denstorebog Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 On a funny note - remember that Virginia House of Delegates that Dems were *this* close to taking when Northam won? The recount is currently going on, and the district that had the Dem down by 10 votes is currently tied. If Dems pick it up, they tie the House. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongRider Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 4 minutes ago, Fez said: Republicans really don't understand how unpopular this bill is for them. They could've let another 11 vulnerable Republicans vote against the bill and yet it seems that no one was clamoring for one of those freebies (and 10 Republicans did vote no, so it's not like the caucus was trying to be unanimous on the bill). How could they not understand this? They've been wading through protesters in DC for days, the phones been ringing off the hook and email and twitter and FB and others have been going non stop for several days. How could they not know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldGimletEye Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 23 hours ago, Fez said: Republicans really don't understand how unpopular this bill is for them. They could've let another 11 vulnerable Republicans vote against the bill and yet it seems that no one was clamoring for one of those freebies (and 10 Republicans did vote no, so it's not like the caucus was trying to be unanimous on the bill). Maybe they do understand how unpopular it is, but when push comes to shove they are going to side with Republican donor class. And maybe they think they can get away with it by a combination of 1)lying their asses off about its economic effects, 2) gerrymandered districts, 3) talking about how much they love America, and 4) subtlety playing to white resentment by talking of “makers and takers”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 10 minutes ago, denstorebog said: On a funny note - remember that Virginia House of Delegates that Dems were *this* close to taking when Northam won? The recount is currently going on, and the district that had the Dem down by 10 votes is currently tied. If Dems pick it up, they tie the House. Looks like there was an error, the Dem is actually down 1 vote right now; but the recount is not over yet. ETA: And now the Dem is up by 1 vote. It's gonna be real weird in this state if the HoD is tied, the state constitution has no tie-breaker provisions for it (the Lt. Gov only breaks ties for the state senate). Last time it happened, the HoD passed a rule that all ties in year 1 were won by Democrats, all ties in year 2 were won by Republicans (and they couldn't vote on bills to repeal ties from year 1). Not sure if that'll fly this time. Also, it means that potential court case in one of the district is gonna get real important. The Republican won by 82 votes (if I'm remembering which district this is), but at least a few hundred people received ballots intended for a different district. I wouldn't be surprised if the court orders a special election as a redo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 4 minutes ago, Fez said: Also, it means that potential court case in one of the district is gonna get real important. The Republican won by 82 votes (if I'm remembering which district this is), but at least a few hundred people received ballots intended for a different district. I wouldn't be surprised if the court orders a special election as a redo. It seems like the only possible decision. A special election in a single delegate district is a bit of a pain in the ass, but really, what else can you do, in a close race where some people were given the wrong ballot at the polls? I really hope it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bonnot OG Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Nothing gets a republican hard like fucking over poor people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The guy from the Vale Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 37 minutes ago, Fez said: Republicans really don't understand how unpopular this bill is for them. They could've let another 11 vulnerable Republicans vote against the bill and yet it seems that no one was clamoring for one of those freebies (and 10 Republicans did vote no, so it's not like the caucus was trying to be unanimous on the bill). I wish I had your optimism that this'll hurt Republicans. Now, don't get me wrong - in an upcoming fair election that would absolutely hurt them. I just fear the times of elections, even though being unfair in far too many ways already, mattering, has ended. The only way forward for Republicans is an end to American democracy, and there's too many things going on right now that point into that direction - net neutrality negated, courts packed with conservatives, delegitimation of the free press, rumblings about ending the Mueller investigation over them being too successful, massively unpopular bills being pushed through... Ryan isn't grinning like a little shit just because he got the tax bill he wanted. He's doing so because he just shored up the necessary support from his donor base for the upcoming coup of the libertarian overlordsTM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
