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About Maithanet

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  • Inoffensive, but mostly useless
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  1. Russians in/around Lyman are either trapped or about to be trapped. This will create another hole in the line the Russians will need to plug, with less equipment than ever.
  2. One unfortunate implication of the illegal referendums is that Russia is likely to start drafting every man in Kherson and Zaporyzhia, just as they've done in dnr/lnr. Those men are likely to surrender and sabotage at every opportunity, but nonetheless, it is unfortunate that many will undoubtedly be casualties in this war.
  3. There is no reliable public source information on Ukrainian casualties in Kherson, or really much of anywhere else. So while it's possible they've taken serious casualties there, that is basically just speculation. Its possible the offensive in Kherson is running out of steam. It's possible it's ahead of schedule and the Russians collapse this week. There really isn't good information to say. We'll just have to wait and see
  4. Political pressure will mount once it is clear that mobilization has not changed the fact that Russia is losing the war. Then we will have to see if Putin is ready and able to escalate further.
  5. Yes. It probably will fail and quite possibly in spectacular fashion. But they have a decent supporting cast and if Leonard, George and Wall are all healthy in the playoffs, they will be an extremely tough out. Yes, they haven't been healthy in playoff time yet, but it could happen.
  6. All of the reasons why mass mobilization does not make sense for Putin look to be coming true. This is a huge political risk with questionable, if any, military benefit. If the military continues to crumble of the next 3 months (which I fully expect) then the situation will be much worse for Russia than it would have been without mobilization.
  7. Is it obvious? A lot needs to go right, but if George and Leonard are healthy, that team is pretty talented. They match up reasonably well with GSW and they might be the only team in the west I'd say that about.
  8. A bit of background on Russian callups. Supposedly they are calling up reservists, who have previous military experience. This sounds like more of an advantage than it is, because in most cases these men have never seen combat, many were barely trained the last time they were in the military, and often that was decades ago. Russia does not do any maintenance training to make sure that reservists maintain the skills they learned as soldiers. A man in his 40s who did a year as a conscript in the 90s is going to need extensive training to be even close to useful in Ukraine. But some videos on twitter indicate many of these troops are going to be given a 2 week "refresher" and then sent to the front. With crappy equipment and no training, they are likely to accomplish very little other than die in large numbers.
  9. That is a good piece. I've always been a fan of Wall, he didn't work out in DC, but he did everything you can expect a professional athlete to do. I hope he wins a ring someday.
  10. Ukrainians advancing in an attempt to encircle Lyman.
  11. This mobilization feels like the sequel to the 3rd Army Corp. A few months ago Russia announced the formation of the 3rd Army Corp, with some fanfare that this new unit would prove decisive somewhere. Then it became clear it was only going to be 15k men (not really a Corps), and then maybe only 10k, then perhaps more like 8k. Regardless, it was a real unit that definitely existed and started training in August. I don't know how long the Russians were planning to train them, but when the Kharkiv offensive started they were thrown into the battle, complete with pictures of trucks and towed artillery on social media. Astute observers could see that they were missing a lot of equipment you'd expect an army that size to have (like anti-aircraft weapons), and what was shown was mostly 70s era equipment out of storage. Anyways, they trained for a month and then went into battle to blunt the Ukrainian offensive and did...nothing. They didn't even win a single skirmish or slow the Ukrainians meaningfully or anything that I can find. They seemed to melt away, with some guys captured, some equipment left behind, and many successfully fleeing back to Russian lines. That was for training and equipping ~10k troops, something Russia should ABSOLUTELY be capable of doing. Now the Russians are going to try and train+equip+supply 300k or more? The experience of the 3AC does not instill confidence in this. At best these new troops will be given bad kit, and sent in as replacements to existing veteran units, where they will be have terrible morale and brutal casualties. A small fraction of them might survive long enough to learn to be decent soldiers in a few months time. But if the existing Russian units are already losing (and they are), this holds little potential to change the dynamic.
  12. The point of using protesters as cannon fodder is not to get good soldiers, it's to punish and discourage protesting. There's a reason why the anti-war protests are almost entirely women.
  13. NY AG suing Trump, his family and the Trump organization for fraud.
  14. It was a bafflingly stupid decision to only rush 2 against Murray on that 2 point conversion. One of the guys is a DT and clearly not fast enough to catch him anyway. Murray + 5 linemen against 2 pass rushers could probably hold the ball for a full minute without being tackled. You can definitely see that both the guys chasing him are completely gassed by the end of the play. I guess they rushed 3 initially, but I think the third guy must have dropped into coverage because he drops out of the screen after a couple seconds.
  15. Individual units have already come to that conclusion, and I hope we see a lot more around Kherson in the next couple of weeks. But make no mistake, Putin's speech is an escalation because he can see that Russia is losing. The changes he's implementing are more likely to slow the decline of Russian forces rather than actually strengthen them. We can only hope that at some point Putin stops escalating, because he is running out of options short of nuclear war.
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