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Maithanet

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About Maithanet

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    Inoffensive, but mostly useless
  • Birthday 08/17/1982

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  1. Maithanet

    NBA 2018: Fear the Deer

    I mean, he never had a "#1 pick overall" kinda good game, but he did have a few good games. 19 points on 9 shots off the bench for Cleveland vs Kings 20 points on 14 shots off the bench for Minnesota vs Spurs 15 points on 10 shots, plus 8 rebounds for Cleveland vs Pelicans But yeah, those are very much "valuable role player" kinda games, which is pretty embarrassing since those are his best ever games. However, I would like to note that Jamarcus Russell had zero good games in either 2007 or 2009, and maybe two in 2008. I mean, he's not the worst NFL quarterback this century, that's Nathan Peterman, followed by Jimmy Clausen. But he's still far worse than a replacement level backup quarterback, let alone a starter.
  2. Maithanet

    NBA 2018: Fear the Deer

    Tywin is right that "worst" pick really can be defined at least three ways: 1. The player is terrible, they obviously lack the skills to be a star (or even a decent) player (Jamarcus Russell). There were some people who objected to picking Russell #1 overall, but that's true almost every year. The truth is there were a ton of scouts who LOVED him. I don't remember who it was...(McShay, maybe?) who said that Russell was by their metric the #1 rated quarterback they'd ever scouted. So this is the case of the conventional wisdom just being wrong wrong wrong and favoring a guy who sucks. 2. The player's career was terrible, much worse that other players chosen after them (Greg Oden) Greg Oden hasn't been good at all, but he was undeniably an excellent prospect. He had red flags for health, and those developed into essentially the worst case scenario for him, but nobody could have known that at the time. The only way you could call Oden the worst pick ever if with the benefit of hindsight, even though the difference between Oden and Durant is vastly bigger than the difference between Bennett and Victor Oladipo or Otto Porter. 3. The player is terrible and had no business being drafted #1 overall (Anthony Bennett) In comparison, even in a weak draft, Bennett was a bad choice. He was at the time considered a high floor, low ceiling player, (which is not really what you want in a #1 pick), and that evaluation proved to be wrong, since he wasn't even good enough to be an effective rotation player. Maybe if he'd been drafted #9 overall and never expected to be a star he could have become at least a decent role player, but as the #1 overall, he was ruined.
  3. Can't Parliament force another referendum? Isn't that relatively likely, even if whoever takes over after May refuses to call one? I would think that the majority of Parliament would be very concerned about driving off the cliff of hard Brexit when they are undoubtedly going to be blamed for the fallout.
  4. Maithanet

    US Politics: Paradise Lost

    The 400k number is the number of black ex-cons. The number of total ex-cons who were reinfranchised is something like 1.4 million. This WaPo Article takes a stab at it, although I don't like some of the assumptions they make. They added a caviat the article at the end that ex-cons vote very infrequently (16% for black voters, 12% for all others). This would mean approximately 64k new black voters and 120k new white/latino/other voters. So of those ~180k new voters, who many votes might the Democrats pick up? It's hard to really say, but something on the order of 20-30k sounds right. Which would make this incredibly close election even closer, and the 2018 result might see a split decision with Nelson and Desantis both winning very narrowly.
  5. Maithanet

    NFL 2018 IV: A Hue, A Cry and now Goodbye

    I don't think Bell's dominance is anything like unquestioned. He's established himself as one of the best running backs in the league, but there are at least five guys that might be just as good or better than him, and the dropoff between the best and the 10th best running back isn't steep. It is unusual for an all-pro to hit the open market, but hardly unheard of.
  6. Maithanet

    US Politics: Paradise Lost

    It really depends on whether they stay in the minority or not. Being GOP minority leader is really easy, just oppose everything the Democrats do. But if they take the majority again, then yes, they're growing more ungovernable by the day.
  7. Maithanet

    US Politics: Paradise Lost

    Since 1998 the population has grown by 7 million people. I don't know how much of that is immigration from other states/countries vs organic growth of people having babies, but that's approximately the population of Massachusetts. And FYI, if the states of Massachusetts and Texas were combined into one horrible abomination of a state, it would have gone to Trump in 2016 by approximately just over 1%, but Beto would have won easily.
  8. Maithanet

    US Politics: Paradise Lost

    Ehh, sort of. If that growth in Democratic voters in CA was instead split evenly between CA, TX and FL, the electoral college would be handing the presidency to Democrats every year.
  9. Maithanet

    NFL 2018 IV: A Hue, A Cry and now Goodbye

    Bell is really challenging the question of whether it is the age or the mileage of running backs that causes them to slow down faster than other NFL positions. I've no doubt if a guy like Jamaal Charles had taken 5 years off instead of playing in the NFL he'd still be going strong at 31, instead of nearly out of the league (apparently he is a backup in Denver?) Bell is betting that NFL teams value mileage over years, and therefore taking a year off with no NFL collisions means that he's more valuable than he would be otherwise. I've no doubt that NFL teams are considering both years and mileage, so it's hard to say if this really makes sense or not.
  10. Maithanet

    US Politics: Paradise Lost

    Is it? 1/8th of the country lives in California, and CA is overwhelmingly democratic. That seems like about what it ought to be.
  11. Maithanet

    Dating - I love the way you swipe

    I have no idea how duckface caught on. It's like "Look, I'm doing this thing which makes me less attractive!"
  12. Maithanet

    US Politics: Paradise Lost

    The compromise I expect to see is that most of the Democrats who pledged not to support Pelosi will abstain from voting, rather than voting against her. This would mean that Pelosi only needs the support of more Democrats than the Republican caucus, which would be something like 203 or so. That would allow 25-30 Democrats to get away with not officially supporting her. Now, if there's a few die hards like Moulton who will definitely vote no, not just abstain, then that number goes down, but nonetheless the math is there. I'm a little disappointed, there are so many women in the Democratic Caucus, I had really hoped that one of them would want to step into the limelight and challenge Pelosi. But it's looking more and more like that isn't going to happen. I still think that the Democrats always need to make sure they have some youngish people in prominent roles, much more so than Republicans do.
  13. Maithanet

    US Politics: Dead Pimps Need Not Apply

    Plus, there is not a single liberal in America who remembers the 2016 election fondly. Why would we want a sequel?
  14. Maithanet

    US Politics: Dead Pimps Need Not Apply

    To me, I don't expect Clinton to run, because she's smart enough to know that her moment has passed, and there's no path for her to win the primary. So whether she "wants" to run again isn't really relevant.
  15. Maithanet

    US Politics: Dead Pimps Need Not Apply

    It's interesting, but the Senate map is looking increasingly horrifying, IMO. If Ohio and Iowa are moving towards more red than purple (and I agree, all signs say they are), then it is looking more and more likely that we're going to be in a situation where a Democratic President is going to make no judicial appointments whatsoever over a 4 or 8 year term, and Republicans will support their Senators in that effort. Let's rank the states by Cook Partisan Index. If you assume Democrats will win all 40 seats from the 20 most liberal states (at the moment they have 38, due to CO and ME) then Democrats need to have at least 10 senators from this group of "purple" states: NH, PA, WI, FL, NC, AZ, IA, OH, AZ, GA. Democrats winning a few of those is totally doable. At the moment they hold 7 of the 20. Winning and holding ten or eleven of them? Pretty damn hard. Republicans haven't had to sweat to hold a GA seat in decades. Democrats just lost a Florida Senate seat in a great year for them. I really worry about the implications of this given how warlike Mitch McConnell has made the Senate.
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