denstorebog Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Holy shit, did Dems just take the pivotal 50th seat by 1 vote? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 17 minutes ago, denstorebog said: Holy shit, did Dems just take the pivotal 50th seat by 1 vote? Certainly looks like it: Democrat Shelly Simonds 11,608 to 11,607. Judges will certify it tomorrow, and then it's on to the legal challenge stage. No idea what Republicans will claim is the problem, but I'm fairly sure they'll come up with something. The entire control of the VA House of Delegates came down to a single vote. Any person who voted for Simonds can no longer ever say that "my vote won't matter", because your vote quite literally made the entire difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Pepper Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 1 hour ago, Nasty LongRider said: How could they not understand this? They've been wading through protesters in DC for days, the phones been ringing off the hook and email and twitter and FB and others have been going non stop for several days. How could they not know? I've been in the car for days and listening to news radio non stop. Every single Republican interviewed has said some version of 'polls are wrong' or 'the people will like it once it's implemented'. They are mostly insistant that polls are always wrong and that numbers can't be trusted. Also, I doubt they'll be punished. The worst that will happen is they get primaried by someone even worse because GOP voters have been trained to take the stupidest, most harmful path possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldGimletEye Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 23 hours ago, Dr. Pepper said: Also, I doubt they'll be punished. This is too bad, as I was really looking forward to strapping a shark fin to my back while playing Jaws music in the background at the next Republican Party meeting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 The Senate parliamentarian has found two minor Byrd rule violations in the bill. They are easily fixed, and will be before the senate votes. But it means the House will have to vote again tomorrow. Probably the only real effect is that it further cuts in to the time needed to figure out how to avoid a shutdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 1 hour ago, Nasty LongRider said: How could they not understand this? They've been wading through protesters in DC for days, the phones been ringing off the hook and email and twitter and FB and others have been going non stop for several days. How could they not know? They do know, they just don't care. As OGE and I were discussing earlier, if you're gonna get your ass kicked anyway, might as well push through something your base (in this case uberwealthy donors) will love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Which Tyler Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 1 hour ago, OldGimletEye said: Maybe they do understand how unpopular it is, but when push comes to shove they are going to side with Republican donor class. And maybe they think they can get away with it by a combination of 1)lying their asses off about its economic effects, 2) gerrymandered districts, 3) talking about how much they love America, and 4) subtlety playing to white resentment by talking of “makers and takers”. How on Earth did you manage to forget "But her emails!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldGimletEye Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 23 hours ago, Which Tyler said: How on Earth did you manage to forget "But her emails!" Oh yes, how could I forget. I shouldn't have. I guess my excuse is that I once flipped on Fox News and it did permanent damage to my brain, and now I forget stuff I shouldn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 5 minutes ago, dmc515 said: They do know, they just don't care. As OGE and I were discussing earlier, if you're gonna get your ass kicked anyway, might as well push through something your base (in this case uberwealthy donors) will love. If we look at this from a Machiavellian perspective, perhaps they’re hoping that the short term benefits of this legislation will be enough to carry them through 2020, and then they can gerrymander the country into oblivion. Most economists I’ve read have said there will be an initial sugar rush that will simulate the economy. If it lasts for a few year, it could be enough. And in the process they got what they’ve wanted for a generation, massive tax cuts for the elites on several different levels with a backdoor mechanism to force entitlement slashing. I believe that’s the gamble they’re making. And if it works, we’re all royally ******. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongRider Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 22 minutes ago, Fez said: The Senate parliamentarian has found two minor Byrd rule violations in the bill. They are easily fixed, and will be before the senate votes. But it means the House will have to vote again tomorrow. Probably the only real effect is that it further cuts in to the time needed to figure out how to avoid a shutdown. GOP congress critters, so stupid they can't even get the bill right so they have to vote twice. Clowns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThinkerX Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 I keep thinking that maybe, just maybe, the republican leadership rushed this bill through at such high speed that they accidently included a provision or three that will bite their donor's extremely hard in the bank account. Some little twist of phrase that was supposed to deleted, but got left in, or some such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 4 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said: I believe that’s the gamble they’re making. And if it works, we’re all royally ******. I really don't think so. They're fucked next November and everyone knows it. This bill may stem the tide a bit by pleasing donors and subsequently infusing cash into GOP campaigns, but that's gonna be marginal at best. Maybe they can ride the economy into 2020, but that bubble's gonna pop eventually, and when it does Trump is royally fucked - and you better bet he's gonna take the whole party down with him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldGimletEye Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 23 hours ago, Nasty LongRider said: GOP congress critters, so stupid they can't even get the bill right so they have to vote twice. Clowns. Where were the "best people" to help them out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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