the Stepstones - hell Vaemond & co had only been killed or maimed 2 years before & are even more likely to have warred against the Triarchy with Daeron younger), risk leaving their defenses lowered with Dalton Greyjoy returned to the Iron Islands ~12 months before (& by all accounts already battle-hardened before 16 & preparing for war once assuming the Seastone Chair), &/or embark on the long voyage off the treacherous coastline of Dorne & then through the Triarchy-controlled Stepstones (the Arbor had no reason to believe that the Dornish or the Triarchy would not possibly engage them, believing they need to defend their realms with such a large foreign fleet in their waters, let alone be their allies until after the Gullet - & then the Stepstones descended back into anarchy anyway). Oh & of course the Blacks superiority in dragons even before the dragonseeds! And it's not like the Greens could afford a dragonrider to escort a Redwyne fleet all the way to the Narrow Sea as Rhaenys at least was watching over the Velaryon vessels in Blackwater Bay. Frankly, with all that, I wouldn't blame the Redwynes for keeping their naval strength at home!

On that though they are potentially further hampered by two things: perhaps Ser Leo Costayne & possibly (I'd say very likely) less strength historically (i.e. during the Dance). Firstly, Costayne was "Admiral of the Reach" at his death in 134AC.

I lean towards his position & presumed admiralty over all of the various warship contingents of the Reach (Arbor, Oldtown, coastal lords, Shield Islands), only being formed after the Dance & in particular with the possibility of Dalton & his Ironborn eventually pushing south, but perhaps it wasn't. Let's say it was pre-Dance & Leo was already in the top position: House Costayne declared for Rhaenyra. If Leo followed suit & especially had a sizable contingent of the overall Reach navy under his direct control at say Three Towers, he could perhaps make the likes of even the Redwyne vessels think twice about sailing off for the Greens. Also as Uplands (its lands presumably border Three Towers' & both certainly are directly across the Redwyne Strait from the Arbor) & Greyshield at least declared for the Blacks, which would give Leo extra leverage. The Hightowers don't seem to have been a proper naval power for many centuries even before the Dance & they're generally quite the cautious family besides, so I don't see them being a gamechanger for the Arbor if this situation were to actually be the case. Also, we know that the Dance was particularly bloody at sea & yet we really only know of the Gullet as such. Sure their would've been naval skirmishes & even battles against the Ironborn, but they would've been very minor & one-sided in comparison. Mayhaps the naval forces of the Reach actually fought among themselves, as their ground forces did for a while, particularly once Daeron flew Tessarion from Oldtown & NE ...

And Redwyne strength: In ASoIaF they supposedly have ~200 warships & 1k merchants ships - that's insane! And of course even going into The Winds of Winter some of these are going to be already dealt with by the Ironborn (those too few Paxter left at home) & more presumably trading all over the world. I don't think they had anywhere near that strength during the Dance. The Arbor went from perhaps being scoped out for naval strength before the Conquest when Aegon & Visenya hawked with its lord there before/after visiting Oldtown (& seemingly the Citadel for maesters, ravens, &/or the means to produce the Painted Table) to having no notable presence in the realm apart from Ser Ryam of the KG, until this briefest of mentions during the Dance. They're not mentioned during the Regent Wars (& one perhaps has to look at Leo being admiral & not a Redwyne that they might not have been an overwhelming force among their peers), nothing IIRC during the 1st BfR, & then finally only that their vines withered during the drought at the start of Aerys I's reign (when Dagon's men also raided them, because classic Ironborn). And then all of a sudden they're everywhere later in the 3rd century:

• Lord Runceford's best vintages to elites across the Narrow Sea (Pentos at least specifically).
• A betrothal for Olenna to Prince Daeron. When she was spurned, married to her fellow like that, (future?) Lord Lyonel Tyrell.
• Betrothal for Bethany to Ser Brynden Tully. Another falling through of absolutely none of their own doing, but she is married to (future?) Lord Mathis Rowan - definitely one of the top 20 most powerful & richest Houses in the Seven Kingdoms & top 5 in the Reach.
• Paxter married to Mina Tyrell, Lord Mace's sister & a cousin.
• Redwynes, perhaps including Paxter, being among the suitors of Elia &/or Oberyn Martell.
• The Arbor being a dominant naval superpower of Westeros under Paxter (Bobellion, Greyjoy's, Wot5K) at least, & I would guess the Targaryen & Tully betrothals in particular as a sign of the Redwynes growing in power & wealth.

Anyway, I'm guessing that the Redwynes have generally done very well for themselves under the Iron Throne & particularly in more recent decades:

• Reduced Ironborn threats (only Dagon for sure during all of the Targaryen dynasty) from a stronger, more unified realm.
• Greater trade opportunities as part of a fair larger kingdom, & one of several former realms where their products would be now more inclined to be purchased than local drops.
• Seemingly, no natural disasters since the Great Spring Sickness.
• Times of peace & prosperity for the most part for the Reach & the Redwynes themselves - sfa, if any, damage during the Bobellion although still "active" as military assets to the Crown, again Ironborn smashed by Paxter & Stannis, not getting overly dragged into the Wot9pK (Quellon being rather important with his 100 longships).
• The more wealth they acquire, the greater volume & quality of products they can attain to, & more vessels they can float to take out middle men & export them direct all around the Known World.
• Perhaps the trade policies of Viserys II (increasing trade across the Narrow Sea), Daeron II (looking to rule like his grandfather than father), &/or Tywin (increase trade by nobles-first philosophy & of course undoing Egg's smallfolk reforms) could further prove greatly beneficial for them.

