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Maithanet

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About Maithanet

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    Inoffensive, but mostly useless
  • Birthday 08/17/1982

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    Washington, DC

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  1. Maithanet

    U.S. Politics: Next-ennials vs stamps

    I more or less assumed that after the Merrick Garland experience that the new norm is no President is allowed to make appointments to the SC unless his/her party also controls the Senate. Which sucks, because it is way easier for the Republicans to get to 51 in the Senate than it is for Democrats. But there's simply nothing but "precedent" to keep the Senate from just never bringing a nominee up, even if it means 4 or 7 years with a vacancy. What particularly sucks is that in all likelihood, the appellate courts and then all courts will soon follow suit. Republicans hadn't quite stripped Obama of court appointment power altogether, they just mucked things up so that it took preposterously long and Obama left office with a ton of vacancies. But there's every reason to assume that next time a Democrat is in the WH, Republicans will be even less beholden to precedent than they were for Obama.
  2. Because the three teams he's most interested in playing for are not even close to contending, and trading away assets in order to sign Butler (which is what he wants) will take them even further from a championship. Clearly his desire is to be the Big Dog in a big city NBA team, like a repeat of Carmelo on the Knicks. That raised Melo's profile for a while, but even in the best Melo year the Knicks they were never close to a championship, getting run off the court by the second best team in the East.
  3. Maithanet

    U.S. Politics: Next-ennials vs stamps

    Signs are that North Korea is losing its pariah status and rejoining the international community, while still maintaining its nuclear arsenal. That is mostly thanks to a combination of efforts from SK, China and the Trump Administration. This isn't the worst thing in the world, but it certainly isn't what Trump promised, and it is exactly what North Korea wanted. Whether that is "Trump getting played" is a matter of opinion. But the US Intelligence assessment is that North Korea is continuing it's nuclear program.
  4. Anyone who is considering trading for Butler should reconsider upon seeing that list of teams he wants to play for. Butler obviously doesn't care about winning, and why would any team want their leader to be a guy like that?
  5. Maithanet

    U.S. Politics: Next-ennials vs stamps

    Well, it's hard to say how large Spain's border with the Sahara Desert is, given that it is fictional. Perhaps the Sahara Wall will protect from immigrants of Narnia.
  6. Maithanet

    U.S. Politics: Next-ennials vs stamps

    In the past two days, Ipsos and Quinnipiac (both good firms) have come out with polls showing O'Rourke +2 and Cruz +9. Most likely the truth lies somewhere in the middle, but that Ipsos result is the first time Cruz has actually been behind in a credible poll.
  7. Maithanet

    U.S. Politics: Next-ennials vs stamps

    I would be thrilled if we could get rid of Gerrymandering alltogether. But failing that, it would be nice if there were a few states with Democrats drawing the lines to counterbalance the states that Democrats are shut out of power like TX, TN, UT, AL, etc. Democrats aren't going to have a lot of trifectas and a lot of the ones they do have are useless in redistricting (like CA and WA). With MA and MD lost causes, it looks like it's just IL and NY. It's sad that I'm hoping that the Democrats can make big wins in 2018 such that for 2022-2030, they'll only need D+3 in order to take the House, rather than D+7 we have now. This is what our democracy has been reduced to.
  8. Maithanet

    U.S. Politics: Next-ennials vs stamps

    I agree, the governor's polling the last few days has been good. I'm not as bullish as you on Ohio (it is in play, but it looks like DeWine is clearly ahead). But even without that, a pickup of FL, MI, WI, and IL, along with a hold in PA, CO and MN would be really huge. The Democrats could come out of this cycle holding the governor's mansion in 5 of the top 6 most populous states, and ten of the top 13. And that's assuming that Republicans hold GA and OH, which is by no means certain. A dream scenario could have Democrats win GA, OH and AZ, and control the state house in 13 of the top 14 (all but Texas, where Abbot is rolling). While the Democrats undoubtedly won't control the state Houses in all those states, the governor can ensure a reasonable partisan split when the new maps are drawn. I am still kind of at a loss as to how guys like Baker and Hogan can be not just ahead but almost untouchably ahead in MA and MD. Maybe people don't know that voting for them is like voting for Republicans to control the House?
  9. Ellison's case has definitely gotten national attention. And there's a very simple reason Kavanaugh's situation is getting more attention than Ellison's - Neither deputy chair of the DNC nor Minnesota Attorney General are nearly as important as a Supreme Court Justice.
  10. Yeah, I remember that article as well. Georgia is like a slightly better version of Mississippi where there are very few swing/persuadable voters, and thus even though there's a large group of Democratic voters (enough to sometimes make elections look "close"), Democrats have a lot of trouble breaking through, because there are just more Republicans, and those Republicans vote. Demographic trends are slowly making Georgia better, but it might be another ten years before it is truly in reach. Or it's possible that Abrams will break through with a surprise win in seven weeks.
  11. Maithanet

    NFL 2018 Week 1: From Wentz You Came

    I hear your cookouts are pretty great. Vontae Davis had a work thing (on a Sunday!) but he tried to make it for the end at least. Did you see him there?
  12. It's odd that some governor's races are polled so much more than others. For example, FL, MI and AZ all have 8+ polls for governor conducted in the past month, whereas GA, CO and ME have virtually nothing. I guess you could say that Maine isn't that important a state (politically), but Colorado and Georgia definitely are.
  13. Also, some really good polling results have come out for Democrats today in WV and NV. Sislak +12 in NV governor's race and Rosen +2 in the Senate race to unseat Heller. Sen. Manchin +12 in WV, plus Ojeda (D)+6 in WV-3, a district Trump won by 50 points!
  14. Yes, strong African American turnout was absolutely essential to Jones win, as was very low Republican enthusiasm for Moore. If Republicans had just picked a C+ quality candidate in the primary, they would have been able to win by 5-10 points. Georgia is a much better state that Alabama for Democrats. Alabama was R+26 and R+30 in 2012 and 2016 presidential races, where Georgia was R+12 and R+7. Atlanta is the driving force for the Democratic emergence in Georgia, the city keeps growing and with it college educated workers and minorities are making up a larger percentage of the state population. It's not purple yet - Florida and North Carolina are both slightly Republican leaning and nonetheless better opportunities for Democrats. But it's moving in that direction, and a good candidate (which Abrams looks to be) plus a Democratic enthusiasm gap might be enough to break through.
  15. If the turnout disparity is similar to what was seen in Alabama, then Georgia is in the bag. But recreating that kind of enthusiasm gap is extremely unlikely, Moore was a uniquely terrible candidate. Polling I've seen has had Abrams within the margin of error, usually down a point or two, but most everyone considers her the underdog. I'm optimistic about Gillum, he's been (slightly) ahead or tied in every poll I've seen. Gillum, Abrams and O'Rourke will all be "Rising Stars" in the democratic party if they win their respective elections. Which is exciting, the Dems need new blood.
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