U.S. Politics: Alabama Jones and the Template of Doom

[OldGimletEye]

On 12/20/2017 at 5:59 PM, Tywin et al. said:

I mentioned this a few weeks ago that this bill end end up incentivize offshoring. What a joke.

Also, why did the stock market close being down a little bit after the tax plan made in through Congress? Seems kind of odd to me, especially when you consider that a lot of economists have speculated that the massive increase in stock market was based on the expectations of future tax cuts.

You made a good call then.

If the expectations of the corporate tax cut were already baked into stock valuations, then I suppose you wouldn't see a price rise. As for the reason for closing a bit down today, damned if I know. If could always figure out all the price changes I'd be really really rich. Or maybe some wall street traders found out they were going to get shellacked under the corporate tax cut. LOL.

But, as far as the overall level of the stock market. While the Trumpster will certainly tout its high valuations, I don't see it as a sign of a really healthy economy. For one, the natural rate of interest is low, to low in fact, so that's part of it. Secondly, I think a lot of the profits are because of growing market or monopoly power. Neither of those factors are really good for the economy. What I'm saying is a better economy would have lower valuations. 

[Ormond]

Here's another special election for a State Senate seat, this time in Tennessee, where there was a huge swing toward the Democrats although they didn't quite win it. The Democrat got 48.7% of the vote in a district Trump won by 40 points.

http://www.tennessean.com/story/news/2017/12/19/mark-pody-mae-beavers-elections-vacant-district-17-state-senate-seat/961431001/

http://www.wgnsradio.com/tndp-chair-statement-on-the-special-election-for-senate-17-cms-43168

[GAROVORKIN]

11 minutes ago, OldGimletEye said:

You made a good call then.

If the expectations of the corporate tax cut were already baked into stock valuations, then I suppose you wouldn't see a price rise. As for the reason for closing a bit down today, damned if I know. If could always figure out all the price changes I'd be really really rich. Or maybe some wall street traders found out they were going to get shellacked under the corporate tax cut. LOL.

But, as far as the overall level of the stock market. While the Trumpster will certainly tout its high valuations, I don't see it as a sign of a really healthy economy. For one, the natural rate of interest is low, to low in fact, so that's part of it. Secondly, I think a lot of the profits are because of growing market or monopoly power. Neither of those factors are really good for the economy. What I'm saying is a better economy would have a lower valuations. 

Do we end up facing a slowdown and deep recession within two years or sooner ?

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

17 minutes ago, OldGimletEye said:

You made a good call then.

I meant to say "could end up," so I didn't predict it, and claiming I did would really just be saying I heard some smart people talk about it and claimed the prediction as my own. Seems hollow.

18 minutes ago, OldGimletEye said:

If the expectations of the corporate tax cut were already baked into stock valuations, then I suppose you wouldn't see a price rise. As for the reason for closing a bit down today, damned if I know. If could always figure out all the price changes I'd be really really rich. Or maybe some wall street traders found out they were going to get shellacked under the corporate tax cut. LOL.

It just seems odd. I figured the market would have gone  up 200 points in the hour following the House passing the legislation, but in fact it went down.The market was in the green before it passed.

20 minutes ago, OldGimletEye said:

But, as far as the overall level of the stock market. While the Trumpster will certainly tout its high valuations, I don't see it as a sign of a really healthy economy. For one, the natural rate of interest is low, to low in fact, so that's part of it. Secondly, I think a lot of the profits are because of growing market or monopoly power. Neither of those factors are really good for the economy. What I'm saying is a better economy would have a lower valuations. 

It's not. Especially not when it was going up under Obama. I also feel like high growth isn't either, but hey, I'm no economist. 

8 minutes ago, GAROVORKIN said:

Do we end up facing a slowdown and deep recession within two years or sooner ?

Can't say, but a lot of economists think this tax cut could make the economy too hot.

[OldGimletEye]

23 hours ago, GAROVORKIN said:

Do we end up facing a slowdown and deep recession within two years or sooner ?

I don't think we'll have a recession within two years and most likely not a deep recession. But, I don't think the next two years will be anything spectacular either, although I'm sure the orange one will try to hype it up like it's the best thing ever, like he always does, and claim it's all do to his personal awesomeness.

[Mudguard]

37 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I mentioned this a few weeks ago that this bill end end up incentivize offshoring. What a joke.

Also, why did the stock market close being down a little bit after the tax plan made in through Congress? Seems kind of odd to me, especially when you consider that a lot of economists have speculated that the massive increase in stock market was based on the expectations of future tax cuts.

It's been very clear for a while now that the tax cut was going to be passed, and that only small tweaks were going to be needed to get it to the finish line, so today's news was already priced in.  Only a last minute significant change to the proposed tax cut would have caused a major swing, and that didn't happen.

[Sivin]

Donald must be a case study in values that contradict just about every traditional American position.

As he said today when announcing his bill

"It's a lot more fun to win. When you work hard and lose, that's not acceptable."

What the fuck? Just an off the cuff remark I  caught as the news headed to commercial. 

It's not even a big deal at all, who cares that Donnie doesn't appreciate the futility of a hard day's work, but the man finds weird and new ways to make me wrinkle my nose every day. 

[OldGimletEye]

23 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

Can't say, but a lot of economists think this tax cut could make the economy too hot.

I expect the FED will just raise the rate of interest in response to counter any inflation pressures it might create. The most atrocious thing about the bill is just the fact that it's handing out gobs of cash to the wealthy who don't need it. But you know, plutocrats have gotten their way this time.

Also, if the territorial provisions in the bill incentive companies to leave the US or invest elsewhere, then so much for all that additional foreign capital coming in and firing up the US economy, like the Trumpster claims.

[Sivin]

4 minutes ago, OldGimletEye said:

 But you know, plutocrats have gotten their way this time.

The fuck you mean 'this time'? 

[OldGimletEye]

23 hours ago, WinterFox said:

The fuck you mean 'this time'? 

Rick Perry time. Oooops. You're right. LOL.

[Sivin]

5 minutes ago, OldGimletEye said:

Rick Perry time. Oooops. You're right. LOL.

So how are they gonna apply this unfinished bill to tax returns in less than 3 months? That's what I don't understand.

Do I need to get an actual tax guy? I've been using Turbo Tax for years.

[OldGimletEye]

23 hours ago, WinterFox said:

So how are they gonna apply this unfinished bill to tax returns in less than 3 months? That's what I don't understand.

Do I need to get an actual tax guy? I've been using Turbo Tax for years.

My understanding is that most filers won't notice the effects until the spring of 2019. And I don't think you'll need an actual tax guy, in 2019, if Turbo Tax meets your current needs. Unless you're scheming a way to set up your income as a pass through entity or something (why not? everyone will be doing it!). Then maybe get a tax guy.

[Darth Richard II]

Haha we're fucked.