[The Grey Wolf]

14 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

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Warning: Long post ahead.

On the Tyrells, Baelor, the FBR, Daeron I and II: I am a believer of the Leo Longthorn conspiracy. That Leo, seeing that most of the Reach was solidly behind Daemon quietly offered lip service but after the Redgrass Field attacked his disloyal and disorganized bannermen to empower himself at their expense. After all the Tyrells have the LEAST reason to support Daeron II. Leo's father or grandfather Lyonel was murdered by the Dornish as was Daeron I and they went from being the right-hand man of the king under the Young Dragon to being completely on the outs under Daeron II. Furthermore, Leo is known to have been a tourney champion famed for being the finest to ever couch a lance so why the hell would he support physically weak, bookish, pro-Dornish Daeron over Daemon who was said to be a warrior without peer and a paragon of chivalry? Beyond that how the hell did Leo not have time to gather his forces for the Redgrass Field when Daemon drew most of his support from the Reach? What's more if the Blackfyres were not sure they had the support of the majority of the Reach (and consequently the largest army in Westeros) I doubt they would have been confident enough to rebel in the first place. Finally, the Reach has every reason to oppose Daeron II. They hate the Dornish with good reason, lost the most in the Conquest of Dorne, are the center of chivalry where Lord Lyonel and Daeron I's murders would not have been looked upon nicely, and were completely kicked out of court by Daeron II. The Stormlands would likely have been the same had Daeron II not taken steps to placate them with offices and royal marriages.

As for Baelor's peace something you need to understand is that you don't just rebel because you don't like the king's policies or decisions because regardless the king is sacrosanct, which is why illegitimacy and tyranny are given as reasons for rebellion as one implies the king isn't sacrosanct because he is false and the other that he has lost his sacred status through his actions, neither of which could be used against Baelor, whose piety is famous even generations later.

As for Baelor/Viserys it doesn't seem like they mourned Daeron I all that much. In fact Baelor spat on the memory of his brother and the 60000 men who died with him by making an unconditional peace on top of his walk of penance. Daeron II then went further and salted those wounds.

As for the realm not desiring vengeance that is completely bullshit. TWOIAF clearly states that there was "outrage" in KL when news arrived of what the Dornish had done, outrage that was "swiftly directed at the Dornish hostages". Furthermore, it says that "even as his lords and council cried for vengeance" Baelor preached mercy and turning the other cheek. In addition we know that Daeron I was charismatic and well-loved with men from the Stormlands, the Reach, the Crownlands, and the North at least all fighting in his war. The idea that they were not pissed, particularly the North with its focus on guest right, which the sanctity of the peace banner is based off of and the Reach, on account of being the center of chivalry and what not, is quite simply ridiculous.

As for them realizing Dorne is unconquerable you're forgetting two things. One, not everyone is going to believe that. Two, Dorne WAS conquered and the only way they got out of it was by committing a war crime that would have brought them a second Dragon's Wroth if Baelor hadn't literally saved their asses.

Moreover, this is a medieval setting where grudges and vendettas can last generations so it should hardly be surprising that those who grew up fighting for Daeron I would pass on their grievances with Baelor and the Dornish to the generation of Daeron II.

Finally, we know that Aegon IV turned to the Reach and the Stormlands in his conflicts with his son and used "the hatred for the Dornishmen that still burned" there to suborn some of his allies and use them against Daeron II's strongest supporters so you are dead wrong on that count Lord Varys.

On the Dance: If you read my first post on this thread you would have seen that I wrote that the trend with the Greens only really starts AFTER Rook's Rest.

As for the Blacks I disagree. They never suffer crushing defeats the way the Greens do, rarely take heavy casualties, actually win some battles that are not pyrrhic or involve treachery, and NEVER lose major commanders the way the Greens consistently do in practically ever battle not to mention the Blacks always have more men, more ships, and more dragons. Even when the Two Betrayers switch sides it doesn't take long for them to form their own faction separate from the Greens.

As for the Triarchy if they could defeat Volantis and fight the Velaryons + A dragon + However many men Daemon gathered + However much gold Viserys I lent for years one battle should NOT have been an issue. Its simple common sense. Not to mention Daemon's army wouldn't have been small. The Velaryon fleet was pretty big at that point and Daemon couldn't possibly have taken the Stepstones with a tiny army even with the addition of his dragon not to mention there wouldn't have been a shortage of adventurous youths seeking glory after growing up during a time of peace and plenty.

With regards to the Redwyne I have no clue why GRRM bothered to include them declaring for the Greens if they were not going to play a prominent role a la the Triarchy, the Greyjoys, and the Velaryons. It simple makes no sense. Particularly in light of the fact that we know it was intact enough to ferry Johanna Lannister's revenge-counterattack, which shouldn't have been possible had they been fighting the Ironborn or the Velaryons, which is, you know, what the logical thing would have been for them to do in support of the Green cause.

As for the king of the Greens himself I think making him such a figurehead is highly dissatisfying from a literary perspective and only highlights how most of the main cast of the Dance are unlikeable assholes.

All in all, this discussion only reinforces my opinion that GRRM should have just released the whole account of the Dance as a small stand-alone novel rather than give us the edited mess we currently have and that he should have included more on the FBR in TWOIAF.